Evening Wrap: ASX 200 edges higher despite first RBA hike in 2-years, NEU and CCP tumble over 10% on updates

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 78.5 points higher, up +0.89%.

The ASX 200 start strong, but cooled from its peak after the Reserve Bank of Australia delivered its first interest rate hike in more than two years, lifting its cash rate 25 bps to 3.85%.

The RBA said the hike reflected inflation reaccelerating in the second half of 2025, and signaled that future decisions will be dependent on inflation, employment, and global demand conditions.

The Gold Sub-Index (XGD) (+2.0%) bounced, that is, if you can call +2% vs -12.7% during the prior two sessions a "bounce"! Still, there were some notable bona fide rebounds, namely Newmont Corporation (NEM) (5.6%) and Evolution Mining (EVN) (+4.2%).

Elsewhere, Information Technology (XIJ) (+1.8%) also "bounced" (i.e., small rally today compared to their hiding over the last 6-months), as did Resources (XJR) (+1.4%) — on that gold rebound — but also on the back of strong performances in majors South32 (S32) (+2.0%), Rio Tinto (RIO) (+1.9%), and Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) (+3.3%).

In company news, Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU) (-10.2%) tumbled after its licensee Acadia Pharmaceuticals was informed by the European Medicines Agency of a negative trend vote on its Rett syndrome drug trofinetide.

Also falling foul of investor expectations, debt collector Credit Corp Group (CCP) (-15.9%) plunged despite reiterating guidance for full year profit growth of 6–17%. The share price response suggests investors were wanting more, but also, today's rate hike likely didn't help.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

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Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 78.5 points higher at 8,857.1, 0.89% from its session low and 0.45% from its session high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers beat decliners by a healthy 172 to 105.

Fund flows: Not bad considering... ⚖️

Up on a rake hike day? 🤔

Not too shabby!

Sure, that rate hike was perhaps the most widely expected since the last one (!!!), but I’m looking at some decent market breadth, and gains in 10 of the 11 major sectors…

Not too shabby!

Gold and silver… We must talk about those… Right?

Credible rebound in some… severely lacking in others. If you’re wondering which are which, copy and paste these tickers into a TradingView watchlist and note which ones closed near their session highs and which have long upward-pointing shadows, respectively:

Gold Watchlist (Top 30-odd, sorted by Market Capitalisation)

ASX:NST, ASX:EVN, ASX:NEM, ASX:RMS, ASX:GMD, ASX:PRU, ASX:WGX, ASX:CMM, ASX:RRL, ASX:VAU, ASX:EMR, ASX:WAF, ASX:RSG, ASX:BGL, ASX:OBM, ASX:PDI, ASX:ALK, ASX:CYL, ASX:PNR, ASX:KCN, ASX:FFM, ASX:SX2, ASX:FML, ASX:BC8, ASX:SMI, ASX:SBM, ASX:RXL, ASX:TCG, ASX:NMG, ASX:MEK

Silver Watchlist (Those I’m aware of, sorted by Market Capitalisation)

ASX:S32, ASX:SFR, ASX:KCN, ASX:AIS, ASX:AMI, ASX:USL, ASX:SVL, ASX:ASL, ASX:POL, ASX:BML, ASX:SS1, ASX:IVR, ASX:MTH, ASX:ARD

The sector chart perhaps tells the story best: so far, it’s looking more dead-cat bounce 🙀 than confident and emphatic: buy the dip battle cry! 📢💪

S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold SubInd Index chart

Tech was better today. Better, but hardly good… either. It's still way too early for me (as a trend follower) here...

S&P/ASX 200 Information Technology Sector Index chart

What about the stuff that’s really important for the ASX 200, aka the Old Tin Pot to really get cranking: Banks and Resources? 🤔

Banks are still the critical swing factor for me, with Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) (+1.1%) the key to the sector — and likely, the whole index. I’m presently working on a whizz-bang reporting season calendar (will drop it on-site tomorrow), but for now, note 11-Feb is the big day for CBA. You know my running opinion on it based on the chart below…

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) chart

Resources feels less damaged than Gold — and to be fair, much of the dip at the end of the chart below is because of the impact of the XGD. I suggest that BHP Group (BHP) (+1.4%), Rio Tinto (RIO) (+1.9%), and South32 (S32) (+2.0%) trends still look largely intact, with 17-Feb, 19-Feb, and 12-Feb the key dates to watch for them.

S&P/ASX 200 Resources Index chart

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

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ChartWatch

Nasdaq Composite Index

Analysis

Never doubt an uptrend in a bull market… Right? 🤔

Still, as welcome as Monday’s white-bodied candle is — it was far from a convincing and emphatic show of demand-side control: modest in size, failing to recoup Friday’s loss, modest upward pointing shadow.

Average volume… Not exactly a flooding back in of demand, nor a clearing the decks of latent supply.

But! It is a step in the right direction for steading the short term uptrend ship. ✅

Ideally, we see a follow through demand-side candle tonight… one that does achieve a close back in the 23722-24020 supply zone, and that does challenge Thursday’s candle’s high. Above average volume, indicating greater demand-side interest plus supply removal, would be a bonus.

No change to the small or big picture here. Restating: A better result than perhaps predicted on a MOTN basis by Monday’s candle… but still plenty of work to do to convince us there’s enough market confidence to drag the Comp back into record territory. 🤞

View

Yesterday, I said: I am on hold for the addition of new long-side portfolio risk, but officially, remain at my 2/3RP portfolio risk limit 🪣. I think this is still prudent until we get at least one more demand-side confirmation candle. (RP = Risk Position — it reflects my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in US stocks. So 1/2RP is 50%, 2/3RP is 67% and FRP is 100%). A close below 22692 would trigger a move to 1/2RP.

Key levels

The next zone of demand is 22692-916. If the Comp closes below that zone, we can assume the supply side is in control. On a close below 21898 the long term uptrend is likely under significant pressure = ⚠️. 23722-24020 is the nearest critical zone of supply — the Comp must close within/above this zone with a strong demand-side candle to confirm the demand-side is unequivocally back in control of the Comp's price.

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Analysis

Was the Old Tin Pot “oversold” after Friday-Monday’s pullback?

No idea. The concept of “overbought” and “oversold” have always been ambiguous concepts as far as I’m concerned!

It could be as simple as: risk appetite shifted (as in, forced selling from gold-silver wipe out petered out, US stocks did what they’re prone to doing in a bull market = went up) and we saw some demand return + supply back off = P ⬆️

Not an unsurprising thing to happen in markets… D > S = P ⬆️!

But, given the signal of the last two candles, I would put today’s strong performance in the LOTN camp (Less Often Than Not!).

8765 is holding (it snuck a “hold” yesterday, too). Perhaps one could even argue that the short term uptrend ribbon has belatedly come into play…

The long term uptrend remains intact, and the dynamic excess demand we’d usually associate with its ribbon could also be pinned to today’s rally… My point is that today’s candle is neither a surprise nor a convincing signal that the short term uptrend is “back on” again.

On that last item, consider today’s not-insignificant upward pointing shadow. Sure, we saw some “buy the dip off” yesterday’s lows…✅ But we also saw some credible “sell the rally” around today’s highs… ⚠️

Net-net, let me propose that today's price action and average volume combo is a welcome step in the right direction, but let’s get at least one confirmatory signal before we get too excited. Preferably one that undoes the vast majority of the damage inflicted during the Monday-Friday slide.

Steady as she goes here as well… ⛵

View

Yesterday I said: I will suspend adding all new long-side risk exposure and let my portfolio risk reduce by “natural attrition” to 1/2RP 🪣. Given today's performance, it's clear there's still no major need to make any rash decisions about a portfolio risk either way. "Alert, not alarmed"! Mindful of the risks, but also not wanting to be caught with insufficient risk if prices recover. Somewhere between the present 2/3RP and the eventual target 1/2RP is likely the right balance.

Key levels

The long term trend ribbon is the closest zone of (dynamic) demand (presently 8605-8710). 8675 remains the closest static point of demand. A close below the long term uptrend ribbon would neutralise the present long term uptrend. 8979 is the next key zone of supply.

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Economy

Today

• 11:30 AUS January Building Approvals

  • Result: -14.9% m/m and -6.4% m/m forecast and +15.2% m/m in December

• 14:30 AUS February RBA Meeting

  • Cash Rate: +0.25% to 3.85% p.a. as forecast

  • Commentary: As widely expected. Not ideal for mortgage holders, but clearly didn't rock the boat substantially for share holders.

Later this week

Wednesday

• 02:00 USA January JOLTS Job Openings (7.21 million vs 7.15 million in December)

Thursday

• 11:30 AUS February Goods Trade Balance (+3.45 billion m/m forecast and +2.94 billion m/m in January)

• Tentative AUS February NAB Quarterly Business Confidence

Friday

• 9:30 AUS RBA Gov Bullock Speaks

Saturday

• 12:30 USA January Non-farm Payrolls

  • Employment Change: +67,000 forecast vs +50,000 in December

  • Unemployment Rate: +4.4% forecast vs 4.4% in December

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Latest News

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Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +67.0% Solstice Minerals (SLS) – Outstanding High-Grade Cu-Au Intercepts at Nanadie, general strength across the broader Gold sector today.

• +28.4% Qoria (QOR) – ASX Announcement - Merger of Aura and Qoria -2 February 2026.

• +21.5% Terra Metals (TM1) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +18.5% Marmota (MEU) – No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today.

• +17.4% Lumos Diagnostics Holdings (LDX) – Q2 FY26 Results Investor Presentation.

• +15.3% 4DMEDICAL (4DX) – No news, rebounded after recent sharp selloff.

• +14.7% Sunshine Metals (SHN) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +14.6% Boab Metals (BML) – No news, general strength across the broader Silver sector today.

• +13.4% Appen (APX) – No news, general strength across the broader Information Technology sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +12.5% Calix (CXL) – Continued positive response to 02-Feb Response to ASX Price Query, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• +10.9% Southern Palladium (SPD) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +8.3% African Gold (A1G) – Becoming a substantial holder (Weiss Asset Management +5.04%)), general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +8.0% BetaShares Global Gold Miners Currency Hedged ETF (MNRS) – No news, general strength across the broader Resources sector today.

• +7.8% Droneshield (DRO) – No news, rebounded after recent sharp selloff.

• +6.8% Wildcat Resources (WC8) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today.

• +6.6% VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) – No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today.

• +6.5% Core Lithium (CXO) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today.

• +6.5% Ioneer (INR) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today.

• +6.4% Delta Lithium (DLI) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today.

• +5.6% Newmont Corp. (NEM) – No news, upgraded to buy from accumulate at Morgans and price target raised to $190.00 from $162.00, general strength across the broader Gold sector today.

• +5.1% Capstone Copper Corp. (CSC) – No news, general strength across the broader Copper sector today.

• +5.1% Argosy Minerals (AGY) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today.

Trading lower

• -16.7% (CCP) – Credit Corp Group H1 of 2026 Results Presentation.

• -12.5% Aura Energy (AEE) – Aura Energy Successfully Raises A$20 million via Placement.

• -12.3% Kelly Partners Group Holdings (KPG) – No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -10.0% Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU) – Acadia provides update on EU regulatory submission.

• -3.6% Graincorp Class A (GNC) – Continued negative response to 02-Feb GrainCorp provides FY26 earnings guidance, downgraded to neutral from outperform at Macquarie and price target cut to $6.60 from $8.30, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -2.6% Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX) – Chair Resignation, Dr Mark Nelson appointed Interim Chair, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -2.5% Ebos Group (EBO) – No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

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Broker Moves

4DMedical (4DX)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.50 from $2.50

AIC Mines (A1M)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.80

Amplitude Energy (AEL)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $3.60

Arena REIT (ARF)

• Upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS; Price Target: $4.05 from $4.06

ASX (ASX)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $46.65 from $45.15

Aurizon Holdings (AZJ)

• Downgraded to hold from buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $3.74

Beforepay Group (B4P)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $3.00

Beach Energy (BPT)

• Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $1.22

Bathurst Resources (BRL)

• Retained at speculative buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.92 from $0.90

Bubs Australia (BUB)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.17 from $0.20

Charter Hall Group (CHC)

• Upgraded to buy from sell at UBS; Price Target: $26.50 from $19.93

Charter Hall Long Wale REIT (CLW)

• Downgraded to sell from neutral at UBS; Price Target: $3.75 from $4.55

Centuria Capital Group (CNI)

• Upgraded to neutral from sell at UBS; Price Target: $2.03 from $2.10

Centuria Office REIT (COF)

• Upgraded to neutral from sell at UBS; Price Target: $1.03 from $1.20

Coles Group (COL)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $25.00

CSL (CSL)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $195.00

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $225.00

Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $3.15

Dexus (DXS)

• Downgraded to neutral from buy at UBS; Price Target: $7.34 from $8.60

Elevra Lithium (ELV)

• Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.60 from $8.50

Evolution Mining (EVN)

• Upgraded to hold from trim at Morgans; Price Target: $14.30 from $13.20

Global Lithium Resources (GL1)

• Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.65

Graincorp (GNC)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $6.80 from $7.60

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $7.51 from $8.71

• Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $8.40 from $8.90

• Downgraded to neutral from outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.60 from $8.30

• Retained at accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $6.76 from $9.05

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $8.60 from $9.35

GPT Group (GPT)

• Upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS; Price Target: $6.00 from $5.55

Helloworld Travel (HLO)

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.90 from $1.93

Image Resources NL (IMA)

• Retained at overweight at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.10 from $0.13

Ingenia Communities Group (INA)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $5.00 from $6.24

IPH (IPH)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.04

James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $37.00 from $30.50

Karoon Energy (KAR)

• Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $1.70

Liontown (LTR)

• Upgraded to neutral from underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.70

Meteoric Resources NL (MEI)

• Retained at speculative buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.40 from $0.35

Mineral Resources (MIN)

• Upgraded to accumulate from hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $65.00 from $64.00

Medical Developments International (MVP)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.84 from $0.85

Newmont Corporation (NEM)

• Upgraded to buy from accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $190.00 from $162.00

Nickel Industries (NIC)

• Retained at overweight at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.00 from $0.80

Northern Star Resources (NST)

• Upgraded to buy from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $33.00 from $26.00

Origin Energy (ORG)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $14.00

Proteomics International Laboratories (PIQ)

• Downgraded to trim from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $0.43

PLS Group (PLS)

• Upgraded to hold from trim at Morgans; Price Target: $4.60

Pantoro Gold (PNR)

• Upgraded to buy from trim at Morgans; Price Target: $6.04 from $5.00

Reece (REH)

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $13.00 from $11.50

Rural Funds Group (RFF)

• Downgraded to neutral from buy at UBS; Price Target: $2.11 from $2.10

Region Group (RGN)

• Downgraded to sell from neutral at UBS; Price Target: $2.15 from $2.40

Ramelius Resources (RMS)

• Upgraded to buy from accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $5.76 from $5.50

Regis Resources (RRL)

• Upgraded to buy from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $9.13 from $8.05

Reliance Worldwide Corporation (RWC)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $4.15 from $4.35

SGH (SGH)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $51.80 from $52.00

Superloop (SLC)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.75

Santos (STO)

• Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $6.60

Strike Energy (STX)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.15

Vicinity Centres (VCX)

• Upgraded to buy from sell at UBS; Price Target: $2.80 from $2.42

Woodside Energy Group (WDS)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $29.80 from $30.60

Woolworths Group (WOW)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $30.75 from $29.00

Wisr (WZR)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.07

Xero (XRO)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $210.00

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $230.30

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Scans