Evening Wrap: ASX 200 pops on soaring gold, mining stocks, as WDS and STO bear the brunt of oil price tumble

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 84.5 points higher, up 0.96%.

The ASX 200 surged as oil tumbled nearly 8% overnight on reports the US had presented Iran with a one-page framework that could lead to the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, unleashing a powerful rotation back into gold stocks, base metals, and the big miners. Energy stocks bore the brunt of the reversal, giving up much of what they had gained across the prior ten weeks of crisis.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap. Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 84.5 points higher at 8,878.1, 0.96% from its session low and just 0.11% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers beat decliners by 177 to 64.

The Gold Sub-Index (XGD) (+4.7%) delivered its best session in weeks as a sharp overnight pullback in oil gave gold bulls the opening they had been waiting for. The relationship is two-pronged: falling oil eases inflation expectations, which pulls benchmark bond yields lower, which shrinks the opportunity cost of holding gold — an asset with no yield. Falling oil also reduces diesel cost pressures for producers. COMEX gold futures added 2.8% overnight before a further 0.4% in Asian trade to reach US$4,715/oz. DPM Metals (DPM) (+10.6%), Vault Minerals (VAU) (+9.2%), and Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN) (+6.5%) were the standout movers. Evolution Mining (EVN) (+6.3%) and Northern Star Resources (NST) (+4.4%) also surged.

Materials (XMJ) (+3.7%) were driven by a broad recovery in industrial and base metals prices, with copper, nickel, tin, lead, and zinc all adding 1–3% on the London Metals Exchange overnight — and COMEX copper futures gaining a further 0.1% in Asian trade to US$6.19/lb. The major rode the wave: BHP (BHP) (+3.8%), Fortescue (FMG) (+3.7%), and Rio Tinto (RIO) (+3.2%) all posted strong gains. Among base metals specialists, Capstone Copper (CSC) (+6.8%), Sandfire Resources (SFR) (+5.7%), and Nickel Industries (NIC) (+4.8%) were the standouts.

Real Estate (XPJ) (+0.7%) was the best of the remaining sectors, benefiting from the same lower-yield dynamic that lifted gold — as oil fell and inflation expectations retreated, benchmark risk-free yields eased and property trust income streams became comparatively more attractive. Scentre Group (SCG) (+1.3%), Ingenia Communities (INA) (+1.3%), and GPT Group (GPT) (+1.3%) were all firmer.

Financials (XFJ) (+0.5%) participated only modestly in the risk-on move. Most of the major banks edged higher — Westpac (WBC) (+1.0%), ANZ (ANZ) (+0.8%), Commonwealth Bank (CBA) (+0.7%), and Macquarie Group (MQG) (+0.5%) — while National Australia Bank (NAB) (-1.3%) fell as the stock traded ex-dividend.

Energy (XEJ) (-2.9%) was the session's heaviest faller as ICE Brent crude futures shed 7.8% overnight — the largest single-session decline in weeks — before recovering 0.5% to US$101.73/bbl in Asian trade. Oil and gas producers bore the sharpest losses: Woodside Energy (WDS) (-4.2%), Karoon Energy (KAR) (-3.4%), and Santos (STO) (-3.3%) all fell.

Downstream names were also hit, with Viva Energy (VEA) (-5.1%) — whose director sold $615,000 worth of shares on the day — and Ampol (ALD) (-2.3%) both declining. Coal stocks were also lower, with New Hope Corp. (NHC) (-4.3%) and Yancoal Australia (YAL) (-3.9%) falling as globalCoal Newcastle futures dropped 3.2% to $136.30/t.

Utilities (XUJ) (-1.6%) tracked energy lower given the substantial overlap in energy production exposure across the sector's major constituents. AGL Energy (AGL) (-3.3%) and Origin Energy (ORG) (-2.6%) were both weaker.

Health Care (XHJ) (-1.1%) extended its relentless 12-month decline — the sector is now down approximately 38% on a rolling annual basis. A Morgan Stanley report added to sell-side pressure, warning the sector would not be immune from rising input costs via consumables and freight, and cutting price targets for seven major constituents including CSL (now $198 from $215 previously). 4DMedical (4DX) (-10.5%) was the sharpest faller. CSL (CSL) (-2.1%) and Pro Medicus (PME) (-2.2%) were also lower.

Lithium stocks were broadly higher despite GFEX lithium carbonate futures pulling back 1.6% to CNY 196,240/t — Australian spodumene concentrate added 0.9% to US$2,780/t, providing an offsetting positive lead. Develop Global (DVP) (+8.3%), Core Lithium (CXO) (+6.3%), IGO (IGO) (+4.5%), Mineral Resources (MIN) (+2.9%), and Pilbara Minerals (PLS) (+2.1%) all advanced.

Uranium stocks staged a sharp reversal from yesterday's heavy losses, tracking an 8% overnight surge in global sector leader Cameco (NYSE: CCJ). Boss Energy (BOE) (+8.6%), Paladin Energy (PDN) (+8.5%), NexGen Energy (NXG) (+6.3%), Bannerman Energy (BMN) (+6.5%), and Deep Yellow (DYL) (+5.2%) all advanced strongly.

In other commodities moves, COMEX silver futures surged 5.1% overnight before adding a further 1.4% in Asian trade to US$78.42/oz. Coking coal prices were around 1% higher, while thermal coal prices traded over 3% lower in line with the sagging oil price.

Today's best gainers in the ASX 300

Today's worst losers in the ASX 300

ChartWatch

Nasdaq Composite Index

Analysis

Super solid. No change to the analysis (trends ✅ + price action ✅ + candles ✅ + volume ✅). Therefore, no change to the risk management here.

In the meantime, you know the drill... the fingerprints of excess supply to watch out for are:

• Black-bodied candles and or upward pointing shadows = pervasive sell orders, STR ⚠️

• Lower peaks, lower troughs = STR + FOMO is now fear of holding on + HOFU is now sell first ask questions later! ⚠️

Yep, I just copied and pasted that from yesterday's analysis. What did you expect? 🤷

This is what GOOD trading is all about. It's about consistency. It's about discipline. It's about a complete, utter and all-consuming focus on:

1. S vs D = P (i.e., Analyse: what is the trend, who is in control of the price, and therefore what is the MOTN outcome? Okay, Accept that!)

2. Manage your risk (strong trend = +R or =R, weak trend = less R than that, no trend = 🚫!)

I believe in the above with every fibre of my being. I've seen it work, not just for me, but for countless others. I can also tell you what trading is NOT (you won't find it on TikTok, and no, more screens doesn't make you a pro! 🤦):

Source: Stockcake

View

FRP (RP = Risk Position — it reflects my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in US stocks. So 1/2RP is 50%, 2/3RP is 67% and FRP is 100% 🪣). I don't know what's going to happen next, only that right now, the chart above remains a picture of excess demand.

Key levels

There are no key supply zones to contend with. The old all-time high supply zone of 23722-24020 will likely act as a short term zone of demand, however the short-term trend ribbon (presently 23891-24362) is now the key zone of demand. If the price closes back below this range, the supply-side is very likely back in control of the Comp's price.

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Analysis

Is 2 days of "back to not terrible” enough to solidify sufficient confidence in the S&P/ASX200, aka The Old Tin Pot, to +R on my portfolio risk? 🤔

There’s: “I want to believe. I never really felt the 8262-9022 rally ended. This is the strong resumption I’ve been waiting for. Go on, anticipate the rest of the rally, surely we’ll a cruise through 8987-9022, after which 9201 will be a mere formality.”

Then there’s: “Old Tin Pot, remember?” 🤦

Both views have their merits. The first allows for a quick, perhaps a little impetuous addition of risk, to ensure that the index doesn’t get away from me here. I like cash when stocks are going sideways, but I like stocks when they’re moving.

The second simply reminds me:

“We ain’t no Nasdaq, silly!”

Putting aside gut feel and intuition for a second, what technicals would unequivocally signal the demand side is back in strong control of the OTP’s price? 🤷

1. Big demand side candles, always fantastic, particularly if the first push is backed by above average volume. So far, this is not the case. I prefer to see the combination of demand side commitment plus the clearing of deadwood non-believer supply that volume confirmation affords. ✅

2. A supply side test / demand side hold. So, a “dink” as you’ve heard me call it in the past. New rallies need to be “set” first (like concrete before you walk on it!). Sure, we can see the beginnings of demand reengaging, of supply backing away — probably as the narratives driving prices are changing. A dink just let’s us know how much ammunition the non-believer supply still has, and how committed the newly motivated demand side is. In practical terms, any trough, or even a single long downward pointing shadow into/above the trend ribbons, would suffice here…

3. Clearing out of latent supply. Like the 8987-9022 supply zone. There’s bound to be a few non-believers lurking up there — let’s see the demand side clear them out! A big white candle with a close at its session high anywhere above 8889 would suffice here…

So, should I go to 2/3RP or not? I think we can start drifting towards it... Gimme one more good candle to be sure!!! 🤞

View

I remain 1/2RP 🪣 on the OTP. I can use the full allocation for long side risk. (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in Australian stocks is 50%).

Key levels

9022 is the key point of supply. Beyond that, it's the 9201, the all time high. 8621 is now the critical point of demand. Quite simple now — as long as it stays above that, the rally that started at 8262 has some credibility, but below it = likely a retracement back to the 8262-8379 lows.

(Glossary of acronyms! Old Tin Pot (OTP): S&P/ASX 200 | MOTN: More Often Than Not | FOMO: Fear Of Missing Out | HOFU: Holding On For Upside | BTD: Buy The Dip | STR: Sell The Rally | RP: Risk Position)

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major economic data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Friday

• 00:00 USA April Non-Farm Payrolls

  • Employment change: +60,000 forecast vs +178,000 in April

  • Average Hourly Earnings: +0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.2% m/m in March)

  • Unemployment Rate: unchanged at 4.3% forecast

Saturday

• 00:00 USA April Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (49.3 forecast vs 49.8 in March)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +12.5% Atlantic Lithium (A11) - agreed to a $292 million takeover by Chinese company Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt

• +7.6% Orica (ORI) - first-half EBIT rose 5% to $512 million

• +5.5% FleetPartners Group (FPR) - statutory net profit after tax of $37.1 million for the six months to March, up 7% on the prior corresponding period

• +2.2% Bell Financial Group (BFG) - reported unaudited net profit of $16.3 million for the first four months of the year

• +1.9% ARN Media (A1N) - issued a trading update at its AGM noting the total audio advertising market is expected to be broadly flat in FY26, with low-to-mid single-digit declines in radio offset by digital growth; shareholders delivered an enormous strike against the remuneration report

• +1.6% Humm Group (HUM) - founder and former chairman Andrew Abercrombie disclosed he is taking the company to the High Court alongside the Takeovers Panel, ASIC, Credit Corp, and activist investor Jeremy Raper

Trading lower

• -23.5% Tabcorp (TAH) - AUSTRAC disclosed it is investigating the company over serious concerns relating to its ability to effectively identify, mitigate, and manage money laundering and terrorism financing risks

• -11.3% Imdex (IMD) - Jarden downgraded to Sell

• -8.3% Light & Wonder (LNW) - first-quarter EBITDA grew 5% but fell 3% short of expectations, with RBC Capital Markets describing the result as "slightly disappointing"

• -5.1% Viva Energy (VEA) - director Scott Wyatt sold $615,181 worth of shares as the oil price eased on growing US-Iran peace prospects

• -2.9% Super Retail Group (SUL) - released a weak trading update, with CEO Paul Bradshaw flagging consumers pulling back on travel spending

Broker Moves

Life360 Inc (360)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $35.50

Atlas Arteria (ALX)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $4.80

Amcor Plc (AMC)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $62.86

AMP (AMP)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.94

Amotiv (AOV)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $9.30

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $11.40

Eagers Automotive (APE)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $30.00 from $31.80

Aurizon Holdings (AZJ)

• Downgraded to neutral from overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $4.15 from $3.90

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.91

Bellevue Gold (BGL)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $2.00 from $2.05

Beacon Lighting Group (BLX)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.30 from $3.20

Beach Energy (BPT)

• Retained at underweight at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.78

BWP Trust (BWP)

• Downgraded to neutral from outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.90

Chrysos Corporation (C79)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $8.80 from $8.70

Centaurus Metals (CTM)

• Downgraded to hold from accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.60

Digico Infrastructure REIT (DGT)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.40 from $3.30

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $3.60 from $2.70

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $4.20

Duratec (DUR)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $3.10

Evolution Mining (EVN)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $13.20

Gentrack Group (GTK)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.35 from $7.70

HMC Capital (HMC)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.80

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $3.70

Infratil (IFT)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $12.87 from $12.34

IGO (IGO)

• Downgraded to accumulate from buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $9.00

Imdex (IMD)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $5.10 from $4.60

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $4.88 from $4.52

• Downgraded to sell from underweight at Jarden; Price Target: $3.60

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $5.00 from $4.70

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $5.15 from $4.70

JB Hi-Fi (JBH)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $87.00 from $90.00

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $70.70

• Retained at accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $82.90 from $83.50

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $85.00 from $88.00

Light & Wonder Inc. (LNW)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $160.00

Magellan Financial Group (MFG)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.65 from $8.80

Minerals 260 (MI6)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $1.10 from $1.20

McMillan Shakespeare (MMS)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $19.90 from $18.50

Metallium (MTM)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.60

Ora Banda Mining (OBM)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $1.40 from $1.50

Origin Energy (ORG)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $11.25

Orica (ORI)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $25.05

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $27.00

Pinnacle Investment Management Group (PNI)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $24.70 from $23.21

Polynovo (PNV)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $1.56 from $1.83

ResMed Inc. (RMD)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $48.00 from $50.00

Regis Resources (RRL)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $9.45

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $10.07

Scentre Group (SCG)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $4.40

Super Retail Group (SUL)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $15.00

• Downgraded to neutral from positive at E&P; Price Target: $13.80 from $17.50

• Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $14.90 from $15.20

• Retained at overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $15.30 from $17.00

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $12.50

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $15.50 from $17.30

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $12.50 from $13.50

The Lottery Corporation (TLC)

• Upgraded to accumulate from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $6.00 from $5.70

Vault Minerals (VAU)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $7.30

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $7.00 from $7.05

Scans