Markets at Midday: ASX 200 rallies, BHP back near all-time highs

The S&P/ASX 200 is trading 79 pts higher (+0.91%) at noon.

What a strong bounce back after what feels like almost three weeks of 'death by a thousand cuts'. The last two sessions (inclusive of today) has seen Financials and Materials trade sharply higher, up ~2.7% and ~5.5% respectively. As long as these two sectors are holding up, the index will do just fine!

Let’s dive in

Midday market summary

Today’s big story: Miners surge

The overnight session marked a classic oil down, commodities up.

Gold (+2.98%) marked a strong bounce after falling ~6.5% in the last 13 sessions, copper (+3.4%) is back near record highs of US$6.2/lb, iron ore futures up 1.7% to US$111 a tonne, while other metals like palladium, silver, platinum and tin all posted solid gains.

Meanwhile, Brent fell 7.5% to US$101 a barrel after a report that the US and Iran are closing in on an agreement to end the war. Much like previous peace talks, nothing has been formalised. Perhaps this is a classic sign of price moving before news. On Wednesday, BHP caught an aggressive bid after opening 0.79% higher and closing the session up 3.0%. Today, its up another ~3% and trading within 2% of all-time highs.

Must read announcements 

• Credit Corp Group (CCP): Reaffirms FY26 NPAT guidance and upgrades lending volumes

• Orica (ORI): 1H26 NPAT beats with strong dividend lift and bullish FY26 outlook

• Tabcorp Holdings (TAH): Under AUSTRAC investigation over AML/CTF concerns

• Zip (ZIP): Reaffirms FY26 cash EBTDA guidance with strong US momentum

Capital raisings

• BWP Trust (BWP): Successful completion of institutional entitlement offer

• Diablo Resources (DBO): Transformational acquisition of high-grade silver project

• InteliCare Holdings (ICR): Completes $2.05m placement to support scale-up

• Tali Resources (TR2): Placement to support West Arunta exploration

• Waratah Minerals (WTM): $48m placement to fund aggressive drilling program at Spur

• Xenitra (XEN): $1.25m raised to support next phase of growth

Thinking out loud: Commodity supercycle?

Regal Partners argues a multi-year commodity super cycle is in its early innings, driven by US munitions restocking, AI infrastructure build-out, and a decade of mining underinvestment.

• US precision guided munitions inventories estimated to be more than half depleted across four of seven key categories following the Iran conflict, with rebuild expected to take a minimum of six years

• US defence budget at $1.5trn with all G7 nations lifting defence spend in absolute terms and as a percentage of GDP, supporting a multi-year tailwind for the defence industrial supply chain

• China controls ~93% of refined rare earths, strengthening the case for ex-China rare earths plays including Lynas (LYC), Brazilian Rare Earths (BRE), Lindian (LIN), Iluka (IPX), Tivan (TVN) and WA1 Resources (WA1)

• Copper at $6.19/lb with consensus 5-year forecasts of $4.80/lb seen as needing material upward revision, given AI data centres, electrification and grid upgrades colliding with constrained supply

• Mining capex peaked in 2012 and the lack of supply response is expected to feed through to stickier inflation, reinforcing commodities and resource equities (held in AUD at 72.37 US cents) as the preferred inflation hedge

Broker Moves

Aurizon Holdings (AZJ)

• Downgraded to neutral from overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $4.15 from $3.90

Duratec (DUR)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $3.10

Flight Centre Travel Group (FLT)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $14.15 from $16.75

Infratil (IFT)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $12.87 from $12.34

Imdex (IMD)

• Downgraded to sell from underweight at Jarden; Price Target: $3.60

ResMed Inc. (RMD)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $48.00 from $50.00

Super Retail Group (SUL)

• Downgraded to neutral from positive at E&P; Price Target: $13.80 from $17.50

The Lottery Corporation (TLC)

• Upgraded to accumulate from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $6.00 from $5.70