Evening Wrap: ASX 200 climbs on BHP, RIO base metals bonanza, uranium stocks surge on US nuclear energy expansion

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 61.3 points higher, up 0.70%.

The ASX 200 rebounded after softer-than-expected GDP data all but removed a June RBA rate hike from the table. We saw another sharp sector rotation — resources and banks advanced while technology gave back some of yesterday's sharp gains. Uranium stocks were the session's standout as a major US enrichment plant announced a multi-billion dollar capacity expansion.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap. Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 61.3 points higher at 8,785.7, 0.7% from its session low and 0.3% from its high. Despite the seemingly robust performance at benchmark level, disturbingly, in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers lagged decliners by 125 to 155. Banks rallied, major mining stocks rallied... there's your +0.7%! 🤦

Energy (XEJ) (+1.6%) was the best sector as oil and gas and coal stocks recovered recent lost ground. Viva Energy (VEA) (+4.7%) and Ampol (ALD) (+3.4%) led the oil-exposed names, with New Hope Corp. (NHC) (+3.1%), Whitehaven Coal (WHC) (+2.8%), and Yancoal Australia (YAL) (+2.5%) rounding out the coal cohort.

Uranium stocks roared back to life after Urenco USA — America's only commercial uranium enrichment facility — announced plans to expand its New Mexico enrichment plant by 2.1 million separative work units, lifting total capacity from 4.3 million SWU to 6.4 million SWU annually.

The US-listed Global X Uranium ETF surged 5.7% on the news, and local producers followed. Paladin Energy (PDN) (+11.5%), NexGen Energy (NXG) (+9.4%), Bannerman Energy (BMN) (+8.0%), Deep Yellow (DYL) (+7.9%), Silex Systems (SLX) (+7.7%), and Boss Energy (BOE) (+7.6%) all surged.

Materials (XMJ) (+1.5%) was driven by copper continuing its multi-week advance, with the London Metals Exchange price approaching US$14,000 per tonne as AI infrastructure demand and supply constraints kept the metal well supported. BHP (BHP) (+2.4%) closed at a fresh all-time high for the second consecutive session, with Rio Tinto (RIO) (+1.6%) just below its own record. Base metals specialists were also strong — Alcoa (AAI) (+6.0%), BlueScope Steel (BSL) (+4.9%), and Sims (SGM) (+4.6%) all advanced.

Consumer Staples (XSJ) (+1.1%) was a notable winner alongside resources — softer GDP data reduced rate expectations, improving the relative attractiveness of dividend-paying blue chips. Woolworths (WOW) (+2.0%) and Coles (COL) (+1.1%) both advanced as the supermarket majors found buyers following recent selling pressure, with Ricegrowers (SGLLV) (+3.8%) also firmer.

Financials (XFJ) (+0.8%) recovered for the same reason — lower rate expectations reduce credit quality concerns and lift the relative appeal of high-dividend financial stocks. All four major banks gained at least 0.6%, with ANZ (ANZ) (+1.9%) the standout, followed by Commonwealth Bank (CBA) (+1.1%), Westpac (WBC) (+0.7%), and National Australia Bank (NAB) (+0.6%).

ASX 200 Financials sector index (XFJ) chart — that's where you rally was!

Information Technology (XIJ) (-0.8%) pulled back from yesterday's high-single-digit gains across many constituents — a natural cooling-off after the sector's best session in months. Catapult Sports (CAT) (-6.6%), Bravura Solutions (BVS) (-4.4%), Xero (XRO) (-3.5%), and WiseTech Global (WTC) (-2.1%) all gave back ground. Megaport (MP1) remained in a trading halt after announcing an $827.3 million rights issue alongside four new AI infrastructure contracts totalling approximately $458.9 million.

Communication Services (XTJ) (-0.4%) followed technology's weak lead — several online classified names that had surged yesterday reversed modestly. OOH!Media (OML) (-8.1%) was the sector's sharpest faller. Nine Entertainment (NEC) (-1.1%) and Telstra (TLS) (-0.8%) were also lower.

Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (-0.5%) continued to suffer in the wake of yesterday's Fair Work wage decision, compounded today by a Macquarie research note downgrading Inghams (ING) (-3.6%) and Harvey Norman (HVN) (-2.2%) and describing the backdrop for the Australian consumer as having "weakened materially." Lovisa (LOV) (-7.0%), Temple & Webster (TPW) (-4.9%), Bapcor (BAP) (-4.5%), and JB Hi-Fi (JBH) (-3.0%) were all lower.

Health Care (XHJ) (-0.3%) again underperformed — the ASX's worst-performing major sector over the past 12 months extended its run. Cochlear (COH) (-1.7%) and ResMed (RMD) (-0.7%) were both softer.

Today's best ASX Top 300 gainers

Today's worst ASX Top 300 losers

ChartWatch

Nasdaq Composite Index

Insert source: MarketWatch.com 3 June, 2026

Analysis

Another record close. Another doom and gloom headline from the mainstream financial media. How predictable... And how tedious! 🤦

How many times over the last +6,000 points on the Comp have you seen headlines like the one from MarketWatch (no relation to ChartWatch! 😉) in the chart above?

How many times over that very same increase have you seen a headline that simply read:

Demand is greater than supply, prices are rising, follow the trend

Apart from right here, that is!

Anyways. Time to do some Analysis. Well, um, demand is greater than supply, prices are rising, follow the trend.

(Okay, but there is a caveat: the present uptrend won't last forever. At some point we'll see the typical fingerprints of supply creep in!

• Long supply side candles (i.e., those with long black bodies and or long upward pointing shadows)

• Lower peaks and lower troughs (supply reinforcement and demand removal respectively)

• Close below the short term uptrend ribbon, short term trend ribbon starts to act as a zone of excess supply (i.e., it impedes upward price action).

Until we see more of this stuff than the current run of white candles, rising peaks and rising troughs, and impeccable short and long term trends... there can be only one conclusion: P ⬆️ MOTN!)

View

FRP (RP = Risk Position — it reflects my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in US stocks. So 1/2RP is 50%, 2/3RP is 67% and FRP is 100% 🪣).

Key levels

26708 is the closest point of demand, then there's the short term uptrend ribbon (presently 25620-26196). If the price closes back below this range, the supply-side is very likely back in control of the Comp's price.

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Analysis

Exactly a week ago, in this very section, I said stuff like:

But there’s something about today’s session that I like... This could be it: the beginning of the OTP’s great resurgence! 🚀

The next day the OTP tanked... 😭

I want to say the same thing about today's candle — but I better not! 🤫

Can I just refer you to my writing yesterday about a naggingly persistent demand side... Patiently, diligently, hoovering up stock at lower prices?

You can do your own analysis on today's demand side candle, and the fact that the OTP managed to drag itself back above the trend ribbons. ✅✅

8888 is next, then probably stiffer resistance at 8987-9022 — but today's candle is a nice step in the right direction.

Still, no change to my portfolio risk settings yet, but I am far more confident now to make the most of all the risk available to me. Let me see the next few candles... It wouldn't take much for me to move back to 1/2RP.

View

I remain 1/3RP 🪣 on the OTP (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in Australian stocks is 33%).

Key levels

The short- and long-term downtrend ribbons (presently 8684-8705) combine to represent the key zone of supply. Beyond that, it's the not so lucky 8888 level! Demand is the 8262-8379 zone. Below that... 😱!

(Glossary of acronyms! Old Tin Pot (OTP): S&P/ASX 200 | MOTN: More Often Than Not | FOMO: Fear Of Missing Out | HOFU: Holding On For Upside | BTD: Buy The Dip | STR: Sell The Rally | RP: Risk Position)

***NEW VIDEO DROPPED 📺***

PME, TNE, WTC, XRO, is it finally time to buy ASX tech stocks? Plus, base metals prices are soaring while lithium is teetering ⚠️

Economy

Today

• AUS March Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

  • +0.3% q/q vs +0.5% q/q forecast and +0.8% q/q in December

  • +2.5% p.a., unchanged vs the December quarter

  • Reader: GDP data is ancient history when it hits... and this particular datapoint won't move the dial materially for the RBA. Most economists today still think August remains a very warm meeting for a final +0.25% rate hike.

Later this week

Wednesday

• 22:00 USA May ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) (53.7 forecast vs 53.6 in April)

Thursday

• 13:00 AUS Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michelle Bullock speaks

Friday

• 20:30 USA May Non-Farm Payrolls

  • Employment change: +85,000 forecast vs 115,000 in April

  • Average hourly earnings: +0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.2% m/m in April

  • Unemployment rate: +4.3% forecast vs +4.3% in April

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +11.5% Paladin Energy (PDN) - surged alongside the broader uranium sector after Urenco USA announced plans to expand its New Mexico enrichment plant by 2.1 million separative work units, lifting capacity from 4.3 million SWU to 6.4 million SWU annually, with construction beginning 2029 and first output from new capacity expected in 2032.

• +6.3% Maggie Beer (MBH) - received a takeover offer of up to $10 million for its Hampers and Gifts Australia business from an unnamed multinational consumer goods company, comprising $8 million upfront and up to $2 million in contingent consideration, with a contract expected before July 31.

• +5.4% Ingenia Communities (INA) - confirmed it is on track to deliver full-year earnings at the top end of its $180.5–188.7 million target range, representing 10–15% growth on the prior year, supported by a strong second-half land grab and resilient holiday bookings.

• +3.4% Ampol (ALD) - received ACCC approval for its acquisition of EG Group Australia, subject to the divestiture of 41 retail sites across 39 local markets where the two networks overlap.

• +0.3% Superloop (SLC) - lifted its full-year earnings forecast following its acquisition of Lightning Broadband.

Trading lower

• -3.6% Inghams Group (ING) - Macquarie downgraded to Underperform from Neutral, retaining a $1.80 price target, citing cyclical headwinds expected to compound an already competitive environment.

• -2.2% Harvey Norman (HVN) - Macquarie downgraded to Neutral from Outperform and cut its price target to $4.50 from $6.60, stating the backdrop for the Australian consumer had "weakened materially" and making material cuts to FY26 and FY27 earnings forecasts.

• -1.5% The Lottery Corporation (TLC) - lowered full-year operating expense guidance to $300–310 million from $310–320 million on strict cost discipline and a permanent workforce reduction, though the stock fell despite the cost improvement, with approximately $10 million in labour savings earmarked for reinvestment into digital and AI capabilities.

Broker Moves

4DMedical (4DX)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $6.00 from $4.50

• Retained at sell at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.00

APA Group (APA)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $10.41

Abacus Storage King (ASK)

• Downgraded to hold from buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.50 from $1.70

Bega Cheese (BGA)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.50 from $6.60

Beach Energy (BPT)

• Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $1.05 from $1.10

Collins Foods (CKF)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.80 from $11.10

COG Financial Services (COG)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.30

Coles Group (COL)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $24.10 from $23.80

CSL (CSL)

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $117.00 from $135.00

Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $17.40 from $20.40

EQ Resources (EQR)

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.50

Graincorp (GNC)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $5.20 from $5.90

• Upgraded to hold from underperform at CLSA; Price Target: $4.60 from $4.50

Guzman Y Gomez (GYG)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $25.20

Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN)

• Downgraded to neutral from outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.50 from $6.60

Integral Diagnostics (IDX)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.80

• Initiated at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.50

Inghams Group (ING)

• Downgraded to underperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.80

JB Hi-Fi (JBH)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $98.00 from $106.00

LendLease Group (LLC)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.25 from $3.89

Megaport (MP1)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $15.65

Metcash (MTS)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.00

Monash IVF Group (MVF)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.77

Nine Entertainment Co. Holdings (NEC)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.05 from $1.15

Northern Star Resources (NST)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $29.70

PLS Group (PLS)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $6.75 from $5.20

Pro Medicus (PME)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $221.00 from $244.00

PEXA Group (PXA)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $19.05

Rio Tinto (RIO)

• Downgraded to underperform from sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $143.00 from $141.00

Sonic Healthcare (SHL)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $28.75

Sigma Healthcare (SIG)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.50 from $3.10

SRG Global (SRG)

• Retained at hold at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $3.30 from $3.00

• Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $3.25 from $3.15

• Retained at buy at Moelis Australia; Price Target: $4.02 from $3.15

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $4.00 from $3.15

• Retained at buy at Unified Capital Partners; Price Target: $4.08 from $3.16

Saturn Metals (STN)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.15

The Lottery Corporation (TLC)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $5.10

TPG Telecom (TPG)

• Retained at neutral at E&P; Price Target: $3.87 from $3.86

• Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $4.30

• Upgraded to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $3.70 from $3.60

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.10 from $4.40

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $3.97 from $3.95

Treasury Wine Estates (TWE)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.50 from $5.30

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $4.50 from $4.00

Wesfarmers (WES)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $84.00 from $87.00

Woolworths Group (WOW)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $34.00 from $33.50

Scans