ASX 200 Live Today - Wednesday, 10th December

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Wednesday, December 10. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. It'll wrap up around 2:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 flat, 10-year hits 4.8%

[2:05 pm] ASX 200 sitting around breakeven and slightly below the 200-day. The index feels a little weak and this weakness around the 200-day does give a rather bearish vibe. Aussie yields continue to climb in a V-shape manner, with the 10-year now crossing 4.80% for the first time since October 2023. On the weekly chart, the 10-year is on the cusp of closing at the highest level since 2011. This is not a good look and typically places downward pressure on long-duration sectors like tech and yield-sensitive sectors like real estate and utilities. Tonight, we have the Fed's rate decision, where a 25 bp cut is widely expected and commentary is set to lean hawkish.

Australia 10-year government bond yield (Source: TradingView)

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Gold stocks hover session highs

[1:09 pm] Most large cap gold names are trading around intraday highs. Ramelius has topped the leaderboard after announcing a $250 million on-market buyback and higher dividend policy.

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Bell Financial Group rallies 8%

[12:10 pm] Shares in Bell Financial Group rallied as much as 10% in early trade ($1.29) and currently up 8.0% ($1.27) after announcing:

• Unaudited profit before tax of $48.2m for the 11 months to November 2025

• This represents a year-on-year increase of 17% and a turnaround on the first half, where profit before tax was $13.6m (down 44% year-on-year)

• "The improvement has been driven by further growth across our Technology & Platforms and Products & Services divisions, and a strong second half in our Equity Capital Markets and Retail and Institutional broking businesses."

Company page: Bell Financial Group (BFG)

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Top ASX 200 gainers and losers

[11:28 am] Virgin has topped the leaderboards after falling to near record lows, while higher gold prices has propped most gold names 3-4% higher in early trade. Meanwhile, rare earth and once high-flying tech names like Zip and Pro Medicus continue to trend lower.

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ASX 200 flat, miners lead

[10:59 am] ASX 200 currently 0.07% higher, fading early gains of 0.29% and trading slightly below the key 200-day moving average. The Materials index is up 0.57%, recouping most of yesterday's decline. Not a whole lot see as the market continues to work its way through the recent bond yield back up and hawkish rhetoric.

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Analysts' take on Bapcor

[10:15 am] Bapcor downgraded its FY26 guidance on Tuesday following a weaker-than-expected October and November trade period. The stock nosedived 20.6%, now down 60% year-to-date and trading at 20-year lows.

Highlights from yesterday's blog post:

• "Trading performance in October and November was below expectation mainly in the Trade segment."

• "Trade is also investing in pricing across specific parts categories to regain market share. The price reductions have adversely impacted margins in the short term but are expected to drive volume growth in the future."

• Retail revenue has been solid, with October and November revenues up 1.3% year-on-year

• First-half FY26 to record statutory net loss of $5-8 million

• FY26 underlying NPAT guidance of $44-49m

• Above guidance represents a 42% year-on-year decline at the midpoint and 15.4% below Citi expectations of $55m

Here's what analysts are thinking:

• Canaccord Genuity: Hold, target lowered from $2.45 to $2.00. Highlights structural market share losses in Trade, weak staff engagement, and short-term earnings pain despite longer-term value.

• Morgans: Hold, target lowered from $2.75 to $1.95. Flags weak internal visibility, elevated turnaround execution risk, and balance sheet concerns due to leverage breach.

• Citi: Neutral, target cut from $3.10 to $2.28. Cut FY26-28 NPAT estimates by 16-31%, unsure if product price reductions in underperforming trade business will delivery any improved performance. Gearing is now a concern.

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Silver stocks open sharply higher

[10:10 am] An unsurprisingly strong open for silver names, with most up double digit percentages. Andean Silver and Sun Silver are the two notable names that gapped up and continue to trend higher in early trade.

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Silver soars to all-time highs

[9:45 am] Another historic move for silver overnight, up 4.4% to a record US$60.6/lb. It's now one of the best commodities year-to-date, up 110% (vs. gold up 60%).

Silver price chart (Source: TradingView)

The ASX is a little thin in terms of silver exposure, with Adriatic Metals acquired by Canada's Dundee Precious Metals back in June for ~$1.25 billion. It's now mostly explorers, with names like Silver Mines (SVL), Unico Silver (USL), Andean Silver (ASL) and Sun Silver (SS1).

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Morgan Stanley's take on rates

[9:30 am] Morgan Stanley joins the consensus on upside risks to inflation and rates, but still sees an extended hold as the most likely outcome.

• Inflation persistence is the key near-term focus, with recent CPI showing a broad pick-up. January inflation print will be key

• A Q4 core CPI result of 1.0% quarter-on-quarter or above could trigger a February hike, though this is not Morgan Stanley’s base case

• Strong private-sector momentum remains an upside risk for capacity pressures and labour-market tightness

• Any move back toward rate cuts will require weaker spending and labour-market data, not just softer inflation. Morgan Stanley still expects cuts in August and November 2026 to 3.1%

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Lotus proposes 1-for-11.5 share consolidation

[9:23 am] Lotus Resources proposes a 1-for-11.5 share consolidation, with a shareholder vote to take place on 16 January 2026.

Lotus shares closed at 17 cents on Monday, which means the consolidation will bring the share price to the ~$2.00 level.

Personally, I'm a big fan of share consolidations, especially for stocks trading in the 10-20 cent range, provided their market cap has reached an appropriate level. If you're a 17 cent stock, the next tick up is 17.5 cents (or a 2.9% move). It usually results in a stacked order book (a ton of buyers at 17 cents and a ton of sellers at 17.5 cents) and a share price that just ping pongs back and forth.

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Symal Group acquires Timms Group and L&D Contracting

[9:20 am] Symal Group to acquire Timms Group and L&D Contracting for an upfront cost of $28 million.

Timms Group is a self-performing, integrated civil and haulage contractor with additional operations in construction and demolition materials repurposing. L&D Contracting is also a self-performing and integrated civil contractor.

The $28 million upfront payment will be funded from cash reserves. A further earn-out is payable at roughly 2.0× incremental FY26 EBITDA above $8 million.

The acquisitions are expected to deliver around $8 million of annualised underlying EBITDA in FY26 (vs. Symal FY25 EBITDA of $106.1m) and be EPS accretive in the first year of ownership.

Company page: Symal Group (SYL)

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Ramelius Resources announces $250m buyback program

[9:08 am] Ramelius' board has approved up to $250 million in share buybacks and an increase in the minimum dividend to 2 cents per share (per annum).

"This capital management initiative is underpinned by our track record of consistently delivering strong free cash flow and our confidence that it will continue into the future. Importantly, we remain fully funded, our production profile is growing and we anticipate further increases in our free cash flow returns," said Managing Director Mark Zeptner.

The $250 million buyback is equal to approximately 3.8% of the company's current market cap, and will run from December 2025 to June 2027.

Company page: Ramelius Resources (RMS)

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Overnight headlines that caught my eye

[9:05 am] A few high-profile announcements/catalysts that caught my eye overnight.

Exxon Mobil is surprisingly trading near all-time highs despite the relatively weak energy backdrop. The stock gained 1.9% overnight and up 12.5% YTD. Exxon said it expects US$35bn in cash flow growth by 2030, an increase of approximately 17% since its forecasts a year ago, with no increase in capex. Also cut its low-carbon investments to US$20bn (from US$30bn) amid weak customer demand for hydrogen and policy uncertainty.

JPMorgan shares dipped 4.6% after the investment bank said it expects spending US$105bn next year. The biggest driver of the expected cost growth is “volume- and growth-related expenses,” noted Bloomberg.

Home Depot shares slipped 1.3% (down 9.75% YTD), noted housing market headwinds to continue to weigh on demand, with the retailer issuing below-consensus preliminary guidance for next year. HD guided to flat-to-2% FY26 comparable sales, which sit below consensus expectations. CFO says pressures likely to persist into 2026 with no catalyst yet for a housing activity inflection.

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US consumers still spending but becoming more selective

[8:53 am] Day one of the Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference highlighted a resilient but increasingly value-driven US consumer.

• Wells Fargo and PNC said spending remains strong, with PNC noting rising balances across all income cohorts

• Synchrony reported Q3 spending momentum carried into October and November, with improving transaction volumes even in non-prime segments

• JPMorgan flagged more trade-down behaviour and promo sensitivity, but said financial distress levels remain normal

• Multiple banks noted caution around big-ticket items, echoed by Home Depot citing job worries and higher financing costs

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US job openings ahead of consensus

[8:50 am] October JOLTS data shows resilient demand for workers, though hiring, quits and separations continue to ease.

• Job openings rose to 7.67m, the highest since May and above consensus expectations of 7.11m

• Hiring rate dipped to 3.2% and separations fell to 3.2%, signalling reduced labour market churn

• Quit rate fell to 1.8%, the lowest since May 2020

• However, layoffs in October rose to 1.85m, the highest since 2023

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Global policy tone turns more hawkish

[8:45 am] A shift in monetary policy expectations is driving a global bond selloff, with markets increasingly pricing rate hikes rather than cuts.

• Australia, Canada and New Zealand have joined Japan in newly pricing rate hikes into forward curves, notes Goldman Sachs

• ECB now more likely to raise rates in 2026 than cut, with Schnabel signalling comfort with market pricing and highlighting upside risks to growth and inflation

• RBA held rates but warned of stronger demand and rising inflation risks

• BoJ expected to hike next week, with Governor Ueda offering no pushback and noting Japan has weathered US tariff shocks as inflation edges toward target

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RBA priced to hike by mid-2026

[8:43 am] Aussie overnight indexed swaps now pricing in a ~20% likelihood of an RBA hike next February, with the first 25 bp hike fully priced by June.

AMP's Shane Oliver says the recent 180 with rate expectations is a little premature and extreme, noting that: "On balance we expect to see the cash rate remain at 3.6% in 2026, with the swing back to rate hikes more a story for 2027. But we concede that the risks look like they are now a bit more to the upside on rates in 2026."

"However, our assessment is that the swing in the money market from expecting 2 or 3 more cuts after the August RBA meeting to now expecting nearly two hikes next year is premature and a bit too extreme."

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Good morning!

[8:30 am] ASX 200 futures are up 16pts (+0.18%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks mixed, with S&P 500 (-0.09%) and Dow (-0.38%) lower but Nasdaq (+0.13%) and Russell 2000 (+0.32%) higher

• Markets mostly in waiting mode ahead of tonight's Fed interest rate decision

• Gold prices gained 0.5% and trading above the US$4,200 level, but silver captured the spotlight after ripping 4.4% to a record US$60.7

Catch up on all the overnight moves and news via today's Morning Wrap.