ASX 200 Live Today - Tuesday, 27th January

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Tuesday, January 27. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 higher, nears three month-high

[2:10 pm] A very solid session, with fairly broad participation outside of the sluggish tech sector and yield-sensitive real estate stocks. The S&P/ASX 200 is currently up 0.89%, a little off session highs of 1.23% but on track to close at the highest since 29 October 2025. It'll be interesting to see if BHP overtaking CBA in market cap will result in any further rotation/inflows in to the resource sector. Despite a choppy overnight session for commodity prices, most have continued to trend higher on Tuesday (e.g. gold up 1.1% to US$5,069 and silver up 5.7% to US$109.8). Overall, the market's had a pretty solid run in recent weeks, where pullbacks have been relatively shallow, marking a strong trend of higher highs and lower lows. Though the ex-resources backdrop has been a rather turbulent one, with the RBA now priced for two rate hikes by year end, the Aussie 10-year back near recent highs of 4.83%, lingering inflation concerns and a big ramp up in geopolitical tensions.

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BHP overtakes CBA as the largest ASX-listed company

[1:57 pm] BHP has topped CBA in market capitalisation for the first time since September 2024. The broad-based resources rally has propped up BHP's share price up 9% year-to-date, while CBA has continued to slip, down 6.7% over the same time period.

BHP vs. CBA share price returns (%) top, market cap (bottom) | Source: TradingView

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Copper stocks trading sharply higher

[12:47 pm] Copper names are trading broadly higher despite copper prices slipping 0.2% on Tuesday and down 0.7% in the last two sessions to US$5.93/lb.

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Banks broadly higher, still mostly rangebound

[12:44 pm] S&P/ASX 200 Financials Index up 0.98%, slightly off intraday highs of 1.24%. A relatively broad-based move, with notably gains from Macquarie (+2.3%), QBE (+1.4%), NAB( +1.2%), ANZ (+0.9%) and Commonwealth Bank (+0.6%).

The Index remains relatively rangebound and ~8% away from its late October record high.

S&P/ASX 200 Financials daily chart (Source: TradingView)

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AUB Group provides Prestige acquisition call update

[12:39 pm] AUB hosted a conference call regarding its 1H26 results, Prestige deal and future growth initiatives for UK and international operations.

• 1H26 UNPAT expected at $90–91m, FY26 guidance reaffirmed at $215–227m, excluding Prestige and step-ups

• Prestige acquisition EPS neutral pre-synergies, low to mid-single digit accretive post-synergies for CY25, cost synergies expected >$10m AUD by FY27

• Post-transaction leverage ~2.47x with $303, AUD cash and undrawn debt available for further investments

• UK retail broking portfolio post-Prestige to place nearly £550, in premium across 200+ client locations, international division targeting 32% consolidated margin over 3–5 years

• Further portfolio consolidation and equity step-ups planned through CY26 to enhance scale and margin

Company page: AUB Group (AUB)

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Tungsten moves from obscurity to strategic metal

[12:24 pm] Tungsten’s critical role in defence, industry, and high-tech manufacturing is driving a global supply scramble as Western reliance on China exposes decades of underinvestment. This under-the-radar metal is all the rage right now – but there are literally only a handful of ASX-listed

• Tungsten is essential for armour-piercing munitions, high-end tooling, and industrial machinery, making it a front-line strategic material

• Western stockpiles depleted over decades while China became the dominant supplier, now restricting exports and dual-use products

• Global tungsten production ~84,000–98,000tpa, with ~50% consumed in China and ~10,000–11,000tpa in the US alone

Tungsten Mining (TGN) completed a $53 million placement (19 cents per new share or a 14% discount) this morning.

Instead of falling back towards the raise price, the stock rallied as much as 37% ($0.31), and currently up 20% ($0.27).

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Top ASX 200 gainers and losers

[11:17 am] Quite an odd mix of gainers and losers, no major sector moves/themes, though tech/growth and uranium names trending lower. BHP also crossed the $50 per share level for the first time on record.

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ASX 200 nears three-month high

[10:34 am] ASX 200 up 0.96% in early trade, currently hovering intraday highs. The market is now trading within 2% of all-time highs and at its highest level since late October. Solid breadth with ten out of 11 sectors in positive territory, with Telcos, Materials, Utilities and Energy all up more than 1.0%. In terms of S&P/ASX 200 constituents, approximately 132 (66%) higher, with some pockets of weakness in Tech, Industrials, REITs and Materials sub-sectors like uranium and lithium.

S&P/ASX 200 sectors (Source: Market Index)

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AUB to acquire UK insurance platform Prestige

[10:06 am] AUB is expanding its UK footprint with the acquisition of Prestige, while maintaining solid underlying profitability and ongoing M&A activity.

• Agreed to acquire 95.9% of Prestige for $432m, adding £300m GWP in the UK

• Acquisition values Prestige at 12.9x CY25 EBITDA, falling to 10.0x with synergies

• Enhances UK scale (~£720m GWP), specialist broking, MGA capabilities and operating efficiency

• Funding includes $400m institutional placement, $40m share purchase plan and $200m debt facility with Macquarie at improved terms

• Continued M&A with ~30 deals in 1H26, including $96m for Step-ups in Pacific Indemnity and AUB 360

• 1H26 UNPAT expected at $90–91m, FY26 guidance reaffirmed at $215–227m UNPAT (ex Prestige and Step-ups)

The placement will issue new shares at $29.40, which represents a 7.9% discount to the last closing price.

Company page: AUB Group (AUB)

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Galan Lithium trading halted ahead of capital raising announcement

[9:54 am] Galan Lithium requested a trading halt this morning, pending the release of an announcement regarding a capital raising. Shares in Galan Lithium have rallied 46.8% year-to-date and 308% in the past twelve months.

The company reported $14.9 million in cash and cash equivalents at the end of the December quarter.

Company page: Galan Lithium (GLN)

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Michael Hill International trading update

[9:43 am] Michael Hill reports solid sales and earnings growth for the first half, supported by strong performances across key markets and effective capital management.

• Comparable EBIT expected at $27m–$30m, up 12–24% year-on-year

• Group sales of $370.3m up +3.1% year-on-year

• Same-store sales +3.8%. Canada +6.1%, Australia +4.8%, New Zealand +1.8%.

• Gross margin broadly flat at ~61.3%, with higher input costs offset by improved product mix and promotional focus.

• Inventory reduced to ~$203m to improve working capital efficiency.

• Positive net cash position of ~$20m, up ~$30m year-on-year, with debt refinanced with improved terms and a new lender introduced.

Shares in MHJ have tumbled 27% in the past twelve months. The retail stock now trades at a $142 million market cap despite sitting on ~$203 million in inventory plus $20 million in cash.

Company page: Michael Hill (MHJ)

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Santos delivers first Barossa LNG cargo

[9:36 am] Santos has successfully loaded the first LNG cargo from the Barossa project, marking on-time and on-budget delivery of the world-class development.

• The Kool Blizzard departed Darwin LNG on 25 January, bound for Japan’s Sakai terminal on a delivered ex-ship basis.

• Santos holds a 50% interest in the Barossa Gas Project, with partners PRISM Energy International Australia (37.5%) and JERA Australia (12.5%).

• Project achieved within six months of planned start date and without using additional contingency, demonstrating Santos’ disciplined low-cost operating model and self-execution capability.

• Barossa LNG is expected to support ~300 permanent Northern Territory jobs over 20 years, with A$2.5bn in wages and contracts flowing locally.

Santos experienced a 5.3% rally last Thursday (22-Jan) after the company reported a strong Q4 result, with revenue ahead of market expectations and major projects like Barossa and Pikka progressing towards key milestones. This is what analysts had to say after the quarterly.

• RBC Capital Markets retained Sector Perform, target $6.75. Production guidance seen as achievable, Barossa delays manageable, with medium-term margin risk from GLNG and minor cost pressure at Pikka.

• Macquarie retained Outperform, target $7.75. Ramp-up milestones de-risk the investment, Barossa and Pikka execution closely monitored, limited divestment flexibility, Investor Day expected to reset narrative.

• UBS retained Buy, target $7.80. Ramp-up narrative gaining credibility, capital allocation a key challenge, infrastructure monetisation considered, dividend policy shift welcomed but execution critical.

Santos daily price chart (Source: TradingView) | Company page: Santos (STO)

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AUB Group halts trading ahead of capital raise

[9:31 am] Trading in AUB Group has been suspended pending an announcement regarding a proposed capital raising via an institutional placement and share purchase plan.

Company page: AUB Group (AUB)

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Cyclopharm’s Technegas gains US clinical guideline recognition

[9:23 am] A new US draft guideline formally recognises Cyclopharm’s Technegas® as a preferred agent for lung imaging, marking a major step for adoption in US clinical practice.

• The US Society of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging and American College of Nuclear Medicine, in collaboration with EANM and international experts, released the draft Procedure Standard and Guideline for V/Q Pulmonary Scintigraphy for public consultation.

• Technegas is explicitly cited as generally preferred for most conditions, including pulmonary embolism assessment, highlighting enhanced diagnostic accuracy and clinical utility.

• The guideline is expected to accelerate US adoption, broaden institutional use, and integrate Technegas into standard hospital workflows.

• This is the first comprehensive US-aligned nuclear medicine lung imaging guidance update since 2012, reflecting over a decade of clinical and technological progress.

Company page: Cyclopharm (CYC)

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DroneShield reports 4Q25 results

[9:22 am] DroneShield reported its December quarter results this morning, with key highlights including:

• Revenue up 94% QoQ to $51.3m, marking the second highest quarter-to-date (3Q25 record at $92.9m)

• Cash receipts up 142% QoQ to $63.5m, also second highest customer cash receipts quarter-to-date (3Q25 record of $77.4m)

• SaaS revenue up 475% QoQ to $4.6m, with management expecting segment earnings to "keep rising"

• Operating cash flow up 187% QoQ to $7.7m, "targeting to be consistently operating cash flow positive and profitable moving forward"

DroneShield shares are still down ~33% since its 9-Oct-25 record high but up ~170% since its 21-Nov-25. The stock experienced a massive selloff late last year after directors including CEO Oleg Vornik and two Non-Executive Directors sold all their shares on-market.

Company page: Droneshield (DRO)

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Massive intraday pullback for commodities

[9:13 am] Commodity prices experienced a massive intraday reversal, with most erasing an earlier sharp rally to end near breakeven.

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Stanmore delivers record production and strong cash flow

[9:08 am] Stanmore achieved quarterly and full-year production records while navigating early-year operational challenges, supporting robust cash generation and improved liquidity.

• Key Q4 metrics: Quarterly ROM production of 6.0Mt, saleable production of 3.9Mt, and sales of 4.0Mt, contributing to full-year saleable production of 14.0Mt, in-line with mid-point of revised guidance.

• Maintained healthy inventory, holding over 1.5Mt of ROM heading into the wet season.

• Net debt reduced by US$57m to finish the year at US$33m.

• Liquidity strengthened with revolving credit facility increased to US$200m, giving total available liquidity of US$482m including GEAR facility and cash on hand.

Management commentary: Market conditions improved over the course of the period, with premium hard coking coal prices rising to approximately US$218 per tonne. This late rally provided welcome relief after a challenging year for metallurgical coal markets. The improvement was driven by stronger demand for seaborne material from China and India, compounded by ongoing supply concerns during Australia’s wet season.

Company page: Stanmore (SMR)

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Trump threatens Canada with 100% tariff escalation

[9:01 am] Over the weekend, US-Canada trade tensions sharply intensified after President Trump warned of sweeping tariffs if Ottawa deepens trade ties with China.

• Trump threatened 100% tariffs on all Canadian exports if Canada proceeds with trade deals with China, citing concerns over Chinese influence and EV imports.

• Canada insists it is not pursuing a free trade deal, framing the agreement with Beijing as limited tariff relief on agriculture and electric vehicles.

• The dispute comes as Canada pivots trade policy toward Asia, allowing 49,000 Chinese EVs at a 6% tariff and seeking reduced Chinese tariffs on canola.

• Markets remain sceptical of follow-through, given Trump’s history of tariff threats that are later walked back.

Source: Bloomberg

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US backs rare earths push with $1.6bn funding pact

[8:59 am] The White House has struck another major deal to accelerate domestic rare earths supply, underscoring the strategic push to reduce reliance on China.

• USA Rare Earth signed a non-binding agreement for $1.6bn in Commerce Department funding alongside $1.5bn in private capital.

• Funding would support mining, processing and magnet manufacturing, including development of the Round Top deposit in Texas and expansion of the Oklahoma magnet plant.

• Round Top is positioned as the richest heavy rare earth deposit in North America, with dysprosium and terbium critical for defence and high-performance magnets.

• The deal targets heavy rare earths, a segment where US supply is especially constrained and strategically sensitive.

• Government funding is milestone-based, limiting taxpayer risk and aligning support with project delivery.

USA Rare Earth shares closed the overnight session up just 7.8%, down from intraday highs of 29.4%.

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Dollar slides to multi-month lows

[8:57 am] The US dollar has resumed its decline, hitting its weakest level since September as policy uncertainty and renewed debasement fears weigh on sentiment.

• The dollar index has fallen below 97, down around 12% from its January peak, prompting renewed debate about longer-term dollar valuation and inflation risks.

• Intervention signals from Japan are a key driver, with reports the New York Fed conducted rate checks and Japanese officials warning against speculative FX moves.

• USD/JPY has dropped 3.5% in days, falling from near 160 to below 154, the weakest level since September.

• Precious metals have surged to record highs as the debasement trade re-emerges amid tariff threats and fiscal brinkmanship in Washington.

US Dollar Index weekly price chart (Source: TradingView)

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Big Tech enters AI prove-it quarter

[8:54 am] Big Tech earnings kick off with heightened scrutiny on whether heavy AI spending is translating into measurable returns as growth leadership broadens beyond the mega-caps.

• Investor focus has shifted to a “show-me” phase, with AI capex under the microscope and limited tolerance for missed targets after past capex-driven sell-offs.

• Cloud growth is a key swing factor, with Azure growth expectations around 36% and rising attention on Copilot monetisation alongside risks tied to OpenAI exposure.

• Alphabet is viewed as a cleaner cloud growth story, but its shares face a higher bar after strong outperformance relative to Microsoft.

• Apple’s results are expected to hinge more on margins, component costs and seasonal dynamics than AI infrastructure spend.

• Big Tech earnings growth is slowing to around 20%, the weakest since early 2023, reinforcing the narrative of market leadership broadening to smaller and more cyclical stocks.

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US shutdown risk rises as border immigration activities sparks standoff

[8:51 am] A fatal Border Patrol shooting has triggered a Democratic revolt over immigration funding, sharply increasing the risk of a US government shutdown ahead of the January 30 deadline.

• Democrats are threatening to block Department of Homeland Security funding unless new safeguards on ICE and Border Patrol are added, risking a broader shutdown across multiple agencies.

• Immigration enforcement would likely continue largely unaffected due to prior supplemental funding, but a shutdown would disrupt tax refunds, small business loans and key economic data.

• Polling shows growing public disapproval of ICE enforcement, blunting a traditional Republican advantage on immigration despite the issue dominating the standoff.

• Republicans are signalling they will reject Democratic demands and resist splitting DHS funding from the broader spending package, raising the odds of at least a brief shutdown.

• Markets and businesses face near-term uncertainty, with potential delays to the unemployment report and IRS processing as tax season begins.

Polymarket odds of a US government funding lapse by 31 January currently sit at 89%.

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BlueScope seeks to force higher bid tension

[8:48 am] BlueScope is actively canvassing alternative suitors in Asia as it seeks to drive up takeover value after rejecting a $13.2bn approach it views as opportunistic, according to an AFR article on Monday.

• Senior executives held talks with Nippon Steel and POSCO about strategic options, including a partial stake or full takeover, aimed at flushing out a rival offer.

• The rejected $30 per share bid from SGH and Steel Dynamics implies $13.2bn and would split BlueScope’s Australian and North American operations, a structure the board has criticised.

• Investor expectations are clearly higher, with shares closing at $30.47 and major shareholders signalling support only for a materially improved price.

• L1 Capital sees fair value above $33 per share, while Jefferies’ sum-of-the-parts valuation including a typical bid premium is closer to $40 per share.

Source: AFR

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Rick Rieder emerges as leading Fed chair contender

[8:46 am] BlackRock executive Rick Rieder is gaining momentum in the race to lead the Federal Reserve, with growing support from markets and senior policymakers as President Trump nears a decision.

• Rieder is viewed favourably for his Wall Street credibility, reform-oriented ideas for the Fed and lack of prior Fed employment, which is seen as preserving independence from the institution.

• Other finalists include Kevin Hassett, Chris Waller and Kevin Warsh, though Trump has signalled he may prefer to keep Hassett in his White House role.

• A key concern within Trump’s inner circle is whether Rieder would aggressively cut rates in-line with presidential preferences or assert Fed independence.

• Trump has completed interviews and could announce his pick as soon as next week, with the choice seen as critical amid voter concerns over inflation, housing and affordability.

Polymarket currently has Rieder as the favourite at 45%, followed by Warsh (29%), Waller (9%) and Hassett (7%).

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Q4 US earnings momentum softens

[8:42 am] Early Q4 reporting points to solid but moderating earnings growth, with beat rates and surprise magnitudes slipping below recent averages.

• Q4 EPS growth at 8.2%, marginally below the 8.3% expected at quarter-end, while blended revenue growth stands at 7.8%.

• Only 13% of S&P 500 companies have reported so far, but 75% beat EPS expectations, below the one-year average of 79% and five-year average of 78%.

• Revenue beats are also softer, with 69% exceeding sales ests versus 71% one-year and 70% five-year averages.

• Aggregate EPS surprise of 5.3% trails the one-year average of 7.4% and five-year average of 7.7%.

• Aggregate sales surprise of 0.6% is well below the one-year average of 1.3% and five-year average of 2.0%, suggesting top-line delivery is the key drag this quarter.

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Good morning!

[8:32 am] ASX 200 futures are up 48 pts (+0.54%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks mostly higher following a volatile session featuring rising odds of a US government shutdown, still-solid Q4 earnings, a Blackrock executive emerging as the likely Fed Chair and more

• Gold and silver prices surged to historic levels of US$5,111 and US$117 respectively, but quickly gave back gains

• Commodity prices, more broadly speaking, experienced a rip and dip move overnight (e.g. Palladium rallied as much as 7.1%, now down 3.7%)

To catch up on all overnight developments, check out today's Morning Wrap.