Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to bounce, S&P 500 rallies towards record highs, Gold volatility continues

ASX 200 futures are up 77 pts (+0.88%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks opened mostly lower, spent most of the day trending higher to close near best levels

• Commodity market volatility continues, with gold currently down ~4.5% but fell as much as 10% (US$4,400) intraday

• Despite commodity price volatility, gold and copper stocks finished relatively flat overnight

• Credit Corp due to report 1H26 earnings this morning

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 higher, closed near best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks higher, finished a little off best levels

• Commodity volatility continues, with gold currently down 4.5% vs. intraday low of -10.0% and silver down 6.5% vs. intraday low of -16.3%

• Oil prices plunge 4-5%, marking biggest loss since June as Iran risks ease and commodities selloff deepens (BBG)

• Gold now more volatile than Bitcoin as commodities face extreme swings after blistering rally (BBG)

• Japan PM Takaichi clarifies remarks on weak yen (BBG) 

• OPEC+ confirms March output freeze, extending Saudi-Russian led supply restraint (BBG)

STOCKS

• Oracle plans to raise $45-50bn via debt and equity to fund massive AI cloud buildout (BBG)

• Snowflake announced a $200m partnership with OpenAI to integrate AI models directly into its cloud data platform (RT)

• OpenAI launches standalone Codex app for Apple computers in bid to gain ground in AI coding race (CNBC)

• Porsche mulls cutting EV sports cars in effort to rein in budget (YF)

• Nvidia's Huang urges TSMC to lift capacity to meet AI chip demand (SCMP)

• European oil majors set to lower dividend payouts amid lower oil prices (FT )

TARIFFS/TRADE

• Trump set to launch a strategic critical-minerals stockpile with $12bn in seed money, venture dubbed Project Vault to focus on minerals such as rare earths, gallium and cobalt (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Warsh pick revives debate over Fed balance sheet shrinkage (BBG)

• Hassett urges Fed to shrink its balance sheet as much as possible (BBG)

• Trump jokes about suing Fed nominee Warsh over rates, denies extracting policy commitments (CNN)

• Fed's Bostic reiterates view that Fed should not cut rates at all this year (RT)

• BoJ meeting minutes signal increasing consensus to hike rates amid weak-yen inflationary risks (BBG)

• BoE likely to hold rates at 3.75% amid mixed growth and job signals (BBG)

• RBA set for U-turn rate hike, an increasingly divergent path vs. the Fed and emerging Asian economies (BBG)

GEOPOLITICS

• US and Iran to meet in Istanbul later this week amid American military buildup in the Persian Gulf (AX)

• Polls show strong public support for PM Takaichi ahead of election, boosting ruling party's prospects (BBG)

ECONOMY

• US January Manufacturing PMI prints 52.6 vs. 48.9 consensus, now at the highest since August 2022 (BBG)

• China factory PMI unexpectedly weakens, signaling fragile economic momentum (BBG)

• China January new home prices rise, drop in resale homes narrow, private survey shows (RT)

• UK manufacturing PMI hits 17‑month high of 51.8, marking third consecutive expansion month (BBG)

• BLS says January nonfarm payrolls and December JOLTS reports will be delayed due to latest partial government shutdown (CNBC)

ASX TODAY

• Aura Energy receives firm commitments for $20m placement at 20.5 cents per share, a 14.5% discount to last close (AEE)

• Carma reports 249 retail units delivered in January for $7.1m revenue, total of 746 delivered in the three months to January, representing a 37% year-on-year increase (CMA)

• Credit Corp reports 1H26 NPAT in-line with prior year at $44.1m but below $48.9m ests (9.8% miss), interim dividend of 32 cps also short of Macquarie ests of 35 cps, reaffirms FY26 guidance of $100-110m NPAT (CCP)

• Qoria confirms proposed all-stock merger with Aura, valuing the company at 72 cents per share, shareholders to receive 1 Aura CDI for every 17.2 shares on Qoria (QOR)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Resource stability: Another volatile overnight session for commodities, with gold, nickel, aluminium and copper down 2-4%, though well-off session lows. Despite further downside, starting to see some stability in resource-related equities. A flattish close for a handful of overnight ETFs including Copper Miners (+0.4%), Gold Miners (-0.01%) and Strategic Metals (-0.9%). While gold miners struggled for upside during gold's spike to US$5,500, they're also hold up well amid this sharp pullback.

BROKER MOVES

• Elevra Lithium upgraded to Outperform from Neutral; target remains $8.50 (MQG)

• Global Lithium upgraded to Outperform from Neutral; target remains $0.65

• GrainCorp downgraded to Neutral from Outperform; target cut to $6.60 from $8.30 (MQG)

• Liontown upgraded to Neutral from Underperform; target remains $1.70 (MQG)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Tue 3 Feb: None

• Wed 4 Feb: Qualitas Real Estate Income Fund (QRI) – $0.01

• Thu 5 Feb: None

• Fri 6 Feb: None

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: None

• Earnings: Credit Corp (CCP)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 2:30 pm: RBA Interest Rate Decision (Ests: 25 bp hike to 3.85%)