Evening Wrap: ASX 200 steady as stronger rare earths and iron ore stocks offset weakness in health and energy

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 3.9 points lower, down 0.04%.

The ASX 200 barely moved as the market entered a holding pattern ahead of Thursday's US-Iran ceasefire expiry, with investors rotating out of oil and gas stocks into critical minerals and iron ore stocks. Six sectors finished higher, led by consumer staples and real estate, but energy's continued retreat was enough to keep the benchmark pinned just below flat.

In stock specific news:

• DroneShield (DRO) (+5.5%) — the Australian government announced it would more than double investment in counter-drone capability for the ADF, allocating up to $7 billion over the next decade under the Integrated Investment Program

• MA Financial (MAF) (+3.7%) — reported a 44% year-on-year increase in assets under management to $14.8 billion in the March quarter, driven by expansion in private credit, real estate, and alternative funds

• Rio Tinto (RIO) (+0.8%) — March quarter copper production came in 4–6% ahead of estimates, with iron ore production holding up despite a cyclone

• Mineral Resources (MIN) (+0.8%) — priced a US$1.3 billion dual-tranche senior unsecured notes offering to refinance existing debt, delivering approximately $48 million in annual finance cost savings and reducing its weighted average cost of debt from 8.4% to 7.4%

• HUB24 (HUB) (-8.3%) — March quarter net inflows missed expectations by 8%, driven by weaker gross flows, a one-off institutional withdrawal, and higher-than-expected negative market movements

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 3.9 points lower at 8,949.4, 0.43% from its session low and 0.30% from its high. Despite the narrow slip in the benchmark, in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers still managed to beat decliners by 169 to 106.

Consumer Staples (XSJ) (+0.7%) was the day's best performer as defensive inflows helped stalwarts Endeavour Group (EDV) (+1.5%), Woolworths (WOW) (+0.9%), and Coles (COL) (+0.7%) to gains.

Elsewhere in the sector, a positive note from Macquarie flagging supportive growing conditions in Victoria and NSW helped agricultural stocks — GrainCorp (GNC) (+2.1%), Cobram Estate Olives (CBO) (+1.1%), Bega Cheese (BGA) (+0.8%), and Elders (ELD) (+0.4%) were all stronger.

Real Estate (XPJ) (+0.5%) continued to benefit from the gradual easing of benchmark bond yields, which makes the income streams of property trusts more attractive by comparison. The sector is also playing catch-up to a strong two-week run in its US counterpart. Centuria Capital (CNI) (+3.5%), Cromwell Property (CMW) (+1.2%), and Vicinity Centres (VCX) (+1.2%) were among the movers. Goodman Group (GMG) (+0.7%) also edged higher.

Information Technology (XIJ) (+0.4%) extended what is shaping into a six-session winning streak, though the pace has cooled from last week's burst. The Nasdaq's recent run stalled overnight, and local tech followed suit with a more selective session. Codan (CDA) (+4.6%), Objective Corporation (OCL) (+3.1%), and Macquarie Technology (MAQ) (+3.1%) were the standouts. Xero (XRO) (+1.0%) and Megaport (MP1) (+2.3%) also gained.

Utilities (XUJ) (+0.3%) edged up modestly, with AGL Energy (AGL) (+0.9%) and Origin Energy (ORG) (+0.5%) both firmer.

Energy (XEJ) (-0.9%) was the worst sector on the board as Brent crude fell 1.6% to US$93.91/bbl and Newcastle coal futures dropped a further 1.6% to $120.90/t, with the rotation out of last quarter's energy winners continuing.

Oil and gas names bore the brunt — Beach Energy (BPT) (-2.5%), Woodside Energy (WDS) (-1.8%), and Santos (STO) (-1.5%) were all lower, and Viva Energy (VEA) (+0.9%) only partially recovered from Monday's 9% collapse.

Coal stocks, however, ran counter to the sector trend, with both Whitehaven Coal (WHC) (+3.8%) and Yancoal Australia (YAL) (+3.8%) advancing sharply, with New Hope Corp. (NHC) (+2.2%) also firmer. Uranium names similarly bucked the sector's headline loss, with Deep Yellow (DYL) (+2.5%) and NexGen Energy (NXG) (+2.0%) both gaining.

The Gold Sub-Index (XGD) (-0.5%) slipped as COMEX gold futures eased 0.4% to US$4,809/oz. Alkane Resources (ALK) (-4.0%) was the sharpest faller, with Northern Star Resources (NST) (-0.8%) and Newmont (NEM) (-0.7%) also lower.

Health Care (XHJ) (-0.4%) continued its stubborn run of underperformance — the worst-performing major ASX sector over the past 12 months by a considerable margin (down 27% on a rolling 12-month basis). There was no fresh catalyst today; the sector simply continues to miss out on the rotational bounces seen elsewhere. Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX) (-1.9%), Pro Medicus (PME) (-1.8%), and Cochlear (COH) (-1.6%) all declined.

Resources (XJR) (-0.3%) finished slightly lower at the sector level, masking meaningful divergence underneath. Iron ore names outperformed, with SGX iron ore futures unchanged at US$106.80/t — Champion Iron (CIA) (+2.9%), Rio Tinto (RIO) (+0.8%), and Mineral Resources (MIN) (+0.8%) all gained.

Critical minerals and rare earths stocks were also notably strong, with NdPr prices in China rising 1.7% to 816,500 CNY/t lifting Arafura Rare Earths (ARU) (+4.8%), WA1 Resources (WA1) (+4.2%), and Iluka Resources (ILU) (+1.5%). Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) (-2.1%) was a notable exception, as the company's March quarter results showed record revenue of $265 million, up 115%, but NdPr production of 1,996 tonnes came in well short of the 2,200-tonne consensus estimate, with total rare earth oxide production also missing forecasts.

Lithium stocks were the drag, with GFEX lithium carbonate futures falling 3.1% to 173,800 CNY/t weighing on Pilbara Minerals (PLS) (-2.5%), Develop Global (DVP) (-1.8%), Elevra Lithium (ELV) (-1.5%), and IGO (IGO) (-0.6%).

Financials (XFJ) (-0.1%) were marginally lower, with the big banks trading in opposite directions. ANZ (ANZ) (-1.7%) and Commonwealth Bank (CBA) (-0.3%) declined while Westpac (WBC) (+0.6%) and National Australia Bank (NAB) (+0.5%) partially recovered from their recent heavy losses. HUB24 (HUB) (-8.3%) was the sector's sharpest faller after its quarterly inflows miss.

In other commodities moves, COMEX silver futures fell 1.1% to US$79.17/oz and copper futures eased 0.3% to US$6.082/lb, while SGX Australian Premium Coking Coal futures were unchanged at $225.50/t.

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

Nasdaq Composite Index

Analysis

That’s the first down day on the Comp since it’s 30 March low point of 20690 — breaking a 13-day winning streak.

And it was hardly a down day — the candle still showed net-excess demand (long lower shadow, close very near the session high).

Not really a down day at all!

But, for us, the lower high and lower low compared to Friday’s session sets Friday’s high of 24520 as a peak — or a point of supply as we like to say.

It also starts the ‘dink’ which I’ve been waiting so long for: the manifestation in the price action of some credible supply — which is now to be carefully scruntised for size and motivation — as too will the demand side’s eventual reply.

Which party shows a greater desire to action their plans!? 🤷

The shallower the pullback from 24520, the faster the latent supply created at it is consumed — and the greater the showing of demand side motivation versus supply side opposition.

Those are words. In pictures, we'll see white-bodied candles and or those downward pointing shadows. The longer these candle traits — the greater the motivation among the demand side = greater FOMO ✅ — as much as it does a lack of willingness of the supply side to engage = HOFU ✅.

The corollary will be equally informative! Long black-bodied candles and or those with upward pointing shadows, would signal a far more motivated supply side response, as much it does an exhausted demand side.

In this scenario, BTD fails, FOMO and HOFU are quashed, instead replaced with: "Oof… better take some profits here / get some risk off the table at these fantastic prices."

The market will tell us. The candles will tell us. We must simply remain patient and listen! 👂+ 👂 = ✅

In the meantime, the broader technicals show nothing but dominant demand side control… and as such, risk allocations may reflect this.

• ST trend ribbon = ⬆️ + price is above the ST trend ribbon + short term trend ribbon is acting as a zone of dynamic supply. ✅

• LT trend ribbon = ⬆️ + price is above the ST trend ribbon + short term trend ribbon is acting as a zone of dynamic supply. ✅

• Price action = rising peaks and rising troughs = demand reinforcement and supply removal = FOMO + HOFU + BTD. ✅

• Candles are predominantly demand-side in nature (i.e., white-bodied and or downward pointing shadows) = pervasive programmed buy orders dominant + FOMO + HOFU + BTD. ✅

View

2/3RP (RP = Risk Position — it reflects my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in US stocks. So 1/2RP is 50%, 2/3RP is 67% and FRP is 100% 🪣). I'm waiting to assess this dink before committing to FRP.

Key levels

There are no key supply zones to contend with. The old all-time high supply zone of 23722-24020 will likely act as a short term zone of demand, however the short-term trend ribbon (presently 22795-22982) is now the key zone of demand. If the price closes back below this range, the supply-side is very likely back in control of the Comp's price.

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Analysis

Sometimes it's good when nothing happens. Like today. You have to admit that for proponents of the ChartWatch model — today's suprise factor is exactly zero.

It's exactly what we would have expected from today's opening leads (i.e., overseas stocks, bonds and commodities markets moves), and given the prevailing demand side controlled technicals.

With nothing changed from our prior thesis, there's very little to add here.

The candles, price action, trends and volume all continue to point to demand side control of the S&P/ASX200's, aka The Old Tin Pot's, price. That's the Analysis.

As a result, we Accept the MOTN outcome is 📈.

Act is below... 👇

View

Still not enough here for me to budge from my current 1/2RP. But, given the broader techincals are very constructive, it would only take one strong demand side candle for me to commit to a move to 2/3RP 🪣 (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in Australian stocks will increase from the present 50% to 67%).

Key levels

9201, the all time high, is the key point of supply. Below it there likely remains a degree of trepidation among market participants. A close above the last peak at 9022 would be constructive.

8889 is shaping as an important short term point of demand, but the short-term trend ribbon (presently 8804-8828) remains the key zone of demand. If the price closes back below this range, the supply-side is very likely back in control of the OTP's price.

(Glossary of acronyms! MOTN: More Often Than Not | FOMO: Fear Of Missing Out | HOFU: Holding On For Upside | BTD: Buy The Dip | STR: Sell The Rally | RP: Risk Position)

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major economic data releases in our time zone today

Wednesday

• 00:00 USA Fed Chair-Designate Warsh Speaks (Due to testify on his nomination as the Federal Reserve Chairperson before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs)

• 00:00 USA March Pending Home Sales (+0.0% m/m forecast vs +1.8% m/m in February)

Thursday

• 09:00 AUS April Flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

  • Manufacturing: was 49.8 in March

  • Services: was 46.3 in March

• 09:00 USA April Flash PMIs

  • Manufacturing: 52.5 forecast vs 49.8 in March

  • Services: was 50.1 forecast vs 46.3 in March

Friday

• No major economic data scheduled for release on this day

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +33.3% Viridis Mining and Minerals (VMM) – No news 🤔, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +9.2% Lindian Resources (LIN) – No news since yesterday's Kangankunde Secures Fuel And Cost Certainty, general strength across the broader Rare Earths & Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +8.1% Brazilian Rare Earths (BRE) – No news, general strength across the broader Rare Earths & Critical Minerals sector today.

• +7.7% Artrya (AYA) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.5% Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) – No news, general strength across the broader Rare Earths & Critical Minerals sector today.

• +6.5% Southern Cross Gold (SX2) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +5.5% Droneshield (DRO) – No news, Aus Govt announcement in increased funding into counter-drone measures for Aus military, general strength across the broader Defence sector today.

• +5.1% Electro Optic Systems (EOS) – No news, general strength across the broader Defence sector today.

• +4.8% Arafura Rare Earths (ARU) – No news, general strength across the broader Rare Earths & Critical Minerals sector today.

• +3.8% Whitehaven Coal (WHC) – No news, general strength across the broader Coal sector today.

• +3.8% Yancoal Australia (YAL) – Quarterly Activities Report - 1Q 2026, general strength across the broader Coal sector today.

• +3.1% Liontown (LTR) – General strength across the broader Rare Earths & Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -8.3% Hub24 (HUB) – HUB24 Q3 FY26 Market Update.

• -6.2% 4DMEDICAL (4DX) – Continued negative response to yesterday's GSK contract, UK clearance for CTVQ, and ASX 200 inclusion.

• -5.5% Bapcor (BAP) – No news, downgraded to trim from hold at Morgans, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, one of the most Featured (highest conviction) stocks in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.0% Alkane Resources (ALK) – No news, general weakness across the broader Gold sector today.

• -3.9% SKS Technologies (SKS) – No news, pulled back after yesterday's sharp rally due to SKS expands Data Centre contract to $210M.

• -2.8% Amplitude Energy (AEL) – Continued negative response to yesterday's Q3 FY26 Quarterly Report, general weakness across the broader Energy sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -2.5% Beach Energy (BPT) – No news, general weakness across the broader Energy sector today.

• -2.5% PLS Group (PLS) – No news, general weakness across the broader Lithium sector today.

Broker Moves

AIC Mines (A1M)

• Retained at speculative buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.75

Amplitude Energy (AEL)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.70

• Downgraded to speculative buy from buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $2.84 from $3.00

• Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $2.15 from $2.18

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.70 from $2.75

Australian Finance Group (AFG)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.05

Atlas Arteria (ALX)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $4.80

Amotiv (AOV)

• Retained at accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $7.54

ARB Corporation (ARB)

• Downgraded to accumulate from buy at Morgans; Price Target: $22.04 from $31.85

Arena REIT (ARF)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.75 from $4.00

Accent Group (AX1)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $1.25 from $1.75

Artrya (AYA)

• Initiated at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $6.10

Bapcor (BAP)

• Downgraded to trim from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $0.61

Baby Bunting Group (BBN)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.30 from $4.20

BHP Group (BHP)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $52.00

BWP Trust (BWP)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.10 from $4.15

Charter Hall Group (CHC)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $26.89 from $27.75

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $24.50

Centuria Industrial REIT (CIP)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.35 from $3.59

Collins Foods (CKF)

• Initiated at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $10.80

Charter Hall Long Wale REIT (CLW)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.10 from $4.35

Centuria Capital Group (CNI)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.05 from $2.40

Centuria Office REIT (COF)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.00 from $1.12

Charter Hall Retail REIT (CQR)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.20 from $4.35

Catalyst Metals (CYL)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $10.50

Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP)

• Initiated at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $18.00

Dexus (DXS)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.47 from $6.37

Elders (ELD)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.50 from $8.60

Flight Centre Travel Group (FLT)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $14.50 from $16.95

Fortescue (FMG)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $20.40

Genesis Minerals (GMD)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $7.50 from $7.95

Goodman Group (GMG)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $36.15 from $36.73

Graincorp (GNC)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.75 from $6.60

GPT Group (GPT)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $5.83 from $6.13

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $5.40

Guzman Y Gomez (GYG)

• Initiated at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $22.10

HealthCo Healthcare and Wellness REIT (HCW)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $0.70 from $0.73

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.35 from $1.45

HMC Capital (HMC)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.80 from $3.35

HUB24 (HUB)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $104.70

Hazer Group (HZR)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.70

Kelsian Group (KLS)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $5.50

LendLease Group (LLC)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.89 from $4.80

Light & Wonder Inc. (LNW)

• Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $193.00 from $192.00

Mineral Resources (MIN)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $66.00

Many Peaks Minerals (MPK)

• Retained at speculative buy at Morgans; Price Target: $2.48 from $1.92

National Australia Bank (NAB)

• Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $40.10 from $41.71

• Retained at sell at Jarden; Price Target: $30.00

• Retained at neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $43.90 from $46.10

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $42.00 from $44.00

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $39.30

• Retained at sell at Morgans; Price Target: $34.56 from $37.27

• Upgraded to lighten from sell at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $37.00

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $50.50

Navigator Global Investments (NGI)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.17

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $2.97 from $2.98

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.50 from $3.30

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $3.60 from $3.50

Northern Star Resources (NST)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $24.35

Nufarm (NUF)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.70

NEXTDC (NXT)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $19.00

• Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $32.29 from $31.45

• Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $16.60

• Retained at overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $18.00

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $18.30 from $20.80

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $22.55

Orthocell (OCC)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.24 from $1.15

Pantoro Gold (PNR)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $7.00

Peter Warren Automotive Holdings (PWR)

• Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $1.24 from $1.65

Qube Holdings (QUB)

• Retained at hold at CLSA; Price Target: $5.20

• Retained at neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $5.00

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.20

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $4.40 from $4.50

Region Group (RGN)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.30 from $2.40

Rio Tinto (RIO)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $160.00

South32 (S32)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $5.20

Scentre Group (SCG)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.41 from $4.71

SiteMinder (SDR)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $7.15 from $7.90

Sea Forest (SEA)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.15

Smartgroup Corporation (SIQ)

• Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $9.25

Serko (SKO)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $3.50

SKS Technologies Group (SKS)

• Retained at accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $6.70 from $5.10

Super Retail Group (SUL)

• Downgraded to hold from accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $12.90 from $17.00

Southern Cross Gold Consolidated (SX2)

• Initiated at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $12.50

Symal Group (SYL)

• Initiated at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $3.50

Technology One (TNE)

• Downgraded to neutral from buy at Jarden; Price Target: $30.00

Tesoro Gold (TSO)

• Initiated at speculative buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $2.80

Vicinity Centres (VCX)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.63 from $2.68

Viva Energy Group (VEA)

• Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $2.25 from $2.15

• Retained at neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $2.60 from $2.50

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.40 from $3.50

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.59

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $2.50

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $2.65 from $2.70

WEB Travel Group (WEB)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $5.25 from $6.15

Worley (WOR)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $13.70 from $15.00

• Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $11.60 from $12.20

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $17.50 from $19.00

Waypoint REIT (WPR)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.50 from $2.70

Wisetech Global (WTC)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $78.75 from $83.75

Scans