Evening Wrap: ASX 200 soars over 100 points as the 2025 Santa Rally finally begins!

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 105.3 points higher, up 1.23%.

Santa Claus is coming to town and he brought a 105 point early Christmas present to Aussie investors! 🎁

There was definitely a golden tinge to the wrapping paper today, with the Gold Sub-Index (XGD) surging 4.5%. – but Resources (XJR) (+1.9%) more generally were very strong. But we're used to that!

What's been lacking recently, is a decent move from Financials (XFJ) (+1.6%) and Health Care (XHJ) (+1.5%) – but we certainly got this today ✅✅.

And when so many of the ASX's major stocks are pushing in one direction, it can only mean one thing: the ASX 200 is heading up. Ho, ho, ho! 🎅

But, it wasn't all Christmas cheer today. There were a few sectors that received big fat lumps of coal in their stockings, like Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (-0.1%), Communication Services (XTJ) (-0.3%), and Information Technology (XIJ) (-0.5%). Those who read our Evening Wrap regularly will no doubt know exactly why these sectors were Scrooged today! 😭

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 105.3 points higher at 8,697.3, 1.23% from its session low and just 0.05% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers beat decliners by a convincing 185 to 84.

Today’s monster gain ensured that for the week, the XJO finished up 62.7 points or 0.73% higher. That’s 1.6% from its intraweek low and just 0.05% from its intraweek low.

Fund flows: Here comes Santa Claus!!! 🚀🎅

Let’s just say, if you’re a fund manager and you wanted to give the ASX 200 a nudge, today was a pretty good day to do it. The Dow Jones closed at a record high, as did the Russell 2000 (big and small US stocks surging in unison), and there’s absolutely no news on the local front to get in your way (i.e., company specific / major econ’s data / RBA – all done for the year!).

Interestingly, yesterday was also potentially that day… and they did give it a nudge at the open… but yesterday’s long upward pointing candle shadow suggested the supply-side wasn’t having any of it. It sold into the Santa rally.

Today, the supply-side was complicit in proceedings – they largely stayed out of the way and let prices advance unencumbered.

We can see from today’s below average ASX 200 volume that there wasn’t much demand or supply today…it wasn’t like we just saw a huge pile of cash came in from the sidelines – simply that the cash that was thrown at stocks was highly motivated. And as noted earlier, it was largely unopposed by supply.

When we consider the concept of the demand-side’s “conviction” to start a new uptrend, ideally (but not essentially) we will see a bit of volume about it. There are two main reasons for this:

Big volume = Big demand, obviously that’s a sign of confidence from those with cash

Big volume = Big supply, this one might seem more counterintuitive, but it really makes sense when you consider that after a sustained decline, there is very likely a decent whack of excess supply lurking in the system. A big volume day accompanied by a strong demand-side candle (i.e., long white body and or long downward pointing shadow), demonstrates that supply was removed from the system. They’re out. They can only supply once… and they’re gone. That’s a big impediment to furthering the rally removed. It can also signal a final selling blowoff as a motivated fund finally finishes its order (or is finished off by demand!). It can also signal panic short covering as the bears realised the jig is up, the Santa Rally is on – and they better get out of town!

We didn’t see a big volume push today… But we did see plenty of motivation among the demand that did enter the market (i.e. they were happy to pay increasingly higher prices in a thin market to obtain stock).

It’s still excess demand, and it’s still good, because hey – the supply-side didn’t want to engage even though they were suddenly presented with higher prices. But it does leave a tiny nagging suspicion about that word: “Conviction”.

Was it "conviction" or "manipulation" today? 🤔

Some fundies would no doubt love to jack up the prices of Aussie stocks to paint their books in a far better light for the six months ending December 31. Some US based fund managers will be hunting performance bonusses as this date corresponds with their financial year end (hmmm… are we starting to get why the Santa Claus Rally is even a thing!? 😉)

When better to do a little “tweaking” of market prices than in a really thin market where there are few opposing orders to get in your way? This is when you can use the least amount of cash to get the biggest bang for your buck! 💰✅

(I don't know if you saw my ChartWatch ASX Scans introduction today – can I say that given the absolutely dire predicament the ASX was in based on those charts this morning... today's move could not have possibly come at a better time!!! 😅)

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Analysis

Boy that escalated quickly...

Ron Burgundy didn't see that big white candle coming today...😉

A spade is a spade.

If it looks like a duck and it quacks…

The tape tells the truth. The market is the market. The chart doesn’t lie.

D > S = P⬆️

Have I missed any? 🤔

The Old Tin Pot was nowhere to be found today. Nope, it was truly a Golden Le Creuset performance! 🏆

• Long white candle + close very near high of session ✅

• Sets 8562 as a point of demand, which is higher than 8383 = demand reinforcement ✅`

• Closed > 8650 point of supply = supply removal ✅

• Close > short term downtrend ribbon ✅

• Close > long term trend ribbon ✅

That's a lot of ✅'s!

It doesn't matter whether I believe it. It doesn't matter whether I think it's manipulation / attempt at a Santa Claus Rally. It only matters what is there in black and white (and pink and green and orange!).

Today's candle suggests that D > S again. I.e. demand has edged ahead of supply. MOTN (More Often Than Not) when D > S then P⬆️.

There's still a swathe of supply pressure points above – and we will be watching the candles and volume at each like a hawk! 🦅 But, I'm going to go with today's move – for now – Santa do your thing! 🤞

View

I am moving back to a more neutral stance with respect to my ASX risk. This means I am moving to 1/2RP 🪣 (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit (Risk Position) for my investments in Australian stocks is 50%).

Key levels

8562 is the new closest point of demand. A close below this price would confirm the supply side is back in control of the ASX 200's price. In theory though, the short term and long term trend ribbons may now begin to act as a zone of dynamic demand (presently 8550-8675). The next key zone of supply is the old demand zone at 8731-8738, and it's 8809-8843 above that.

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major economic data releases in our time zone today

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +16.6% Elsight (ELS) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +16.0% Predictive Discovery (PDI) – No news since 11-Dec PDI Announces Amended Arrangement Agreement with Robex.

• +13.5% Unico Silver (USL) – No news, general strength across the broader Silver sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +10.9% Meeka Metals (MEK) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +10.6% Peninsula Energy (PEN) – No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today.

• +9.9% Genusplus Group (GNP) – Genus Awarded Western Renewables Project in Victoria.

• +9.8% EQ Resources (EQR) – Clarification of Production Targets and Life of Mine Plans, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +8.8% 4DMEDICAL (4DX) – 4DMedical secures $30.2 million with options underwrite, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +8.2% Wildcat Resources (WC8) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.9% Turaco Gold (TCG) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.6% Genesis Minerals (GMD) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.1% New Murchison Gold (NMG) – 2025 Annual Report, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.7% Argosy Minerals (AGY) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.7% Polymetals Resources (POL) – No news, general strength across the broader Silver sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -9.4% Meteoric Resources (MEI) – No news, general weakness across the broader Rare Earths & Critical Minerals sector today.

• -8.8% Nanosonics (NAN) – No news since 11-Dec CORIS system achieves key regulatory registrations.

• -8.7% Metallium (MTM) – Reinstatement to Quotation and Strategic U.S. Gallium & Scandium Red-Mud Collaboration.

• -7.7% Marmota (MEU) – No news, pulled back after yesterday’s sharp rally due to Assays prove Greenewood is a spectacular gold discovery.

Broker Moves

29Metals (29M)

• Upgraded to hold from lighten at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.45 from $0.35

Alcoa Corporation (AAI)

• Downgraded to accumulate from buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $71.50

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $71.00 from $62.00

Bellevue Gold (BGL)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.60 from $1.40

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $1.55

BHP Group (BHP)

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $47.00 from $45.00

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $49.00

Boss Energy (BOE)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $2.10

Brazilian Rare Earths (BRE)

• Retained at speculative buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $7.00 from $6.30

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $106.00

Chalice Mining (CHN)

• Initiated at sell at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.15

Capricorn Metals (CMM)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $19.50

COG Financial Services (COG)

• Initiated at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $2.45

Charter Hall Retail REIT (CQR)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $4.50

Coronado Global Resources Inc (CRN)

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $0.25 from $0.19

Capstone Copper Corp. (CSC)

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $14.50 from $14.75

Core Lithium (CXO)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.30 from $0.23

Deterra Royalties (DRR)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.60 from $4.50

• Downgraded to sell from neutral at UBS; Price Target: $3.95 from $3.75

Deep Yellow (DYL)

• Upgraded to accumulate from hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.00

EBOS Group (EBO)

• Upgraded to buy from accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $34.82

Emerald Resources NL (EMR)

• Retained at lighten at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.90 from $4.30

Energy One (EOL)

• Initiated at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $20.80

Evolution Mining (EVN)

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $10.70

Fenix Resources (FEX)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.65

FireFly Metals (FFM)

• Retained at sell at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.70

Flight Centre Travel Group (FLT)

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $16.00 from $15.20

• Retained at buy at Carter Bar Securities; Price Target: $18.62 from $18.26

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $16.75 from $15.10

• Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $18.00

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $16.45 from $14.40

Fortescue (FMG)

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $23.00 from $21.50

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $20.00

Greatland Resources (GGP)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $13.00 from $12.00

Global Lithium Resources (GL1)

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.60 from $0.50

Genesis Minerals (GMD)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $8.50

GPT Group (GPT)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $6.00

Hastings Technology Metals (HAS)

• Downgraded to sell from hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.32 from $0.28

Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $7.70

Insurance Australia Group (IAG)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $9.00 from $10.00

IGO (IGO)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $8.25 from $7.50

Iluka Resources (ILU)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $5.45

ImpediMed (IPD)

• Initiated at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.07

JB Hi-Fi (JBH)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $120.00

• Upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $99.00

Kinatico (KYP)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.45

Liontown (LTR)

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.50 from $1.25

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $17.70

Minerals 260 (MI6)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.55

Mineral Resources (MIN)

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $58.00 from $55.00

Myer Holdings (MYR)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $0.69

Newmont Corporation (NEM)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $160.00 from $150.00

Navigator Global Investments (NGI)

• Initiated at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $3.45

New Hope Corporation (NHC)

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.30 from $5.90

Nickel Industries (NIC)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.90 from $1.70

Northern Star Resources (NST)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $29.75

Netwealth Group (NWL)

• Upgraded to buy from hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $31.50 from $30.00

Ora Banda Mining (OBM)

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.35

Predictive Discovery (PDI)

• Downgraded to hold from buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.74

Paladin Energy (PDN)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $9.00

PLS Group (PLS)

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.05 from $3.60

Polynovo (PNV)

• Upgraded to buy from speculative buy at Morgans; Price Target: $2.03 from $1.69

Perseus Mining (PRU)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $4.80

• Retained at lighten at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.00 from $4.60

REA Group (REA)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $220.00

Rio Tinto (RIO)

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $147.00 from $140.00

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $140.00 from $138.00

Ramelius Resources (RMS)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $4.20

Regis Resources (RRL)

• Retained at sell at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.00 from $4.50

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $8.30

Resolute Mining (RSG)

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.20 from $1.10

South32 (S32)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.25 from $4.00

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $3.50

Steadfast Group (SDF)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $6.50

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.74

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.80

Sandfire Resources (SFR)

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $16.95 from $16.65

Sigma Healthcare (SIG)

• Upgraded to buy from accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $3.39

Sunstone Metals (STM)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.07

Santos (STO)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $7.25 from $7.50

Transurban Group (TCL)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $13.93

Vault Minerals (VAU)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $6.60

West African Resources (WAF)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.70

Wildcat Resources (WC8)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.40 from $0.35

Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

• Downgraded to sell from neutral at UBS; Price Target: $7.15 from $6.95

Wisetech Global (WTC)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $109.15 from $121.35

Scans