Evening Wrap: ASX 200 dips as investors price in two rate hikes... But who cares when one has silver stocks!?

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 6.5 points lower, down 0.08%.

ASX Stocks are sagging under the weight of substantially higher expectations for official interest rates in the wake of yesterday's hawkish RBA Board meeting.

But who cares about all that economics stuff when we have silver stocks!? Yes, the ASX 200 does have some redeeming features – and in the case of silver stocks today – quite a few gleaming features 😉.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 6.5 points lower at 8,579.4, 0.37% from its session high and 0.20% from its low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) – nearly identical to yesterday – advancers lagged decliners by a rather decisive 90 to 181.

Fund flows: Back to script... rates not mates

Let's put the Gold Sub-Index (XGD) (+4.1%) aside for a second – because that thing is up and down like a yo-yo!

Resources (XJR) (+1.1%) up – best on the day, Information Technology (XIJ) (-1.5%) down – worst on the day.

Local risk-free rates were again the major culprit, rising sharply after yesterday's hawkish RBA Board meeting and post-meeting presser with Gov Bullock. Take a look at the market's current pricing of the cash rate over the next 18 months:

Remember all that talk in the media not too long ago about two more cuts in 2026... heck, I think we were actually supposed to get one this year... Well that's now a full 0.25% hike by June, and another by May 2027.

It's no surprise that investors appetite to keep hoovering up stocks after October's heroics has waned. But, as is often the case, when the sting has been removed (let's assume the move in rates is done and it doesn't get any worse than what you see above), its usually not too long before investors start to feel better again and regain their bad news amnesia.

As for the rest of the sectors, it was the usual cohort of high P/E ratio (i.e., long duration) and bond proxies that underperformed today: Financials (XFJ) (-0.4%), Health Care (XHJ) (-0.4%), Communication Services (XTJ) (-0.6%), Real Estate (XPJ) (-0.6%).

Stock Specific: Sublime silver! 🥈🏆

But who cares about all that economics stuff when we have silver stocks!? Yes, the Old Tin Pot does have some redeeming features – and in the case of silver stocks today – quit a few gleaming features 😉. I'll let you scroll down to the Interesting Moves section below to see how basically all of them bolted today, but as ChartWatch Markets is on a little hiatus, I did want to show you my latest silver chart.

For those who are regular attendees of my new ChartWatch *LIVE* Webinars, +R, =R, or -R? 🤔

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ChartWatch

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Analysis

We have ground to a pre-holiday halt: There’s very little motivation among the demand and the supply-sides to really engage, nor do they apparently feel that prices should be very much different from roughly where they presently are.

But that’s not a bad thing. I propose that the longer we remain chopping and churning within the present “zone of malaise” – the more decisive will be the break either way.

What do you peg the odds of a break down – in line with the strong prevailing short term downtrend ribbon, i.e., back through the bottom of the long term trend ribbon – and all but snuffing out the long term uptrend? 📉🤔

But just because the Old Tin Pot is behaving very Old Tin Pot-like, we cannot completely discount the possibility of the short term price action recovering to trade back above that short term downtrend ribbon – which is now in very close proximity… another kick of the bull market so to speak… 📈🤔

Is it 60:40 scenario 1 to scenario 2? 70:30 📉?

Or are you an optimist – perhaps 30:70 📈?

Really, your answer to this question will help shape your view of your portfolio risk.

Today’s candle, and pretty lousy market breadth (90-181 in the ASX 300 equals 2 stocks down for every one that rose!) – puts me in the 60:40 camp.

I don’t think it’s much more decisive than that… but it’s still a MOTN (More Often Than Not) down proposition…

Here’s hoping the OTP can prove me wrong!!! 🤞

View

I remain comfortable at 1/3RP 🪣 (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit (Risk Position) for my investments in Australian stocks is 33%).

Key levels

8383 is the closest point of demand. A close below this price would confirm the new long term downtrend (i.e., that the bull market in ASX stocks is over! 🤯). The short term trend ribbon is the closest zone of supply (presently 8630-8678). In the absence of other confirming demand-side control signals, the ASX 200 must close back above this zone to demonstrate the demand-side is back in control.

Economy

Today

• CHN November Consumer Price Index (CPI) & Producer Price Index (PPI)

  • CPI: +0.7% p.a. vs +0.7% p.a. forecast and +0.2% p.a. in October

  • PPI: -2.2% p.a. vs -2.0% p.a. forecast and -2.1% p.a. in October (i.e., worse than expected)

Later this week

Thursday

• 06:00 USA Federal Reserve December FOMC Meeting

  • -0.25% to 3.75% forecast

  • Economic projections (plus Dot Plot), and FOMC Statement also due

• 06:30 USA Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell press conference

• 11:30 AUS November Employment

  • Change: +20,300 forecast vs +42,200 in October

  • Unemployment rate: 4.4% forecast vs 4.3% in October

Friday

• 05:00 USA 30-y Bond Auction

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +17.1% Andean Silver (ASL) – No news, general strength across the broader Silver sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +16.2% Droneshield (DRO) – No news, general strength across the broader Defence sector today.

• +16.2% Investigator Resources (IVR) – No news, general strength across the broader Silver sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +15.6% Boab Metals (BML) – Capital Cost and Project Delivery Timeline Reductions, general strength across the broader Silver sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +13.1% Unico Silver (USL) – No news, general strength across the broader Silver sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +11.5% Challenger Gold (CEL) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend 🔎📈

• +10.9% St Barbara (SBM) – Feasibility Study confirms Simberi as a High-Quality Asset, Strategic Agreement for Simberi Expansion, and Touquoy Restart to Proceed to Permitting, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend 🔎📈

• +10.0% Benz Mining Corp. (BNZ) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend, added to ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list yesterday 🔎📈

• +9.2% Argosy Minerals (AGY) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +8.8% Larvotto Resources (LRV) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend 🔎📈

• +7.9% HOT Chili (HCH) – Near-Surface, Higher-Grade Cu-Au Core Confirmed at La Verde, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.9% Silver Mines (SVL) – No news, general strength across the broader Silver sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.8% Immutep (IMM) – Continued positive response to 08-Dec Immutep enters into Strategic Collaboration with Dr. Reddy's.

• +7.8% EDU Holdings (EDU) – Continued positive response to 09-Dec Becoming a Substantial Holder, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.3% Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN) – Continued positive response to 09-Dec Thai Government Update, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.1% Elevra Lithium (ELV) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.0% Alkane Resources (ALK) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend 🔎📈

• +6.8% Wildcat Resources (WC8) – Bolt Cutter Central Lithium Discovery Expands, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.8% Lake Resources (LKE) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.0% Sunrise Energy Metals (SRL) – No news, general strength across the broader Battery Materials sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.0% WIA Gold (WIA) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.0% 4DMEDICAL (4DX) – University of Miami adopts CTVQ, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, added to ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list today 🔎📈

• +5.9% Symal Group (SYL) – Symal accelerates QLD expansion with strategic acquisitions and Acquisition of Timms Group and L&D Contracting Presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.8% Sun Silver (SS1) – No news since 09-Dec Resource grows 59Moz to 539Moz AgEq at 71g/t, general strength across the broader Silver sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.7% Lumos Diagnostics Holdings (LDX) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -13.2% European Lithium (EUR) – CRML executes term sheet for JV for 50% offtake Tanbreez.

• -12.0% Cogstate (CGS) – Cogstate Business Update.

• -6.8% Race Oncology (RAC) – Race Oncology Completes $3.22m Private Placement and Change of Company Name, fall is consistent with prevailing long term downtrend 🔎📉

• -5.1% Reliance Worldwide Corp. (RWC) – No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.6% Iluka Resources (ILU) – No news, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing long term downtrend 🔎📉

• -4.1% Pro Medicus (PME) – No news, general weakness across the broader Information Technology sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and falling peaks and falling troughs, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

Broker Moves

Bapcor (BAP)

• Retained at hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $2.00 from $2.45

• Retained at hold at CLSA; Price Target: $1.85 from $2.40

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.05

• Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $1.95 from $2.75

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.30 from $3.02

BHP Group (BHP)

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $45.00

Black Pearl Group (BPG)

• Initiated at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.45

CAR Group (CAR)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $42.20

Chalice Mining (CHN)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.00 from $4.10

Coles Group (COL)

• Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $21.00

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $25.00

Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure (DBI)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.33 from $4.91

• Retained at accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $5.10 from $4.73

Flight Centre Travel Group (FLT)

• Upgraded to buy from hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $15.20 from $12.95

Insurance Australia Group (IAG)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $8.80

Immutep (IMM)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.60 from $0.46

Lifestyle Communities (LIC)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $7.00

Lotus Resources (LOT)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.28

Mirvac Group (MGR)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.60

Metro Mining (MMI)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.15 from $0.17

Megaport (MP1)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $21.70 from $18.50

Mesoblast (MSB)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.00

QBE Insurance Group (QBE)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $23.00 from $23.50

Strickland Metals (STK)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.60

Suncorp Group (SUN)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $24.40 from $24.15

Virgin Australia Holdings (VGN)

• Upgraded to outperform from hold at CLSA; Price Target: $3.52 from $3.46

Scans