Evening Wrap: ASX 200 logs second gain as oil price eases, Lynas Rare Earths surges 16% on supply deal, sector follows

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 50.9 points higher, up 0.59%.

The ASX 200 rose for a second consecutive session to 8,743.5 as big banks and resources returned to favour — but high-growth and consumer discretionary stocks were notably absent from the rally.

In stock news:

• Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) (+16.2%) — surged after extending its long-term supply deal with Japan Australia Rare Earths to 2038.

• Ora Banda Mining (OBM) (+21.4%) — soared after upgrading the Round Dam gold resource.

• GQG Partners (GQG) (-5.5%) — dropped despite February FUM rising to US$172.9bn after net outflows of US$3.2bn.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 50.9 points higher at 8,743.5, 0.59% from its session low and 0.18% from its session high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), decliners beat advancers by 149 to 125.

Resources (XJR) (+1.9%) was the best-performing sector as the rally in beaten-down miners continued, Fortescue (FMG) (+3.6%) and BHP Group (BHP) (+1.4%) added to the gains.

Information Technology (XIJ) (-1.5%) was the weakest sector, as selling pressure returned to high-growth names like WiseTech Global (WTC) (-3.6%), Xero (XRO) (-2.2%) and Pro Medicus (PME) (-2.1%).

In commodities, spot gold held above US$5,200/oz in Asian trade, while Brent crude fell 0.3% to US$87.45 a barrel on reports the International Energy Agency (IEA) is considering a record emergency reserve release.

The Gold Sub-Index (XGD) (+1.5%) was nicely higher as major constituent Northern Star Resources (NST) added 3.0%. In Energy (XEJ) (+0.6%), Woodside Energy (WDS) rose 0.8% despite the pullback in oil.

The benchmark lithium carbonate futures contract fell 2.9% to 158,680 CNY/t, giving back some of the gains from the previous two-day rally. Nonetheless, PLS Group (PLS) (+4.9%) and Mineral Resources (MIN) (+5.0%) still extended yesterday’s rally.

Fund flows: Big cap bench-press = 👍

All Big 4 banks up between 0.5% and 1.8%, chuck in Macquarie Group (MQG) (+1.3%) ✅

Resources snapped what was looking like a vicious losing streak — Fortescue (FMG) (+3.7%) + BHP Group (BHP) (+1.4%) + Rio Tinto (RIO) (+1.1%) ✅

And.... there’s your 50 point gain in the ASX 200 today.

Sprinkle on top with Woolworths Group (WOW) (+1.5%) + Woodside Energy Group (WDS) (+0.8%) + Wesfarmers (WES) (+0.5%) — but it’s not like these were needed!

It’s the stuff you buy when you don’t really want to buy stuff… but you kinda have to...

ASX 200 Equal Weight (XEJ) chart

And in the broader market, where there were 125 gainers vs 149 fallers in the ASX 300, it wasn't such an emphatic vote of confidence in Aussie equities. Interestingly, we also saw a disappointing performance from the "Big Rotation" losers (of which I think we can confidently add the XPJ to):

• Information Technology (XIJ) (-1.6%)

• Health Care (XHJ) (-1.4%)

• Communication Services (XTJ) (-0.9%)

• Real Estate (XPJ) (-0.7%)

• Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (-0.2%)

A gain is a gain — we'll take it — but we’re still a long way from the kind of environment where big fund managers appear willing to back the broader market.

Today looked more like index management than genuine risk appetite — money flowing into the largest and most liquid stocks simply because that’s where capital can be deployed without taking too much active risk.

Keep an eye on the XEW. When it starts to keep pace with the XJO, that's when we can be confident the big funds are truly embracing Aussie equities again.

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

Nasdaq Composite Index

Analysis

The Comp’s candles continue to fall rather like clockwork with respect to the ChartWatch technical analysis model… wouldn’t you agree? 🤔

As in, I get Monday’s candle was at odds with the futures the evening prior (about 1000 point reversal)… and it marked the biggest about-face in market sentiment since the Lord of the Flies 🪰 TACO’d 🌮 on his reciprocal tariffs last year — but it was in keeping with the model:

• White candles and downward pointing shadows — i.e. demand-side controlled showings — in the long term uptrend ribbon… versus…

• Black candles and upward pointing shadows — i.e., supply-side controlled showings — in the short term downtrend ribbon.

Like last night’s modest candle, with its upward pointing shadow smack-bang in the short term downtrend ribbon, likely surprises no long term sufferer of my rantings here in the Evening Wrap.

Indeed, the pincer continues to pince! How much longer will we see it tighten its grip on the Comp?

Well, the light pink and dark green zones are getting pretty close together = not much longer is my guess…

Before we get a proper move one way or another. In what direction will that big break occur? You know my answer to that question: no bloody idea mate! 🤷

Can’t tell the future, remember? 🔮

But… I’m confident that the break will be defined by a very big, very black/white candle with a close at/near its low/high — and most importantly: below the long term uptrend ribbon/above the short term uptrend ribbon (respectively!).

Given I’m perfectly placed at 50-50 risk-to-cash, there’s really nothing left to do but break out the popcorn and wait and see! 🍿

View

Tell me how 1/2RP for my US portfolio risk limit is not spot-on! (RP = Risk Position — it reflects my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in US stocks. So 1/2RP is 50%, 2/3RP is 67% and FRP is 100% 🪣).

Key levels

21898-22256 is the critical zone of demand — a close below it implies the supply-side is in control of the Comp's short term price, and that the long term uptrend ribbon (presently 21762-22515) is likely under significant pressure = ⚠️. The short term downtrend ribbon (presently 22808-22917) is the nearest critical zone of point supply, and then the three static points of supply: 22877, 23170 & 23321 are not far beyond that.

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Analysis

That was a one-day amber long term uptrend ribbon. As in:

Monday = 🟩

Tuesday = 🟧

Wednesday = 🟩

Almost never happens! Short term trend ribbon — sure, it likes to party — but the long term trend ribbon is supposed be boring and reliable. It’s supposed to flag long term shifts in market sentiment.

But that’s not quite the market we’re in… is it!? 🤦

And that’s all the more reason for me to continue to tread carefully here.

A decent session for the Old Tin Pot today, white-bodied candle, not huge, but closing near enough to its high to be counted as a credible demand-side showing.

Edging towards the top of the long term trend ribbon ✅

Allowing the OTP to recoup more than half of Monday’s washout candle’s range (8655) ✅

These are all helpful in building the case in the technicals for a potential return to demand-side control.

But I’m not there yet. Not even very close, really. Nope, I still want to see:

• 8457 confirmed as a point of demand with another, higher point of demand (i.e., rising troughs) ⏹️

• A close above the long term trend ribbon, and at least a couple of candles that demonstrate it’s again acting as a zone of dynamic demand (i.e., a couple of downward pointing shadows into the ribbon that suggest buy the dippers are moving in there) ⏹️

And ideally these two:

• A close back above the short term trend ribbon ⏹️

• Ditto on it beginning to behave as a zone of dynamic demand ⏹️

That’s quite a few unchecked boxes… and I know what you’re thinking: “Carl, that could take ages, and by then, all the bargains would have evaporated!”

Yep, maybe on the first item — and so what on the second! I’m not here to find bargains, I’m here to allocate my capital based on highly probably outcomes.

Until I can see the demand-side is back in confident control, I cannot allocate my capital back to risk. And who’s even to say that it will be the positive outcome!? 🤷

It’s totally reasonable to expect we’re already on a slippery slope to a long term trend change… and the bear market that comes with it.

Also consider your definition of a “bargain”. Is it to buy low and sell high like the experts tell you!? Because this strategy requires you to pick the bottom and be very lucky.

A “bargain” for me is anything that goes up after I buy it. And to ensure that the “goes up” part is a MOTN (More Often Than Not) prospect — I must see my trend, price action, candle and volume indicators align accordingly.

If not. No risk for you Mr Market! 🙅

View

1/2RP, logically, is still the right place to be — but bloody hell! 🤦 (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in Australian stocks is 50%)

Key levels

8383-8457 is the closest zone of demand (static). Beyond it — the bear market awaits...⚠️🚨 The ASX 200 must at least close back above the long term uptrend ribbon (presently 8675 - 8783) to reclaim any semblance of demand-side control.

**NEW VIDEO DROPPED — BHP, RIO, FMG, S32 vs OIL PRICE! 📺**

Economy

Today

• 23:30 USA Core CPI m/m

  • +0.2% m/m forecast vs +0.3% m/m previous

Later this week

Thursday

• 11:00 AUS MI Inflation Expectations (+5% m/m previous)

• 23:30 USA Unemployment Claims (+216k w/w forecast vs +213k w/w previous)

Friday

• 00:30 GB GDP m/m (+0.2% p.a. forecast vs +0.1% p.a. previous)

• 11:30 USA Core PCE Price Index m/m (+0.4% m/m forecast vs -0.1% m/m previous)

Saturday

• 01:00 USA JOLTS Job Openings (+6.84 million m/m forecast vs +6.54 million m/m previous)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +21.5% Ora Banda Mining (OBM) – Round Dam Mineral Resource Grows Tenfold to 1.33M Ounces, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +16.2% Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) – Enhanced JARE Agreement for Japanese Industry, general strength across the broader Rare Earths & Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +16.0% Arafura Rare Earths (ARU) – No news, general strength across the broader Rare Earths & Critical Minerals sector today.

• +12.8% Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6) – No news since 10-Mar AMPLIFY trial - Target number of participants achieved.

• +12.8% European Lithium (EUR) – No news, general strength across the broader Rare Earths & Critical Minerals sector today.

• +11.8% Lindian Resources (LIN) – No news, general strength across the broader Rare Earths & Critical Minerals sector today.

• +11.1% EQ Resources (EQR) – No news, general strength across the broader Rare Earths & Critical Minerals sector today.

• +9.4% Iluka Resources (ILU) – No news, general strength across the broader Rare Earths & Critical Minerals sector today.

• +8.7% Brazilian Rare Earths (BRE) – No news, general strength across the broader Rare Earths & Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.9% Larvotto Resources (LRV) – No news, general strength across the broader Rare Earths & Critical Minerals sector today.

• +7.2% Metals X (MLX) – No news, general strength across the broader Rare Earths & Critical Minerals sector today.

• +7.0% Macquarie Technology Group (MAQ) – $200M Hybrid Security Investment by NRFC.

• +6.9% Champion Iron (CIA) – No news, general strength across the broader Iron Ore sector today.

• +6.3% Wildcat Resources (WC8) – Half Yearly Report and Accounts, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today.

• +5.2% Iperionx (IPX) – No news, general strength across the broader Rare Earths & Critical Minerals sector today.

• +5.0% Mineral Resources (MIN) – No news, general strength across the broader Iron Ore sector today.

• +4.9% PLS Group (PLS) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today.

• +4.9% Elevra Lithium (ELV) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today.

• +4.2% Boss Energy (BOE) – Change in substantial holding and Change in substantial holding (Citigroup 10.7% from 7.9%), general strength across the broader Uranium sector today.

• +3.9% Nexgen Energy (NXG) – No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today.

• +3.8% Paladin Energy (PDN) – No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today.

• +3.4% IGO (IGO) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today.

• +3.2% Liontown (LTR) – Becoming a substantial holder (State Street 5.1%), general strength across the broader Lithium sector today.

• +3.1% Develop Global (DVP) – Continued positive response to 10-Mar Half Yearly Report and Accounts, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today.

Trading lower

• -9.5% (GLS) – Monthly Report - February 2026 and Weekly Net Tangible Asset Backing, general weakness across the broader Real Estate sector today.

• -6.2% Aspen Group (APZ) – Change of Director's Interest Notice - D Dixon, Change of Director's Interest Notice - JC, and Change in substantial holding from MFG (2 x director sales plus on fund sell down), general weakness across the broader Real Estate sector today,, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -5.7% Centuria Capital Group (CNI) – No news, general weakness across the broader Real Estate sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -5.6% AGL Energy (AGL) – No news, general weakness across the broader Utilities sector today.

• -5.5% GQG Partners (GQG) – FUM as at 28 February 2026.

• -5.4% Bapcor (BAP) – Ceasing to be a substantial holder, Ceasing to be a substantial holder, and Ceasing to be a substantial holder vs Becoming a substantial holder (JP Morgan, AusSuper, Citigroup selling vs Pinnacle buying!), general weakness across the broader Consumer Discretionary sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, one of the most Featured (highest conviction) stocks in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -5.0% Accent Group (AX1) – General weakness across the broader Consumer Discretionary sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, one of the most Featured (highest conviction) stocks in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.8% Life360 (360) – No news, general weakness across the broader Information Technology sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.7% BetaShares Crude Oil ETF (OOO) – No news, (Crude oil ETF, weaker oil price overnight).

• -4.6% Catapult Sports (CAT) – No news, general weakness across the broader Information Technology sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

Broker Moves

Alcoa Corporation (AAI)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $71.00

AGL Energy (AGL)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.61 from $10.40

Ama Group (AMA)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.25

Eagers Automotive (APE)

• Upgraded to buy from hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $28.50 from $28.75

Astron Corporation (ATR)

• Retained at speculative buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.90

Bega Cheese (BGA)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.60

Boss Energy (BOE)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $1.60

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $124.00

Collins Foods (CKF)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $11.20

Coles Group (COL)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $23.70

Coronado Global Resources Inc (CRN)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $0.36

CSL (CSL)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $241.34

Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $6.40

Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP)

• Upgraded to neutral from underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $20.40

Downer EDI (DOW)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.70

Deterra Royalties (DRR)

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $4.20

Endeavour Group (EDV)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.40

Frontier Digital Ventures (FDV)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.56 from $0.55

Fortescue (FMG)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $20.00

Guzman Y Gomez (GYG)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $27.30

Hansen Technologies (HSN)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $6.99

Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.60

Iluka Resources (ILU)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $5.25

Inghams Group (ING)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.80

JB Hi-Fi (JBH)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $106.00

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $22.00 from $18.60

• Upgraded to buy from hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $24.00 from $15.50

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $18.50

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $17.70

Mader Group (MAD)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $10.20

MAAS Group Holdings (MGH)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.25

Mineral Resources (MIN)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $68.00

Medallion Metals (MM8)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.95

Monadelphous Group (MND)

• Downgraded to neutral from outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $33.95

Medibank Private (MPL)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $5.10

Metallium (MTM)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.60

Metcash (MTS)

• Downgraded to hold from buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $3.45 from $4.00

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.50

National Australia Bank (NAB)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $47.00

Nick Scali (NCK)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $21.60

NIB Holdings (NHF)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $7.70

NRW Holdings (NWH)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.60

Origin Energy (ORG)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $11.25

Orica (ORI)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $28.50

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $25.05 from $27.10

• Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $26.00 from $27.00

• Upgraded to positive from neutral at E&P; Price Target: $24.73

• Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $25.73 from $28.50

• Retained at overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $26.10 from $26.30

• Upgraded to buy from accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $25.50 from $26.00

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $27.00 from $27.50

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $27.00

Paladin Energy (PDN)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $12.60

Pantoro Gold (PNR)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.20 from $6.05

• Upgraded to buy from hold at Moelis Australia; Price Target: $4.85 from $6.05

Perenti (PRN)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.70

Qantas Airways (QAN)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $12.10

QBE Insurance Group (QBE)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $23.80

Rio Tinto (RIO)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $140.00

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $160.00

South32 (S32)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $5.10

Sims (SGM)

• Upgraded to neutral from sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $20.00 from $16.30

Sigma Healthcare (SIG)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.20

Service Stream (SSM)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.75

Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $31.00

Torque Metals (TOR)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.55

Temple & Webster Group (TPW)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $13.70

Treasury Wine Estates (TWE)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.30

Ventia Services Group (VNT)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.55

Wesfarmers (WES)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $92.00

Westgold Resources (WGX)

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $8.75 from $8.50

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.50

Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $7.70

Worley (WOR)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $15.00

Woolworths Group (WOW)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $34.50

Zip Co (ZIP)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.35

Scans