ASX 200 Live Today - Monday, 30th March

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Monday, March 30. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up a little earlier than usual, at ~12:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

The surprising truth about oil spikes and equity returns

[12:04 pm]

Rising oil prices may be unnerving investors, but history suggests the impact on equities is often overstated, with most years of rising oil prices also delivering positive share market returns, according to market expert Ashley Owen, Founder of Owen Analytics.

Since 1970, oil prices have risen in 57% of years, and in those periods shares still posted gains 72% of the time, making the most common historical outcome one where both oil and equities moved higher together.

Some of the strongest years for Australian equities - including 1979, 2003, 2004, 2007, 2009 and 2021 - all coincided with rising oil prices, challenging the popular belief that higher crude is inherently bearish for markets.

Owen argues oil has historically been more of a secondary inflation and rates variable than a direct market killer, with broader macro conditions usually playing the bigger role in major equity drawdowns.

He plotted the performance of shares in different oil markets below.

By Vishal Teckchandani

Alcoa, South32 and Rio Tinto jump after aluminium prices jump

[11:44 am]

The war in the Middle East is now wreaking havoc (in both good and bad ways) on non-energy commodities, with aluminium in London jumping 5% after Iranian strikes damaged Emirates Global Aluminium’s Al Taweelah production base in the UAE over the weekend, according to Reuters.

Gulf producers account for about 9% of global supply, making the disruption highly market-sensitive.

The move is flowing straight through to ASX-exposed names, with Rio Tinto up 1.97% to $156.25 and South32 surging 6.45% to $4.29, while US aluminium giant Alcoa's ASX listing is up 9.03% to $93.71.

The bigger issue is logistics: most Gulf aluminium producers have been unable to ship metal through their usual channels since the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, tightening global supply and driving sharp price moves across the complex.

By Vishal Teckchandani

Oil, gas and coal stocks enjoy their month in the sun

[11:10 am]

It’s certainly painful looking at the S&P/ASX 200 today, down 1.48%, but the energy sector is continuing its stellar run, pushing back toward its 2023 highs after rising about 20% in March and 37% over the past year.

The rally has been supported by both capital growth and generous income, with Woodside Energy having paid about 83 cents per share in cash dividends to shareholders on Friday.

Among the majors, Woodside is up 2.83% to $35.44, while Santos is advancing 2.01% to $8.11 and Viva Energy is gaining 2.02% to $2.53 in morning trade.

Coal names are leading the move higher, with Whitehaven Coal up 6.34% to $9.81 and New Hope Corporation rising 4.24% to $5.90.

The ASX tech sector meanwhile is feeling the heat, down more than 4%, with WiseTech and Xero leading declines.

By Vishal Teckchandani

Webjet rallies after CEO quits; reaffirms guidance

[10:45 am]

Webjet Group has announced CEO Katrina Barry will step down, with the board commencing a search for her successor. She will remain through the FY26 results in May to support the transition, according to an ASX announcement from the company.

The company also reaffirmed FY26 guidance, saying demand has remained resilient despite global uncertainty, particularly across domestic and short-haul Asia-Pacific travel.

"While global uncertainty continues to influence travel behaviour, demand to date has remained resilient, with travellers increasingly favouring domestic and short-haul destinations across Asia and the Pacific," the company said.

Webjet said it remains on track to deliver underlying EBITDA of $28–29 million, excluding Webjet Business Travel, which is performing in line with plan.

Shares are up 5% in early morning trading.

By Vishal Teckchandani

National Cabinet to discuss fuel rationing

[10:30 am]

Australia’s biggest miners have asked the ACCC for approval to coordinate on fuel security, as Middle East disruptions raise concerns around diesel access for mine sites and contractors, the AFR reports.

The move matters for stocks like BHP Group, Rio Tinto and Fortescue, where any diesel squeeze would hit haulage, logistics and production continuity first.

For now, the risk remains contained, with Australia still holding roughly 30 days of diesel supply. The bigger near-term threat is panic buying and local bottlenecks rather than a national shortage.

National Cabinet is keeping rationing and purchase limits as contingency measures, but the current focus is on voluntary demand reduction and preserving supply flows.

By Vishal Teckchandani

Star locks in US$390M refinancing deal

[9:40 am]

The Star Entertainment Group (SGR) has secured a binding refinancing commitment with WhiteHawk Capital, providing a pathway to stabilise its balance sheet.

The deal will refinance existing debt in full while adding liquidity to support ongoing operations, with a three-year term and total funding of US$390 million (~A$550 million).

Key conditions include regulatory approvals and completion of asset sales, with financial covenants covering liquidity, EBITDA and asset coverage.

The company is targeting completion by mid-May, with the facility underpinning near-term funding needs and operational continuity.

IGO moves to full ownership of Copper Wolf

[9:38 am]

IGO Limited (IGO) has agreed to acquire the remaining 49% stake in the Copper Wolf project in Arizona for ~A$6.15 million, consolidating full ownership of the asset.

The transaction, subject to shareholder approval from Buxton Resources, will see IGO take 100% control of the ~12.5km² project area, including the Bobcat and Rattler prospects. Existing joint venture arrangements will be terminated.

Copper Wolf sits within a globally significant porphyry copper belt, with prior drilling confirming mineralisation across the project. IGO is now targeting further drilling in 1H27 to guide next steps.

Management said the move simplifies the asset structure and strengthens exposure to a highly prospective copper opportunity aligned with its battery materials strategy.

EML Payments names new CEO as regulatory scrutiny continues

[9:32 am]

EML Payments (EML) has announced a leadership change alongside a fresh regulatory update, with Adam Olding appointed CEO effective immediately.

Olding, who previously led the group’s Australia, UK and Europe operations, steps into the top role as Executive Chairman Anthony Hynes shifts focus toward strategy, product development and investor engagement.

On the regulatory front, subsidiary EPSL has been advised by APRA and the Reserve Bank of Australia to implement interim measures ahead of securing an ADI licence.

This includes a requirement to obtain a guarantee from an ADI for stored value liabilities by 30 April. EML said it is engaging with regulators on the structure, timing and potential cost, which remains uncertain.

Alkane secures $150M in new funding facilities

[8:53 am]

Alkane Resources (ALK) has put in place new debt facilities totalling $150 million, enhancing balance sheet flexibility.

The package includes a $110 million revolving credit facility and a $40 million contingent instrument facility, backed by a syndicate including ANZ, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Macquarie Bank and Westpac.

The move follows early repayment of prior debt and provides additional liquidity, with the RCF available for general corporate purposes.

BrainChip inks Akida 2 licensing deal with EDGEAI

BrainChip Holdings (BRN) has signed a global, non-exclusive licensing agreement with EDGEAI for its Akida 2 technology.

The deal grants EDGEAI access to Akida 2 neuromorphic IP, with BrainChip also providing integration and engineering support for upcoming SoC products.

Payments will be milestone-based, tied to IP delivery and services, alongside ongoing royalties linked to EDGEAI’s product sales.

While the financial impact is not yet quantifiable, royalties are expected to become meaningful over time.

Good morning!

[9:00 am]

ASX 200 futures are down 65 pts (-0.8%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• Aussie market to open weaker following soft Friday night in US

• Situation remains fluid, markets will also need to process weekend headlines

• Iranian-backed Houthi have entered the war in the Middle East, threatening to drive up oil prices

• Victorians and Tasmanians will receive free temporary public transport in a sign of the times