Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 flat ahead of Fed decision, Silver prices surge to all-time highs

ASX 200 futures are up 16pts (+0.18%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks mixed, with small caps and pockets of tech/growth higher

• Markets mostly in waiting mode ahead of tonight's Fed interest rate decision

• Gold higher but silver captured the spotlight after ripping 4.4% to a record US$60.7

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 gave back early gains to close near worst levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks mostly lower, closed near session lows

• Another relatively directionless day, ahead of tonight’s FOMC meeting and key AI events from Broadcom, Oracle and OpenAI

• October JOLTs job openings ahead at 7.67m vs. 7.11m ests, the likely driver behind the US 10-year creeping 1 bp higher to a fresh three-month high

• Global bond yields continue to climb to uncomfortable levels amid a broad hawkish central bank tilt (ex-Fed)

• Goldman Sachs clients scale back bullish view on AI and US stocks , but still expect S&P 500 to end between 7,000-7,500 next year (BBG)

• Investors invested $105bn in US money market funds, a cautious move ahead of Fed's policy decision (RT)

• Markets bet on 2026 Eurozone rate hike, Fed to continue cutting (FT)

STOCKS

• Paramount says $108bn bid for Warner Bros surpasses Netflix, offers $18bn more cash and easier approval (RT)

• Nvidia allowed to export H200 chips to China, Trump says similar approach will be taken with AMD, Intel (BBG)

• Pentagon selects Google's Gemini to deliver AI capability for its three million civilian and military employees (BBG)

• JPMorgan discloses higher-than-expected expense forecasts for next year, shares dip 4.6pc (CNBC)

• Microsoft reveals $23bn investments in India and Canada for AI development (RT)

• Goldman Sachs CFO says he expects M&A momentum to continue into 2026 (RT)

• Google's TPU-powered Gemini 3 outperforms GPT-5, spurring investor concern and OpenAI "code red" (FT )

• PepsiCo to cut prices and reduce nearly 20% of product offerings under deal with activist investor (BBG)

• Thyssenkrupp forecasts return to loss and negative cash flow in 2025-26 (BBG)

TARIFFS

• China AI chip sales to undergo special security review in US before exported (WSJ)

• Trump threatens further 5% tariff on Mexico over water dispute (YF)

• Trump signals new tariffs on agricultural products including Canadian fertiliser, Indian rice (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Hassett says there is 'plenty of room' to cut rates (YF)

• RBA on hold, remains data-dependent, though inflation risks tilting to upside (BBG)

ECONOMY

• US job openings rise to five-month high of 7.67m in October vs. 7.11m ests but layoffs in the same month jumped to 1.85m (BBG)

• Markets watch China summit for 2026 policy clues, economists expect ~5% growth target to boost confidence (BBG)

• Australian business conditions weaken amid capacity constraint pressures (RT)

ASX TODAY

• BHP sold 49% of WA iron-ore power network to BlackRock's GIP for $2bn (BHP’s net debt was US$12.9bn in FY25), supporting greater capital efficiency and releasing value in tied-up infrastructure (BHP)

• Iress shareholders continue to push board to consider sale (AFR)

• South32 considering bid for BHP’s West Musgrave nickel mine, may also consider selling its Cannington silver mine next year (The Aus)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Aussie rates: Overnight indexed swaps have priced in ~20% likelihood of a hike next and the first hike fully priced by June. RBA commentary was relatively hawkish, and given the current inflation and jobs/demand data, it wouldn’t be surprising to see this trend continue. 

• Gold/silver: Gold slightly higher overnight but silver ripped 4.4% to a record US$60.7/oz. Very strong response for gold/silver miners, with GDX and SIL ETFs up 3.5% and 4.9% respectively. Should be a strong session for local goldies and silver (not many names to choose from, SVL, USL and SS1 come to mind, also S32 (~1/3 NAV is silver-zinc-lead).

BROKER MOVES

Still waiting on broker data

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Wed 10 Dec: WCM Global Growth (WQG) – $0.02

• Thu 11 Dec: Premier Investments (PMV) – $0.50, Solvar (SVR) – $0.025

• Fri 12 Dec: Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure (DBI) – $0.061, Metcash (MTS) – $0.085, Sandon Capital (SNC) – $0.005

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: Tamawood (TWD) – Waypoint REIT (WPR) 

• Earnings: Ricegrowers (SGLLV)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: Myer (MYR), Westpac (WBC)

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 12:30 pm: China inflation (Nov)

• 1:45 am: Bank of Canada rate decision (Ests: Hold at 2.25%)

• 6:00 am: Fed rate decision (Ests: 25 bp cut to 3.75%)