Evening Wrap: ASX 200 extends winning streak to three, BHP overtakes CBA as ASX's largest stock

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 81.5 points higher, up 0.92%.

Broad-based buying pushed the market to its strongest level since late October, despite weakness in Tech and Real Estate. Commodities rallied, as gold's smashing of the US$5,100 an ounce mark last night pushed gold stocks higher today.

BHP Group (BHP) (+2.7%) reclaimed the top market-cap spot from Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) (+0.4%), sharpening focus on rotation into Resources. Miners held up on the stronger metals tape, while property names lagged and defensives steadied into the close.

Telstra (TLS) gained 2.3% to help lift Telecommunications, while in Healthcare, Cyclopharm (CYC) jumped 20.5% after the US Society of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging named Technegas as its preferred agent for lung ventilation imaging.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 81.5 points higher at 8,941.6, 0.92% from its session high and 0.31% from its low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers beat decliners by a modest 153 to 120.

Fund flows: The best medicine... 💊

Okay, that’s more like it. Very not-OTP-like today. Of the Winners, Losers, and Swinger sectors we track here — only Information Technology (XIJ) (-0.23%) wasn’t pulling in the right direction.

We’ve noted time and again — for the ASX 200, a.k.a. the Old Tin Pot to finally break out of the funk that’s befallen it since October last year — we require greater sector participation on the up days.

Since then, it’s been largely a one-sector flex by Resources (XJR) (+1.4%), with the occasional swing-support from Financials (XFJ) (+0.85%) — which has become increasingly unreliable of late.

Given the highly concentrated nature of the OTP in major banking and mining stocks, it would take total Armageddon in the minor sectors to result in the ASX 200 logging a fall when XFJ + XJR = ⬆️/⬆️.

Communication Services (XTJ) (+1.7%) (i.e., the “Telstra Index” — TLS +2.3%), Health Care (XHJ) (+1.2%) (i.e., the “CSL Index” — CSL +1.5%), and Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (+1.1%) (i.e., the “Wesfarmers Index” — WES +2.3%) have been general drags on OTP index points for 6-months. But as you can see, each delivered a welcome and meaningful performance today.

Here’s the thing about broad-based moves like today’s: It emboldens investors to keep allocating capital (i.e., it works positively on demand-side confidence ✅). It also affirms the confidence among those already holding stocks to keep holding them (i.e., it works positively on supply-side confidence ✅).

Nothing helps prices rise than rising prices! Broad-based moves are the best medicine for investor confidence, and for stoking the essential prerequisites for any bull market: FOMO + HOFU (Fear Of Missing Out + Holding On For Upside!).

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Tomorrow sees the return of my ChartWatch *LIVE* webinars. Thousands of you either joined the live sessions or watched the recordings afterwards on our YouTube channel, and I’m excited to once again bring you practical insights into how to bolster your existing analysis with trend following — plus stock- and portfolio-level risk management.

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Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

Nasdaq Composite Index

Analysis

It appears that the Trumpigans (= Trump + Shenanigans) of last weekend have now completely washed through stock prices.

Net result?

About zero. 🤦

Apart, of course, from annoying the you know what out of investors (including us lowly trend followers…), Trump’s threats to slap tariffs on any country opposing his takeover of Greenland — have come to nothing.

One must ponder when markets will cut out the middleman and just stop reacting. Time and time (and time… ) again, it’s turned out this way: Trumpigans… Initial shock across markets = prices fall… He backs away = prices rally back to exactly where they started. ♻️

If there is a silver lining, it's that the technicals are so far assisting in us reacting in a measured way. That last dip was disturbing, but it has gone unconfirmed. The short term trend has transitioned to neutral, granted, but with 22916 > 22692 > 21898, the price action looks intact. The long term uptrend ribbon appears similarly unperturbed.

In keeping with the full circle theme: here we are again… staring down the barrel of what feels like an impenetrable barrier of overhead supply at 23722-24020. There’s a bunch of stock holders that see value in that zone.

Not “value” as in “Ooh… stocks look cheap here” — you’re only thinking like a buyer. “Value” as in: “Ooh, that’s a great place to let go… to de-risk… and go to cash (or whatever else appears to be better “value” than these stocks I’ve been holding)”.

The bull market is on pause until that supply is consumed. It’s that simple. If there’s enough motivation and ammunition among the demand-side = it will happen.

If not, or if the opposite (too much motivation and ammunition among the supply-side) = it won’t.

Way to state the bleedingly obvious, Carl!

Okay, my point is this: The price action and volume will tell us which side is winning the battle!

1. Fingerprints of demand = White-bodied candles and or downward pointing shadows (bigger = greater motivation) + above average volume to indicate we’ve consumed the supply holding down prices (bigger = greater ammunition).

2. Fingerprints of supply = Black-bodied candles and or upward pointing shadows (bigger = greater motivation) + above average volume to indicate we’ve consumed the demand critical to maintain this bull market (bigger = greater ammunition).

You know I don’t do predictions… because the future is unknown and prediction is futile!!! I only deal in MOTN (More Often Than Not).

For me, this lies in following the long term uptrend — assuming there’s nothing particularly sinister in the short term trend, price action, candles, and volume to suggest otherwise. There isn’t on the latter, so the former = Stay the course for now! 📈

View

I remain at a 2/3RP portfolio risk limit 🪣 (RP = Risk Position — it reflects my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in US stocks. So 1/2RP is 50%, 2/3RP is 67% and FRP is 100%). A close below 22692 would trigger a move to 1/2RP.

Key levels

The next zone of demand is 22692-916. If the Comp closes below that zone, we can assume the supply side is in control. On a close below 21898 the long term uptrend is likely under significant pressure = ⚠️. 23722-24020 is the nearest critical zone of supply — the Comp must close within/above this zone with a strong demand-side candle to confirm the demand-side is unequivocally back in control of the Comp's price.

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Analysis

Oh, the Old Tin Pot… Did I ever say you’d never make it? 🤔

It wasn’t me!? I knew you’d finally come through!

Who said the OTP would never make it!? Not me!

Well OTP, a big pat on the back for you. You shrugged off last week’s Trumpigans — at a time when your fledgling rally was just taking root — to finally come through!

I’ll even forgive that little upward pointing shadow today… because… you know… Old Tin Pot and all… because whilst I’m at risk of mixing ChartWatch memes here — I’ll take it! 😉

Present OTP technicals:

• Short term / Long term trend: ⬆️/⬆️ ✅

• Price Action: Rising peaks and rising troughs (i.e. consistent with supply removal and demand reinforcement, buy the dip + FOMO into rallies). ✅

• Candles: Predominantly demand-side in nature (i.e. consistent with pervasive programmed buy orders, lack of strong opposing sell orders). ✅

• Volume: Benign, nothing special going on there… which is okay… symptomatic of very little motivated / large supply. ✅

Next stop: 9110-16. That’s the big / real test. Big white candle + close > 9116 + emphatic close on session high + obliterate latent supply massive volume spike… well that would earn the OTP an upgrade to Golden Le Creuset! 🏆🍲

View

I remain comfortable at 2/3RP 🪣 (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in Australian stocks is now 67%).

Key levels

The short term trend ribbon is the closest zone of (dynamic) demand (presently 8767-8796). 8765 is the closest static point of demand. A close below it/the short term uptrend ribbon would neutralise the present short term uptrend, while a close below 8675 almost certainly would end it. The October all-time highs around 9110-9116 is the next key zone of supply.

Economy

Today

• AUD December NAB Business Confidence m/m

  • Result: +3 m/m vs +2 m/m in November

Later this week

Wednesday

• 11:30 December AUD CPI

  • Monthly: +0.7% m/m forecast and +0.0% m/m in November

  • Yearly: +3.5% p.a. to December forecast and +3.4% p.a. to November

Thursday

• 11:30 AUD December Import Prices q/q (-0.2% m/m forecast and -0.4% m/m in November)

• 06:00 USA Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)

  • Federal Funds Rate: no change at +3.75% p.a. forecast

  • 06:30 Press Conference with Jerome Powell

Friday

• 11:30 AUD December Producer Price Index (PPI) q/q (+1.1% q/q forecast vs +1% q/q September)

• 11:30 AUD December Private Sector Credit m/m (+0.6% m/m forecast and +0.6% m/m in November)

Saturday

• 12:30 USA December Core PPI m/m (+0.2% m/m forecast vs 0% m/m in November)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +12.9% EQ Resources (EQR) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +10.9% Supply Network (SNL) – No news since 23-Jan Earnings forecast half year December 2025 and dividend.

• +10.4% 29METALS (29M) – No news, general strength across the broader Copper sector today.

• +8.5% Bougainville Copper 1 Kina (BOC) – No news, general strength across the broader Copper sector today.

• +8.3% Dateline Resources (DTR) – IP Survey Completed Ahead of Diamond Drilling, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +8.3% Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX) – Becoming a substantial holder (JPMorgan Chase & Co +5.5%), general strength across the broader HealthCare sector today.

• +7.5% Capstone Copper Corp. (CSC) – No news, general strength across the broader Coal sector today.

• +6.3% Silver Mines (SVL) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +5.8% Elsight (ELS) – Quarterly Activity Report and Appendix 4C.

• +5.1% Pro Medicus (PME) – No news, general strength across the broader HealthCare sector today.

Trading lower

• -10.5% Energy Transition Minerals (ETM) – Quarterly Activities/Appendix 5B Cash Flow Report, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -9.9% Qoria (QOR) – Continued negative response to 20-Jan Quarterly Activities/Appendix 4C Cash Flow Report, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and falling peaks and falling troughs, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -9.0% Santana Minerals (SMI) – Quarterly Activities and Cashflow Report, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -8.9% Alcoa Corp. (AAI) – Continued negative response to 23-Jan Form 8-K, Items 2.02 and 9.01N.

• -8.6% Life360 (360) – No news, pulled back after Friday’s sharp rally due to Update on Preliminary Q4 2025 and Full Year Results.

• -6.5% Droneshield (DRO) – Quarterly Activities/Appendix 4C Cash Flow Report and 4Q25 4C Results - Investor Presentation, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

Broker Moves

Life360 Inc (360)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $45.00 from $52.50

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $40.75 from $47.00

• Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $41.20 from $56.15

• Retained at overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $47.00 from $58.00

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $58.50

Abacus Group (ABG)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.26 from $1.31

Australian Clinical Labs (ACL)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.90

Aurelia Metals (AMI)

• Initiated at buy at Blue Ocean Equities; Price Target: $0.55

Ansell (ANN)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $36.00 from $36.50

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $35.80 from $33.50

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $36.70 from $37.20

Arena REIT (ARF)

• Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.00 from $4.01

Aurizon Holdings (AZJ)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.37 from $3.08

BHP Group (BHP)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $55.50 from $56.50

Beach Energy (BPT)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.10 from $1.12

Charter Hall Group (CHC)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $23.71 from $23.83

Centuria Industrial REIT (CIP)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.23 from $3.56

Charter Hall Long Wale REIT (CLW)

• Upgraded to neutral from underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.96 from $4.20

Centuria Capital Group (CNI)

• Upgraded to neutral from underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.10

Cochlear (COH)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $300.00

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $295.90

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $270.00 from $280.00

Computershare (CPU)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $32.10 from $31.90

Charter Hall Retail REIT (CQR)

• Downgraded to neutral from outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.01 from $4.41

CSL (CSL)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $225.00

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $188.00

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $242.00 from $256.00

Digico Infrastructure REIT (DGT)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.89 from $4.16

Dexus Industria REIT (DXI)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.90 from $3.14

Dexus (DXS)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.38 from $8.46

EBOS Group (EBO)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $26.00

Eureka Group Holdings (EGH)

• Initiated at buy at Unified Capital Partners; Price Target: $0.77

EVT (EVT)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $16.50 from $18.00

Fortescue (FMG)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $20.30 from $19.30

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $19.00 from $19.75

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation (FPH)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $42.00

Gemlife Communities Group (GLF)

• Initiated at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $5.60

Goodman Group (GMG)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $34.73

Growthpoint Properties Australia (GOZ)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.53 from $2.69

GPT Group (GPT)

• Downgraded to neutral from outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.55 from $6.23

HealthCo Healthcare and Wellness REIT (HCW)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.79 from $0.78

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.27 from $1.41

Healius (HLS)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.88 from $0.80

HMC Capital (HMC)

• Downgraded to neutral from outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.63 from $4.90

LendLease Group (LLC)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.73 from $6.74

Light & Wonder Inc. (LNW)

• Initiated at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $220.00

Liontown (LTR)

• Upgraded to trim from sell at Morgans; Price Target: $2.00 from $0.89

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $17.65 from $17.55

Mirvac Group (MGR)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.65 from $2.70

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.40 from $2.45

Mineral Resources (MIN)

• Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $66.00 from $47.00

Macquarie Group (MQG)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $210.00

Mayfield Group Holdings (MYG)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.60 from $2.30

Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $21.20

National Storage REIT (NSR)

• Downgraded to neutral from outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.63

Netwealth Group (NWL)

• Upgraded to accumulate from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $28.90 from $35.48

PLS Group (PLS)

• Upgraded to trim from sell at Morgans; Price Target: $4.60 from $3.10

Pro Medicus (PME)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $350.00

Pioneer Credit (PNC)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.85

Pantoro Gold (PNR)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $6.05 from $5.35

Polynovo (PNV)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.90

Perenti (PRN)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.10

Qualitas (QAL)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.04 from $3.98

Regis Healthcare (REG)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.90

Region Group (RGN)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.26 from $2.47

Ramsay Health Care (RHC)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $39.00 from $36.00

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $38.30 from $37.10

• Downgraded to underweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $34.20 from $34.80

ResMed Inc. (RMD)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $51.00

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $49.20

Regis Resources (RRL)

• Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $7.50 from $6.30

South32 (S32)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.75 from $4.70

Scentre Group (SCG)

• Downgraded to underperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.64 from $4.15

Stockland (SGP)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.45 from $6.16

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.80 from $6.90

Sonic Healthcare (SHL)

• Downgraded to sell from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $21.00 from $23.50

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $25.20

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $25.20 from $24.50

Santos (STO)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.53 from $6.55

Tabcorp Holdings (TAH)

• Downgraded to underweight from overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $0.93 from $1.02

The Lottery Corporation (TLC)

• Upgraded to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $5.70 from $5.60

Telstra Group (TLS)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.08 from $5.04

Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $34.00

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $25.60

TPG Telecom (TPG)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.06 from $5.60

Vicinity Centres (VCX)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.33 from $2.49

Scans