Evening Wrap: ASX 200 dead cat bounce as markets call Trump’s Middle East de-escalation bluff

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 13.5 points higher, up 0.16%.

The ASX 200 edged higher but faded into the close as early optimism around a potential Middle East de-escalation quickly unravelled. Oil’s sharp rebound kept geopolitical risk front of mind, limiting gains despite a strong recovery in mining stocks.

In stock specific news:

• KMD Brands (KMD) (+3.2%) — rose after rejecting a proposal to demerge its Rip Curl business.

• Downer EDI (DOW) (+2.3%) — firmed after securing a $500 million facilities management contract with Stockland.

• Myer (MYR) (-1.0%) — slipped after missing expectations despite reporting a 32.8% lift in first-half profit.

• Orica (ORI) (-0.9%) — edged lower following an unplanned outage at its Kooragang Island ammonia plant.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 13.5 points higher at 8,379.4, 1.5% from its session high and a 0.16% squeak from its low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers beat decliners by a modest 165 to 118.

Materials (XMJ) (+2.6%) led gains as bargain hunters stepped into beaten-down miners, helped by strength in copper and lithium despite ongoing macro uncertainty. BHP Group (BHP) (+3.0%) and Rio Tinto (RIO) (+2.2%) rebounded strongly, while South32 (S32) (+2.6%) also advanced.

The Gold Sub-Index (XGD) (+3.5%) rallied even as bullion slipped, suggesting short covering and value buying rather than fundamentals drove the move. Genesis Minerals (GMD) (+6.9%) and Newmont Corp. (NEM) (+3.9%) led the recovery.

Financials (XFJ) (-1.8%) dragged as banks sold off into the close following JP Morgan's downgrade of National Australia Bank (NAB) (-4.5%) (see Broker Moves). Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) (-1.6%) and Westpac Banking Corp. (WBC) (-1.6%) also weakened.

Energy (XEJ) (-0.4%) was mixed as oil’s sharp reversal created choppy trading conditions. Ampol (ALD) (+1.2%) gained, while Santos (STO) (-2.6%) fell after a shutdown at its Barossa project.

In commodities, Brent crude rebounded in Asian trade, rising about 4% to US$104/bbl after plunging as much as 11% overnight on rising hopes for a temporary pause in Middle East hostilities.

Gold eased 1.3% in Asian trade to US$4380/oz, while copper strengthened modestly. Lithium also firmed, with prices rising in China trade, supporting names including PLS Group (PLS) (+7.2%).

Fund flows: Nice work if you can get it 💰💰💰✅

As investors and traders, we do the hard grind each day... reading the news and pouring over company reports (for my fundamental analysis cousins!) and scanning the trends, price action and candles... to try to find the optimal place(s) to allocate our risk.

Hard Work + Capital vs Risk = Return 🤞

So, when I hear stuff like this, it does get my goat a little. See the chart below from an X post this morning local time from US technical analysts The Kobeissi Letter.

The Kobeissi Letter from X, 23 March 2026

Basically, by sheer coincidence and nothing more, one of the biggest trades of the year was placed just a few minutes before President Trump's announcement he'd postponed military strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure due to "very good and productive conversations" with the enemy about ending the war.

I'm not saying anything untoward happened here... nooooooo... just it would be good to get this lucky with some of my trades every now and then! 😉

On the Trump announcement, and the market's subsequent massive about-face rebound — I believe we must forgive markets for doing what they're supposed to do: adjust asset prices based on the prevailing risk environment.

When you're heading in one direction based on what a particular person said, and that person (for fear it's having undesirable impacts on financial markets, and possibly by extension, his support base) all of a sudden says something completely different — well you must adjust.

1. It means shorts need to cover back.

2. Underweight funds (i.e., not trading the downside, just holding more cash than usual to facilitate buying the dip) need to de-risk underperforming a rising benchmark by adding some risk exposure (yes — de-risk by adding risk!).

3. Speculative traders will want to buy the dip for a quick flip.

4. And some long-side only passive funds will have to buy into the other three parties' buying — because that's all they're mandated to do, every day the market is open!

D ⬆️

Supply will take a breather and see just how much prices go up — and if they look like staying up — before they decide their next move.

S ⬇️

D > S = P ⬆️

But, in true: "Fool me once, shame on me; fool me twice, shame on you" fashion — markets didn't facilitate prices "staying up".

Nope, prices closed near the lows of the session overseas overnight, and here also. 👎👎

That's the takeaway — not the headlines in the financial media that are competing for clicks to get views for their banner and strip ads — it's that markets are buying a particular individual's BS less and less.

"BS" stands for "Barefaced Spin", of course. Hey, what were you thinking? 😁

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

Nasdaq Composite Index

Analysis

For all the talk in the financial media of the “huge rebound in US stocks overnight” (after you know who did you know what!) — our analysis must conclude there remains substantial doubt among investors that higher stock prices are a MOTN proposition (More Often Than Not).

Monday’s Comp candle above says it.

Our own candle today below says it.

In fact, they’re both screaming it. 📢

Fortunately, you’re part of a small group of investors that care enough to take the time to learn how to read the candles!

Upward pointing candle shadows (i.e., the line part sticking up out of the box part) imply that there exists excess supply at the price levels probed by the shadow.

So, for the comp, any price above ~22,000, and for the ASX 200 (aka, the Old Tin Pot), above ~8400.

The longer the shadow, the greater the motivation of the latent supply lurking in the system at those higher prices.

Nothing has changed here.

To be fair — and this is not technical analysis just one fed up trader’s opinion on proceedings: Because nothing actually changed as a result of one social media post and accompanying rhetoric from a person that has a track record of decision making process “volatility”.

I think I put that rather tactfully! 😉

The market just doesn’t believe it. Yet.

They may. If so, we’ll see the candles turn white-bodied and or with downward pointing shadows — indicating a renewal of buy the dip activity as well as some FOMO and HOFU.

But in the meantime, all we can see are trends, price action, and candles consistent with supply-side control:

• ST trend ribbon ⬇️ + price is below the ST trend ribbon + short term trend ribbon is acting as a zone of dynamic supply ⚠️

• LT trend ribbon ➡️ price is below the ST trend ribbon + short term trend ribbon is acting as a zone of dynamic supply ⚠️

• Price action = falling peaks and falling troughs = supply reinforcement and demand removal = sell the rally + 🚫FOMO + 🚫HOFU + 🚫BTD ⚠️

• Candles are predominantly supply-side in nature (i.e., black-bodied and or upward pointing shadows = pervasive programmed sell orders dominant + sell the rally + 🚫FOMO + 🚫HOFU + 🚫BTD ⚠️

For me, ⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️ = 1/3RP. It’s that simple.

View

1/3RP (RP = Risk Position — it reflects my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in US stocks. So 1/2RP is 50%, 2/3RP is 67% and FRP is 100% 🪣).

Key levels

The next demand zone is 20906-21033. We will watch the price action and candles closely there for signs excess demand is indeed manifesting itself. The short term downtrend ribbon (presently 22427-22609) is the nearest critical zone of point supply, and 22570-22907-23170-23321 aren't far beyond that.

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Analysis

I'll keep the BS to a minimum here! 😉

Because your BS filter already knows what to make of today's OTP candle = total lack of confidence among the demand- and supply-sides that higher prices are warranted based on the very real and substantial risks markets still face.

That's quite a candle! 👎

And it means nothing has changed here with regards to my ASX portfolio risk setting = maximum cash vs minimum risk.

Now, I'd be more than happy to add risk when the trends, price action and candles warrant it: please understand that I am neither bull nor bear.

I haven't been one for about 15 years (since after the GFC when the learnings from that event really pulled the threads of my trading model into line!).

I am direction agnostic. I couldn't possibly care any less. Just as long as the market goes in one direction — I can happily trade both.

I don't hope for either direction. I just focus on managing my risk based on the evidence I can see. The rest is up to the market, and if I've implemented my model correctly, then MOTN the risk and reward take care of themselves!

View

No change to my prevailing OTP risk bucket setting: 1/3RP 🪣 (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in Australian stocks is 33%).

Key levels

8284 is the closest zone of demand (static). The ASX 200 must at least close back above the short- and long term uptrend ribbons (presently 8679-8746. and 8663-8752 respectively) to reclaim any semblance of demand-side control.

Economy

Today

• AUS S&P March Global Flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

  • Manufacturing: 50.1 vs 51.0 in February = worse than expected, but sliver of growth

  • Manufacturing: 46.6 vs 52.8 in February = substantially worst than expected, substantial contraction ⚠️

  • S&P Global commentary:

    • "The reduction in activity was the first for a yearand-a-half as demand faltered. The decline in output was the strongest recorded since the end of 2023, owing largely to a solid drop in services activity which fell for the first time in over two years."

    • "Businesses faced steep cost pressures, with the rate of inflation at a more than three-year high. At least some of this increased cost burden was passed through to customers, however, with selling prices rising at the sharpest rate since August 2023."

    • "Qualitative evidence linked lower output to a deterioration in demand conditions, in part a reflection of global uncertainty and economic disruption due to the Middle East war."

Later this week

Wednesday

• 00:45 USA March Flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

  • Manufacturing: Forecast n/a vs 51.6 in February

  • Manufacturing: Forecast n/a vs 51.7 in February

• 11:30 AUS February Consumer Price Index (CPI)

  • Headline: +3.8% p.a. forecast vs +3.8% p.a. in January

  • Trimmed Mean: Forecast n/a +0.3% m/m in January

Thursday

• No major economic news scheduled for this day

Friday

• No major economic news scheduled for this day

Saturday

• No major economic news scheduled for this day

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +18.8% Benz Mining (BNZ) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +17.1% Echoiq (EIQ) – Agreement with Mayo Clinic for EchoSolv HF, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +14.5% Forrestania Resources (FRS) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +10.0% Brightstar Resources (BTR) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +9.5% 29Metals (29M) – No news, general strength across the broader Resources sector today, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +9.2% Elevra Lithium (ELV) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +8.6% Metallium (MTM) – No news, general strength across the broader Resources sector today, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +8.0% Ausgold (AUC) – Change of Director's Interest Notice (J. Dorward, +$32k on-market purchase), general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +7.5% Audinate (AD8) – No news 🤔, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +7.4% EQ Resources (EQR) – No news, general strength across the broader Resources sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +7.1% Unico Silver (USL) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +6.9% Genesis Minerals (GMD) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +6.6% PLS Group (PLS) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +6.6% BetaShares Global Gold Miners ETF (MNRS) – No news (gold mining stocks ETF), bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +6.5% Liontown (LTR) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

Trading lower

• -7.3% BetaShares Crude Oil ETF (OOO) – No news (long crude oil ETF), general weakness across the broader Energy sector today.

• -6.8% Droneshield (DRO) – No news, general weakness across the broader Defence sector today.

• -6.7% Electro Optic Systems (EOS) – No news, general weakness across the broader Defence sector today.

• -4.9% Guzman Y Gomez (GYG) – No news, general weakness across the broader Consumer Discretionary sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.7% Lotus Resources (LOT) – No news, general weakness across the broader Energy sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.4% National Australia Bank (NAB) – No news, downgraded to neutral from overweight at JPMorgan and price target cut to $46.10 from $47.90.

• -3.9% Collins Foods (CKF) – No news, general weakness across the broader Consumer Discretionary sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -3.8% Yancoal Australia (YAL) – No news, general weakness across the broader Energy sector today.

• -3.7% Wisetech Global (WTC) – No news, general weakness across the broader Information Technology sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -3.4% Nuix (NXL) – No news, general weakness across the broader Information Technology sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

Broker Moves

4DMedical (4DX)

• Retained at sell at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.00 from $3.20

The a2 Milk Company (A2M)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $10.55

Aussie Broadband (ABB)

• Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.30

Australian Clinical Labs (ACL)

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.20 from $2.40

ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ)

• Upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $38.50

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $36.50

Austral Resources Australia (AR1)

• Initiated at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.17

ASX (ASX)

• Upgraded to outperform from hold at CLSA; Price Target: $55.40 from $57.60

Amplia Therapeutics (ATX)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.42

AUB Group (AUB)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $34.57

Boss Energy (BOE)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.95

Beach Energy (BPT)

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $1.15 from $1.05

Beetaloo Energy Australia (BTL)

• Initiated at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.45

Brightstar Resources (BTR)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $2.40 from $2.80

Centuria Industrial REIT (CIP)

• Downgraded to hold from accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $3.05 from $3.60

Collins Foods (CKF)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $10.45

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $12.57

CSL (CSL)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $235.00

Centaurus Metals (CTM)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.85

Duratec (DUR)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $2.40

Dexus Convenience Retail REIT (DXC)

• Downgraded to hold from accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $2.50 from $2.90

Dexus Industria REIT (DXI)

• Downgraded to hold from accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $2.25 from $2.80

EBOS Group (EBO)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $29.00 from $30.00

EBR Systems Inc (EBR)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $2.47 from $2.95

Echo IQ (EIQ)

• Retained at speculative buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.60 from $0.62

Garda Diversified Property Fund (GDF)

• Downgraded to hold from accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $1.00 from $1.35

Goodman Group (GMG)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $36.73 from $41.50

• Upgraded to buy from accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $32.45 from $36.05

Guzman Y Gomez (GYG)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $22.53

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN)

• Downgraded to hold from accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $1.25 from $1.40

Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.60

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $5.40 from $6.00

Insurance Australia Group (IAG)

• Downgraded to underweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.60 from $7.50

Integral Diagnostics (IDX)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.20 from $3.30

JB Hi-Fi (JBH)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $106.00

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $70.70 from $75.40

Liontown (LTR)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.42

Monash IVF Group (MVF)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.85 from $0.90

Myer Holdings (MYR)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $0.68

National Australia Bank (NAB)

• Downgraded to neutral from overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $46.10 from $47.90

Nickel Industries (NIC)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.45

Origin Energy (ORG)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $14.30 from $14.00

Paragon Care (PGC)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.33 from $0.35

Pro Medicus (PME)

• Upgraded to buy from hold at Moelis Australia; Price Target: $145.03 from $141.04

Premier Investments (PMV)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $15.90 from $16.90

Perseus Mining (PRU)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $6.80

QBE Insurance Group (QBE)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $25.65 from $24.60

Regis Healthcare (REG)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $8.40 from $8.50

Steadfast Group (SDF)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $5.87

SEEK (SEK)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $18.50

Sigma Healthcare (SIG)

• Upgraded to buy from accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.30 from $3.40

Superloop (SLC)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.50

Synlait Milk (SM1)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.42 from $0.72

Santos (STO)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $8.80 from $8.20

Super Retail Group (SUL)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $16.55

Suncorp Group (SUN)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $21.60 from $20.95

Trajan Group Holdings (TRJ)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.00 from $1.10

Vitrafy Life Sciences (VFY)

• Retained at speculative buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.40 from $2.50

Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $6.10

Woodside Energy Group (WDS)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $30.20 from $28.10

WEB Travel Group (WEB)

• Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $5.30 from $6.55

Wesfarmers (WES)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $92.00

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $79.30 from $86.00

Waypoint REIT (WPR)

• Downgraded to hold from accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $2.45 from $2.75

Wisetech Global (WTC)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $65.35

Xero (XRO)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $174.00

Scans