Evening Wrap: ASX 200 claws back from triple-digit loss as energy, base metals stocks surge, tech wreck continues

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 55.3 points lower, down 0.65%.

The ASX 200 fell as escalating tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher, fuelling fears of a prolonged inflation shock and more aggressive interest rate hikes. Rising energy costs and bond yields weighed heavily on banks and growth stocks, even as strength in commodities helped limit the broader decline.

In stock specific news:

• Greatland Resources (GGP) (+11.1%) — surged after lifting its Telfer gold resource by 150% to 8 million ounces following strong drilling results.

• AMP (AMP) (+3.2%) — rallied after announcing a $150 million on-market share buyback, easing investor concerns post-result.

• Webjet (WEB) (+1.9%) — gained after its CEO announced plans to step down, potentially reopening takeover discussions.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 55.3 points lower at 8,461, 0.98% from its session low and a “could have been far worse” 0.65% from its high. Despite the solid comeback in the benchmark, in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers still lagged decliners by a convincing 93 to 187.

Energy (XEJ) (+2.3%) remained the place to be as oil prices surged on escalating conflict risk and fears of sustained supply disruption. The appetite here is insatiable — big, small, oil, gas, coal — it didn’t matter, investors were piling in. New Hope Corp. (NHC) (+8.0%) and Whitehaven Coal (WHC) (+6.6%) led gains, while Karoon Energy (KAR) (+5.9%) also rallied.

Gold Sub-Index (XGD) (+2.2%) bounced despite only modest gains in the underlying metal, highlighting just how volatile positioning has become. This is likely noise rather than a change in trend. Newmont Corp. (NEM) (+3.8%) and Greatland Resources (GGP) (+11.1%) were among the stronger names.

Resources (XJR) (+1.6%) surged on a very specific theme — aluminium. Prices jumped 5% over the weekend after Iranian attacks hit a major production hub in Abu Dhabi, driving a sharp re-rating across the space. South32 (S32) (+9.4%) and Alcoa Corp. (AAI) (+8.6%) led gains, while Rio Tinto (RIO) (+4.9%) also advanced.

Utilities (XUJ) (+1.4%) and Consumer Staples (XSJ) (+0.7%) also logged gains as defensive pockets of the market in an otherwise weak session. Even as costs rise and growth slows, demand here doesn’t change. AGL Energy (AGL) (+1.9%) and Woolworths Group (WOW) (+1.2%) were modestly higher.

Information Technology (XIJ) (-3.2%) fell sharply as rising bond yields continued to crush long-duration growth names. There’s simply no appetite for high growth, high PE at the moment. WiseTech Global (WTC) (-4.8%) and Catapult Sports (CAT) (-12.3%) led losses, while Life360 (360) (-6.0%) also declined.

Financials (XFJ) (-2.2%) weakened as higher interest rate expectations and slowing growth concerns weighed on the banks. Judo Capital (JDO) (-6.2%) and Zip Co (ZIP) (-6.0%) were among the hardest hit — but there were heavy losses in the Big 4 banks also (Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC) (-4.1%)).

Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (-1.7%) also slipped as higher borrowing costs and weaker growth expectations pressured spending-linked names. Flight Centre Travel Group (FLT) (-4.4%) and Domino’s Pizza Enterprises (DMP) (-4.3%) led declines.

In commodities, gold rose in Asian trade, gaining 1.1% to US$4,539/oz, while silver climbed 0.9% to US$70.42/oz as precious metals stabilised.

Copper edged higher 0.20% in Asian trade to US$5.51/lb, while iron ore was steady in Singapore trade at US$107.20/t.

Brent crude added another 2.4% in Asian trade to US$107.80/bbl as supply fears intensified.

Lithium prices jumped in China trade, with spodumene concentrate rising 4.5% to US$2,335/t, supporting Core Lithium (CXO) (+4.3%), Elevra Lithium (ELV) (+3.0%) and PLS Group (PLS) (+2.3%).

Fund flows: That'll do OTP, that'll do!

I’ve said it a few times about the ASX 200 (aka, the Old Tin Pot) lately: “It could have been far worse”.

No consolation, of course, if you’re watching the value of your portfolio decline regardless — but I put to you — that was one of the better -0.65% days the OTP has had!

One might assume that the strength of Aussie shares today is due to the inherent value that the big fund managers see in local shares.

Nope! That’s not how markets work! Not here in OTP-land, at least!

E-Mini Nasdaq 100 Index Continuous Contract. Source: MarketWatch available here.

No, it was just a case of US futures rallying steadily during Asian trade. We don’t have a spine of our own — so we simply followed that improvement.

If US futures had further deteriorated today… then I doubt we’d be patting the OTP on the back for “not being as lousy” as it might have been! But for now... that'll do OTP... that'll do! 🐷

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

Nasdaq Composite Index

Analysis

Unlike most financial markets blogs — which will no doubt waffle on about the Middle East, Trump, and the ever-growing list of uncertainties around inflation, economic growth…and blah blah blah... 😴

Sorry — I nearly bored myself to death there!

This financial markets blog has very little to say about the “mess” we supposedly find ourselves in right now. A mess that, arguably, none of us caused… but wah wah wah! 😭

Crying isn’t going to stop your capital dying!

We don’t cry. We Analyse + Accept + Act. We Follow the Trend + Manage Risk. 💪

So what’s there to say about markets right now? 🤔

Just look at the chart! 👆

Nothing has happened since this latest bout of volatility began, which the model could not — and did not — contend with.

That’s what a good model does. 📋✅

It doesn’t predict. It prepares. It protects.

And this is a pretty darn good model, if I say so myself! 😉

It’s kept my capital intact through more than a few market crises — and now that I’ve shared it with you, my hope is simple: that it does the same for yours.

Because, I hope you agree: if you’ve followed the model up to this point…

There really isn’t much to say.

And more importantly — there really isn’t much to do. 🧘

View

1/3RP (RP = Risk Position — it reflects my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in US stocks — so 1/2RP is 50%, 2/3RP is 67% and FRP is 100% 🪣). Also, don't forget my 1/3RP includes both long and short RP up to that limit!

Key levels

The short- and long term downtrends remain intact. Both trend ribbons appear to be acting as a zone of dynamic excess supply (downtrend ribbon combination (presently 21792-22461). We must see a long white-bodied candle closing at least above the short term trend ribbon to indicate the demand-side is any chance of being back in control of the Comp's price.

The next key point of demand is 20906-21033. We'll watch the price action and candles closely there for signs excess demand is indeed manifesting itself. The next, lower zone of demand is 20205-20560. Upon a close below the previous all time high of 20205 — the Comp Bear Market of 2026 will be well underway! 🐻

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Analysis

Better than it could have been... but does it really matter? 🤷

Does today's candle, even with its half decent downward pointing shadow — indicating warm buy the dip activity — change the overall technical picture. 🤔

In other words, do you feel that the demand-side has confident control of the OTP's price, and therefore that the MOTN (More Often Than Not) likely path in its price is up, and not down or sideways? 🧐

(Because if it's the latter... what's the point of having / adding RP? (Risk Position)

No, I didn't think so.

Thus... as with the Comp, blissfully nothing to do or see here! 🙈

View

No change to my prevailing OTP risk bucket setting: 1/3RP 🪣 (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in Australian stocks is 33%).

Key levels

8262-8284 is the closest zone of demand (static). The ASX 200 must at least close back above the short- and long term uptrend ribbons (presently 8624-8696. and 8658-8739 respectively) to reclaim any semblance of demand-side control.

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major economic data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Tuesday

• 01:30 USA Federal Reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell Speaks

• 11:30 AUS Reserve Bank March Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

• 11:30 AUS February Private Sector Credit (+0.6% m/m forecast vs +0.5% in January)

• 12:30 CHN March Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

  • Manufacturing: 50.2 forecast vs 49.0 in February

  • Non-manufacturing: 49.9 forecast vs 49.5 in February

• 20:00 EUR March Core CPI Flash Estimate (+2.4% p.a. forecast vs +2.4% p.a. in February)

Wednesday

• 00:45 USA February JOLTS Job Openings (+6.9 million forecast vs 6.95 million previous)

• 01:00 USA Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey (88.0 forecast vs 91.2 previous)

• 11:30 AUS February Building Approvals (+6.1% m/m forecast vs -7.2% in January)

• 23:30 USA February Core Retail Sales (+0.3% m/m forecast vs 0.0% in January)

Thursday

• 01:00 ISM March Manufacturing PMI (52.3 forecast vs 52.4 in February)

Friday

• AUS Non-trading day

• 23:30 USA March Non-farm Payroll Data

  • Employment change: +56,000 forecast vs -92,000 in February

  • Average hourly earnings: +0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.4% m/m in February

  • Unemployment rate: 4.4% forecast vs 4.4% in February

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +11.1% Greatland Resources (GGP) – December 2025 Group Mineral Resource Statement, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +10.0% Minerals 260 (MI6) – Strong Drilling Results, Maiden Reserve and MRE on Track, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +9.4% South32 (S32) – No news, general strength across the broader Base Metals sector today.

• +8.6% Alcoa (AAI) – No news, general strength across the broader Base Metals sector today.

• +8.2% Amplitude Energy (AEL) – No news, general strength across the broader Energy sector today, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +8.0% New Hope Corp. (NHC) – No news, upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie and price target raised to $7.00 from $4.80, general strength across the broader Energy sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.9% BetaShares Crude Oil ETF (OOO) – No news (long crude oil ETF), general strength across the broader Energy sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.6% Whitehaven Coal (WHC) – No news, upgraded to buy from sell at UBS and price target raised to $10.10 from $7.90, general strength across the broader Energy sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.9% Karoon Energy (KAR) – Board Renewal Update - Appointment and Resignation, general strength across the broader Energy sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.7% Global X Ultra Short Nasdaq-100 ETF (SNAS) – No news (short Nasdaq ETF).

• +5.3% Iperionx (IPX) – Change of Director's Interest Notice (3 x director on market purchases: +$2m +$720k +$145k).

• +5.2% Northern Star Resources (NST) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +4.9% Rio Tinto (RIO) – No news, general strength across the broader Base Metals sector today.

• +4.8% BetaShares US EQY Strong Bear ETF (BBUS) – No news (short US stocks ETF).

• +4.3% Core Lithium (CXO) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today.

• +4.1% Yancoal Australia (YAL) – No news, general strength across the broader Energy sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -12.3% (CAT) – Catapult FY26 Trading Update, general weakness across the broader Information Technology sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -10.2% 4DMEDICAL (4DX) – No news, general weakness across the broader HealthCare sector today.

• -8.5% BetaShares Geared US Eqty ETF (GGUS) – No news (geared long US stocks ETF).

• -6.5% Accent Group (AX1) – No news, general weakness across the broader Consumer Discretionary sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -6.5% Temple & Webster (TPW) – No news, general weakness across the broader Consumer Discretionary sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -6.2% Judo Capital (JDO) – No news, general weakness across the broader Financials sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -6.0% Weebit Nano (WBT) – Continued negative response to 27-Mar Successful completion of $80 million institutional placement, general weakness across the broader Information Technology sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -6.0% Zip (ZIP) – No news, general weakness across the broader Financials sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -6.0% Life360 (360) – No news, general weakness across the broader Information Technology sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -5.7% Block (XYZ) – No news, general weakness across the broader Information Technology sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -5.7% Silex Systems (SLX) – No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -5.0% Light & Wonder (LNW) – No news, general weakness across the broader Consumer Discretionary sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.8% Wisetech Global (WTC) – No news, general weakness across the broader Information Technology sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.7% Megaport (MP1) – No news, general weakness across the broader Information Technology sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.6% Myer (MYR) – No news, general weakness across the broader Consumer Discretionary sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.5% Healius (HLS) – No news, general weakness across the broader HealthCare sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.4% Flight Centre Travel (FLT) – No news, general weakness across the broader Consumer Discretionary sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.3% Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP) – Change in substantial holding (Citigroup Global Markets Australia 7.6% from 8.6%), general weakness across the broader Consumer Discretionary sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.2% Virgin Australia (VGN) – No news, general weakness across the broader Consumer Discretionary sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.1% Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN) – No news, general weakness across the broader Financials sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.1% Westpac Banking Corp (WBC) – No news, general weakness across the broader Financials sector today.

• -3.9% Bapcor (BAP) – Change in substantial holding (Tanarra Capital Australia 18.0% from 19.2%), general weakness across the broader Consumer Discretionary sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -3.9% Ebos (EBO) – No news, general weakness across the broader HealthCare sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

Broker Moves

Atlantic Lithium (A11)

• Upgraded to neutral from underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.32 from $0.24

Amplitude Energy (AEL)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.70 from $3.40

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $3.00 from $3.50

Advanced Innergy Holdings (AIH)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $1.45

Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $69.00

ALS (ALQ)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $25.30

APA Group (APA)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.58

Bubs Australia (BUB)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.18

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.15 from $0.18

Catapult Sports (CAT)

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $8.00

• Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $6.25 from $7.00

• Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $5.56 from $5.48

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $6.45 from $6.70

Champion Iron (CIA)

• Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.60 from $6.25

Coronado Global Resources Inc (CRN)

• Upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS; Price Target: $0.42 from $0.32

Civmec (CVL)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $2.00

Cyprium Metals (CYM)

• Initiated at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.65

DPM Metals Inc. (DPM)

• Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $59.00 from $58.00

Deterra Royalties (DRR)

• Upgraded to neutral from sell at UBS; Price Target: $3.95 from $4.20

Endeavour Group (EDV)

• Downgraded to neutral from buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.70

Evolution Mining (EVN)

• Upgraded to neutral from underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $12.70 from $11.20

• Upgraded to neutral from sell at UBS; Price Target: $12.50 from $12.80

Fenix Resources (FEX)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.63 from $0.67

Fortescue (FMG)

• Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $22.00

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation (FPH)

• Upgraded to outperform from hold at CLSA; Price Target: $35.00 from $35.50

Greatland Resources (GGP)

• Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $13.50 from $13.20

Genesis Minerals (GMD)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $10.75

Insurance Australia Group (IAG)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.00

Infratil (IFT)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $12.34

IGO (IGO)

• Upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS; Price Target: $8.55 from $8.50

Imdex (IMD)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $4.70

Kogan.com (KGN)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.80 from $3.30

Light & Wonder Inc. (LNW)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $215.00

Liontown (LTR)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $2.20

Mineral Resources (MIN)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $66.00

MLG Oz (MLG)

• Retained at speculative buy at Morgans; Price Target: $1.20

Monadelphous Group (MND)

• Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $33.85

New Hope Corporation (NHC)

• Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.00 from $4.80

PLS Group (PLS)

• Downgraded to neutral from buy at UBS; Price Target: $4.95

Qoria (QOR)

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.80

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.76

• Retained at buy at Unified Capital Partners; Price Target: $0.77 from $1.00

Ramelius Resources (RMS)

• Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.80

Sandfire Resources (SFR)

• Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $20.10

• Upgraded to neutral from sell at UBS; Price Target: $17.70 from $18.05

Sims (SGM)

• Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $25.00

• Retained at neutral at E&P; Price Target: $23.65

• Upgraded to overweight from neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $23.00 from $21.50

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $30.00

Silex Systems (SLX)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $10.48

SRG Global (SRG)

• Retained at accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $3.20

Suncorp Group (SUN)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $18.90

Tabcorp Holdings (TAH)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $1.20

Tasmea (TEA)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $5.25

The Lottery Corporation (TLC)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $6.35

Telstra Group (TLS)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.64

TPG Telecom (TPG)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.40 from $4.20

Ventia Services Group (VNT)

• Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $5.25

Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC)

• Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $35.66

• Retained at underweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $37.40

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $40.00

Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

• Upgraded to buy from sell at UBS; Price Target: $10.10 from $7.90

Xero (XRO)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $144.80

Scans