Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to fall, following Friday night selloff on Wall Street

ASX 200 futures are down 65 pts (-0.8%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• Aussie market to open weaker following soft Friday night in US

• Situation remains fluid, markets will also need to process weekend headlines

• Iranian-backed Houthi have entered the war in the Middle East, threatening to drive up oil prices

• Victorians and Tasmanians will receive free temporary public transport in a sign of the times

Let's dive in.

Overnight Summary

Mon 30 Mar 26, 8:38am (AEST)

Name	Value	% Chg
Major Indices
S&P 500	6,369	-1.67%
Dow Jones	45,167	-1.73%
NASDAQ Comp	20,948	-2.15%
Russell 2000	2,450	-1.75%
Country Indices
Canada	31,961	+0.23%
China	3,914	+0.63%
Germany	22,301	-1.38%
Hong Kong	24,952	+0.38%
India	73,583	-2.25%
Japan	53,373	-0.43%
United Kingdom	9,967	-0.05%

Name	Value	% Chg
Commodities (USD)
Gold	4,495.05	+2.63%
Copper	5.47	+0.33%
WTI Oil	99.64	+5.46%
Currency
AUD/USD	0.6865	-0.14%
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin (USD)	66,543	-0.49%
Ethereum (AUD)	2,915	-1.09%
Miscellaneous
US 10 Yr T-bond	4.44	+0.54%
VIX	31.05	+13.16%

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 opened weaker and kept falling, closing near the low

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks slumped on Friday night, on fears that the disruption to world oil supply would filter through to inflation worldwide and drag on growth

• Money markets are pricing a 50% chance the US Fed will raise rates this year, from pricing in rate cuts in February

• The S&P/ASX 200 Index has dropped 7.4% this month, on track for its worst decline since 2022

• Bond traders rapidly price in the prospect of more rate increases in Australia to tackle runaway inflation

• The Australian dollar hit a two-month low of US68.63¢

ENERGY

• Saudi East-West pipeline, which bypasses Strait of Hormuz, now pumping at full capacity of 7M bpd (Bloomberg)

• Seven vessels left Persian Gulf on Saturday, including two petroleum gas tankers and four bulk carriers (Bloomberg)

• Pakistan says Iran has agreed to let 20 vessels sailing under Pakistani flag transit Strait of Hormuz (NY Times)

• Emirates Global Aluminium says it sustained significant damage during Iranian missile and drone attacks (Bloomberg)

• Bahrain aluminium giant says its facility was subjected to Iranian attack (CNBC)

• Fertiliser, aluminium, helium and plastics all impacted by supply chain disruptions in the Persian Gulf (link)

• Chevron says damage to Wheatstone LNG plant in Australia from recent severe weather means it won't be fully back online for weeks (Bloomberg)

IRAN

• Entry of Iranian-backed Houthi rebels into the Middle East war threatens to drive up oil prices and interest rates globally.

• Iran has warned the US against a ground invasion, saying it will set American troops “on fire”.

• The comments come as thousands of service members have arrived in the Middle East.

• Pakistan has hosted talks with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt on ways to bring “an early and permanent” end to the war.

• Pentagon preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran, but focus will be on mix of raids, not full-scale invasion (Washington Post)

• Houthi rebels fire ballistic missiles at Israel, raise concerns their involvement could further pressure Israeli air defenses, commodity supply chains (FT)

TARIFFS

• EU trade minister highlights 'very positive' meeting with USTR, notes agreement further advance work on critical minerals (Reuters)

ASX TODAY

• Commonwealth Bank cut its growth forecast, lifted inflation projections and flagged two rate rises by Christmas.

WHAT TO WATCH THIS WEEK

• Investors will scrutinise the RBA February meeting minutes on Tuesday, looking for insight into the tight 5–4 vote to raise the cash rate to 4.1%

• Attention will centre on what drove the split decision and how policymakers are thinking about the path ahead

• In the US, markets will turn to fresh labour market data for signals on economic momentum

• Jerome Powell, head of the Fed is also set to speak on Tuesday morning (AEDT), which could shape rate expectations

BROKER MOVES

• Fisher & Paykel Healthcare upgraded to outperform from hold at CLSA. Target is $35.00

• Ramelius Resources assumed overweight at JPMorgan. Target is $6.20

• AMP upgraded to buy from neutral at BofA. Target is $1.55

• BWP Trust initiated outperform at Macquarie. Target is $3.90

• EVT Ltd. upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan. Target is $14.00

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Mon 30 Mar: Centuria Industrial REIT (CIP) – $0.042, Centuria Office REIT (COF) – $0.025, Charter Hall Long Wale REIT (CLW) – $0.064, Dexus Convenience Retail REIT (DXC) – $0.052, Dexus Industria REIT (DXI) – $0.042, DPM Metals (DPM) – $0.042, EVZ (EVZ) – $0.005, Garda Property Group (GDF) – $0.022, Rural Funds Group (RFF) – $0.029, Sequoia Financial Group (SEQ) – $0.01, Verbrec (VBC) – $0.001, Wiseway Group (WWG) – $0.006

• Tue 31 Mar: Genusplus Group (GNP) – $0.02, Maas Group Holdings (MGH) – $0.035, New Hope Corporation (NHC) – $0.10, Staude Capital Global Value Fund (GVF) – $0.033

• Wed 1 Apr: ARB Corporation (ARB) – $0.34, Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN) – $0.145, Lindsay Australia (LAU) – $0.021, Ridley Corporation (RIC) – $0.051

• Tue 7 Apr: Shine Justice (SHJ) – $0.015, Southern Cross Electrical Engineering (SXE) – $0.025

• Wed 8 Apr: Clime Capital (CAM) – $0.014, Rivco Australia (RIV) – $0.037

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: Coles Group (COL), Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), Fortescue (FMG), GTN (GTN), Iluka Resources (ILU)

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

No major economic announcements.