ASX 200 Live Today - Thursday, 11th December

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Thursday, December 11. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. It'll wrap up around 2:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 fades early gains

[2:10 pm] Not the prettiest session, with the S&P/ASX 200 currently breakeven, down from session highs of 0.93%. Sectors are seeing a broad pullback, with Materials up 0.5% vs. session high of 1.96% and Tech bounced 0.66% but now down 1.41%. Perhaps a sell the news event following the Fed rate cut. Overall, markets remain dicey and today's pullback brings things back to this uncomfortable level (on the 200-day, struggling to show more strength after recent bounce).

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AMP's take on the unemployment data

[1:59 pm] "Overall, the typically volatile jobs report has a little bit for everyone today – the doves, the hawks, and moderates alike," says AMP Economist My Bui.

"The RBA has turned significantly more hawkish lately, with upside surprises in the October monthly CPI and October household spending data ... commentary has effectively set up the scene for higher interest rates in the future."

Despite this hawkish backdrop, AMP still expects rates to be on hold through 2026.

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UBS talks China commodities data

[1:09 pm] China’s preliminary Nov-25 trade data point to generally supportive commodity trends amid seasonal adjustments and resilient demand, according to UBS.

• Iron ore imports fell marginally month-on-month as mills entered seasonal maintenance. Port stocks up +3% m/m but down -3% y/y. Medium-term fundamentals supported by supply constraints, strong steel demand in India and South East Asia, and India shifting to net importer.

• Copper concentrate imports slightly up m/m (2.53Mt) and +8% YTD, while refined metal imports fell 2% m/m and -19% y/y. Tight physical supply expected to support prices through 2026.

• Aluminium exports rose +13% m/m, though -15% y/y, supported by strong end-market demand and disciplined smelter growth in China and Indonesia.

• Net steel exports remained elevated at 9.5Mt (+8% y/y, ~110Mt annualised), with moderate mill profitability limiting near-term risk of production cuts.

• Coal imports improved +6% m/m on restocking activity but remain -20% y/y; seasonal demand and Australian supply disruptions support near-term prices.

• Next data catalyst: November monthly releases on 15 December, with expectations of industrial production +5.0% y/y, fixed asset investment -2.3% y/y YTD, and property investment -15.5% y/y YTD.

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What a breakout for miners

[12:57 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index continues to climb into record territory, now up 7.5% this month. We're seeing a broad uplift in the resource space, spanning iron ore (BHP now at two-year highs, Rio Tinto a record highs, FMG up 50% since June and highest since May 2024), gold, copper, lithium and more. 2026 is going to be a very interesting year for the commodity complex as these stocks/sub-sectors move out of multi-year bases.

S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index chart (Source: TradingView)

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Australian unemployment remains at 4.3%

[11:33 am] Australia's unemployment rate was steady at 4.3% in November vs. market expectations of 4.4%. Key takeaways from the ABS report include:

• Full-time employment fell by 57,000 people, with males falling by 40,000 and females by 16,000 people.

• Part-time employment partly offset the fall in full-time employment, rising by 35,000. Females working part-time increased 29,000 people, whilst males rose 6,000 people in November.

• ‘The number of employed people has risen 1.3 per cent over the past 12 months, which is weaker than the 2.0 per cent growth in population.’

The S&P/ASX 200 has traded marginally higher (+0.82%) since the employment data.

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Intraday gainers and losers

[11:20 am] Here's a new scan for the Blog. It looks at stocks (S&P/ASX 200 constituents) that have experienced the largest % change from the open price (effectively what's being bought and sold after market open).

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BHP nears 2-year highs

[10:22 am] BHP is trading at levels not seen since December 2023 and less than 2% from fresh all-time highs. Iron ore prices have defined market expectations to trade around US$100 a tonne for most of this year (currently ~US$106).

BHP price chart (Source: TradingView)

According to Macquarie (Nov-25), BHP's NPV at current spot prices is made up of 67% iron ore, 22% copper, 9% nickel and potash, and 2% coal.

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ASX 200 higher, Miners at all-time highs

[10:15 am] ASX 200 trading 0.60% higher, nudging above the 20-day moving average and near one-month highs. The Materials Index (+1.75%) is trading at fresh all-time highs following a broad rally across iron ore, gold, lithium, copper and more.

ASX 200 sector performance (Source: Market Index)

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Top ASX 200 gainers

[10:08 am] Flight Centre's acquisition has been relatively well received, James Hardie rallies in-line with the overnight move in US-listed homebuilders and resources are all the rage right now, with the S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index up 1.85% in early trade to fresh all-time highs.

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ACCC blocks IAG’s proposed RAC Insurance acquisition

[9:42 am] The ACCC has opposed IAG’s plan to acquire RAC Insurance, citing a likely substantial lessening of competition in Western Australia.

The ACCC report warned that:

• IAG and RACI together would hold around 55–65% of the motor vehicle insurance market and 50–60% of home and contents insurance in WA, “eliminating significant competition” between the two, according to ACCC Chair Gina Cass-Gottlieb.

• The acquisition could enable IAG “to increase premiums and reduce the quality of its suite of insurance products, with likely flow-on effects to the offerings of other insurers.”

• While other insurers like Suncorp, Allianz, QBE, Auto & General, Youi, and Hollard operate in WA, the ACCC concluded they would be “unlikely to prevent the significant loss of competition” post-acquisition.

Company page: Insurance Australia Group (IAG)

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Myer AGM trading update

[9:35 am] Myer provided a trading update for the first 19 weeks of FY26, noting:

• Total 19-week sales up 3.0% year-on-year (vs. 3.1% increase in the first eleven weeks of FY26)

• Myer Retail grew 3.4% and Apparel Brands increased 1.3% year-on-year

• Online sales in the high single digits

• Company continues to target FY cost of doing business around 29%

Myer shares have dipped 65% year-to-date, including a 25% one day selloff on its FY25 result (23 Sep), which delivered relatively in-line sales and margins but net profit and cash missed expectations. Ongoing challenges with its distribution centres will also impact financial performance in the first-half of FY26.

Company page: Myer (MYR)

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Intelligent Monitoring to expand NZ operations with BlueSky acquisition

[9:28 am] Intelligent Monitoring plans to acquire BlueSky Holdco, including Tyco New Zealand and Red Wolf Security, for NZ$45 million (A$39 million) in cash. At first glance, looks like a very earnings accretive acquisition.

Key transaction details:

• Acquisition expected to generate NZ$89.5 million (A$78.1 million) in FY26 proforma revenue and NZ$10.9 million (A$10 million) EBITDA.

• Combined with IMB’s existing guidance of A$43–47 million EBITDA, proforma EBITDA rises to A$53–57 million (22% increase)

• Forecast EPS (pre-amortisation) of at least 0.066 cents per share, representing a 28.3% accretion

• Completion is not expected before 28 February 2026.

Company page: Intelligent Monitoring (IMB)

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Transurban advances NSW toll reform discussions

[9:21 am] Transurban has signalled progress on its NSW toll reform and outlined two major concessions it is prepared to make.

1. Remove administration fees as part of a broader overhaul of the enforcement system

2. Compensate the NSW Government for any induced demand created by making the $60 weekly toll cap permanent from 1 July 2026.

Work is ongoing for these proposed changes and expect to be finalised in the first half of 2026.

Company page: Transurban (TCL)

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Flight Centre acquires UK cruise agency

[9:15 am] Flight Centre announced its acquisition of UK cruise agency Iglu for an upfront £100 million and up to £27 million in earnouts, funded via cash and existing facilities.

• Expected to be EPS accretive in FY26 as Flight Centre expands further into the high-growth cruise segment

• FY26 underlying PBT guidance was upgraded to $315–350 million from $305–340 million, representing a midpoint increase of 3.1%

• Iglu sellers include LDC, Beauport Partners and Richard Downs, with completion targeted before 11 December.

Company page: Flight Centre (FLT)

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St Barbara restructures Simberi ownership

[9:13 am] St Barbara announced two major transactions late Wednesday afternoon, which briefly drove the share price 17.8% higher (closed up 10.8%).

• PNG state nominee Kumul Mineral Holdings acquired a 20% interest in the Simberi Gold Project for $100 million, funded entirely by a non-recourse loan from St Barbara that will be repaid through Kumul’s future project revenues.

• Lingbao Gold Group acquired 50% of St Barbara Mining Pty Ltd (SBML) for $370 million cash. The underlying assets for SBML is an 80% interest in the Simberi JV

• The Lingbao transaction implies an $800 million valuation for the Simberi project and is conditional on PRC and PNG approvals, Mining Lease extension and a positive FID, with completion targeted for late 3Q26

Company page: St Barbara (SBM)

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IMF upgrades China's growth outlook, flags yuan depreciation as driver of export boom

[9:04 am] The IMF argues China’s weak real exchange rate is amplifying export strength and widening global trade imbalances.

China reported a record goods trade surplus of ~US$1 trillion in the first eleven months of 2025. Though the IMF is urging China to adopt stronger consumption-focused stimulus to lift prices and reduce dependence on exports.

Growth forecasts were upgraded to 5% for 2025 and 4.5% for 2026, with analysts arguing that reflation would help ease both internal and external imbalances.

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Stimulus hopes fuel sharp rebound in Chinese developers

[9:00 am] Chinese property stocks rallied on renewed policy optimism and signs of progress in Vanke’s debt restructuring. This is probably a good look-through for the local resource/iron ore sector.

• Chinese listed property developers rallied more than 4% on Wednesday as sentiment steadied around potential stimulus.

• Vanke jumped nearly 19% on the Hang Seng, with its dollar notes due 2027 and 2029 trading up to around 23 cents, indicating improved confidence in its restructuring path.

• Bondholders were shown three proposals to extend a 2 billion yuan onshore note due 15 December.

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US stocks rallied on the rate cut

[8:55 am] There's probably a headline/data point out there saying this was the best Fed day of the year (since the market typically dips on the rate decision and/or the Fed press conference).

The S&P 500 was pretty much flat heading into the rate decision and rallied almost 1% over the next ~90 mins.

S&P 500 intraday chart (Source: TradingView)

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Everything you need to know about the Fed rate cut

[8:52 am] The Fed delivered its third straight and widely expected rate cut, reopened the QE playbook with $40 billion in monthly Treasury purchases, and revealed a deeply divided rate outlook heading into 2026. Here are the key takeaways from both the FOMC and press conference.

Policy decision and rate settings:

• Cut the federal funds rate by 25 bps to 3.50–3.75%

• Vote split 9–3, with dissents on both the dovish and hawkish sides

• Dot plot signals one cut in 2026 and one in 2027

• Seven officials prefer no cuts at all in 2026, while eight favor at least two cuts

• Powell says policy is now within the “broad range” of neutral and the Fed is “well positioned to wait and see.

Quantitative easing restart:

• Fed authorised a monthly US$40 billion of Treasury bill purchases

• QE restarts on 12 December, with officials expecting “elevated” purchases for several months driven by concerns about liquidity conditions and a potential squeeze in overnight funding markets

SEP forecasts:

• Median 2026 GDP outlook upgraded to 2.3% from 1.8%

• 2025 inflation now expected at 2.4%, down from 2.6% in prior projections.

• Fed sees labour market cooling more sharply than previously thought

• Powell notes an overstatement of payroll numbers by roughly 60k per month, with actual underlying trend closer to minus 20k per month.

Inflation, tariffs and goods pricing:

• Powell expects 1Q26 to be the peak in goods inflation, rising only “a couple of tenths” before easing

• Without new tariffs, inflation would be in the “low 2s.”

• Tariffs typically take nine months to be fully priced into inflation data

Powell presser:

• Powell stresses there is “a great deal of data” between now and the January meeting and all of it will shape policy

• Notes that disagreements within the FOMC reflect genuine risk asymmetry with inflation risk vs. labour-market deterioration

• Clarifies that today’s move should not be compared to the 1990s cutting cycles

• Confirms cumulative cuts of 75 bps this year

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Major US benchmarks all trading around record highs

[8:45 am] Very strong overnight session: S&P 500 (+0.67%), Nasdaq (+0.33%), Dow (+1.05%) and Russell 2000 (+1.32%).

Sector performance was a little mixed, with Utilities (-0.11%), Staples (+0.00%), Tech (+0.05%), Real Estate (+0.06%) and Communication Services (+0.13%) all closing relatively flattish. Though the other six sectors rallied more than 1.0%.

S&P 500 heatmap (Source: TradingView)

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Good morning!

[8:30 am] ASX 200 futures are up 86pts (+1.00%) as of 8:30 am AEDT. The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks broadly higher after the Fed cut rates by 25 bps and outlined plans to purchase US$40bn per month in Treasury bills from 12-Dec

• S&P 500 (+0.68%) and Nasdaq (+0.33%) both within ~1.5% of all-time highs

• Russell 2000 rallied 1.32% to record highs, Equal-weight S&P 500 up 1.41% to fresh all-time highs

Catch up on all the overnight moves and news via today's Morning Wrap.