Evening Wrap: ASX 200 swings to gain as CBA dodges "death-knell candle", coal stocks fire up

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 12.1 points higher, up 0.14%.

It wasn’t a particularly strong session but what a comeback story from the banks. The Financials sector (XFJ) was down nearly 2% mid-session before staging a sharp reversal, thanks largely to a 1.3% intraday bounce in Commonwealth Bank (CBA). Without that swing, the index would have been a very different shade of red today.

Meanwhile, fund flows continued to show a familiar pattern. Resources (XJR) once again pulled in the heavy cash rotation — up 1.1% — and its commodities cousin Energy (XEJ) took out best performer after Brent Crude hit a 3½-month high, while coal stocks kept grinding higher.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

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Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 12.1 points higher at 8,820.6, 0.46% from its session low and just 0.20% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers beat decliners by a modest 152 to 116.

Fund flows:

Talk about swing factor: The Big 4 Aussie banks account for just over one-quarter of the total ASX 200 market cap. Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) is roughly 10.5% just by itself (Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC) & National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB) both ~5.3% and ANZ Group (ANZ) ~4.3%).

So, there’s a good chance that if the big banks are having a bad day, then the ASX 200 isn’t doing so crash-hot either. And that’s the main theme of today, with the sector index in which the Big 4 sit — Financials (XFJ), losing 0.73%.

No big deal I hear you say... well the XFJ was down nearly 2% at its worst point of the session. See that turnaround from 1:10pm on the ASX 200 chart above? It coincided perfectly with a (miraculous!?) +1.3% recovery in CBA from its corresponding lows. See: Swing factor! ⚖️

As it’s so often the case with the ASX 200, a.k.a The Old Tin Pot, if the big fundies are selling something that’s a bit on the nose, they’re usually redeploying that cash somewhere else they like the look of. Today, ahem, for the better part of the last 12-months as I’ve highlighted here each Evening Wrap for just as long — the sector they've liked the look of is Resources (XRJ) (+1.1%).

More generally, today also followed the typical script over that same time period where sectors that have a higher P/E ratio have struggled. I note that Information Technology (XIJ) (-0.1%), Communication Services (XTJ) (-0.2%), and Health Care (XHJ) (+0.1%) we’re well towards the bottom of the sector performance pile.

Other interesting themes in today’s fund flows — one of the sectors I described yesterday as “running its own race” due to substantial geopolitical factors is Energy (XEJ) (+2.3%). It flipped from worst sector yesterday (down 1.2%) to best, as benchmark Brent Crude Oil futures touched three-and-a-half month highs on ICE.

Coal stocks have been a quiet achiever in the XEJ, bucking the general downward trends of sector heavyweights like Woodside Energy (WDS) (+2.6%) and Santos (STO) (+2.8%), as metallurgical coal prices have steadily risen over the past 6-weeks to 13-month highs.

According to a research note released this morning from local investment bank Barrenjoey, met-coal prices are benefitting from “persistent supply tightness concerns as wet weather in Australia continued to cause production and logistical challenges.” (Barrenjoey, B* Resources Daily, 14 January 2026)

Makes sense. One thing I am sure of, is that two met-coal producers in particular have been making regular appearances in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends tables for roughly as long as the met-coal price has been pumping. Probably no coincidence!

Whitehaven Coal (WHC) chart (TOP) and ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends Scan List appearances since October (bottom). Note: “WL” = Watchlist vs “F” = Feature.

Stanmore Resources (SMR) chart (TOP) and ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends Scan List appearances since October (bottom). Note: “WL” = Watchlist vs “F” = Feature.

This one feels a little early (am I too early ChartWatch Webinar crew!? 🤔), but I note on 12-Jan, it appeared in a ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends table for the first time since August 2024.

Coronado Global Resources (CRN) chart

Stock Specific: CBA — Swinging in the wind! 💨

Talk about swing factor... CBA is not only an ASX 200 performance swing factor — looking at my chart, it appears to be increasingly swinging in the wind...

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) chart

This is a good point to remind everyone that my technical model has no clue what's going to happen next for any stock, commodity, or index. I leave prognostications and "high conviction calls" to those who are far smarter (and better paid!) than me!

All I know is this: when the colour of the short term trend ribbon is light pink, and the colour of the long term trend ribbon 'aint dark green — more specifically it's shrinking orange and it's stopped behaving as a cushion to the price and it's now seemingly pushing the price down — MOTN the price tends to go down.

More Often Than Not. That's the best I've got!

Putting that aside, today's late rally prevented what could have potentially been a death-knell candle for CBA under my technical model. I will close by saying: CBA must do quite a bit more to drag itself away from "MOTN the price tends to go down" camp.

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

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ChartWatch

Nasdaq Composite Index

Analysis

Yesterday, I noted:

"The demand-side looks in growing control here — but clearly — 23666-705 remains a stubborn zone of latent supply."

Kinda "ditto" vis-à-vis Tuesday's candle and volume — wouldn't you agree? 🤔

A tiny, black body, with roughly equal shadows top and bottom = indecision, sure, but given the miniscule size of the candle = no change with respect to the prevailing environment of demand-side control (refer short and long term uptrends, rising peaks and rising troughs in the price action, 3 prior demand-side candles).

Then there's the volume: the first above average showing since 19-Dec — which I'm pretty sure was an options expiry day — and before that 20-Nov... ditto expiry! 14-Nov is what I reckon you'd peg it against... and that feels like a long time ago and like something significant.

In the absence of a big risk event that simply could have driven greater investor activity yesterday, which while there's a bit going on at the moment — I don't think was the case last night — quite possibly Tuesday's elevated volume means:

1. The fig funds are returning to the market after the typical seasonal lull (straightforward, boring), and or

2. Cash is beginning to move into the market... global risk-assets are seeing coordinated moves... the demand-side is starting to feel a bit of FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) and they're putting some cash to work (tantalising!).

But volume is buying and selling, remember!? So, for all that demand that's creeping back in, there was sufficient supply to keep prices pegged to the bottom of that 23666-24020 range. That's a little concerning — better if that supply isn't there — but it's not surprising given the magnitude and influence of that range.

Tuesday's price action and candle just told us: FOMO might be on the rise, but we're nowhere near HOFU (Holding On For Upside) yet!!! ☹️

No change from yesterday's / preceding standing views... steady as she goes until we see something that changes our minds (read as: BIG BLACK CANDLE /UPWARD POINTING SHADOW + VOLUME! ⚠️🚨)

View

No change: I remain comfortable at my 2/3RP portfolio risk limit 🪣 (RP = Risk Position — it reflects my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in US stocks. So 1/2RP is 50%, 2/3RP is 67% and FRP is 100%).

Key levels

The trough at 23119 is the closest point of demand — a close below it would signal the demand-side is under pressure again — but I propose that it's not until a close below the next, lower point of demand at 22692 that we can assume they've lost control of the Comp's price. On a close below 21898 the short term trend is unequivocally down and the long term uptrend is likely under significant pressure = ⚠️. 23666-24020 is the nearest critical zone of supply — the Comp must close within this zone with a strong demand-side candle to confirm the demand-side is unequivocally back in control of the Comp's price.

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Analysis

A semi-decent performance today from the OTP!

I know we discussed above how the downward pointing shadow on today’s candle was basically all one stock (CBA), but in this section we don’t care why D > S = P⬆️ — just that it’s the case!

Blend yesterday’s and today’s candles together (yes, that’s a valid candlestick analysis technique), and you end up with something better than semi-decent: you get a credible demand-side showing.

Is it enough to push me back to 2/3RP? Nope. But it’s not far away. Let’s see one more strong demand-side showing: a long white body and or a long downward pointing shadow — with an emphatic close at or near the candle’s high. Ideally, we see the 8876 point of supply consumed in the process.

Otherwise, the technicals are growing more constructive here:

• ✅ Short term/long term trends: ⬆️/⬆️

• ✅ Price action: rising peaks and rising troughs 📈

• ✅ Candles: increasingly demand-side in nature

View

I remain comfortable at 1/2RP 🪣 (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in Australian stocks is 50%).

Key levels

8547-8562 is the new closest zone of demand. A close below this zone would confirm the supply side is back in control of the ASX 200's price. In theory though, the short term and long term trend ribbons now begin to act as a zone of dynamic demand (presently 8575-8717). 8876 is the next key point of supply. A close above it would confirm the demand-side is in control of the price — but it would take a miracle in the "dud" sectors to make this happen!

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Economy

Today

• CHN December Trade Balance

  • Result: CNY809 billion vs CNY805 billion forecast and CNY739 billion in November

Later this week

Thursday

• 06:00 USA President Trump Speaks

• 11:00 AUS MI Inflation Expectations (+4.7% p.a. previous)

Friday

• 00:30 January Empire State Manufacturing Index (+1.1 forecast vs -3.9 in December)

Saturday

• 01:15 USA December Industrial Production m/m (+0.2% m/m forecast vs +0.2% m/m previous)

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Latest News

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Interesting Movers

Trading higher

+21.4% Advance Metals (AVM) – Exceptional silver-gold grades extend Yoquivo at depth, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

+15.4% Titan Minerals (TTM) – Spectacular Results Confirm Quality of Dynasty Gold System, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

+14.3% American Tungsten & Antimony (AT4) – Massive Stibnite Intersected At Antimony Canyon.

+13.1% Boab Metals (BML) – Results of Oversubscribed Share Purchase Plan, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

+12.2% Stanmore Resources (SMR) – No news, general strength across the broader Coal sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

+10.7% Resolution Minerals (RML) – Further Ultra High Grade Antimony and Silver Results.

+8.8% Dateline Resources (DTR) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

Trading lower

-35.5% 3D Energi (TDO) – Charlemont-1 Gas Discovery Validates Charlemont Trend.

-23.9% Findi (FND) – Continued negative response to 13-JanMarket Update - Strategic InvestmentN, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

-10.0% Electro Optic Systems Holdings (EOS) – No news, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

-9.8% European Lithium (EUR) – No news since 13-Jan CRML Acquires Integrated Rare Earth Element Assay Lab, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

-9.1% Austral Resources Australia (AR1) – MOU for Toll Treatment of Ore at Rocklands.

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Broker Moves

29Metals (29M)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.45

Alcoa Corporation (AAI)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $71.50

Amplitude Energy (AEL)

• Retained at sell at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.53 from $2.39

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $3.25

AGL Energy (AGL)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $10.40 from $11.00

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $12.75 from $13.00

Ampol (ALD)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $37.00

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $35.00

AMP (AMP)

• Upgraded to neutral from underperform at Bank of America; Price Target: $1.90 from $1.60

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $1.90 from $1.95

APA Group (APA)

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $8.30 from $8.70

AUB Group (AUB)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $33.70

Bellevue Gold (BGL)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $1.65

BHP Group (BHP)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $48.00

BMC Minerals (BMC)

• Initiated at speculative buy at Morgans; Price Target: $4.90

Boss Energy (BOE)

• Retained at underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $1.25

Beach Energy (BPT)

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.12 from $1.15

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $1.05 from $1.10

Challenger (CGF)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $10.00 from $9.30

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $10.95 from $11.00

Chalice Mining (CHN)

• Retained at underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $1.15

Capricorn Metals (CMM)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $19.50

Comet Ridge (COI)

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $0.24

Computershare (CPU)

• Upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $39.60 from $40.40

Coronado Global Resources Inc (CRN)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.38

Capstone Copper Corp. (CSC)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $14.50

Centaurus Metals (CTM)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.55

Carnarvon Energy (CVN)

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.15

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $0.16

Core Lithium (CXO)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.30

Delta Lithium (DLI)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.17

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.41 from $0.35

Deterra Royalties (DRR)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $4.60

Deep Yellow (DYL)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $2.00

EBR Systems Inc (EBR)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.43

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $2.95 from $2.86

Endeavour Group (EDV)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.00 from $4.30

• Upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $4.10 from $3.92

• Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $4.20 from $4.10

• Downgraded to underweight from neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $3.20 from $3.60

• Retained at neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $3.70 from $3.90

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.40

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.30

• Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $3.70

• Downgraded to lighten from hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.00

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $3.75 from $3.90

Emerald Resources NL (EMR)

• Retained at underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $4.90

Evolution Mining (EVN)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $11.50

Fletcher Building (FBU)

• Downgraded to hold from outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $3.30 from $3.15

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.73

FireFly Metals (FFM)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $1.70

Fortescue (FMG)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $23.00

Greatland Resources (GGP)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $13.25

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $11.40

Global Lithium Resources (GL1)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.60

Genesis Minerals (GMD)

• Retained at underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $5.85

GQG Partners Inc. (GQG)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.20 from $2.35

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $2.10

Green Technology Metals (GT1)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.06 from $0.04

HMC Capital (HMC)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $6.60 from $7.14

HUB24 (HUB)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $100.00

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $106.00 from $110.00

Insurance Australia Group (IAG)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $9.10

IGO (IGO)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $8.25

ioneer (INR)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.46 from $0.36

Judo Capital Holdings (JDO)

• Initiated at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $2.20

Jumbo Interactive (JIN)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $14.60 from $15.00

Karoon Energy (KAR)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.40

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $2.05 from $2.10

L1 Group (L1G)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $1.12

Lovisa Holdings (LOV)

• Upgraded to buy from hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $36.00 from $37.60

Liontown (LTR)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $1.60

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.48 from $1.52

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $17.50

Meteoric Resources NL (MEI)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.30

Magellan Financial Group (MFG)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $10.00 from $10.70

MAAS Group Holdings (MGH)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.55 from $5.10

Minerals 260 (MI6)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.55

Mineral Resources (MIN)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $57.00

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $68.00 from $59.00

Medibank Private (MPL)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.90

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $5.15

Newmont Corporation (NEM)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $160.00

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $177.00 from $160.00

Navigator Global Investments (NGI)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $3.85

New Hope Corporation (NHC)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $4.30

NIB Holdings (NHF)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.10

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $7.60

Nickel Industries (NIC)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $1.90

Northern Star Resources (NST)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $28.00

Netwealth Group (NWL)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $33.05

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $28.50 from $33.50

Ora Banda Mining (OBM)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $1.50

Orora (ORA)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.35

Origin Energy (ORG)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $11.00 from $11.80

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $10.80 from $11.00

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $13.50

Predictive Discovery (PDI)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.74

Paladin Energy (PDN)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $9.25

PLS Group (PLS)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $4.05

• Upgraded to hold from sell at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.55 from $2.65

PMET Resources Inc (PMT)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.97 from $0.65

Pinnacle Investment Management Group (PNI)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $18.40 from $20.50

Perseus Mining (PRU)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $5.00

PEXA Group (PXA)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $17.00 from $17.45

QBE Insurance Group (QBE)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $23.25

Rio Tinto (RIO)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $150.00

Ramelius Resources (RMS)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $4.60

Regis Resources (RRL)

• Retained at underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $5.15

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.60

Resolute Mining (RSG)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $1.20

South32 (S32)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $4.25

Steadfast Group (SDF)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $6.80

Sandfire Resources (SFR)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $17.50

Stanmore Resources (SMR)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $3.00

Sun Silver (SS1)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $4.15

Santos (STO)

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $7.80 from $8.00

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $6.75 from $7.00

Strike Energy (STX)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.18

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $0.11

Telstra Group (TLS)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $4.90 from $4.80

TPG Telecom (TPG)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $3.80 from $5.40

Titan Minerals (TTM)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.95

Vault Minerals (VAU)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $6.20

Viva Energy Group (VEA)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.20 from $3.30

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $1.90

Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $6.10 from $5.05

West African Resources (WAF)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $3.70

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.20

Wildcat Resources (WC8)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.40

• Initiated at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.70

Woodside Energy Group (WDS)

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $24.25 from $25.00

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $31.50 from $33.50

Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $8.10

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