Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to fall, S&P 500 retreats from record high as tech stocks remain under pressure

ASX 200 futures are down 51pts (-0.58%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks lower, with the S&P 500 closing out the week down 0.63%

• Broadcom dipped 11% despite a solid quarterly result and massive $73bn backlog

• Commodities mostly lower after recent breakout move, with copper (-2.3%) and silver (-2.6%) leading the pullback

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 gapped down, trended lower, closed slightly off worst levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks lower, slightly off worst levels

• Today’s big story – Tech stocks sold off sharply as Broadcom shares dipped despite solid earnings and Oracle’s balance sheet angst continues to weigh on sentiment

• US weekly recap: Russell 2000 (+1.19%), Dow (+1.05%), S&P 500 (-0.63%) and Nasdaq (-1.62%)

• Busy day for Fedspeak with Goolsbee saying he dissented amid lack of inflation data, Schmid dissent reflects continued view that inflation is too high and policy should remain modestly restrictive

• Seagate, Western Digital, Alnylam, Ferrovial, Insmed, Monolithic Power Systems to join Nasdaq 100 (BBG)

• Hedge funds buying into physical commodities markets like transport rights, energy storage in search of new source of returns (FT)

• Clean energy stocks a big 2025 outperformer as analysts remain upbeat about sector due to soaring power demand (BBG)

• China's Vanke loses state backing, exposing $50bn debt risk threatening broader Chinese property/developer stability (BBG)

STOCKS

• Broadcom's AI sales outlook disappoints despite massive $73bn backlog, shares dive 11pc (BBG)

• Oracle share rout erases $25bn from Ellison's net worth after heavy AI spending and weak guidance (BBG)

• ServiceNow in talks to buy cybersecurity startup Armis for ~$7bn (BBG)

• SpaceX tells employees it is preparing for possible IPO next year, discloses new share price at ~$800bn valuation (WSJ)

• Salesforce hikes prices for apps using its data, squeezing developers and raising customer costs (TI)

• Lululemon CEO to resign end of January amid operational struggles, shares surge 9.6pc (BBG)

• Costco beats estimates as shoppers flock for affordable essentials (AX)

• Uber plans robotaxi service expansion to 10 plus markets by end of 2026 (BBG)

TARIFFS

• White House rushing to deposit tariff money into US Treasury, which could limit possible refunds if Supreme Court rules against Trump (POL)

• US seeking to expand defence relationship with Vietnam as two sides work to finalise trade deal (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Fed's Daly supports December cut, balances goals of lowering inflation and supporting labor market (RT)

• Trump's Fed chair pick will likely push rate cuts but other policymakers may block unwarranted easing (NYT)

• BOJ to hike rates to 0.75% this week and signal further hikes ahead (BBG)

ECONOMY

• Beijing planning to increase exports and imports in 2026, promote sustainable trade (RT)

ASX TODAY

• A pretty quiet morning so far, just a heads up that the last Morning Wrap of the year will be this Friday, 19 December

• Ioneer may be considering bid to consolidate its boron-lithium project with Rio Tinto’s US Boron unit (BBG)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Tech weakness: Tech was the main detractor overnight as concerns surrounding AI infrastructure, debt and ROI continues to intensify. Though local tech names (QOR, TNE, PME, WTC, XRO, CAT etc.) have mostly been sold to oblivion for mostly valuation reasons (plus some poor M&A/governance issues). The path of least resistance remains lower, but they're starting to look awfully oversold.

• Commodities pullback: Miners are likely going to take a breather after most commodities slipped overnight, with notable declines from copper (-2.3%) and silver (-2.6%). Most resource-related ETFs were lower overnight, with notable declines from Uranium (-6.0%) and Strategic Metals (-3.3%).

BROKER MOVES

• CSL downgraded to Neutral from Outperform; target cut to $188 from $275 (MQG)

• Generation Development Group initiated Outperform with $6.70 target (MQG)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Mon 15 Dec: Fleetpartners Group (FPR) – $0.136

• Tue 16 Dec: Plato Income Maximiser (PL8) – $0.006, Whitefield Income (WHI) – $0.006

• Wed 17 Dec: Wam Income Maximiser (WMX) – $0.004

• Thu 18 Dec: None

• Fri 19 Dec: None

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: None

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 1:00 pm: China Industrial Production, Fixed Asset Investment and Retail Sales (NOV)