Morning Wrap: ASX 200 futures flat, S&P 500 records seventh straight win, Software stocks tumble

ASX 200 futures are down 8 pts (-0.08%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• US indices broadly higher, with the S&P 500 recording its seventh straight day of gains and the Dow returning to positive YTD territory

• Every S&P 500 sector except for Energy and Healthcare finished higher

• Software was a key underperformer, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF down 3.9% and broke below recent lows to trade at the lowest since Nov-23

• Recent Anthropic updates around Claude Cowork and its new Mythos model are the likely suspects behind renewed pressure for software names

• Only one oil products tanker has crossed the Strait of Hormuz since the ceasefire announcement, while Israel continues to "strike Hezbollah with force"

Let's dive in.

Overnight Summary

Fri 10 Apr 26, 8:23am (AEST)

Name	Value	% Chg
Major Indices
S&P 500	6,825	+0.62%
Dow Jones	48,186	+0.58%
NASDAQ Comp	22,822	+0.83%
Russell 2000	2,636	+0.60%
Country Indices
Canada	33,478	-0.42%
China	3,966	-0.72%
Germany	23,807	-1.14%
Hong Kong	25,752	-0.54%
India	76,632	-1.20%
Japan	55,895	-0.73%
United Kingdom	10,603	-0.05%

Name	Value	% Chg
Commodities (USD)
Gold	4,768.63	+1.01%
Copper	5.74	-0.32%
WTI Oil	97.93	+3.83%
Currency
AUD/USD	0.7085	+0.02%
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin (USD)	72,403	+1.36%
Ethereum (AUD)	3,125	+0.10%
Miscellaneous
US 10 Yr T-bond	4.293	+0.05%
VIX	19.49	-7.37%

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 opened flattish, trended higher to close near best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks higher and closed near best levels 

• S&P 500 recorded its seventh straight gain, the largest win streak since Oct-25 and now trading within 2% of all-time highs

• A selloff in software stocks was the key underperformer on the day after Anthropic’s Claude Cowork announcement and new Mythos model

• iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF fell 3.9%, undercutting recent Feb-Mar lows to close at the lowest since Nov-23

• Goldman’s Oppenheimer says Mag-7's underperformance in 2026 has created attractive valuation opportunities, with hyperscalers' valuation premium now "close to the same as the rest of the market" (YF)

• BlackRock CIO Helen Jewell warned earnings expectations will need to be tempered due to Iran war inflation fallout, noting full-year consensus forecasts in the "15-18% range" leave significant room for downward revision as the reporting season begins (BBG)

• The Dow's YTD returns turned positive, now tracking a 0.2% gain since the start of January, reversing what had been persistent negative territory for the blue-chip benchmark amid the Iran war disruption (YF)

• Private credit facing US$330bn wall of debt maturities linked to software (BBG)

ENERGY

• Saudi official says recent attacks on oil infrastructure has disrupted 700,000 bpd in throughput (AN)

• Only one oil products tanker has sailed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours (TI)

• Iran Supreme Leader says Tehran will take management of Hormuz into new phase (IT)

IRAN

• Trump says he is "very optimistic" a peace deal can be reached with Iran (NBC)

• Iran accused the US and Israel of violating the two-week ceasefire, citing continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Iranian media reported Tehran was suspending tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and considering withdrawing from the deal (CBS)

• Netanyahu says Israel will hold direct talks with Lebanon but says “there is no ceasefire” and they will “continue to strike Hezbollah with force” (BBC)

STOCKS

• Meta commits an additional $21bn to CoreWeave for AI cloud capacity from 2027 to 2032, on top of a prior $14.2bn arrangement(CNBC)

• CoreWeave is selling $1.75bn of high-yield notes maturing in 2031, upsized from an initial $1.25bn, plus a separate $3bn of convertible debt due 2031, following the expanded Meta deal (BBG)

• Goldman Sachs upgraded its view on Microsoft, maintaining a Buy rating with a $600 price target, saying the pace of Microsoft 365 deceleration has slowed and Copilot adoption is improving. Microsoft remains the worst-performing Mag-7 stock in 2026 (CNBC)

TARIFFS & TRADE

• Trump threatened a 50% tariff on any country that supplies Iran with military weapons, announcing the measure via Truth Social. The White House noted the move is intended to ensure Iran's compliance with ceasefire terms (CFR)

• Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent crude will average above US$100 per barrel through 2026 if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for another month, with analysts flagging the "situation remains fluid" and risks skewed to the upside (YF)

CENTRAL BANKS

• CME FedWatch shows 98.4% of market participants expect the Fed to hold rates at its April 29 meeting, with virtually no chance of a cut priced for 2026 amid energy-driven inflation concerns (MS)

ECONOMY

• March US CPI data is due tonight. Consensus forecasts headline CPI rising 0.9% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year, driven by an estimated 10.6% surge in energy prices (MS)

• February PCE rose 2.8% year-on-year vs. 2.6% consensus, Core PCE was 3.0% year-on-year, in line with ests, and the lowest level since November 2025 (MS)

• IMF plans to downgrade its global growth forecast next week, warning "even our most hopeful scenario involves a growth downgrade." The IMF's January forecast had pegged global growth at 3.3% for 2026 and the fund had been poised to upgrade it before the war (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• Monadelphous awarded new construction and maintenance contracts and extensions with Rio Tinto, BHP, Queensland Alumina and Harmony Gold valued at ~$145m in aggregate (MND)

• Bravura Solutions Chairman Russell Baskerville discloses purchase of ~25,000 shares, owns ~65,000 shares after the transaction (BVS)

• Novonix Riverside Project certified of $103m in tax credits by US government, credits can be sold to a third party (NVX)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Tech: Local tech (which is mostly software anyway) is on the backfoot again. US-listed peers like Salesforce (-2.8%), Shopify (-6.4%), Intuit (-6.8%) and Adobe (-3.9%) continue to face heavy selling pressure amid renewed AI concerns. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF undercut recent lows, and while the ASX 200 Tech Index is still trading around ~6.5% from its 30-Mar low.

BROKER MOVES

• Alcoa upgraded to Overweight from Equal-weight; target up to $80 from $64 (Morgan Stanley)

• Liontown upgraded to Neutral from Sell; target up to $1.75 from $1.45 (Goldman Sachs)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Fri 10 Apr: Dominion Income Trust 1 (DN1) – $0.642

• Mon 13 Apr: Sandon Capital Investments (SNC) – $0.005, WAM Global (WGB) – $0.066

• Tue 14 Apr: Turners Automotive Group (TRA) – $0.074, WAM Alternative Assets (WMA) – $0.03

• Wed 15 Apr: Cadence Capital (CDM) – $0.03, Cadence Opportunities Fund (CDO) – $0.075, Clover Corporation (CLV) – $0.01, WAM Leaders (WLE) – $0.048

• Thu 16 Apr: Acorn Capital Investment Fund (ACQ) – $0.035, WAM Income Maximiser (WMX) – $0.006

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: Austin Engineering (ANG), Civmec (CVL), Embelton (EMB), Enero Group (EGG), Finbar Group (FRI), Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN), Macmahon Holdings (MAH), Monash IVF Group (MVF), Service Stream (SSM), Spark New Zealand (SPK), SRG Global (SRG), Tasmea (TEA), Tourism Holdings (THL), Vita Life Sciences (VLS), Wiseway Group (WWG), WOTSO (WOT), WiseTech Global (WTC)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: AMP (AMP), GPT Group (GPT), Magellan Financial Group (MFG)

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 11:30 pm: China CPI

• 10:30 pm: US CPI