Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 slips, Nasdaq snaps 13-day win streak

ASX 200 futures are up 48 pts (+0.53%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• US indices mostly lower, but off worst levels

• S&P 500 (-0.24%) bounced off session lows of -0.58%, this follows a historic 12.3% rally in 13 days (the second fastest rebound rally since 1950)

• Nasdaq snapped a 13-day win streak, which was the longest stretch of gains since 1992

• A relatively uneventful and cautious session as US-Iran tensions ratcheted back up over the weekend, offset by mechanical support from systematic strategies, solid Q1 earnings and a pickup in M&A activity

• Apple CEO Tim Cook to step down after 15-year tenure, John Ternus named as incoming CEO

Let's dive in.

Overnight Summary

Tue 21 Apr 26, 8:20am (AEST)

Name	Value	% Chg
Major Indices
S&P 500	7,109	-0.24%
Dow Jones	49,443	-0.01%
NASDAQ Comp	24,404	-0.26%
Russell 2000	2,793	+0.58%
Country Indices
Canada	34,360	+0.04%
China	4,082	+0.66%
Germany	24,418	-1.15%
Hong Kong	26,361	+0.77%
India	78,520	+0.03%
Japan	58,825	+0.60%
United Kingdom	10,609	-0.55%

Name	Value	% Chg
Commodities (USD)
Gold	4,828.76	-0.10%
Copper	6.04	-1.09%
WTI Oil	89.61	+6.87%
Currency
AUD/USD	0.7179	+0.01%
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin (USD)	76,159	+2.82%
Ethereum (AUD)	3,238	+2.78%
Miscellaneous
US 10 Yr T-bond	4.25	+0.09%
VIX	18.87	+7.95%

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 lower, off worst levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks finished lower but off worst levels  

• Nasdaq snapped its 13-day win streak, the longest stretch of daily gains since 1992 – if the Nasdaq defied expectations to achieve a 14th straight gain, it would’ve matched a feat last witnessed in 1987

• Small-cap Russell 2000 bucked the trend, closing at a third straight all-time high

• Breadth was positive, with the Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.32%) outperforming the cap-weighted index by 56 bps

• A relatively defensive and cautious session after a big three-week rally for Wall Street, volatile US-Iran tensions weighed on markets but peace process still seems to be moving in the right direction

• Market continues to be buoyed by systematic strategies re-risking, alongside solid Q1 earnings (solid bank earnings, resilient consumer theme, still-surging AI demand) and pickup in M&A activity 

• VIX up ~8% to near 18.8, reflecting renewed geopolitical risk premium after US Navy seized Iranian-flagged vessel and Iran reversed Hormuz reopening (YF)

• Earnings beats delivering smallest post-print pops since early 2025, with 28 S&P 500 stocks that beat expectations outperforming by just 0.85% on average, below the 1.2% long-term average (BBG)

• Morgan Stanley cuts 2H26 gold target to US$5,200/oz from bull-case US$5,700, citing energy supply shock reducing Fed rate cut hopes has hurt safe-haven appeal (CNBC)

ENERGY

• Massive fire breaks out at Pachpadra refinery complex in India, a day before Modi's scheduled inauguration, 9Mtpa capacity, blaze contained with no reported casualties (TF)

• No ship transits recorded through Strait of Hormuz on Sunday per Bloomberg tanker tracking data, at least 13 oil tankers plus LNG carriers abandoned departure attempts and returned to Gulf waters (DNE)

IRAN

• Trump says he's unlikely to extend two-week ceasefire, Vance headed to Pakistan for Tuesday talks (BBG)

• Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei says Tehran has "no plans" for next round of talks, accuses US of lacking "seriousness in pursuing a diplomatic process" (NPR)

• Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrive in Islamabad for potential second round of Iran negotiations (CNN)

• Strait of Hormuz traffic briefly picked up before slowing down again after weekend attacks (CNBC)

• Xi Jinping warns Strait of Hormuz must remain fully open for commercial vessels, his most explicit comments on the waterway as US-Iran tensions escalate (CNN)

STOCKS

• Apple names hardware chief John Ternus as next CEO effective September , ending Tim Cook's 15-year tenure, Cook to become executive chairman (BBG)

• Bernstein upgrades Boeing to Outperform from Market perform, citing the plane maker is "making the progress it needed for the growth trajectory" (CNBC)

• Adobe releases CX Enterprise, an AI agent platform to automate digital marketing (WSJ)

• Jersey Mikes confidentially files IPO, would be first restaurant offering since Black Rock Coffee Bar in September (CNBC)

• Polymarket considering raising US$400m in funding at US$15bn valuation, same as last month's valuation (BBG)

• Eli Lilly agrees to acquire biotech company Kelonia Therapeutics for US$7bn (CNBC)

• USA Rare Earth acquiring Brazilian miner Serra Verde in US$2.8bn cash and stock deal (FT)

TARIFFS & TRADE

• US Customs and Border Protection launches tariff refund claims portal, though analysts and trade lawyers skeptical that refunds will come through quickly (CNBC)

• Trump threatens additional 50% tariff on China if Beijing delivers air defense systems to Iran, ahead of scheduled May 14-15 summit with Xi Jinping in Beijing (CNBC)

CENTRAL BANKS

• PBOC kept benchmark lending rates unchanged for 11th straight month on Monday, one-year LPR held at 3.0% and five-year at 3.5%, as policymakers weigh Middle East war fallout against resilient Q1 growth (CNBC)

• Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh to face Senate Banking Committee confirmation hearing Wednesday, prepared remarks say "Fed must stay in its lane" and warn independence is at risk when Fed strays into fiscal policy (CNBC)

• Bank of Canada signals it will look through initial inflation spike tied to Iran war but act to ensure higher gas prices don't become longer-term inflation, rate decision due April 29 (BNN)

ECONOMY

• Canada March CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year, up from 1.8% in February but below 2.5% ests, with gasoline prices up 5.9% year-on-year due to Iran war oil shock, core CPI accelerated to 2.5% (FX)

• Germany March producer price index rose 2.5% month-on-month, sharp turnaround from -0.5% drop in February, signaling intensifying factory-gate cost pressures (FX)

ASX TODAY

• BHP and JV partner Mitsubishi to launch review process to rank financial health of their Queensland coal mines and assets (BBG)

• Hub24 notes 3Q26 platform net inflows of $4bn (up 9% year-on-year), total funds under administration up 22% to $151.7bn (HUB)

• Rio Tinto reports Q1 global iron ore production up 12% to 82.8Mt, copper production up 9% to 229kt, full-year guidance unchanged (RIO)

• West African Resources says Burkina Faso government is acquiring 25% stake in its Kiaka gold operations for ~A$175m, to distribute the cash by way of a special dividend (WAF)

• Yancoal reports Q1 attributable coal production down 5% year-on-year to 9.0Mt, average realised coal price down 7% to A$146 a tonne, reaffirms full-year guidance (YAL)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• A fairly uneventful overnight lead: Though a positive one for the ASX, given S&P 500 sectors like Materials, Financials, Real Estate and Energy finished higher. The S&P/ASX 200 Financials Index is currently on a six day skid, though some strong dip buying has taken place in the last two sessions (down 0.25% last Friday vs. session low of -1.12%, down 0.10% yesterday vs. session low of -1.03%). Software stocks continued to bounce overnight, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF up 1.43%, the highest since 11 March. It's now up 15.5% in the last six sessions.

BROKER MOVES

• TechnologyOne downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target remains $30 (Jarden)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Tue 21 Apr: MFF Capital Investments (MFF) – $0.10

• Wed 22 Apr: Shriro Holdings (SHM) – $0.02

• Thu 23 Apr: Steamships Trading Co (SST) – $0.181  

• Fri 24 Apr: None

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT (CQE), EVZ (EVZ), Hub24 (HUB), Latitude Group (LFS), Verbrec (VBC)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 4:00 pm: UK Unemployment

• 10:30 pm: US Retail Sales