Evening Wrap: ASX 200 slides as CSL’s $10 billion wipeout proves “cheap” stocks can get cheaper

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 42.6 points lower, down 0.49%.

The ASX 200 fell as President Trump rejected Iran's latest peace proposal, sending oil surging and reigniting Strait of Hormuz fears. CSL delivered its fourth major guidance downgrade in two years, wiping nearly $10 billion from its market cap. Energy and materials sectors found buyers as the big banks traded lower.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap. Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 42.6 points lower at 8,701.8, 0.67% from its session low and 0.49% from its high/low. The fall at headline level overstated the negativity of the day, as advancers beat decliners by 141 to 139 in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO).

Energy (XEJ) (+1.1%) rose as ICE Brent crude futures surged 3.8% to US$105.16/bbl after President Trump rejected Iran's latest peace response, reigniting fears over Strait of Hormuz disruption. Woodside Energy (WDS) (+1.5%) led the oil and gas names higher, while other producers were broadly flat. Uranium stocks staged a sharp rally — Boss Energy (BOE) (+6.5%), Paladin Energy (PDN) (+5.8%), and Deep Yellow (DYL) (+4.6%) were all strongly higher.

Materials (XMJ) (+0.4%) continued to benefit from tight global supply expectations, particularly in copper. COMEX copper futures added 0.4% to US$6.322/lb in the Asian session, capping a week in which LME copper gained 4.2%.

Dyno Nobel (DNL) (+6.6%) was the sector's standout mover on a strong first-half earnings beat. Copper names also gained — Capstone Copper (CSC) (+5.3%) and Sandfire Resources (SFR) (+2.9%) were both stronger. Base metals diversifieds Sims (SGM) (+2.1%) and South32 (S32) (+1.4%) also advanced.

Iron ore stocks added modestly as the commodity price continued to ebb near multi-year highs — Champion Iron (CIA) (+2.4%), BHP (BHP) (+0.7%), Fortescue (FMG) (+0.7%), and Rio Tinto (RIO) (+0.6%) were all firmer, likely carrying forward Friday's positive momentum.

Real Estate (XPJ) (+0.3%) edged higher with few obvious fundamental drivers — the move appeared to reflect a partial rebound from Friday's sharp selldown. Goodman Group (GMG) (+2.0%), Vicinity Centres (VCX) (+2.1%), and Lifestyle Communities (LIC) (+2.1%) were the standout movers.

Health Care (XHJ) (-6.5%) suffered its worst session in months, overwhelmed by CSL's devastating guidance reset — its fourth major downgrade in two years. The biotech flagged FY26 revenue of US$15.2 billion and net profit of US$3.1 billion, both below the prior year, alongside US$5 billion in additional non-cash impairments across FY26 and FY27.

90 times ChartWatch ASX Scans ran CSL as a downtrend, 65 of those as Feature = highest conviction 💪

CSL (CSL) (-16.0%) fell to a nine-year low, erasing nearly $10 billion in market capitalisation. Notably, the bulk of the sector's other major names caught a bid as large fund managers appeared to reweight into alternatives to maintain healthcare exposure — 4DMedical (4DX) (+7.2%), Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU) (+4.6%), and Cochlear (COH) (+1.2%) were all firmer.

The Gold Sub-Index (XGD) (-1.3%) followed the well-worn post-escalation playbook: higher oil stokes inflation fears, which drives up rate expectations, which raises the opportunity cost of holding zero-yielding gold — and diesel cost pressures on producers add a further direct headwind. COMEX gold futures fell 1.1% to US$4,679.60/oz. Emerald Resources (EMR) (-5.2%), Regis Resources (RRL) (-3.4%), Ramelius Resources (RMS) (-2.0%), and Northern Star Resources (NST) (-1.9%) were all lower.

Financials (XFJ) (-0.7%) were dragged lower by the major banks — for the second session running, an ex-dividend move by one of the big four set the sector's tone. ANZ (ANZ) (-2.4%) traded ex-dividend 83 cents 75% franked, and the other majors followed it down — Commonwealth Bank (CBA) (-1.1%), Westpac (WBC) (-0.9%), and National Australia Bank (NAB) (-0.4%). Tyro Payments (TYR) (-4.1%) was also weaker.

In other commodities moves, GFEX lithium carbonate futures surged 3.5% to CNY 205,000/t in the Asian session — on track for their first close above that level since August 2023 — as the spike in oil prices drove investors toward EV and battery storage demand expectations. Australian spodumene concentrate rose 2.5% to US$2,900/t.

Lithium stocks responded, though the gains were modest relative to the commodity move — Core Lithium (CXO) (+3.0%), Develop Global (DVP) (+2.7%), Elevra Lithium (ELV) (+1.7%), and IGO (IGO) (+1.1%) were the standouts. Critical minerals stocks also advanced — Iluka Resources (ILU) (+2.3%), Iperionx (IPX) (+2.1%), and Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) (+1.2%) were all firmer.

Today's best gainers in the ASX 300

Today's worst losers in the ASX 300

ChartWatch

Nasdaq Composite Index

Analysis

That, ladies and gentlemen, is what we in the technical analysis world call a "Stairway to Heaven" pattern!

Classic Comp stuff. Classic USA! USA! USA! 🗽

Nobody does a bull market like the Yanks.

Fortunately, as a trend follower, I have had no other option but to go with it. Because I could imagine there are a few fundamental analysts whose brains have exploded over the last few weeks 🤯!

And then, there’s those who went one step further and chose to short the chart you see above.

May the maker have mercy on their souls… ⚰️

There was a time, however, when a more ignorant Carl (i.e., compared to this present less-ignorant Carl! 😉) would have said any of the following slogans in a strong bull market and believed it:

• “It’s gone up too much”

• “I’ll buy when it pulls back”

• “It can't keep going up like that”

• “It’s too expensive / valuations are crazy”

• “It’s all hot / speculative money, there’s no basis to it…the smart money isn't buying up here... well I'm not, anyway!”

• “But what about (listing them off) Risk 1, Risk 2, Risk 3…?”

• “I can’t buy here… Because as soon as I do — the market is guaranteed to crash!!!” 💥

The last one kept me out of countless fantastic trends 🤦.

Now, in situations like these, there’s only one thing I can say:

That chart is a picture of excess demand. Trends, price action, candles, volume — all point to D way bigger than S. But that’s the past, anything can happen in the future. Tomorrow the balance between D and S can change, and I’ll do the Analysis, and Accept a different outcome if required. All I must do now is Act accordingly: Allocate my risk based on the MOTN outcome — which in this case, is up.

The rest is up to the market. 🧘

View

FRP (RP = Risk Position — it reflects my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in US stocks. So 1/2RP is 50%, 2/3RP is 67% and FRP is 100% 🪣). I don't know what's going to happen next, only that right now, the chart above remains a picture of excess demand.

Key levels

There are no key supply zones to contend with. The old all-time high supply zone of 23722-24020 will likely act as a short term zone of demand, however the short-term trend ribbon (presently 24001-24493) is now the key zone of demand. If the price closes back below this range, the supply-side is very likely back in control of the Comp's price.

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Analysis

Two very different sets of Analyses.

Two very different sets of Accept.

Two very different sets of Act.

View

I remain 1/2RP 🪣 on the OTP. (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in Australian stocks is 50%).

Key levels

9022 is the key point of supply. Beyond that, it's the 9201, the all time high. 8621 is now the critical point of demand. It's quite simple now: as long as the OTP stays above 8621, the rally that started at 8262 has some credibility. Below it = 🌵!

(Glossary of acronyms! Old Tin Pot (OTP): S&P/ASX 200 | MOTN: More Often Than Not | FOMO: Fear Of Missing Out | HOFU: Holding On For Upside | BTD: Buy The Dip | STR: Sell The Rally | RP: Risk Position)

Economy

Today

• China April Inflation Data

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): +1.2% p.a. actual vs +0.9% p.a. forecast and +1.0% p.a. in March

  • Producer Price Index (PPI): +2.8% p.a. actual vs +1.7% p.a. forecast and +0.5% p.a. in March

  • Reader: Inflation is on the way back up in the world's second biggest economy, but the world's biggest manufacturing base... that PPI number is of particular concern for rest of world inflation ⚠️

Later this week

Tuesday

• 09:30 AUS NAB Business Confidence

• 17:30 AUS Annual Budget

• 20:30 USA April CPI

  • Core: +0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.2% in March

  • Headline: +0.6% m/m forecast vs +0.9% m/m in March

Wednesday

• 09:30 AUS March Quarter Wage Price Index (+0.8% q/q forecast vs +0.8% q/q in December quarter)

• 20:30 USA April PPI

  • Core: +0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.1% in March

  • Headline: +0.5% m/m forecast vs +0.5% m/m in March

Thursday

• 20:30 USA April Core Retail Sales (+0.6% m/m forecast vs +1.9% m/m in March)

Friday

• 21:15 USA April Capacity Utilization Rate (75.8% forecast vs 75.7% in March)

• 21:15 USA April Industrial Production (+0.2% m/m forecast vs -0.5% m/m in March)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +8.0% Humm Group (HUM) - reached an agreement with requisitioning shareholders over board composition and the conduct of its May 13 extraordinary general meeting, with directors Andrew Abercrombie and Robert Hines resigning effective immediately.

• +7.4% Inghams Group (ING) - reaffirmed at its investor day its forecast of underlying EBITDA of between $180 million and $200 million, despite flagging rising fuel costs.

• +7.1% OOH!Media (OML) - received an unsolicited takeover proposal from I Squared Capital at $1.45 per share, valuing the company at approximately $770 million and topping a $1.40 per share bid from Pacific Equity Partners last month.

• +6.6% Dyno Nobel (DNL) - first-half EBIT came in 17% above market expectations, driven by a 19% beat in the explosives division, with full-year explosives earnings guidance of $460–500 million reaffirmed.

• +6.6% Metcash (MTS) - guided to full-year underlying profit after tax of $268–270 million, with stronger second-half trading across food, liquor and hardware divisions broadly meeting expectations.

Trading lower

• -16.0% CSL (CSL) - delivered its fourth major guidance reset in two years, now forecasting FY26 revenue of approximately US$15.2 billion and net profit of approximately US$3.1 billion — both below the prior year — and flagging US$5 billion in additional non-cash impairments across FY26 and FY27, citing weaker US sales, pricing pressure in China, and softer growth from Hemgenix and its iron business.

• -12.5% Dateline Resources (DTR) - released its Bankable Feasibility Study for the Colosseum Gold and Rare Earth Project in California, citing a pre-tax NPV of US$785 million; the stock appeared to sell off on the news despite the positive project metrics, in what may have been a classic "buy the rumour, sell the fact" response.

• -10.0% Adisyn (AI1) - announced a collaboration with one of Israel's largest plastics groups to develop radar-absorbing graphene-based drone components, with no financial terms disclosed; the stock sold off on the announcement in what appeared to be a similar "sell the fact" dynamic.

Broker Moves

ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $36.20 from $37.00

Eagers Automotive (APE)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $30.00 from $32.00

Aspen Group (APZ)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $6.50

Abacus Storage King (ASK)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.70

Boss Energy (BOE)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.80

Challenger (CGF)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.40

Charter Hall Group (CHC)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $26.89 from $24.19

Centuria Industrial REIT (CIP)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.60

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.84

Collins Foods (CKF)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $10.45

Charter Hall Long Wale REIT (CLW)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.28

Centuria Capital Group (CNI)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.15

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.78

Centuria Office REIT (COF)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.05

Coles Group (COL)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $23.90 from $24.00

Charter Hall Retail REIT (CQR)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.91

CSL (CSL)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $200.00

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $176.00

Cedar Woods Properties (CWP)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $9.65

Cyclopharm (CYC)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.00

Digico Infrastructure REIT (DGT)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.30

Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $17.50

Dyno Nobel (DNL)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $3.55

Dexus Convenience Retail REIT (DXC)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.25

Dexus Industria REIT (DXI)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.00

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.62

Fortescue (FMG)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $18.85

FleetPartners Group (FPR)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.41 from $3.36

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.40

GDI Property Group (GDI)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.85

Greatland Resources (GGP)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $15.00

Gemlife Communities Group (GLF)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $6.15

Goodman Group (GMG)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $36.45

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $40.00

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $32.03

Growthpoint Properties Australia (GOZ)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.02

Gentrack Group (GTK)

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.46 from $5.63

Guzman Y Gomez (GYG)

• Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $16.55

HealthCo Healthcare and Wellness REIT (HCW)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.95

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.67

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN)

• Retained at sell at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.30

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.12

HMC Capital (HMC)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.20

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.71

Insurance Australia Group (IAG)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.00

Iluka Resources (ILU)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $7.95

ioneer (INR)

• Retained at speculative buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.40

ImpediMed (IPD)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.01 from $0.03

Laramide Resources (LAM)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.60 from $1.55

Lifestyle Communities (LIC)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $5.50

LendLease Group (LLC)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.99

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $20.45

Mach7 Technologies (M7T)

• Downgraded to hold from buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.27 from $0.80

Macquarie Technology Group (MAQ)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $82.00

Meeka Metals (MEK)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.35 from $0.39

Mirvac Group (MGR)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.22

Medibank Private (MPL)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.80

Macquarie Group (MQG)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $240.00 from $220.00

• Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $271.00 from $265.00

• Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $253.73 from $247.40

• Retained at overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $265.00 from $240.00

• Downgraded to accumulate from buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $255.00

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $250.00 from $235.00

Metcash (MTS)

• Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $2.80

Mayfield Group Holdings (MYG)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.40

NIB Holdings (NHF)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.10

News Corporation (NWS)

• Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $46.25 from $44.40

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $58.00 from $56.00

Origin Energy (ORG)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $13.00

PLS Group (PLS)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $5.60

QBE Insurance Group (QBE)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $26.00

REA Group (REA)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $217.00 from $211.00

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $200.85 from $199.00

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $190.00 from $200.00

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $230.00

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $219.00 from $220.00

Region Group (RGN)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.75

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.02

Scentre Group (SCG)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.23

Smartgroup Corporation (SIQ)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $12.70 from $11.10

SKS Technologies Group (SKS)

• Retained at accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $8.95 from $6.70

Super Retail Group (SUL)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $14.30 from $15.00

Summit Minerals (SUM)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $14.40

Suncorp Group (SUN)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $20.30 from $18.70

Turaco Gold (TCG)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.75 from $1.65

WEB Travel Group (WEB)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.75

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $5.25

Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $9.30

Scans