Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to slip, S&P 500 edges higher, copper prices extends record runs

ASX 200 futures are down 13pts (-0.15%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks mostly higher but off best levels

• S&P 500 up 0.19%, down from session highs of 0.56%

• Carvana, CRH, Comfort Systems enter the S&P 500, replacing LKQ, Solstice Advanced Materials and Mohawk Industries

• Copper extends record run, with LME futures up 1.2% overnight to a record US$11,653 a tonne

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 higher but off best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks mostly higher but off best levels and slightly higher for the week

• US weekly recap: Nasdaq (+0.91%), Russell 2000 (+0.84%), Dow (+0.50%), S&P 500 (+0.31%)

• Stocks continue to struggle for direction, with the S&P 500 fading an intraday high of 0.56%

• Market largely waiting for this week’s Fed rate decision and high-profile AI events such as Broadcom and Oracle earnings plus OpenAI’s new model

• Carvana, CRH, Comfort Systems replacing LKQ, Solstice Advanced Materials and Mohawk Industries in S&P 500 (CNBC)

• Wall Street analysts believe US stocks could rally double digits in 2026 despite tech spending jitters and ongoing AI bubble (FT)

• Investors look beyond major AI leaders as stocks linked to Google outperform following Gemini 3 rollout, TPU deals (BBG)

• Yen strengthens, JGB futures fall as BOJ readies likely rate hike and further gradual tightening (BBG)

STOCKS

• Netflix enters exclusive talks to buy Warner Bros (BBG)

• Apple at risk of another key departure as Johny Srouji, SVP of hardware technologies, recently told Tim Cook he is considering leaving company in near future (BBG)

• Google Gemini has begun to outpace ChatGPT in terms of download growth, growth of MAUs and growth of time spent (TC)

• Elon Musk says SpaceX not raising money at $800bn valuation (X)

• UBS may cut an additional 10,000 jobs by 2027 (RT)

• Tesla launches lower-priced Model 3 in Europe to boost sales (RT)

• HP sales outlook misses expectations, deals for some AI servers delayed, shares briefly dip 10% (BBG)

• China AI chipmaker Moore Threads Technology surges 500% in trading debut (BBG)

TARIFFS

• US trade negotiation team to visit India next week for more talks on a trade agreement (BBG)

• France's Macron warns EU may be forced to take 'strong measures' against China, including tariffs, if Beijing fails to address widening trade imbalance (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Hassett says Fed should cut by 25 bp next week, wants to see "much lower rate" over long run (BBG)

• BOJ officials prepared to hike rates later this month if no major economic or market shocks occur (BBG)

• Reserve Bank of India cuts repo rate by 25 bp as expected, retains neutral policy bias following sharp fall in inflation (BBG)

ECONOMY

• China's exports likely rebounded in November as manufacturers rushed inventory ahead of US-China tariff truce (RT)

• Japan household spending unexpectedly contracts, potentially complicating BOJ rate outlook (BBG)

• Eurozone GDP up 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, beating initial estimate as investment and consumption drove growth (BBG)

• German factory orders jump 1.5% in October on military and transport demand (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• ASX 200 rebalance, effective prior to open on 22-Dec

  • Additions: Aussie Broadband (ABB), NexGen Energy (NXG), Ora Banda Mining (OBM), Pantoro Gold (PNR), Resolute Mining (RSG), Silex Systems (SLX)

  • Removals: Bapcor (BAP), Boss Energy (BOE), Corporate Travel Management (CTD), HMC Capital (HMC), Inghams Group (ING), IPH (IPH)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Copper froth: Copper is all the rage right now, driven by a broad range of tailwinds including a widening deficit in 2026, ongoing supply squeeze, AI/decarbonisation demand and tariff fears. LME copper prices gained 1.2% overnight and up almost 8% in the last two weeks to a record US$11,653 a tonne. The Global X Copper Miner ETF (+1.2%) closed at record highs overnight but faded early gains of 2.7%. Very bullish backdrop and copper price, though a little overextended.

• Waiting mode: Not a whole lot of price action/volume out there. S&P 500 sitting around all-time highs, ASX 200 loitering around the 200-day moving average. We have the RBA rate decision on Tuesday (ests: hold at 3.60%) and Fed on Thursday (ests: 25 bp cut to 3.75%). The ASX 200 hasn't performed all that bad considering the ongoing V-shape move in bond yields, with the Aussie 10-year up 55 bps since late October to 4.71%.

BROKER MOVES

• Greatland Resources initiated Sector Perform with $7.70 target (RBC)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Mon 8 Dec: None

• Tue 9 Dec: Beacon Minerals (BCN) – $0.05

• Wed 10 Dec: WCM Global Growth (WQG) – $0.02

• Thu 11 Dec: Premier Investments (PMV) – $0.50 

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 2:00 pm: China Balance of Trade (Nov)