Evening Wrap: ASX 200 drifts lower on weaker energy, banks and CSL, copper stocks show their mettle

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 34.2 points lower, down 0.39%.

The ASX 200 slipped as US military strikes on missile sites in southern Iran clouded prospects for a peace deal, reversing some of Monday's optimism. Materials was the only sector to finish in positive territory, as energy stocks continued to struggle.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap. Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 34.2 points lower at 8,657.8, roughly mid-range at 0.3% from its session low and 0.4% from its high. Reflecting the softer tone at benchmark level, in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers lagged decliners by 112 to 168.

Materials (XMJ) (+0.2%) was the session's sole positive sector, continuing a run of four straight gains as investors rotated into commodities stocks in anticipation of a Strait of Hormuz resolution. COMEX copper futures added 0.4% to US$6.407/lb — with the London Metals Exchange closed for a UK public holiday. SGX iron ore futures pulled back 1.5% to US$105.15/t, though iron ore stocks largely shrugged this off.

South32 (S32) (+4.8%) was the standout, with Capstone Copper (CSC) (+2.7%), Sandfire Resources (SFR) (+2.3%), and Alcoa (AAI) (+2.0%) also advancing. BHP (BHP) (+0.4%), Fortescue (FMG) (+0.4%), and Rio Tinto (RIO) (+0.3%) all edged higher.

Lithium stocks were generally higher despite GFEX lithium carbonate futures falling 4.1% to CNY 175,780/t. Develop Global (DVP) (+5.0%), Sunrise Energy Metals (SRL) (+4.2%), IGO (IGO) (+2.7%), and Liontown Resources (LTR) (+2.7%) all gained without an obvious catalyst, while Elevra Lithium (ELV) (-7.9%) fell sharply.

Rare earths stocks tracked NdPr prices lower as the rare earth oxide fell 1.7% to CNY 675,000/t in China. Arafura Rare Earths (ARU) (-5.4%), with the added weight of its recent discounted capital raise, was the sharpest faller. Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) (-0.5%) and Iluka Resources (ILU) (-0.3%) also eased.

The Gold Sub-Index (XGD) (-1.0%) pared some of Monday's strong gains as the precious metals complex gave back intraday advances. Gold is trading +0.2% at US$4,530/oz and COMEX silver are 0.8% better at US$76.76/oz — but this was insufficient to extend the prior session's momentum. Newmont (NEM) (-2.2%), Genesis Minerals (GMD) (-2.2%), Regis Resources (RRL) (-1.8%), and Vault Minerals (VAU) (-1.8%) were all softer.

Energy (XEJ) (-0.9%) extended Monday's losses despite ICE Brent crude futures rising 1.9% to US$95.15/bbl — with oil and gas names drifting lower as investors remained cautious about the conflict's direction following the US military strikes. Santos (STO) (-0.9%) and Beach Energy (BPT) (-1.8%) were also lower, while Woodside Energy (WDS) (-0.1%) was near flat.

Whitehaven Coal (WHC) (-3.7%), Yancoal Australia (YAL) (-3.3%), and New Hope Corp. (NHC) (-1.6%) gave back a portion of Monday's Liushenyu-driven gains, though SGX Australian Premium Coking Coal futures actually surged 4.7% to US$247/t on the prior day's settle.

Uranium stocks retreated from a three-day rally — Bannerman Energy (BMN) (-4.8%), Paladin Energy (PDN) (-3.4%), and Deep Yellow (DYL) (-3.3%) all fell.

Financials (XFJ) (-0.7%) were dragged lower primarily by ASX Ltd (ASX) (-13.2%), which warned investors its FY27 cost base and capital expenditure would increase by approximately 20%. The major banks also dipped — Macquarie Group (MQG) (-1.6%) and National Australia Bank (NAB) (-0.8%) were the most notable. The four major retail banks each fell between 0.2% and 0.8%.

Health Care (XHJ) (-0.3%) was a mixed picture. CSL (CSL) (-1.6%) and Ebos Group (EBO) (-3.1%) weighed on the sector, while Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (FPH) (+9.2%) surged on a strong full-year result, providing a partial offset.

Information Technology (XIJ) (-0.5%) drifted lower, led by WiseTech Global (WTC) (-2.6%) which continued its long-term share price decline.

Consumer Staples (XSJ) (-0.8%) and Communication Services (XTJ) (-0.6%) were softer in listless session that didn't favour defensives. Woolworths (WOW) (-0.7%), Coles (COL) (-0.6%), Telstra (TLS) (-0.9%), and REA Group (REA) (-0.7%) were all lower.

Today's best ASX Top 300 gainers

Today's worst ASX Top 300 losers

ChartWatch

Nasdaq Composite Index

Analysis

No update today as US markets were closed Monday for Memorial Day. Here's the key points from yesterday's update:

"Both parties are ready to engage here, but neither is doing so with any great motivation. The prevailing short- and long-term trends, price action, and predominance of demand side candles remains intact = demand side controlled market = no change to my portfolio risk."

And as always... we remain vigilant to signs in the price action and volume that supply might be growing in influence:

• Greater prevalence of black-bodied and/or upward pointing shadows (longer length = more motivated; vs shorter length = less motivated; larger volume = larger supply side ammunition)

• A lower peak to 26708 is set, soon followed by a lower trough to 25701

• The price closes below the short term trend ribbon, soon followed by the short term trend ribbon transitioning to amber, and eventually at some point impeding upward price action by acting as a zone of dynamic excess supply

• The process is repeated at the long term trend ribbon

View

FRP (RP = Risk Position — it reflects my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in US stocks. So 1/2RP is 50%, 2/3RP is 67% and FRP is 100% 🪣).

Key levels

26708 is the key point of supply. 25701-39 is the closest point of demand, then there's the short term uptrend ribbon (presently 25071-25632). If the price closes back below this range, the supply-side is very likely back in control of the Comp's price.

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Analysis

Blip! US and European markets closed = No leads = Zero impetus to do anything here for the 6-hours the ASX was open.

Hey, at least we managed to close with a smidge downward pointing shadow = some BTD lurking about. 🤏

There is no escaping the fact that the OTP chart above is the very definition of D = S = P➡️.

Today's candle adds nothing extra to the mix.

Let's see what tomorrow brings (i.e., after overseas markets have told us what to do! 🤦)

View

I remain 1/3RP 🪣 on the OTP (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in Australian stocks is 33%).

Key levels

The short- and long-term trend ribbons (presently 8674-8740) combine to represent the key zone of supply. Beyond that, it's the not so lucky 8888 level! Demand is the 8262-8379 zone. Below that... 😱!

(Glossary of acronyms! Old Tin Pot (OTP): S&P/ASX 200 | MOTN: More Often Than Not | FOMO: Fear Of Missing Out | HOFU: Holding On For Upside | BTD: Buy The Dip | STR: Sell The Rally | RP: Risk Position)

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major economic data releases in our time zone today.

Later this week

Tuesday

• 22:00 USA May Conference Board Consumer Confidence (91.9 forecast vs 92.8 previous)

Wednesday

• 00:00 AUS April Consumer Price Index (CPI)

  • Headline: +0.6% m/m & +4.4% p.a. vs +1.1% m/m & +4.6% p.a. previous

  • Trimmed Mean: +0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.3% m/m previous

Thursday

• 09:30 AUS April Household Spending (-0.3% m/m forecast vs +1.6% m/m previous)

• 20:30 USA April Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)

  • PCE Index: +0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.3% m/m previous

  • Personal Income: +0.4% m/m forecast vs +0.6% m/m previous

  • Personal Spending: +0.5% m/m forecast vs +0.9% m/m previous

• 20:30 USA March Quarter Preliminary GDP (+2.1% p/.a forecast vs +0.7% p.a. previous)

• 20:30 USA April Core Durable Goods Orders (+0.5% m/m forecast vs +0.9% m/m previous)

• 22:00 USA April New Home Sales (661,000 forecast vs 682,000 previous)

Friday

• 09:30 AUS April Private Sector Credit (+0.6% m/m forecast vs +0.7% m/m previous)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +28.1% AnteoTech (ADO) - signed a term sheet with South Korea's Xerabrid to develop next-generation battery separator technology aimed at improving battery safety and reducing fire risk, expanding its push into the global battery market.

• +18.6% Kogan.com (KGN) - delivered a stronger-than-expected trading update with "significantly better-than-expected" EBITDA and margins driven by the core Kogan.com business, partially offset by weakness in its Mighty Ape division where revenue fell sharply versus a modest decline expected by consensus.

• +10.0% Viridis Mining and Minerals (VMM) - produced its first batch of high-grade Mixed Rare Earth Carbonate from its Demonstration Plant in Brazil, a key proof-of-concept milestone enabling finalisation of offtake discussions and validation of definitive feasibility study operating parameters.

• +9.2% Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (FPH) - delivered an in-line FY26 result with sales of NZ$2.31 billion and core net profit of NZ$68.5 million, hospital division sales rising 18% and gross margins improving despite higher freight and raw material costs; FY27 guidance midpoint sat approximately 2% below consensus.

• +3.5% GrainCorp (GNC) - Macquarie upgraded to Outperform from Neutral and lifted its price target to $6.10 from $5.90, citing consensus reset and improved seasonal conditions as offering value at a cyclical low point.

Trading lower

• -13.2% ASX Ltd. (ASX) - warned that its FY27 cost base and capital expenditure would increase by approximately 20%, with total expenses forecast to rise 18–21%, operating costs up 13–16%, and capital expenditure of $180–200 million in FY27 and $170–190 million in FY28, reflecting technology cost inflation across CHESS, cloud migration, and expanded data infrastructure.

• -7.4% Adore Beauty (ABY) - Bell Potter downgraded to Hold from Buy and slashed its price target to $0.39 from $1.00, citing a more challenging consumer environment and current market sentiment on the sector following yesterday's trading update.

• -4.9% Infratil (IFT) - full-year EBITDA of NZ$974 million was in line with expectations, but weakness in OneNZ, radiology businesses, higher development spend, and higher corporate costs were the key drags; the company flagged plans to divest Australian medical imaging provider Qscan to reinvest in data centres and renewable energy.

• -3.9% Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) - brought forward the departure of chief financial and strategy officer Stuart Boxer to June 30 from September 30, with deputy CFO Justin Pipito stepping in on an interim basis while a permanent replacement is sought.

• -3.5% Flight Centre (FLT) - investor day update failed to reconfirm FY26 underlying profit before tax guidance of $315–350 million, flagging instead that early fourth-quarter trading had been heavily impacted by Middle East tensions, with profit now expected at $286 million; leisure travel bookings remained weak with customers cautious about forward planning.

• -0.9% Santos (STO) - flagged a $300 million reduction in capital expenditure from 2027 to 2030 at its investor day, prioritising higher-margin Moomba Central production while deprioritising other Cooper Basin assets, and reiterated a free cash flow break-even oil price target of US$45–50 per barrel.

Broker Moves

Adore Beauty Group (ABY)

• Downgraded to hold from buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.39 from $1.00

Amplitude Energy (AEL)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.90 from $2.70

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $2.75 from $2.84

• Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $2.35 from $2.15

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.00

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $2.00

Alcidion Group (ALC)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.16

Bapcor (BAP)

• Upgraded to buy from hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $0.65 from $1.05

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $0.25 from $0.42

BHP Group (BHP)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $60.00

Beach Energy (BPT)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.88

Brazilian Rare Earths (BRE)

• Retained at speculative buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $6.25

Charter Hall Group (CHC)

• Retained at hold at CLSA; Price Target: $21.78 from $23.68

• Retained at neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $22.79 from $22.59

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $22.00 from $22.70

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $24.75 from $24.50

Coronado Global Resources Inc (CRN)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $0.38

Catalyst Metals (CYL)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $9.25

Endeavour Group (EDV)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $3.45

Fortescue (FMG)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $19.40

Genesis Minerals (GMD)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.00

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $10.15

Goodman Group (GMG)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $40.00

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $32.03

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $33.92

Graincorp (GNC)

• Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.10 from $5.90

Guzman Y Gomez (GYG)

• Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $18.35 from $16.55

Humm Group (HUM)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.85

Infratil (IFT)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $12.87

IGO (IGO)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.85

Mirvac Group (MGR)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.05 from $2.10

NexGen Energy (Canada) (NXG)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $21.00

PLS Group (PLS)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $5.60

Pantoro Gold (PNR)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $6.20

PEXA Group (PXA)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $12.80 from $15.70

Rio Tinto (RIO)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $183.00

Superloop (SLC)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.50

Service Stream (SSM)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.58 from $2.56

Symal Group (SYL)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $3.35

Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $22.40

Temple & Webster Group (TPW)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $8.00 from $24.00

Wildcat Resources (WC8)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.30 from $1.10

Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $9.10

Wisr (WZR)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.07

Scans