Evening Wrap: ASX 200 concedes most of Friday's gain on slumping iron ore, lithium, and uranium stocks

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 62.3 points lower, down 0.72%.

A dour day's trade on the ASX – with all but one of the major sectors closing in the red. That sole winner was Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (+0.5%), which enjoyed timely rebounds in major sector constituents Breville Group (BRG) (+2.4%), IDP Education (IEL) (+2.4%), Temple & Webster Group (TPW) (+2.4%) and JB HI-FI (JBH) (+2.3%).

It was slim pickings from there, with the Resources (XJR) (-2.2%) sector suffering a rare setback as major critical minerals, lithium and iron ore stocks fell. BHP Group (BHP) (-2.9%), Fortescue (FMG) (-1.0%) and Rio Tinto (RIO) (-2.4%) no doubt had the biggest impact in terms of index points, but Liontown Resources (LTR) (-6.4%), Genesis Minerals (GMD) (-5.4%), Iluka Resources (ILU) (-4.1%) and Pilbara Minerals (PLS) (-3.9%) were also disappointing.

Technically part of the Energy (XEJ) (-0.8%) sector, uranium stocks were also taken down in the anti-commodities sweep, with Bannerman Energy (BMN) (-8.6%), Deep Yellow (DYL) (-8.5%) and Boss Energy (BOE) (-8.2%) hit the hardest. Paladin Energy (PDN) lost -4.7%.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 62.3 points lower at 8,635.0, 0.72% from its session high and just 0.14% from its low. Reflecting the weakness of the benchmark index, in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers lagged decliners by 110 to 164.

Fund flows: 105 steps forward, 62 steps back... 🤦

December trading is notoriously thin, allowing relatively smaller orders to have a greater impact on prices – particularly if they are motivated by the goal of achieving an strong end of year outcome. This is quite possibly a suitable description of Friday’s move which saw the ASX 200, a.k.a. The Old Tin Pot, stack on over 100 points.

Today was perhaps a little more of the “reality” side of a tricky situation the Australian share market finds itself in as investors weigh up the tectonic shift local interest rates expectations that have swung from “a couple more near-term cuts” to “a couple of near-term hikes” – against pure timing: December is usually a strong period for stocks and US market moves have so far reflected this.

The poor Old Tin Pot is caught somewhere in between – and today we saw that without the crutch of the “US stocks are in Santa Rally mode”, we had little reason to stand on our own two feet and avoid giving back most of Friday’s “probably juiced” gains! 😭

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Analysis

One could argue it was a bit of a case “sold the dummy” on Friday.

Equally, one could argue it was simply a case of trusting the price action and going with what you could see.

Today’s move – a clear supply-side candle (i.e., black body and close near the session low) – is at odds with the clear-cut demand-side showing of Friday’s long white-bodied candle. BUT! It should be no surprise given the broader uncertainty that is clearly demonstrated in the prevailing trends, price action, and candles:

• Short term / Long term trend: ⬇️ / ↔️

• Price action: Rising peaks vs falling troughs, compressed since 8650 and hardly representative of a “V-shaped” rally since 8383 – or at least, growing increasingly less representative of one.

• Candles: Mixed, but with a modest skew towards the demand-side... but really only by Friday’s close… now largely undone today! 🦓

Conclusion: The Old Tin Pot’s technicals are “mixed” at best. ⚖️

And as a trend follower, my risk setting must reflect this: hence the 1/2RP (Risk Position) present setting. (Note, this was increased from 1/3RP on Friday’s candle – and I'm now regretting that a little! 😉)

On that last point, we know that one cannot move between settings instantaneously, so someone following my model would likely still be much closer to 1/3RP than 1/2RP.

And I don’t think there’s any rush to get there. But, in keeping with the change in settings, one should be looking for ways to do so. Today’s candle did not nullify Friday's move, neither in terms of its size, nor in terms of the accompanying volume / commitment.

The cricketing term “benefit of the doubt” comes to mind! Still, a close back below what I expect will now be a critical point of demand at 8562 would nullify Friday’s demand-side candle, and see an official move back to 1/3RP ⚠️🚨.

This is the present nature of the beast – we're here because the technical picture is uncertain. Therefore, we should expect some volatility given the price action clearly demonstrates neither the demand-side nor the supply-side has clear and confident control of the price.

It’s the whole reason we’re not at FRP (Full Risk Position) – unlike most fund managers who are forced to FRP all the time because their mandates require it (particularly passive funds that simply ape index performance: they're "FRP ATTDTT" (FRP All The Time Despite The Technicals! 😁)

View

I remain comfortable at 1/2RP 🪣 (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit (Risk Position) for my investments in Australian stocks is 33%) – however, I'm not in any major hurry to get there from the previous 1/3RP setting.

Key levels

8562 is the new closest point of demand. A close below this price would confirm the supply side is back in control of the ASX 200's price. In theory though, the short term and long term trend ribbons may now begin to act as a zone of dynamic demand (presently 8550-8672). The next key zone of supply is the old demand zone at 8731-8738, and it's 8809-8843 above that.

Economy

Today

• CHINA November "Data Dump"

  • New Home Prices: -0.4% m/m vs -0.45% m/m in October

  • Fixed Asset Investment: -2.6% year to date (ytd)/p.a. vs -2.4% ytd/p.a. forecast and 1.7% ytd/p.a. in October

  • Industrial Production: +4.8% p.a. vs 5.0% p.a. forecast and 4.9% p.a. in October

  • Retail Sales: +1.3% m/m vs 3.0% m/m forecast and 2.9% m/m in October

  • Unemployment Rate: 5.1%, unchanged vs October, as forecast

Later this week

Tuesday

• 09:00 AUS December Flash Purchasing Manufacturers Index (PMI)

  • Flash Manufacturing PMI: 51.6 previous

  • Flash Services PMI: 52.8 previous

Wednesday

• 00:30 USA November Core Retail Sales (+0.2% m/m forecast vs +0.3% m/m in October)

• 00:30 USA November Non-Farm Payroll (Employment)

  • Non-Farm Employment Change: +50,000 forecast vs +119,000 in October

  • Unemployment Rate: 4.5% forecast vs 4.4% in October

  • Average Hourly Earnings: +0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.2% m/m in October

• 09:00 USA December Flash Purchasing Manufacturers Index (PMI)

  • Flash Manufacturing PMI: 52.3 forecast vs 52.2 in November

  • Flash Services PMI: 54.0 forecast vs 54.1 in November

Thursday

• No major economic data releases due Thursday

Friday

• 00:30 USA November Core CPI

Saturday

• 02:00 USA November Existing Home Sales (4.15 million forecast vs 4.10 million in October)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +28.9% Electro Optic Systems Holdings (EOS) – EOS enters US$80m Conditional High Energy Laser Contract, general strength across the broader Defence sector today.

• +10.6% Droneshield (DRO) – No news, general strength across the broader Defence sector today.

• +10.5% Sunrise Energy Metals (SRL) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +9.9% 4DMEDICAL (4DX) – 4DMedical secures regulatory approval for CTVQ in Canada, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +9.6% Metallium (MTM) – No news.

• +8.3% American Tungsten & Antimony (AT4) – No news, bounced perfectly from long term uptrend ribbon! 🔎📈

• +7.8% Focus Minerals (FML) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.9% Meteoric Resources (MEI) – Caldeira Project Rare Earth Pilot Plant Officially Opened.

• +5.6% Minerals 260 (MI6) – High-Grade Gold Continues to be Intersected at Bullabulling, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.5% African Gold (A1G) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.1% Austal (ASB) – No news since 12-Dec Update on Treasurer's decision regarding Hanwha, general strength across the broader Defence sector today.

• +4.4% New Murchison Gold (NMG) – 2025 Annual Report, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +4.2% Robex Resources (RXR) – Robex Files Addendum to Information Circular.

• +4.1% Elsight (ELS) – No news, general strength across the broader Defence sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -10.6% Lake Resources (LKE) – Notice of breach of LR 7.1, general weakness across the broader Lithium sector today.

• -9.4% Unico Silver (USL) – No news, general weakness across the broader Silver sector today.

• -9.0% Boab Metals (BML) – Sorby Hills Fully Funded to Production, general weakness across the broader Silver sector today.

• -8.6% Bannerman Energy (BMN) – No news, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today.

• -8.5% Deep Yellow (DYL) – No news, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today.

• -8.2% Boss Energy (BOE) – No news, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -6.9% Silex Systems (SLX) – No news, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today.

• -6.8% Ramelius Resources (RMS) – No news, general weakness across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• -6.4% Liontown Resources (LTR) – Becoming a substantial holder, general weakness across the broader Lithium sector today, (Van Eck Associates 5.04%).

• -6.1% Global X Uranium ETF (ATOM) – No news, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today, (Uranium stocks ETF).

• -5.7% ASX (ASX) – ASX commits to ASIC Inquiry actions - $150m capital charge, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -5.6% Galan Lithium (GLN) – HMW Plant in Transit to Site, Phase 1 on Track, general weakness across the broader Lithium sector today.

• -5.4% Genesis Minerals (GMD) – No news, general weakness across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• -5.3% Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) – Change in substantial holding, general weakness across the broader Lithium sector today, (Citigroup 9.9% to 8.0%), fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and long term trend is transitioning from up to down, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -5.3% Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN) – No news, general weakness across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• -4.7% Paladin Energy (PDN) – No news, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today.

• -4.5% Nexgen Energy (NXG) – No news, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today.

• -4.3% Peninsula Energy (PEN) – No news, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing long term downtrend 🔎📉

• -3.9% Pilbara Minerals (PLS) – No news, general weakness across the broader Lithium sector today.

• -3.8% BetaShares Global Uranium ETF (URNM) – No news, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today, (Uranium stocks ETF).

• -3.8% Audinate Group (AD8) – No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, one of the most Featured (highest conviction) stocks in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

Broker Moves

The a2 Milk Company (A2M)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $9.70

Adore Beauty Group (ABY)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.25

Adairs (ADH)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.50

AML3D (AL3)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.40

Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $79.00

AMP (AMP)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $1.95

ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ)

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $30.00

Aspen Group (APZ)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $5.95

Austral Resources Australia (AR1)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.20

ASX (ASX)

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $62.15

AUB Group (AUB)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $35.50

Accent Group (AX1)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.10

Bega Cheese (BGA)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $7.00

BHP Group (BHP)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $43.00

Beacon Lighting Group (BLX)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.35

Bannerman Energy (BMN)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $7.40

Bank of Queensland (BOQ)

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $6.75

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $125.00

Challenger (CGF)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $11.00

Centuria Industrial REIT (CIP)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.65

Carma (CMA)

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $3.50

Centuria Capital Group (CNI)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.40

Centuria Office REIT (COF)

• Retained at sell at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.10

Coles Group (COL)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $24.30

Computershare (CPU)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $39.00

Capstone Copper Corp. (CSC)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $17.00

CSL (CSL)

• Downgraded to neutral from outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $188.00 from $275.20

Cedar Woods Properties (CWP)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $9.70

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $9.05

Digico Infrastructure REIT (DGT)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.20

Dexus Convenience Retail REIT (DXC)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.45

Dexus Industria REIT (DXI)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.10

Endeavour Group (EDV)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.30

Flight Centre Travel Group (FLT)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $17.85

Fortescue (FMG)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $19.50

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $22.00

Generation Development Group (GDG)

• Initiated at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.70

GDI Property Group (GDI)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.85

Gorilla Gold Mines (GG8)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.00

Gemlife Communities Group (GLF)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $5.55

Goodman Group (GMG)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $40.25

GenusPlus Group (GNP)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $7.50 from $6.00

GQG Partners Inc. (GQG)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $2.15

GWA Group (GWA)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.00

HealthCo Healthcare and Wellness REIT (HCW)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.00

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.40

HMC Capital (HMC)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.60

HUB24 (HUB)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $110.00

Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $8.30

Hazer Group (HZR)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.70

Insurance Australia Group (IAG)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $9.25

IGO (IGO)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.50

Inghams Group (ING)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.75

JB Hi-Fi (JBH)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $119.00

Judo Capital Holdings (JDO)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $2.20

James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $41.70

Jumbo Interactive (JIN)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $12.80

Kogan.com (KGN)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.40

L1 Group (L1G)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $0.79

Lifestyle Communities (LIC)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $5.70

LinQ Minerals (LNQ)

• Initiated at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.44

Light & Wonder Inc. (LNW)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $176.00

Lovisa Holdings (LOV)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $33.50

Liontown (LTR)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.00

Magellan Financial Group (MFG)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $10.70

Mineral Resources (MIN)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $51.00

Metro Mining (MMI)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.14

Macquarie Group (MQG)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $225.00

Myer Holdings (MYR)

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.79

National Australia Bank (NAB)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $42.50

Nick Scali (NCK)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $27.00

Newmont Corporation (NEM)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $175.00

Navigator Global Investments (NGI)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $3.85

New Hope Corporation (NHC)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.00

Noumi (NOU)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.19

Northern Star Resources (NST)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $34.00

Netwealth Group (NWL)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $33.50

Peninsula Energy (PEN)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.33

PLS Group (PLS)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.80

Premier Investments (PMV)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $26.50

Pinnacle Investment Management Group (PNI)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $22.60 from $26.40

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $20.50

Perpetual (PPT)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $22.40

Perseus Mining (PRU)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $6.65

PEXA Group (PXA)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $17.45

QBE Insurance Group (QBE)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $24.15

Radiopharm Theranostics (RAD)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.05

Reece (REH)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $11.00

Retail Food Group (RFG)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.60

Region Group (RGN)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.70

Rio Tinto (RIO)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $130.00

Ramelius Resources (RMS)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.60

Reliance Worldwide Corporation (RWC)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.30

South32 (S32)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.70

Steadfast Group (SDF)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $6.80

Sea Forest (SEA)

• Initiated at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.05

Sandfire Resources (SFR)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $17.00

SGH (SGH)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $53.60

SHAPE Australia Corporation (SHA)

• Initiated at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $7.10

Silex Systems (SLX)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $7.20

Step One Clothing (STP)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.30

Summit Minerals (SUM)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $15.25

Suncorp Group (SUN)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $22.00

Transurban Group (TCL)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $16.10

Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX)

• Initiated at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $17.00

Temple & Webster Group (TPW)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $19.50

Universal Store Holdings (UNI)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $10.50

Vista Group International (VGL)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $4.10

Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $40.00

Westgold Resources (WGX)

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $7.80

Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.00

Woolworths Group (WOW)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $30.70

Scans