Evening Wrap: ASX 200 firms on gains in iron ore miners BHP, RIO, FMG, CIA and FEX

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 12.6 points higher, up 0.15%.

Marvellous miners! They are making a habit of it, i.e., of leading the ASX 200 on an otherwise lacklustre trading session. Today we saw each of the major iron ore producers gain ground on hopes the iron ore price will stay 'stronger for longer' above the key US$100/t level.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 12.6 points higher at 8,592.0, 0.78% from its session high and just 0.28% from its low. Despite the gain in the benchmark, in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers were only roughly even-Stevens with decliners at 136 to 134.

Fund flows: And you thought the stock market was "complicated"...

Well, at least you possibly did before you started suffering through my rantings here in Evening Wrap. But, perhaps you're starting to realise – it's really not that complicated... One simply must understand:

1. What's the price of money? (Is it high or is it low, is it rising or is it falling?)

2. What's the appetite for risk?

3. Which sectors tend to do better under the above circumstances? Maybe one should own more of these...

4. Which sectors tend to do worse under the above circumstances? Maybe one should own lesser of these...

If you're new to Evening Wrap, the answers are:

1. Going up rapidly 🚀

2. Not very much – well at least not for many stocks in the ASX 200 a.k.a. The Old Tin Pot! ⚠️

3. MOTN (More Often Than Not) low P/E Ratio and short duration sectors like Resources (XJR) (+0.7%) and defensives like Gold Sub-Index (XGD) (+0.3%)

4. MOTN high P/E Ratio and long duration sectors like Information Technology (XIJ) (-1.5%), Health Care (XHJ) (-1.1%), Communication Services (XTJ) (-0.7%) and Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (-0.5%).

The other thing you'll know, is that while every other evening wrap out there is going to say something benal like "The ASX 200 rose today on stronger XXX stocks... while elsewhere... ".

You know that today's 12-point gain means a whole lot less than what that blue line starting top-left and finishing bottom-right of the intraday chart above is telling us... but more on that in ChartWatch below!

If there was a silver lining today, it's that benchmark risk-free yields pulled back from their recent whiplash-inducing ascent... which helped the likes of the bond proxies Real Estate (XPJ) (+0.7%), Financials (XFJ) (+0.3%), and Utilities (XUJ) (+0.2%).

That's good for them, of course, but when you consider risk appetite for stocks in the US is growing again – including stronger performances for higher P/E indices like the Nasdaq Composite (average P/E ~30) and the Russell 2000 (average P/E ~37) — then it really highlights just how unloved our high P/E sectors are right now!

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Analysis

You know how I ask you for a show of thumbs up emojis or surprised face emojis with respect to charts in our Wednesday ChartWatch *LIVE* webinars?

I wish I could do that now with the chart above: Can I get a show of 👍 for who is 0% surprised by the Old Tin Pot’s performance today?

👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍

Now, can I get a 😮 for anyone who’s looking at that long upward pointing shadow – probing halfway into the dynamic excess supply of short term downtrend ribbon – and who’s thinking: “Geez… I didn’t see that coming!”

…

If we didn’t know the OTP any better, then we probably would be surprised! US stocks are again on the cusp of a new record high (ChartWatch Markets is on a break – but officially stating (as flagged in yesterday's webinar) that I’m moving to 2/3RP on the Comp).

If you believe the small-cap Russell 2000 – which did close at a record high last night – circumstances have never been better.

But we can’t really blame the OTP for being, well, so OTP-like. It only has what it has to work with: 4 banks, 3 resources, TLS, CSL, and WES. I.e., about 98% of our total market cap (yes, perhaps a smidge of exaggeration there! 😉).

Let's hope today's long upward pointing shadow is an aberration – a quirk of fund managers winding down for the year. Let's also hope that it's not a sign that active fund managers are targeting anything that resembles a strong rally to sell into.

Look at today's volume – the highest in over a week. It tells you that some decent demand did come in this morning, likely dumbly following those strong leads from US stocks. It also tells you that there must have been some decent supply lurking in the system to meet it – and the length of today's upward pointing shadow tells you how much more motivated this side of the market was.

View

Today's candle is consistent with the prevailing short term downtrend, and therefore I remain comfortable at 1/3RP 🪣 (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit (Risk Position) for my investments in Australian stocks is 33%).

Key levels

8383 is the closest point of demand. A close below this price would confirm the new long term downtrend (i.e., that the bull market in ASX stocks is over! 🤯). The short term trend ribbon is the closest zone of supply (presently 8626-8673). In the absence of other confirming demand-side control signals, the ASX 200 must close back above this zone to demonstrate the demand-side is back in control.

Economy

Today

• AUS November Employment

  • Change: -21,300 vs +20,000 forecast and +41,100 in October (revised down from +42,200)

  • Unemployment rate: 4.3% vs 4.4% forecast and 4.3% in October

  • Details: Employment in November was weak, driven by a large 56k fall in full-time employment vs a 35k gain in part-time jobs

  • Expert comment: "Overall, the typically volatile jobs report has a little bit for everyone today – the doves, the hawks, and moderates alike. We have been of the view that the labour market in Australia is around balanced... We also see some further deterioration in the outlook for the labour market, with mixed signals from leading indicators."

Later this week

Friday

• 05:00 USA 30-y Bond Auction

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +83.1% Marmota (MEU) – Assays prove Greenewood is a spectacular gold discovery, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends.

• +19.0% Lake Resources (LKE) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +14.9% Fenix Resources (FEX) – Fenix 3-Year Production Plan, general strength across the broader Iron Ore sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +11.9% Dateline Resources (DTR) – No news, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +9.8% Myer Holdings (MYR) – AGM - Executive Chair Presentation.

• +7.7% Sun Silver (SS1) – No news, general strength across the broader Silver sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.2% Immutep (IMM) – Continued positive response to 08-Dec Immutep enters into Strategic Collaboration with Dr. Reddy's.

• +7.2% Argosy Minerals (AGY) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.1% James Hardie Industries (JHX) – No news, general strength in stocks with US exposure on stronger US equity markets overnight.

• +6.7% Ramelius Resources (RMS) – Continued positive response to 10-Dec Ramelius announces A$250m Share Buyback Program, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend 🔎📈

• +6.0% Dimerix (DXB) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +5.9% Brazilian Rare Earths (BRE) – Amargosa Bauxite Project Scoping Study.

• +5.7% Metal Powder Works (MPW) – MPW Expands into Precious Metal with Silver Powder.

• +5.6% HOT Chili (HCH) – Continued positive response to 10-Dec Near-Surface, Higher-Grade Cu-Au Core Confirmed at La Verde, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.5% Andean Silver (ASL) – Cerro Bayo drilling extends high-grade mineralisation, general strength across the broader Silver sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.4% Flight Centre Travel Group (FLT) – FLT to Acquire Iglu Cruise & Amended Guidance, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, added to ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list today 🔎📈

• +5.2% Focus Minerals (FML) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.0% Elsight (ELS) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -11.3% Predictive Discovery (PDI) – PDI Announces Amended Arrangement Agreement with Robex.

• -11.1% Stakk (SKK) – No news since 10-Dec Stakk Investor Presentation - December 2025, general weakness across the broader Information Technology sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and falling peaks and falling troughs 🔎📉

• -8.9% Catalyst Metals (CYL) – No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and falling peaks and falling troughs 🔎📉

• -8.2% Arafura Rare Earths (ARU) – No news, general weakness across the broader Rare Earths & Critical Minerals sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and falling peaks and falling troughs 🔎📉

• -8.0% St Barbara (SBM) – No news since 10-Dec Touquoy Restart to Proceed to Permitting.

Broker Moves

Ampol (ALD)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $37.00 from $36.00

Abacus Storage King (ASK)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $1.50

Aurum Resource (AUE)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.50

BHP Group (BHP)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $47.00 from $45.00

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $47.00

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $45.00

Brazilian Rare Earths (BRE)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $6.40

BWP Trust (BWP)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $4.00

Chalice Mining (CHN)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $1.75 from $2.00

Frontier Digital Ventures (FDV)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.57 from $0.58

Goodman Group (GMG)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $40.00

GQG Partners Inc. (GQG)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $2.10 from $2.15

Guzman Y Gomez (GYG)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $32.30

Insurance Australia Group (IAG)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $10.00

Immutep (IMM)

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.27 from $0.98

James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $37.20

Monadelphous Group (MND)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $28.75

Newmont Corporation (NEM)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $190.00

Northern Star Resources (NST)

• Downgraded to neutral from overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $28.00 from $26.00

NRW Holdings (NWH)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.95

Orica (ORI)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $25.95

Predictive Discovery (PDI)

• Downgraded to neutral from overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.74 from $0.72

Paladin Energy (PDN)

• Upgraded to neutral from underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $9.25 from $7.40

Qube Holdings (QUB)

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $4.30

REA Group (REA)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $279.25

Rio Tinto (RIO)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $147.00 from $140.00

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $138.00

Scentre Group (SCG)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $4.60

Stepchange Holdings (STH)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.26 from $0.23

Symal Group (SYL)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $3.75 from $2.40

• Downgraded to accumulate from buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.10 from $2.50

Transurban Group (TCL)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $14.55

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $14.00

Treasury Wine Estates (TWE)

• Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $5.11

Scans