Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to bounce, S&P 500 rallies as Trump delays strikes, Oil prices tumble

ASX 200 futures are up 151 pts (+1.79%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks higher but faded early gains after Trump announced a five-day pause on strikes against Iranian infrastructure, citing "very good and productive conversations" with Iranian officials

• Iran's Foreign Ministry denied any dialogue, sending stocks lower intraday

• Gold experienced a massive reversal, closing the session (-1.8%) lower, off session lows of (-8.7%), which also marked the first touch of the 200-day moving average since Oct-23

• Brent tumbled 8% but still holding above US$100 a barrel, marked the largest one-day dip since the pandemic

Let's dive in.

Overnight Summary

Tue 24 Mar 26, 8:22am (AEST)

Name	Value	% Chg
Major Indices
S&P 500	6,581	+1.15%
Dow Jones	46,208	+1.38%
NASDAQ Comp	21,947	+1.38%
Russell 2000	2,494	+2.29%
Country Indices
Canada	31,884	+1.81%
China	3,813	-3.63%
Germany	22,654	+1.22%
Hong Kong	24,382	-3.54%
India	72,696	-2.46%
Japan	51,515	-3.48%
United Kingdom	9,894	-0.24%

Name	Value	% Chg
Commodities (USD)
Gold	4,405.94	-1.84%
Copper	5.45	+1.96%
WTI Oil	88.87	-9.50%
Currency
AUD/USD	0.7013	+0.03%
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin (USD)	70,912	+4.08%
Ethereum (AUD)	3,083	+5.21%
Miscellaneous
US 10 Yr T-bond	4.334	-1.30%
VIX	26.15	-2.35%

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 higher but well-off best levels

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks higher, closed off best levels – S&P 500 (+1.15%) gave back almost half of its intraday gain of 2.23%

• All sectors positive, but Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.64%) underperformed the cap weighted benchmark by 51 bps

• Today’s big story – Trump's Truth Social post announced a five-day pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, though gains were pared after Iran denied any talks were underway

• Brent down 8.2% to US$100.54, the largest one-day selloff since Mar-20 but still up 37% since 27-Feb

• Deutsche Bank's aggregate equity positioning fell to its lowest since Jun-25 (30th percentile), with Discretionary sector at a nine-month low, last seen around the Iran bombing in June 2025

• AAII bull-bear spread fell to -21.6% in the week ended 18 March, the lowest since last May, while the NAAIM Exposure Index dropped to 60.24 from 92.58 in late January, its lowest level since the tariff fears of April last year

• Elevated short positioning could underpin market rally if geopolitical tensions ease (BBG)

• Trading in S&P e-Mini futures saw $1.5bn bid (4-6x larger than anything else at the time) just minutes before Trump announcement on halting Iran strikes (CNBC)

• Investors shift to cash and energy shares, reducing bonds, tech and mining bets amid Middle East hostilities (RT)

• BofA says CTAs increasing short positions in equities while selling Treasuries, with risks leaning towards further downside (IC)

• Iran war pushes global bonds down by over $2.5tn in March, putting it on track for biggest monthly loss in more than three years (BBG)

• Gold erases YTD gains, dropping for ninth day as Middle East war raises inflation, rate hike expectations (BBG)

• Hedge funds sold EM Asia market stocks last week at highest rate since April 2025 (RT)

• Private capital firms increasing focus on heavy assets with low obsolescence as software trade dims (BBG)

ENERGY

• Oil prices haven't risen enough to generate significant demand destruction, says Energy Secretary Wright (WSJ)

• Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are attempting to press on with planned energy deals despite ongoing war (BBG)

• Chevron CEO Wirth says it will take time to rebuild inventories after Strait of Hormuz reopens as supply chains don't respond immediately (POL)

• Two million gallons of Iraqi crude pass through Hormuz on a tanker with its transponder switched off (BBG)

• IEA chief says consulting governments in Asia and Europe about releasing more oil reserves due to the Iran war (RT)

• Global LNG exports hit six-month low due to Middle East conflict and shipping constraints from Hormuz disruption (BBG)

• Diesel price surge already hitting truckers, expected to cascade through supply chain and drive consumer-goods prices higher (WSJ)

• Goldman Sachs raises 2026 oil price forecasts, citing largest ever supply shock due to Hormuz disruptions (BBG)

IRAN

• Trump says US negotiating with a senior Iranian official, thought to be parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf (AX)

• Iran denies claim that parliament speaker Ghalibaf has held negotiations with the US (TI)

• US targets April 9 to end Iran war, but Tehran denies talks as strikes intensify (YNG)

• Pentagon is mulling plan to deploy air troops for Iran war (NYT)

STOCKS

• OpenAI is now offering private equity firms a guaranteed minimum return of 17.5% (RT)

• Berkshire Hathaway to invest $1.8bn for a 2.49% stake in Japan's Tokio Marine, with a 10-year reinsurance and M&A partnership, marks first major international deal under new CEO Greg Abel (BBG)

• Apple to hold WWDC from 8-12 Jun, says it will unveil AI features (BBG)

• Automakers globally scale back electric vehicle ambitions as petrol engine demand persists (FT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Incoming Fed chair Warsh faces immediate inflation and geopolitical challenges (WSJ)

• Fed's Goolsbee says he's more worried about inflation now than unemployment (CNBC)

• Fed Governor Miran reaffirms call for four rate cuts this year, says policy shouldn't be made on short-term headlines (BBG)

• BOJ's hawkish narrative shift lays the ground for sustained rate hikes despite economic headwinds (RT)

• UK Gilt rout intensifies as traders now re-pricing expectations for four BoE rate hikes this year (BBG)

• Major US banks raise China's inflation forecasts and delay rate cut predictions amid rising oil prices from Iran conflict (BBG)

ECONOMY

• Goldman Sachs lifts US recession probability to 30%, up five percentage points (WSJ)

ASX TODAY

• Myer reports 1H26 revenue up 28.2% to $1.88bn, net profit up 21.7% to $51.7m, total sales in the first seven weeks of 2H26 up 1.7% (MYR)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Worst days, followed by best days: The market's best and worst days often take place right next to each other. For the S&P 500, if you missed the market's ten best days over the past two decades, your returns would roughly halve.

• Bearish positioning: The challenge here is that the Iran conflict is having a real impact on the economy and prices (e.g. Reece announced a 28-36% increase in plastic pipe and fittings as a result of low raw material and high energy costs), and that's placing upward pressure on bond yields and interest rate expectations. On the flip side, positioning and sentiment have hit relatively extreme bearish levels. CTAs are now short ~US$35bn in US equities, close to liberation day lows, other indicators like NAAIM, AAII bull-bear, CNN Fear and Greed, are also sitting at contrarian bullish levels.

• Commodities bounce: Most resource-related overnight ETFs like copper, rare earths, nickel, gold and uranium up 3-6%, though off session highs. Gold prices experienced a massive reversal, closing the session (-1.8%) lower vs. intraday lows of (-8.7%).

BROKER MOVES

• ANZ upgraded to Overweight from Neutral; target remains $38.50 (JPMorgan)

• Aussie Broadband upgraded to Outperform from Neutral; target remains $5.30 (Macquarie)

• IAG downgraded to Underweight from Equal-weight; target cut to $6.60 from $7.50 (Morgan Stanley)

• NAB downgraded to Underweight from Equal-weight; target lowered to $39.80 from $43.50 (Morgan Stanley)

• NAB downgraded to Neutral from Overweight; target cut to $46.10 from $47.90 (JPMorgan)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Tue 24 Mar: Civmec (CVL) – $0.025, Fat Prophets Global Contrarian Fund (FPC) – $0.02

• Wed 25 Mar: Flight Centre Travel Group (FLT) – $0.12, Naos Emerging Opportunities Company (NCC) – $0.021, Perenti (PRN) – $0.033, Service Stream (SSM) – $0.03, WCM Global Growth (WQG) – $0.022

• Thu 26 Mar: Ipd Group (IPG) – $0.068, Salter Brothers Emerging Companies (SB2) – $0.02, Tourism Holdings Rentals (THL) – $0.025, WCM Global Growth (WQG) – $0.022

• Fri 27 Mar: Vita Life Sciences (VLS) – $0.095

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: BlueScope Steel (BSL), Challenger (CGF), Deterra Royalties (DRR), IPH (IPH), Meridian Energy (MEZ), Nick Scali (NCK), Red Hill Minerals (RHI), Resimac Group (RMC), Tabcorp Holdings (TAH)

• Earnings: Myer (MYR)

• IPOs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 9:00 am: Australia S&P Manufacturing and Services PMI

• 8:00 pm: Eurozone S&P Manufacturing and Services PMI

• 8:30 pm: UK S&P Manufacturing and Services PMI

• 12:45 pm: US S&P Manufacturing and Services PMI