Evening Wrap: ASX 200 dips but flips the script for the week, up 4.4% even as tech wreck continues

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 12.6 points lower, down 0.14%.

The ASX 200 slipped slightly on Friday as traders pared risk ahead of weekend peace talks in Pakistan, capping a week that nonetheless delivered the market's biggest weekly gain since 2020.

With the ceasefire still fragile and the Strait of Hormuz far from fully reopened, caution ruled the final session — eight of eleven major sectors finished lower.

In stock specific news:

• Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX) (+7.3%) — US regulator accepted its resubmitted application for a brain cancer imaging product

• AMP (AMP) (+4.2%) — AGM flagged growth in its wealth division, expanded AI use, and tighter capital allocation

• Magellan Financial (MFG) (+1.2%) — 92.28% of shareholders voted in favour of a $1.6 billion merger with Barrenjoey

• Viva Energy (VEA) (+0.4%) — received federal environmental approval for its proposed LNG import terminal in Geelong

• Life360 (360) (-3.3%) — flagged job cuts as it reshapes its business around an AI-led strategy

• Whitehaven Coal (WHC) (-3.2%) — easing geopolitical risk weighed on coal as an oil alternative, despite the company refinancing acquisition debt via a new US$600 million syndicated facility

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 12.6 points lower at 8,960.6, 0.62% from its session low and just 0.14% from its high. Despite the dip in the benchmark, in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers sneak past decliners at 146 to 138.

For the week, the XJO finished up a massive 381 points or 4.4% higher, that much from its intraweek low and just 0.3% from its intraweek high. Very solid indeed.

Real Estate (XPJ) (+0.9%) was the session's best performer, with interest rate-sensitive sectors like it and Utilities (XUJ) (+0.3%) finding modest support even without a clear lead from the bond market. BWP Trust (BWP) (+2.2%) was a notable mover in real estate, while APA Group (APA) (+0.7%) was best in utilities.

Financials (XFJ) (+0.3%) managed a small gain, supported by AMP (AMP) (+4.2%), Zip (ZIP) (+3.1%), and Netwealth (NWL) (+2.3%). Most of the major banks also firmed, with Commonwealth Bank (CBA) (+0.5%) the notable among the big four.

Information Technology (XIJ) (-1.8%) continued its bruising week as the fallout of yesterday's sector price target cuts by Morgan Stanley continued to bite. Life360 (360) (-3.3%), Xero (XRO) (-2.7%), and WiseTech Global (WTC) (-2.6%) were all lower again.

Healthcare stocks were caught in the same high-PE, long-duration selloff, with Cochlear (COH) (-0.8%) and CSL (CSL) (-0.7%) both softer.

Energy (XEJ) (-0.5%) came under renewed selling pressure even as Brent crude futures firmed 1.4% to US$97.34/bbl in the Asian session — the disconnect reflecting easing geopolitical risk rather than the oil price itself.

Coal stocks bore the worst of the selling, with Whitehaven Coal (WHC) (-3.2%) and Yancoal Australia (YAL) (-3.0%) both hit hard as benchmark coal futures traded lower. Santos (STO) (-0.6%) and Woodside Energy (WDS) (-0.2%) also edged lower, while Karoon Energy (KAR) (+0.8%) was one of few that bucked the trend.

The Gold Sub-Index (XGD) (-0.6%) ebbed as COMEX gold futures slipped 0.9% to US$4,775/oz, with Bellevue Gold (BGL) (-3.2%) and Ramelius Resources (RMS) (-3.2%) among the harder-hit names after the sector's heroics earlier in the week.

Resources (XJR) (-0.6%) drifted lower, led by iron ore stocks despite the SGX benchmark iron ore futures recovering 0.7% to US$103.60/t. Champion Iron (CIA) (-3.9%) and Fortescue (FMG) (-1.3%) were both weaker, while BHP (BHP) (-1.1%) and Rio Tinto (RIO) (-0.3%) also slipped.

Base metals on the LME overnight were generally lower, though COMEX copper futures edged up 0.4% to US$5.78/lb. In other commodities moves, COMEX silver futures fell 1.0% to US$75.65/oz, while GFEX lithium carbonate futures in China firmed 0.8% to 155,400 CNY/t.

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

Nasdaq Composite Index

Analysis

Yep, that’s about it… no surprises in Thursday’s Comp candle.

And that’s nice, isn’t it? No surprises! ☺️

It’s also neat to look at a candle like Thursday’s, put it into context against recent price action — and say: I understand exactly what’s going on in the demand-supply environment.

Trust me when I tell you: That’s far more than most average investors can say! Nope, they’re still reading the headlines, scrolling social media for hot tips, and scrounging for titbits of “fundamental” data! 😉

Hey, it’s Friday, I’m heading to Rotto for the weekend, let’s cut the chat — time to Analyse!

• ST Trend = 🟧 = ➡️ = D vs S = ⚖️ But! Price > ST trend ribbon and short term trend ribbon back to ↗️ = ✔️

• LT Trend = 🟧 = ➡️ = D vs S = ⚖️ But! Price > LT trend ribbon and short term trend ribbon back to ↗️ = ✔️

• Price action = rising peaks + rising troughs = FOMO + HOFU + BTD = ✅

• Candles = (since 20690) predominantly demand-side in nature (i.e., white-bodied and or with downward pointing shadows) = pervasive excess demand, likely caused by dominant algorithmic buy orders = ✅

I make it 2 x okays ✔️ + 2 x good ✅

Bottom line: I Accept the demand-side is in control of the Comp’s short term price action at the very least. It’s not yet total and overwhelming control, there remains a number of points of supply to consume, and the trend ribbons are not yet confirmed as zones of dynamic demand (consider: we’ve only seen demand-side strength since 20690 — but how will the demand-side handle a bit of uncertainty thrown their way? Will they stand firm at the trend ribbons and buy the dip, or does the price action dissolve back into downtrend? 🤔).

Am I sure about what’s going to happen next? Nope, on the contrary, I have no idea because I can’t tell the future. 🤷But I’m okay with that! Because, sure, anything can happen next… the ceasefire doesn’t hold (hey — Middle East ceasefires are ironclad guarantees… Right!? 🤦)… But none of it matters! I trust that my analysis will be correct MOTN if I’ve followed D vs S = P!

So, as far as the Act part is concerned, given we’ve got the foundations but not the confirmation of strong demand-side control — my present portfolio risk limit of 1/2RP feels suitable. If I see a strong test-and-hold of the trend ribbons, I’d be happy to upgrade this to 2/3RP, but should I see a close back below the trend ribbons, I’ll simply downgrade back to 1/3RP.

So, there you have it, the three A’s of investing as I see it: What’s happening, what I need to do about it, and my plan for what must occur to take my next steps. Everything is explicitly defined in terms of D vs S = P.

The rest is up to the market now*.

(*Again, compare this approach with the average investor’s approach 🙈! Have a great weekend everyone! 🏖️)

View

1/2RP (RP = Risk Position — it reflects my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in US stocks. So 1/3RP is 33%, 1/2RP is 50%, 2/3RP is 67% and FRP is 100% 🪣).

Key levels

22570-23321 is the next key zone of supply. Supply-side candles near / in that range are a warning sign that the present rally is faltering.

The short- and long-term trend ribbon combo (presently 21797-22376) is now the key zone of demand. A test and hold of that range would really confirm this newfound semblance of demand-side control. If the price closes back below this range, the supply-side is very likely back in control of the Comp's price.

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Analysis

Let’s go ditto on the ASX 200, aka, the Old Tin Pot — there’s absolutely nothing surprising about today’s price action. ✅

If this is the first time you’re reading ChartWatch in an Evening Wrap, then commiserations… you’ve just joined many other long-suffering readers who pick through my ramblings about D… blah, S… blah… P… blah and AAA blah blah blah each day!

I refer you to yesterday’s discussion in this section on how sometimes in markets, very little means a whole lot.

Today was another one of those nothing days that definitely qualifies. In addition to the fact the long term trend ribbon flipped back to dark green / up, today’s miniscule candle range suggests demand held strong — even in the face of massive gains this week (i.e., demand doesn’t think prices are too high to buy) — while supply lacked motivation and, clearly, size (i.e., Holding On For Upside!).

The substantial gains of the week remain intact. ✅

Scroll up a bit and look at that intraday chart for the OTP. Mainstream media will tell us the Australian stock market was down today, but we know better!

There was never really any doubt — even that little flourish in the closing price auction = Capital B, capital T, and capital D… Spells BUY THE DIP! ✅

So, it’s all healthy “the demand-side is presently in control of the price right now” sort of stuff. Right now. Not necessarily in the next 5 minutes, 5 days, or 5 weeks. That’s not how good technical analysis works — it doesn’t try to predict because the future is unknown — rendering prediction futile!

As with the Comp, all I require here is a supply-side push vs demand-side test and hold. The demand-side appears strong now, and the supply-side napping, but if we get a flip back the other way for a day or two, which side responds with greater force?

Once I have confirmation the demand-side stands ready to repel supply-side fluctuations, I could happily grow my portfolio risk limit. Until then, comfortable at 1/2RP.

View

1/2RP 🪣 (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in Australian stocks is 50%).

Key levels

9201, the all time high, is the key point of supply. Below it there likely remains a degree of trepidation among market participants.

Demand now moves back to the dynamic short- and long-term trend ribbons (presently 8665-8742). A test and hold of that range would really confirm this newfound semblance of demand-side control. If the price closes back below this range, the supply-side is very likely back in control of the OTP's price.

Economy

Today

• CHN March Inflation Data

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): +1.0% p.a. vs +1.2% p.a. forecast and +1.3% p.a. in February

  • Producer Price Index (PPI): +0.5% p.a. vs +0.4% p.a. forecast and -0.9% p.a. in February

Later this week

Friday

• 22:30 USA Core CPI (+1.0% m/m forecast vs +0.3% m/m in February)

Saturday

• 00:00 USA Prelim April UoM Consumer Sentiment (51.6 forecast vs 53.3 in February)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +8.1% 4DMEDICAL (4DX) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.3% Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX) – FDA Accepts NDA for TLX101-Px (Pixclara), rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📈

• +5.4% Minerals 260 (MI6) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +4.2% AMP (AMP) – AMP 2026 AGM - Chair and CEO addresses.

• +4.1% Southern Cross Electrical Engineering (SXE) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +3.5% Core Lithium (CXO) – Receipt of Tranche 1 Convertible Note Funds, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +2.8% Boss Energy (BOE) – Becoming a substantial holder (The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation +5.5%), general strength across the broader Uranium sector today.

• +2.4% Liontown (LTR) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +2.0% Paladin Energy (PDN) – No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today.

Trading lower

• -9.5% (ARU) – No news.

• -8.3% Orora (ORA) – Continued negative response to 09-Apr FY26 Trading Update & impact of Middle East conflict, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -5.0% Bapcor (BAP) – No news, general weakness across the broader Consumer Discretionary sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.9% Accent Group (AX1) – No news, general weakness across the broader Consumer Discretionary sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, one of the most Featured (highest conviction) stocks in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.5% Elsight (ELS) – No news, general weakness across the broader Defence sector today.

• -4.0% Super Retail (SUL) – No news, general weakness across the broader Consumer Discretionary sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -3.9% Champion Iron (CIA) – No news, general weakness across the broader Iron Ore sector today.

• -3.8% BetaShares Global Cybersecurity ETF (HACK) – No news (long technology stocks ETF), general weakness across the broader Information Technology sector today.

• -3.4% Stanmore Resources (SMR) – No news, general weakness across the broader Energy sector today.

• -3.4% Nuix (NXL) – No news, general weakness across the broader Information Technology sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -3.3% Life360 (360) – No news, general weakness across the broader Information Technology sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -3.2% Whitehaven Coal (WHC) – Whitehaven secures US$600 million syndicated facility, general weakness across the broader Energy sector today.

• -3.0% Yancoal Australia (YAL) – No news, general weakness across the broader Energy sector today.

• -2.7% Xero (XRO) – No news, general weakness across the broader Information Technology sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -2.6% New Hope Corp. (NHC) – No news, general weakness across the broader Energy sector today.

• -2.6% Wisetech Global (WTC) – Change in substantial holding from MQG, general weakness across the broader Information Technology sector today, (Macquarie Group 5.2% from 6.5%), fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -2.3% Harvey Norman (HVN) – No news, general weakness across the broader Consumer Discretionary sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -2.3% Temple & Webster (TPW) – No news, general weakness across the broader Consumer Discretionary sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

Broker Moves

Ama Group (AMA)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.20 from $1.25

Airtasker (ART)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $0.20

ASX (ASX)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $56.80 from $55.50

• Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $61.00

• Retained at overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $59.00

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $58.85 from $58.40

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $10.95

Bellevue Gold (BGL)

• Retained at buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $2.60 from $2.40

• Retained at overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $2.05 from $1.80

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.10

Benz Mining Corp (BNZ)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $3.15

CAR Group (CAR)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $32.00

Catapult Sports (CAT)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $5.00

Cogstate (CGS)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.20 from $2.90

CSL (CSL)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $155.00 from $175.00

Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure (DBI)

• Initiated at buy at UBS; Price Target: $5.75

Deterra Royalties (DRR)

• Initiated at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $4.85

Emerald Resources NL (EMR)

• Upgraded to buy from hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $8.20 from $7.35

Evolution Mining (EVN)

• Upgraded to buy from hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $15.55 from $14.20

Greatland Resources (GGP)

• Retained at buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $17.30 from $15.45

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $16.00

• Downgraded to neutral from outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $15.00 from $13.50

• Retained at sell at Moelis Australia; Price Target: $10.10

Gemlife Communities Group (GLF)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.25 from $6.10

Goodman Group (GMG)

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $29.15

Guzman Y Gomez (GYG)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $26.70 from $24.00

hipages Group Holdings (HPG)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $0.78

Hansen Technologies (HSN)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.00

HUB24 (HUB)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $104.70

Infratil (IFT)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $12.34

Ingenia Communities Group (INA)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.00 from $6.10

Kelsian Group (KLS)

• Initiated at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $4.70

Lifestyle Communities (LIC)

• Downgraded to neutral from buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.10 from $5.60

Liontown (LTR)

• Upgraded to neutral from sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $1.75 from $1.45

Magellan Financial Group (MFG)

• Downgraded to underweight from neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $8.50

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.50 from $8.65

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $11.99 from $12.43

Mirvac Group (MGR)

• Downgraded to neutral from buy at Citi; Price Target: $1.84 from $2.50

Megaport (MP1)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $9.00

Many Peaks Minerals (MPK)

• Initiated at speculative buy at Morgans; Price Target: $1.92

Metallium (MTM)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.60

Netwealth Group (NWL)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $27.00

Nuix (NXL)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.50

NEXTDC (NXT)

• Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $16.60 from $18.70

• Retained at overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $18.00

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $20.80

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $22.00

Orora (ORA)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $2.30

Pro Medicus (PME)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $200.00

PEXA Group (PXA)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $15.50

QBE Insurance Group (QBE)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $25.65

REA Group (REA)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $230.00

ResMed Inc. (RMD)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $50.00

Regis Resources (RRL)

• Retained at hold at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $7.80 from $7.50

• Upgraded to buy from hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $8.85 from $8.15

• Retained at neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $7.00

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.70

SEEK (SEK)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $21.00

Sandfire Resources (SFR)

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $21.00

Stockland (SGP)

• Downgraded to neutral from buy at Citi; Price Target: $4.30 from $6.40

Technology One (TNE)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $32.00

Tyro Payments (TYR)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $0.70

Vault Minerals (VAU)

• Upgraded to buy from neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $6.30 from $6.60

West African Resources (WAF)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $6.70

Wisetech Global (WTC)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $70.00

Xero (XRO)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $130.00

Zip Co (ZIP)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $2.85 from $4.50

Scans