Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rally as S&P 500, Dow and Russell 2000 hit fresh record highs

ASX 200 futures are up 89pts (+1.03%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• S&P 500, Dow and Russell 2000 all marked record closing highs

• Oracle missed quarterly revenue, earnings and cash flow expectations, driving tech stocks broadly lower and a rotation into cyclical and value-oriented pockets of the market

• Massive session for commodities, with gold higher, copper and silver marching to fresh record highs

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 slipped in early trade, rallied intraday to close slightly higher (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks broadly higher and closed at best levels

• S&P 500 marked a record close, Dow topped 12-Nov record and Russell 2000 logged a second consecutive record high

• Today’s big story – Oracle is having its worst day since 2001 (down ~11%) after a slight Q2 revenue and net income miss, free cash flow was far worse than expected (-US$10bn vs. -US$5.2bn ests) and full-year capex guidance up 42% to US$50bn

• Busy day for AI-related headlines, with OpenAI releasing its latest GPT-5.2 model (which sent Google shares down 2.2%), Disney also inked a US$1bn investment in OpenAI and Rivian revealed its own AI chip

• Softness in key tech names like Nvidia (-1.5%), Apple (-0.2%), Alphabet (-2.2%) and Amazon (-0.6%) drove the Nasdaq lower

• A rotation is taking place thanks to Oracle's disappointing results, now seeing cyclicals extending recent outperformance and strong gains from the Dow and Equal-weight S&P

• Wall Street eyes $3tn in potential IPOs next year, featuring names like SpaceX, raising dot‑com style valuation and profit concerns (AX)

• IEA cuts oil supply growth forecast to 3mbd as OPEC+ production declines reducing surplus expectations (BBG)

STOCKS

• Adobe posts strong full-year guidance, shares up 2% amid investor caution about AI growth plans (BBG)

• Cisco shares hits a 25‑year record as AI spending boom fuels renewed investor optimism in legacy tech (BBG)

• Netflix plans to add billions in debt to fund $72bn Warner Bros acquisition replacing $59bn temporary financing (BBG)

• OpenAI unveils ChatGPT 5.2 as competition with Google heats up (TV)

• Disney announces $bn investment in OpenAI, will allow characters on Sora AI video generator (CNBC)

• Rivian has developed its own AI chip, replacing Nvidia's technology (BBG)

• Eli Lilly's next-generation obesity drug delivers strong weight loss, though with modestly high discontinuation rate (CNBC)

• Disney hits Google with cease-and-desist claiming 'massive' copyright infringement (TC)

TARIFFS

• Mexico approves tariffs up to 50% on Asian imports aligning with US-led trade tightening against China (BBG)

• Trump and Modi speak on trade as negotiations slowly advance forward (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Fed's split decision warns lower rates ahead aren't guaranteed and complicates Trump's push for a new Fed chair (NYT)

• Switzerland holds rate at zero, citing soft inflation weak growth and eased external pressures (BBG)

ECONOMY

• US November budget deficit of $278bn down 6% year-on-year, with fiscal‑year deficit down 16% (BBG)

• Australian employment slides in November signaling cooling labor market, easing near‑term rate‑hike pressure (RT)

ASX TODAY

• Amcor to proceed with 1-for-5 reverse stock split (AMC)

• Civmec executives disposed of 28.4m shares at $1.33 a piece, including Chairman James Fitzgerald (13.5m shares), CEO Patrick Tallon (13.5m shares) and COO Kevin Deery (1.4m shares), sale undertaken in response to interest from new institutional investors (CVL)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Let's have another crack: ASX 200 closed 0.15% higher on Thursday, fading a 0.93% intraday high. We've got a very strong US lead today, so let's see if we can hold on to some gains.

• Commodity froth: The mining sector is going to be all the rage today as i) Materials was the best performing S&P 500 sector, up 2.23%; ii) strong session for commodities, with LME copper up 2.8% to record highs of US$11,897, gold up 1.1% and not far from US$4,300, silver up 3.0% to record US$63.6/oz and more; iii) most resource-related overnight ETFs up 1-3% and iv) cyclical basket up for a record 13th straight session overnight according to Goldman Sachs, also noted that 3-9 month returns after such a stretch is almost always positive.

BROKER MOVES

Data currently pending.

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Fri 12 Dec: Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure (DBI) – $0.061, Metcash (MTS) – $0.085, Sandon Capital (SNC) – $0.005

• Mon 15 Dec: Fleetpartners Group (FPR) – $0.136

• Tue 16 Dec: Plato Income Maximiser (PL8) – $0.006

• Wed 17 Dec: Wam Income Maximiser (WMX) – $0.004

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: NAB (NAB), Technology One (TNE)

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: BMC Minerals (BMC) at 12:00 pm

• AGMs: NAB (NAB)

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 6:00 pm: UK GDP (Oct)