ASX 200 Live Today - Wednesday, 14th January

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Wednesday, January 14. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 fades early gains, energy stocks rally

[2:15 pm] Classic ASX 200 fading early gains, currently down 0.13% vs. intraday high of 0.34%. Only Industrials (-0.11%), Real Estate (-0.21%) and Financials (-1.29%) trading lower at the moment, so the weakness mostly reflects the performance of heavyweight names like CBA (-2.0%), Westpac (-1.7%), NAB (-1.9%) and ANZ (-1.1%).

CBA on the cusp of undercutting recent lows, which would bring it to the lowest level since April 2025.

Commonwealth daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

Breadth was a bit more dicey today, with a relatively even split of stocks trading higher and lower. The detractors are mostly real estate, gold, insurers and banks, industrials and tech stocks. Overall, a bit of weakness after reaching a fresh three month high and trading higher in four of the last five sessions.

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Energy stocks at one-month highs

[1:33 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index is up 2.3% today, trading at the highest level since 15 December and on track to close above its 200-day moving average for the first time since 12 December.

Some life coming back to energy stocks after a sharp pullback in early-mid December, and surprisingly very little impact from US-Venezuela developments.

S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index daily chart (Source: TradingView)

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Aussie job vacancies and building approvals

[1:25 pm] Two minor Aussie data points dropped earlier today.

• Job vacancies dropped 0.2% in the first three months to November

• Over the twelve months to November 2025, there were 17,800 fewer job vacancies, a fall of 5.2%.

• "Private sector job vacancies also drove the annual decrease, falling by 6.8 per cent in the year to November. Over the same time, public sector vacancies went up by 8.9 per cent," said Robert Long, Head of ABS Labour Statistics

• Australian total dwellings approved rose 15.2% month-on-month to 18,406 in November

Source: ABS

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Coal stocks surge

[12:16 pm] Coal stocks are trading broadly higher as coking coal futures continue to climb, up 0.85% today to US$228 a tonne.

"To date in 2026, the PLV HCC price has continued to trade higher, averaging US$220/t to date vs spot of US$226.4/t amid supply tightness and increased buying interest from India and Europe," Barrenjoey analysts said in a note this morning.

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Analysts' take on Endeavour Group

[11:05 am] In addition to Citi's update (further below), here's what other analysts are thinking about Endeavour Group.

• Macquarie retained Underperform, lowered target price to $3.40. " We see risk to margins as new management re-establishes market leadership and considers store offering (incl. private label). Further, Hotels investment capability is constrained with leverage at 3.6x (at Jun-25)."

• UBS retained Neutral, lowered target from $3.90 to $3.75. Retail margins remain uncertain following an unsustainable gross profit period, while hotels are benefiting from on-premise tailwinds, though execution risk remains elevated across both divisions.

• JPMorgan retained Neutral, lowered target from $3.90 to $3.70. Promotional activity is seen as reactive and margin dilutive, retail EBIT margins are expected to be structurally lower, and while hotels outperformed retail, further strategic resets may be required before growth returns.

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Top ASX 200 gainers and losers

[10:15 am] Lovisa opened sharply higher, not sure why (besides Cannacord upgrade to Buy, but target price lowered to $36 from $37.60). Elsewhere, mostly gold, oil, coal and rare earth stocks ticking higher.

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ASX 200 higher, resource stocks extend gains

[10:07 am] ASX 200 up 0.30% in early trade as Energy stocks continue to bounce (XEJ at highest since 16-Dec-25) and Materials opened at a second straight record high. The index is now trading at the highest since 11 November and up 1.7% in the last six trading sessions.

ASX 200 sector performance (Source: TradingView)

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Citi upgrades Endeavour to Buy after promotion-led downgrade

[9:48 am] Citi sees limited near-term downside for Endeavour, citing improved execution under the new CEO and potential for structural headwinds to ease.

• Citi upgrades rating to Buy and lifted its target price from $3.92 to $4.10

• Analysts note EDV is trading at 16.8x FY26 EPS and holds over $1 billion of property

• Potential performance improvements include greater supplier collaboration, innovation, exclusivity, sophisticated pricing, and category expansion in Dan Murphy’s and BWS

• Pinnacle business may be divested as Citi questions sustainability of returns and capital could be redeployed to higher-return pub refurbishments

• FY26–28 EPS downgraded by 6–7% due to lower retail gross margins (<24%) and promotion-led downgrade

On Tuesday, Endeavour reported preliminary first-half FY26 earnings, with numbers tracking below market expectations.

• Sales for the first 27 weeks (30-Jun-25 to 4-Jan-26) up 1% year-on-year to $6.68 billion vs. $6.63bn ests (0.8% beat)

• EBIT (ex-items) forecast to come in at $555-566m vs. $595m a year ago (5.8% decline at the midpoint) and $586m ests (4% miss)

The stock dipped as much as 6.6% ($3.56) but closed 2.8% lower ($3.70), suggesting some dip buying action as the stock continues to hover around record lows.

Company page: Endeavour Group (EDV)

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BlueScope to return $438 million to shareholders via special dividend

[9:36 am] BlueScope will return surplus cash to shareholders through a $1.00 per share unfranked special dividend, funded by asset sales and working capital releases.

• Special dividend of $438 million reflects cash from the sale of Tata BlueScope JV ($167m), West Dapto land ($76m), and residual BlueScope Properties projects (~$200m over FY25–26)

• Dividend is unfranked and declared as conduit foreign income, with no NZ imputation credits or DRP participation

• This represents a dividend yield of ~3.35% based on Tuesday's close of $29.84

• Free cash flow set to increase over next 12–18 months as major investment program completes, with capex expected to fall by at least $500m year-on-year between FY26 and FY27

It appears that no analyst models currently factor in a special dividend, which is a positive at face value. Capex commentary is largely in line with expectations, with Macquarie forecasting FY26 capex of $1.46bn, falling to $850m by FY27.

Bluescope shares are up 24% year-to-date, largely thanks to a non-binding offer from a consortium comprising SGH and Steel Dynamics. The $30.00 per share offer was quickly rejected as it materially undervalued the business.

The market expects SGH to return with an improved offer, mirroring the takeover saga between SGH and Boral a few years ago.

Company page: BlueScope (BSL)

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Monadelphous wins $300m Rio Tinto maintenance deal

[9:20 am] Monadelphous Group has secured a five-year maintenance services contract with Rio Tinto worth around $300 million, continuing its support of the company’s Pilbara iron ore operations. The work will cover fixed plant and shutdown services, providing generalist mechanical and access support.

Shares in Monadelphous are up 96% in the past twelve months, driven by strong operating conditions and contract wins.

"MND's earnings upgrade phase continues highlighting breadth of end market activity pick-up, healthy win rates and good execution. Focus is now on extent of margin uplift on higher revenue (ie Feb result) and further contract wins to maintain the positive momentum into FY27," Macquarie analysts said in a note last November.

Company page: Monadelphous Group (MND)

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Brent bounces to near three-month high

[9:15 am] Brent crude rose 1.8% overnight to US$65.45 a barrel, the highest since late October, driven by concerns over potential disruptions to Iran’s roughly 3.3 million barrels per day of oil production. The bounce comes after five straight monthly declines.

• Trump urged US citizens to evacuate Iran, encouraged protests and flagged possible intervention, while also threatening a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Tehran.

• Supply risks are being compounded by disruptions at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, with Kazakh export loadings cut by nearly half to about 900,000 barrels a day.

• Options markets are signalling rising upside risk, with the largest premiums for bullish contracts since last year’s Iran airstrikes and record volumes of Brent call options traded.

• Physical market indicators are also tightening, with Murban Dubai spot differentials rising to around US$2.50 a barrel, pointing to early Iran risk pricing.

Brent crude daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

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US food prices accelerate at fastest pace since 2022

[9:05 am] Grocery prices were rather overlooked in the December CPI print, highlighting a disconnect between easing headline inflation and the cost pressures still facing households.

• Grocery prices rose 0.7% month-on-month in December, the fastest pace in three years.

• Dining out prices increased by a similar amount, also the largest monthly gain since August 2022.

• Food at home inflation is running at around 2.4% year-on-year but masks sharp price rises in key staples including coffee +20%, beef +16% and candy +10% over the past 12 months.

• Offsetting pressures include egg prices, which are down more than 20% year-on-year and fell 8% in December alone.

• Headline CPI held steady at 2.7% year-on-year and core inflation at 2.6%, both near four-year lows, underscoring that food costs remain a key outlier.

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S&P 500 Q4 earnings growth to slow, upside risks remain

[9:01 am] Consensus expects solid but moderating S&P 500 earnings growth in Q4, with tech carrying results and revisions pointing to potential upside versus forecasts.

• Consensus expects Q4 S&P 500 earnings growth of 8.3%, up from 7.2% in late September but below Q3’s 13.5% growth.

• Bottom-up Q4 EPS estimates rose 0.5% during the quarter to US$70.50, marking a second consecutive quarter of upward revisions, defying the typical historical pattern of estimate downgrades.

• Technology is expected to dominate earnings growth at 25.9%, led by Nvidia, with Materials the only other sector outperforming at 9.0%.

• Most sectors are expected to deliver positive growth, including Financials 6.4%, Communications Services 6.1%, Utilities 4.7% and Healthcare 0.2%, highlighting broader participation than Q3.

• Consumer Discretionary is forecast to post the largest decline at -3.5%, driven by autos, while Energy -1.7% and Industrials -0.5% are also expected to contract.

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Analysts weigh risks from proposed US credit card rate cap

[8:57 am] Analysts remain largely skeptical on Trump's proposed one-year 10% cap on credit card interest rates, with the view that an executive order would be challenged in court or fail to pass through Congress.

• Morgan Stanley sees the proposed 10% credit card rate cap as a near-term headline risk but unlikely to become permanent without Congressional approval, arguing a one-year cap would be manageable for most banks while a permanent cap would severely impair earnings and book value for card-focused issuers, with knock-on effects including reduced credit access, weaker rewards and higher fees.

• Goldman Sachs argues a legislated cap is difficult under existing laws and more likely outcomes involve voluntary bank actions such as pausing rate hikes or targeted customer relief, noting that a 10% cap would render issuers unprofitable given funding, credit loss and expense assumptions, and materially constrain credit availability.

• JPMorgan believes a temporary cap would be survivable but a multi-year cap would be highly disruptive to the credit card business model, highlighting $940bn in balances and $650bn revolving, identifying card-heavy names as most exposed, and assigning a 75% probability to legal challenges delaying action versus a low likelihood of a permanent, Congress-approved cap.

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JPMorgan earnings mixed, outlook constructive

[8:53 am] JPMorgan shares dipped 4.2% despite reporting a relatively positive Q4 result.

• Q4 EPS beat expectations ($5.23 vs. $5.00 ests or 4.6% beat), supported by stronger-than-expected net interest income and net interest margin, though total revenue fell short of consensus.

• FY26 net interest income guidance came in ahead of consensus estimates, while expense guidance of US$105bn was reiterated in line with the December outlook.

• Investment banking fees missed, offsetting strength in equities and FICC trading, though management pointed to improving momentum in M&A and capital markets activity.

• Management sees ongoing consumer resilience, healthy business conditions and a stabilising labour market, with potential tailwinds from stimulus and eventual Fed rate cuts over the next 6 to 12 months.

• Credit quality remains better than feared, with net charge-offs running at exceptionally low levels, while NDFI exposure is described as well protected through significant credit enhancement.

• Geopolitics, sticky inflation and elevated asset prices were flagged as key macro overhangs, alongside regulatory uncertainty.

Management commentary:

• "While labor markets have softened, conditions do not appear to be worsening. Consumers continue to spend, and businesses generally remain healthy. We remain vigilant, and markets seem to underappreciate the potential hazards like complex geopolitical conditions, the risk of sticky inflation and elevated asset prices.”

• "We continue to monitor leading indicators for any signs of stress, and despite weak consumer sentiment, trends in our data are largely consistent with historical norms, and we are not currently seeing deterioration."

• "If you ask me in the short run, call it six months or nine months or even a year, you know, it’s pretty positive. Consumers have money. There are still jobs, even though it’s weakened a little bit."

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US inflation cools modestly, Fed cut odds remain low

[8:46 am] December US CPI came in slightly softer on core inflation, but the data did little to alter expectations that the Fed will stay focused on the labour market rather than rushing to cut rates.

• Core CPI rose 0.2% MoM vs. 0.3% ests, with annualised core inflation easing to 2.6% from 2.7% in the prior month.

• Headline CPI increased 0.3% MoM, in-line with forecasts, leaving annualised headline inflation unchanged at 2.7% vs. 2.6% consensus

• Inflation remains services driven, with shelter up 0.4% MoM as the primary contributor, core services up 0.3% and core goods flat.

• Price pressures were evident in airline fares +5.2%, food +0.7% and apparel +0.6%, potentially signalling early tariff impacts.

• Goods deflation continued in parts of the market, led by used cars and trucks -1.1%, appliances -4.3% and furniture and bedding -0.4%.

• Analysts flagged no major surprises given data noise from government shutdown disruptions, with markets pricing just a 5% chance of a January rate cut, largely unchanged on the release.

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Good morning!

[8:33 am] ASX 200 futures are down 10pts (-0.11%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

Morning Wrap will go live in a moment. The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks slightly lower, sector pivot from tech to cyclicals

• US December core CPI comes in slightly cooler-than-expected but treated largely as a non-event due to messy data

• Q4 earnings season kicks off with JPMorgan results

• Oil is on a four-day winning streak, now trading at a fresh three month high on Iran developments