Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 gives back gains, Oil whipsaws higher

ASX 200 futures are up 24 pts (+0.27%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks finished mostly lower, gave back early gains to close around session lows

• S&P 500 faded a 0.72% gain in early trade as latest Iran updates suggest no de-escalation, limited Strait of Hormuz activity and continued energy production cuts from Gulf oil giants

• WTI crude dipped as much as ~9% after US Energy Chief Wright posted that the navy escorted a vessel through the Strait, he then immediately deleted the post, sending oil prices back towards breakeven

Let's dive in.

Overnight Summary

Wed 11 Mar 26, 8:21am (AEST)

Name	Value	% Chg
Major Indices
S&P 500	6,781	-0.21%
Dow Jones	47,707	-0.07%
NASDAQ Comp	22,697	+0.01%
Russell 2000	2,548	-0.22%
Country Indices
Canada	33,271	+0.25%
China	4,123	+0.65%
Germany	23,969	+2.39%
Hong Kong	25,960	+2.17%
India	78,206	+0.82%
Japan	54,248	+2.88%
United Kingdom	10,412	+1.59%

Name	Value	% Chg
Commodities (USD)
Gold	5,190.72	+1.00%
Copper	5.87	+1.20%
WTI Oil	86.39	-8.81%
Currency
AUD/USD	0.7124	+0.06%
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin (USD)	70,305	+1.72%
Ethereum (AUD)	2,871	+0.53%
Miscellaneous
US 10 Yr T-bond	4.136	0.00%
VIX	24.93	-2.24%

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 faded from session highs, finished lower and near worst levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks mostly lower, faded early gains to close near session lows

• Today’s big story – Latest Iran updates suggest no off-ramp, with reports Iran has started to deploy mines in the Strait of Hormuz. US Energy Chief Wright posted on X that the US Navy successfully escorted a tanker through the strait, sending WTI down ~9%. He then almost immediately deleted the post, which reversed prices back towards positive territory    

• Markets betting Trump will end war soon despite ongoing verbal threats from both sides (RT)

• Deutsche Bank upgrades US and European tech sector, turns 'overweight' on software (ET)

• US insiders net sellers in February, largest buy-sell gap since Jul-24 (RT)

• Investors boost bets on US dollar strength as correlation between dollar and oil turns sharply positive (BBG)

• Middle East conflict, AI, and private credit create simultaneous market shocks (BBG)

• Volatility spike drives outperformance of tail-risk strategies such as leveraged funds tied to VIX (BBG)

• EM stocks and currencies among best performers after Trump-Iran reversal, gauge tracking EM currencies closed the session 0.9% higher (BBG)

ENERGY

• Trump administration asked Israel not to carry out further strikes on energy facilities in Iran (AX)

• US gasoline prices top US$3.50 per gallon, highest level since 2024 (CNBC)

• Iraq oil production cut even further as Baghdad seeks to restart flows of Kirkuk grade (BBG)

• US energy secretary deletes post about Navy escorting vessel through Strait of Hormuz (YH)

• US raised its forecast for domestic oil production next year, crude output to grow 220,000 bpd to 13.83mbpd (BBG)

• EU commissioner signals readiness to release strategic oil reserves due to Iran war disruptions (BBG)

• G7 nations weighs largest ever releases of strategic oil reserves (FT), 

• US tells G7 nations Russia oil sanctions relief will be temporary (BBG)

• Gulf oil giants issue deep output cuts (BBG)

• Aramco CEO warns of catastrophic oil market consequences from Iran conflict (CNBC)

• Europe and Asia compete for LNG supplies amid Iran conflict (FT)

IRAN

• Iran is preparing to deploy mines to Strait of Hormuz (TI)

• Pentagon and Iranians both report the most intense day of airstrikes of the war (RT)

• Iranian official warns Tehran is not seeking a ceasefire, will retaliate against Israel (JP)

• Iranian regime showing signs of resilience against military strikes; bets it can inflict enough economic pain to test US resolve (RT)

STOCKS

• Meta acquires Moltbook, an AI agent social network (TC)

• Novo Nordisk receives FDA warning letter linked potential unreported Ozempic side effects (FBS)

• Salesforce plans to sell up to $25bn in debt to fund share buyback (BBG)

• TSMC's strong sales signal robust AI demand, with revenue in January and February up 30% despite geopolitical headwinds (BBG)

• Hewlett Packard guides revenue above expectations, underlining demand for networking equipment driven by AI boom, shares still dip 3% (RT)

• India accounts for about 25% of Apple iPhone production, continuing shift from China (BBG)

• FedEx overtakes UPS in market value amid shifting parcel delivery landscape (BBG)

• Airlines globally begin raising ticket prices as Middle East conflict drives up fuel costs (RT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Elevated energy costs risk delaying Fed's progress to 2% inflation, whether it can cut despite fragile labor market (NYT)

ECONOMY

• China Jan-Feb export growth much stronger-than-expected, underlining trade sector strength (BBG)

• UK consumer confidence plunges amid Iran war oil shock and inflation fears (BBG)

• Australian consumer sentiment stabilises but inflation expectations surge (RT)

ASX TODAY

• Lynas and Japan Australia Rare Earths to update commercial arrangement, updated long-term agreement till 2038, new NdPr floor price of US$110/kg for 5,000 tonnes per annum and 50% of all other heavy rare earths produced by Lynas (LYC)

• Rio Tinto secures $1.1bn finding package from four international lenders to support development of the Rincon lithium project (RIO)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Lynas: This is a massive deal for Lynas and the rare earths sector. To add some perspective about the US$110 floor price – average China domestic NdPr prices have increased to US$74 in December 2025, with Lynas reporting US$111 in late February. While prices have improved dramatically, they remain highly susceptible to Chinese supply and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Macquarie's modelling for Lynas (Feb-26) has NdPr averaging US$86.03 in FY26, and rising to US$117.50 by FY27. So today's price floor may have pulled forward expectations for the year. This deal continues to highlight the global shift away from Chinese rare earths, and a good look through for names like Iluka, Arafura and more.

• Volatility: Prices continue to be all over the place. One minute WTI is sharply lower and about to sink below US$75 a barrel, then suddenly its back above US$85. While plenty of the ETFs on our overnight watchlist finished higher, they all faded from session highs of 3-5%. Resilient software stocks also showed some softness overnight, with the iShares Tech-Software ETF down 2.3%, marking its first major down day since its ~14% rally from 23-Feb lows.

BROKER MOVES

• Sims upgraded to Neutral from Sell; target up to $20 from $16.30 (GS)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Wed 11 Mar: Bhagwan Marine (BWN) – $0.005, Brambles (BXB) – $0.327, Breville Group (BRG) – $0.19, Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY) – $0.034, CUE Energy Resources (CUE) – $0.003, Finbar Group (FRI) – $0.025, IMDEX (IMD) – $0.017, Ive Group (IGL) – $0.095, Kip McGrath Education Centres (KME) – $0.01, Naos Ex-50 Opportunities Company (NAC) – $0.016, Peet (PPC) – $0.065, Tasmea (TEA) – $0.06, Thorney Opportunities (TOP) – $0.011, Vulcan Steel (VSL) – $0.021

• Thu 12 Mar: ACL Australian Clinical Labs (ACL) – $0.037, AUB Group (AUB) – $0.27, EDV Endeavour Group (EDV) – $0.108, Embelton (EMB) – $0.15, Globe International (GLB) – $0.10, IFN Infragreen Group (IFN) – $0.005, Inghams Group (ING) – $0.04, Joyce Corporation (JYC) – $0.13, Kogan.com (KGN) – $0.08, Mcmillan Shakespeare (MMS) – $0.62, Motorcycle Holdings (MTO) – $0.095, Pepper Money (PPM) – $0.078, Perpetual Equity Investment Company (PIC) – $0.04, Perpetual (PPT) – $0.59, Regis Healthcare (REG) – $0.09, Regis Resources (RRL) – $0.15, SRG Global (SRG) – $0.03, Summerset Group Holdings (SNZ) – $0.095, Super Retail Group (SUL) – $0.32, Viva Energy Group (VEA) – $0.039

• Fri 13 Mar: Ariadne Australia (ARA) – $0.005, CAR Group (CAR) – $0.425, Fleetwood (FWD) – $0.095, Glennon Small Companies (GC1) – $0.01, Glennon Small Companies (GC1PA) – $0.34, Guzman Y GOMEZ (GYG) – $0.074, Wisetech Global (WTC) – $0.096

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: Reef Casino Trust (RCT)

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 11:30 pm: USA Core CPI