ASX 200 Live Today - Wednesday, 3rd June

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Wednesday, June 3. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

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New updates

ASX 200 nears one-month high

[2:10 pm] A fairly solid session where sectors like Banks, Real Estate and Industrials flipped into positive territory, while Tech and Healthcare are off intraday lows. The ASX 200 is currently up 0.80%, despite falling to around breakeven in early trade. The weaker-than-expected Aussie GDP print resulted in a slight pullback in yields (Australian 2-and-10 year yields down 4 bps and 2 bps respectively). Meanwhile, the ASX 200 Materials index (+1.96%) is trading at a fresh all-time high, surpassing the previous 2 March record. The index is on a four-day win streak, up 6.7% thanks to copper soaring to record highs, along with still-solid iron ore prices, aluminium hitting a four-year high and an uptick in coal prices. That's all for today. Overall, a rather unsettling outlook for the markets, given the mix of high inflation/rising unemployment/soft GDP/wage increases. The resource sector remains a standout, with continued strength across the commodity complex. US-Iran remains a mystery, though oil prices have quietly grinded higher for the last six sessions, with Brent up 1.1% to US$97 a barrel.

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DXN rallies 500%

[1:47 pm] This is probably one of the most wild price moves we've seen in recent months. DXN, a $6.6 million market cap prefabricated modular data centre specialist, signed an $8.8 million binding contract to design, manufacture and commission a 1.36MW AI HPC Modular Data Centre for a US-listed global neo-cloud operator. The deal was worth more than its entire market cap!

The stock rallied 28.5% to 2.7 cents on the news, but aggressive buying throughout the day pushed the stock as high as 12.5% (up ~500%).

The contract includes:

• Pilot structured as a proof-of-concept ahead of a potential larger campus programme, with DXN projecting cumulative follow-on revenue opportunity in excess of US$200m over the next 1-2 years subject to successful delivery

• Manufacturing commences immediately at the Welshpool, WA facility, with on-site US commissioning expected within ~6 months of contract signing

• Solution supports GPU rack densities of up to 150kW per rack using DXN's proprietary prefabricated module with direct-to-chip liquid cooling

• Strategic positioning into a global data centre GPU market estimated at US$99bn in 2025 growing ~14% per annum, with GPU-as-a-Service revenue forecast to surpass US$250bn by 2030

The most intriguing line is the follow-on revenue opportunity flagged at over US$200 million (A$278m) within the next 1–2 years, a claim that may well prompt a query from the ASX seeking further evidence to support it.

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Top ASX 200 gainers and losers

[1:40 pm] Uranium stocks still trading broadly higher, but off best levels (e.g. Paladin up 10.2% vs. intraday high of 14.6%). Meanwhile, discretionary and tech stocks are trading broadly lower, and Lendlease continues its death spiral (down 10% this week, 25% in the past month and 52% year-to-date).

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ASX heavyweights trading broadly higher

[1:37 pm] The market's largest companies are trading broadly higher, with BHP up 2.4% to fresh all-time highs. Its market cap is now $328 billion and tracking well ahead of CBA's $275 billion.

The average stock below is tracking 7.2% higher year-to-date, but when you remove BHP and Rio Tinto, the average drops to (-0.4%).

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UBS lifts Pilbara Minerals target by 30%

[12:56 pm] UBS' expectations for FY27-28 sit well-above consensus (10% and 37% above) on stronger spodumene price expectations, but flags the re-rate is largely priced in with P2000 and Colina growth capex stepping up materially in FY27.

• Target price up to $6.75 (from $5.20), though Neutral-rated as the upgrade is "largely priced in"

• Spodumene forecast to average ~US$4,200/t in FY27 vs. current spot ~US$2,750/t

• FY26 tracking well to guidance of 820-870kt at $560-600/t FOB

• Capex steps up materially in FY27: P2000 FID up to $400m of total $1.7bn could be spent in 2H, with sustaining/mine development/infrastructure capex potentially doubling to ~$600m

• Cash build continues despite capex step-up, with March quarter cash of $1.45bn building to ~$1.8bn by June

Company page: Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

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Lottery Corp commits to faster growth, lifts FY27 payout to 80-100%

[12:47 pm] At its Investor Day, management used the 40-year Victorian licence extension as the platform to commit to faster-than-historical revenue growth, a digital business standalone from FY27 and a more generous post-amortisation dividend policy. The presentation was marked as non-price sensitive.

• 40-year Victorian Lottery Licence extension lifts weighted average licence life to 34 years, with management targeting medium-to-long-term revenue growth above the historical 3.6% CAGR

• Digital to become a standalone vertical from FY27 targeting higher margins and younger cohorts, with an AI-powered greenfield app launch flagged within 12-18 months

• FY26 opex guidance reduced to $300-310m, with $10m of annualised savings from the operating model restructure

• FY27 dividend policy updated to 80-100% of NPAT (pre-significant items), adding back licence amortisation after tax, with capital allocation framework prioritising investment grade rating

• No multi-year revenue guidance provided, with progress to be tracked via customer numbers, digital penetration, demographic shifts and product cadence

Company page: The Lottery Corp (TLC)

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Analysts' take on SRG Global

[12:45 pm] SRG announced a record $1.85 billion in new contract wins alongside a second FY26 guidance upgrade and an earlier-than-typical maiden FY27 EBITDA guidance that came in materially above consensus. The stock surged 16.6% on the day.

• Shaw and Partners retained Buy, raised target from $3.15 to $4.00, citing contract diversity strengthening long-duration earnings visibility, FY27 guidance well ahead of expectations and an unjustified relative valuation discount to peer MND given the growth differential.

• Goldman Sachs retained Neutral, raised target from $3.15 to $3.25, noting long-duration wins with blue-chip clients improve recurring revenue quality and FY27 guidance ahead of consensus underpins medium-term earnings confidence, driving incremental estimate upgrades across FY26 to FY28.

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Is that not stagflation?

[12:33 pm] We've now got a situation where:

• April unemployment was 4.5%, up from 4.3% in March and above market expectations of 4.3%. This marks the highest unemployment print since late 2021

• April CPI was up 4.2% year-on-year, down from 4.6% in March following the reduction of the fuel excise (from 52.6c to 20.6c at the beginning of the month)

• April trimmed mean ticked up to 3.4% and services inflation was at 3.5%, all above the RBA's 2-3% band

• Today's Q1 GDP was up 0.3% quarter-on-quarter and 2.5% year-on-year, below market expectations of 0.5% and 2.7% respectively

• The Fair Work Commission also lifted the minimum wage by 6.0% and modern award wages by 4.75%

The ASX 200 was trading around breakeven at ~11 am, now up 0.60% as the data may tempter RBA rate hike expectations.

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Australian Q1 GDP up 0.3% as cyclones and cautious households drag

[12:22 pm] The headline came in subdued at 0.3% quarter-on-quarter and 2.5% year-on-year as cyclone disruptions hit mining exports and households pulled back, partially offset by the largest M&E investment quarter in 30 years on data centre build-out.

• GDP up 0.3% in Q1 2026 and 2.5% year-on-year, both fell short of market expectations of 0.3% and 2.7% respectively

• Weather disruptions hit mining output (-1.5%) and transport/warehousing (-1.3%)

• Household spending up 0.5%, with essentials +0.8% but discretionary just +0.1%, and electricity/gas/fuels spending up 11.7% as government rebates ceased

• Government final consumption fell 0.2%, the weakest quarter since September 2022, as Commonwealth defence spending slowed and state/local spending fell 0.8% on the end of electricity rebates

• Private business investment up 6.0% on a 16.3% jump in machinery and equipment, the largest rise in 30 years, driven by data centre expansion in NSW and Victoria, though much of the contribution was offset via imports

• Household saving ratio fell to 6.2% from 7.0% as nominal spending outpaced disposable income growth, with income tax and interest payments dragging on household income

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Fair Work Commission lifts minimum wage 4.75% for FY27, above inflation and broader wages

[12:21 pm] Morgan Stanley flags the decision as a sticky-wages signal that adds upside risk to an already elevated inflation pulse, though a sharp housing-led slowdown should cap the pass-through.

• FWC announced a 4.75% increase to the national minimum wage and minimum award wages effective 1 July 2026, above headline inflation at 4.2% year-on-year, core at 3.4% and the overall wage rate of 3.3%

• Award wage increase directly affects ~21% of workers, with the direct boost to wage growth estimated at ~0.1ppts

• Morgan Stanley sees the decision as an upward driver of wage growth via EBA-linked wages and broader wage expectations, adding upside risk to an inflation trajectory the RBA is already focused on

• Sharp economic slowdown expected through 2H26 on housing weakness should provide some limit to wage and price rises, with labour market trends the key swing factor

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Resources lift the ASX 200 higher

[11:22 am] We're seeing more and more of these sessions where the ASX 200 looks alright, only for that strength to be almost entirely masked by miners.

The index is currently up 0.27%, with Materials and Energy both rallying more than 1%, while every other sector is tracking slightly lower. Breadth is quite weak, with 131 constituents (66%) in the red.

ASX 200 sector performance (Source: Market Index)

Zooming out, Energy and Materials are the only two sectors with some meaningful gains year-to-date.

ASX 200 year-to-date sector performance (Source: Market Index)

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Tech stocks take a breather

[11:15 am] Tech stocks are trading broadly lower after a three-day rally, with most names down 3-4% in early trade. The average tech stock from the list below has gained 10.4% in the past week.

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DXN signs maiden AI HPC contract worth $8.8m

[10:48 am] DXN was a ~$6.6 million market cap prefabricated modular data centre specialist that designs, manufactures and deploys factory-built data centre modules. The company signed a binding contract for $8.8 million design, engineer, manufacture and commission a 1.36MW AI HPC Modular Data Centre for a US-listed global neo-cloud operator (so revenue from the deal is worth more than its entire market cap).

The stock is currently up 185% to 6 cents.

• Pilot structured as a proof-of-concept ahead of a potential larger campus programme, with DXN projecting cumulative follow-on revenue opportunity in excess of US$200m over the next 1-2 years subject to successful delivery

• Manufacturing commences immediately at the Welshpool, WA facility, with on-site US commissioning expected within ~6 months of contract signing

• Solution supports GPU rack densities of up to 150kW per rack using DXN's proprietary prefabricated module with direct-to-chip liquid cooling

• Strategic positioning into a global data centre GPU market estimated at US$99bn in 2025 growing ~14% per annum, with GPU-as-a-Service revenue forecast to surpass US$250bn by 2030

Company page: DXN (DXN)

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Australian industrial activity slumps as energy crisis chokes orders

[10:36 am] The Australian Industry Index, a monthly Ai Group survey tracking conditions across manufacturing, construction and services (readings below zero signal contraction), stayed near record lows in May with new orders at -34.6, the weakest since late 2024, as investment delays spread from manufacturing into business services.

• Headline Australian Industry Index at -26.5 (seasonally adjusted), with activity/sales at -32.6 and employment at -14.6, both still firmly in contraction

• New orders fell 6.3 points to -34.6, a level last seen in late 2024, with firms flagging thin forward pipelines as customers postpone investment amid energy market uncertainty

• Input prices remained elevated at 63.1 (down 6.4 points) versus sales prices at just 18.3 (down 2.4 points), with the gap pointing to ongoing margin compression and limited pass-through ability

• Average wages index rose 6.0 points to 43.6, signalling a reacceleration in wage growth and continued labour cost pressures for higher-skilled roles

• Business services materially weaker in May as investment uncertainty spreads beyond manufacturing, with rising input costs cited by 28% of firms as the dominant pressure

Source: Australia Industry Group

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BHP opens at a third straight record high

[10:31 am] That's a third straight record open for BHP. The stock is now up 42% year-to-date and up 70% in the last twelve months.

BHP daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

There's a lot to like about the 'Big Australian'. As CEO Mike Henry puts it: "We are the world's largest copper producer, a top 20 gold producer, we produce 5 per cent of the world's uranium, and these are valuable positions."

In an era where most copper majors miss/downgrade production expectations, BHP has had a smooth production track record.

Source: BHP 1H26 results presentation

Its latest 1H26 result pointed to "potential for significant value creation as BHP continues to grow our copper business and increase our copper exposure."

Source: BHP 1H26 results presentation

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Copper stocks broadly higher

[10:19 am] Most copper names up 2-3% in early trade after copper prices rose 1.6% overnight to a record US$6.71/lb.

Copper has rallied 4.4% in the last two sessions, with prices up 16.8% year-to-date.

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Top ASX 200 gainers and losers

[10:15 am] Uranium stocks top the large cap leaderboard, along with broad gains across the resource complex (lithium, rare earths, aluminium, copper and more). Meanwhile, the software rally takes a breather, while discretionary stocks like Harvey Norman and Guzman Y Gomez open sharply lower.

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Uranium stocks open sharply higher

[10:03 am] A massive open for uranium stocks, with most names up 8-10%. On Tuesday, Urenco USA, the only commercial-scale nuclear fuel producer in the US,said it aims to lift enriched uranium capacity by almost 50%.

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Acrow's Industrial Access to top $200m revenue in FY26

[9:48 am] The division's two recent acquisitions, Above Scaffold and Brand Australia, are running ahead of expectations despite softening activity within its Construction Services division.

• Industrial Access division FY26 revenue to exceed $200m, up ~50% year-on-year, with Above Scaffold and Brand Australia contributing ~$40m of growth and another ~$30m from organic growth

• FY27 revenue already ~$180m secured, with the September-November shutdown season expected to add ~$3m of incremental profit versus the prior period

• Brand Australia's Hunter Valley depot renewed its largest contract with Glencore worth ~$8m per annum on a minimum three-year term, covering more than 60% of the branch's revenue base

• New wins include a $7m Advanced Aqua Blast contract at Lucinda Jetty, $5m at Tarong Power Station and $5m with Incitec at Phosphate Hill

Company page: Acrow (ACF)

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ACCC clears Ampol's EG Australia buy subject to 41-site divestment

[9:38 am] The regulator green-lit the deal after Ampol agreed to offload 41 overlapping retail sites across 39 local markets, with Dib Group's Metro Petroleum approved as the buyer.

• “Without the conditions, the ACCC considered the acquisition could have the effect of substantially lessening competition in the retail supply of petrol or diesel in 39 local markets, where 41 EG Australia sites overlap with Ampol sites," noted the ACCC report

• 41-site divestment package addresses the overlap concerns

• Dib Group (Metro Petroleum) approved as purchaser of the divestiture sites

Company page: Ampol (ALD)

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Tivan secures $5m Tuckwell family office placement

[9:34 am] The placement and options lock in funding from the Tuckwell family office and Evolution Capital to accelerate development planning and exploration at its key projects in Australia and the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste.

• 16.7m share placement to ETFSC, the family office of Graham and Louise Tuckwell, priced at $0.30 per share (~$5m raise) under a binding term sheet

• Issue price represents a slight premium to the 29c last close

• Separate $10m underwriting agreement signed with Evolution Capital for the exercise of listed TVNO options at $0.30, expiring 30 June 2026

Company page: Tivan (TVN)

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Superloop lifts FY26 EBITDA guidance, unveils SuperCharge29 strategy

[9:32 am] The upgraded range sits above the top end of the prior guide and consensus, with management today rolling out a three-year strategy targeting ~$1bn revenue and $200m EBITDA by FY29.

• FY26 underlying EBITDA guided to $118-122m, up from prior $112-120m and ahead of $116.4m consensus, representing 28-32% growth on FY25

• Lightning Broadband acquisition contributing ~$700k in FY26 following 29 May completion

• FY26 capex guide lifted $2m to $34-37m (ex IRU renewal)

• Q3 net additions: Consumer +28k (86k YTD to 30 April), Wholesale +35k (64k YTD), Business +3k across all product lines

• SuperCharge29 strategy targets ~$1bn revenue, $200m underlying EBITDA and ~30% EPS CAGR by FY29, underpinned by organic growth, operating leverage, Smart Communities expansion and accretive M&A

Company page: Superloop (SLC)

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James Hardie targets $125m revenue synergy exit rate by end-2026

[9:27 am] Management told the William Blair conference FY27 free cash flow conversion should top $500 million (vs FY26: $314m), with leverage stepping down from 2.9x to 2.4x and Fiber Cement organic growth turning positive.

• Easic integration completed, with combined sales force expected to drive a $125m revenue synergy exit rate by end-2026 and further acceleration thereafter

• Fiber Cement organic growth projected to return to positive in 2026, with Statement Essentials and new install methods aiming to halve the cost gap to vinyl siding

• FCF conversion expected to exceed $500m in FY27 from $314m in FY26, with leverage falling from 2.9x to 2.4x in FY27 and ≤2x by Q2 2028

• FY27 margin expansion underpinned by cost synergies, facility closures and productivity gains

• Decking showing positive Q2 demand signals via rising contractor backlogs and homeowner leads, with Railing flagged as a high-growth opportunity in a fragmented market

• Macro backdrop: New construction demand down ~5% and R&R flat to -2% in 2026, with $80-100m of freight and materials inflation to be offset by pricing

Company page: James Hardie Industries (JHX)

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Megaport launches $827m raise to fund AI inference cloud build

[9:19 am] The capital raise will fund a major build-out of AI inference infrastructure, including hardware for four new US customer contracts and a pool of GPUs that enterprises can tap on demand.

• Offer priced at $14.30, a 13.9% discount to the last close of $16.61

• Four new AI infrastructure contracts with US-based tech providers totalling $458.9m total contracted value and $199.0m in annual recurring revenue

• Contract capex of $369.5m primarily for Nvidia GPUs with ~27 month payback, plus $350m to seed an on-demand GPU Pool

• Compute division pro forma ARR jumps to $385.2m (6.4x since the Latitude.sh acquisition)

• Network ARR at April-26 up 25% on constant currency to $277.7m with Net Revenue Retention by logo at 113%

• FY26 revenue guidance tightened to $307-315m (not reflecting Strategic Contracts), with EBITDA margin guidance unchanged at 21-24% and group capex guidance unchanged at $90-100m

Company page: Megaport (MP1)

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Life360 narrows MCU guide to 17-20% as Q1 tech issues clear, ad revenue tracking to double

[9:09 am] Management told the Evercore TMT conference Q2 MAU trends have reverted to the targeted growth path, with advertising flagged as the standout driver for 2026

• 2026 MAU growth guidance narrowed to 17-20% following Q1 technical issues that have now largely resolved, with Q2 trends back on the targeted trajectory

• Advertising revenue run rate projected to nearly double by year-end 2026, with a 2026 target set at over $100m

• Paying Circles growth described as structurally strong and expected to outpace MAU growth in the near term, with the pet product positioned as a cross-sell hook into the free base

• International expansion in 2026 prioritising Brazil, Mexico and Germany, with Northern and Central Europe next in the pipeline

• Long-term EBITDA margin target of 35%, with buybacks sized to offset SBC dilution and no large-scale M&A planned for 2026

Company page: Life360 (360)

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Tasmea flags 31% EPS accretion from Maxim acquisition, leverage stays under 1x

[9:07 am] Tasmea shares surged 16.2% on Tuesday after the company announced a massively accretive deal which lifts FY26 EBIT to $175 million. Here are some of the key takeaways from the conference call:

• Pro forma FY26 EBIT of $175m and NPAT of $107m assuming full-year Maxim ownership, driving 31% pro forma EPS accretion

• Settlement targeted for 1 July 2026, with net leverage post-deal staying around 0.75-0.8x pro forma FY26 EBITDA

• Maxim earn-out tied to achieving at least $50m EBIT per annum across FY27, FY28 and FY29

• Annual electrical labour revenue forecast to reach ~$100m post-acquisition, with Maxim's revenue mix steady at roughly 55% data centre and 45% rail/infrastructure

• Tailwind from Australian data centre demand projected to grow at a 21% CAGR to 4GW by 2030, with a 200MW capacity shortfall flagged for 2026

• Adds a Victoria entry point and national expansion runway through Maxim's specialist services and client base

Company page: Tasmea (TEA)

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Uranium stocks to rise as US seeks to lift enrichment capacity

[9:02 am] Local uranium names like Paladin Energy, Boss Energy and Deep Yellow are set to open higher on Wednesday.

The only commercial-scale US enrichment producer is adding 2.1 million separative work units (enrichment work) to its Eunice plant to help fill the gap left by the 2024 Russian uranium import ban and the administration's push to quadruple nuclear output. Here are the key takeaways from Bloomberg:

• Expansion adds 2.1m SWU to the existing 4.3m SWU annual capacity at Eunice, New Mexico, with first of 24 new centrifuge sets due online from 2032

• Existing plant already covers around a third of current US demand, with the EIA flagging in September potential uranium shortages over the next decade

• Russia supplied roughly a fifth of US uranium two years ago, with the 2024 import ban allowing limited waivers until 2028

• Backdrop is the Trump administration's target to quadruple US nuclear output, driven largely by AI data centre power demand

This drove a strong response for the US-listed Global X Uranium ETF, which rallied 5.7% and NYSE-listed Nexgen shares also surged 9.1%.

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AI listings test market with $350bn equity supply wave

[8:58 am] Alphabet's $80 billion raise plus SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs together drop a third of a trillion in fresh paper into the market, with Goldman flagging buybacks still likely to absorb it.

• Four names lining up over $350bn in fresh equity supply, with Alphabet $80bn for AI capex, SpaceX ~$75bn IPO at near-$1tn valuation, Anthropic raising at $965bn post-money (53x late-2024), OpenAI ~$100bn at private market levels

• Bloomberg analysts flag pressure on market ROE near a record 20%, noting Alphabet's $80bn alone would have flipped Q4-25 net equity supply from -$44bn to +$40bn

• Goldman lifted 2026 IPO volume forecast to $225bn from $160bn with another $500bn from lockup expiries, but argues demand outweighs supply with buybacks forecast at $1.3tn vs $1.1tn of issuance

• BofA argues IPOs will consume dry powder and force investors to sell recent winners to fund new issuance, putting Big Tech holdings in scope as a source of funds

• Oppenheimer reads the shift to equity over debt as a sign capital markets are turning less favourable to AI data centre financing, potentially forcing weaker-positioned names like Meta to rationalise spend

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Eurozone CPI tops 3% for first time in 2.5 years

[8:57 am] Headline at 3.2% and services at 3.5% have effectively sealed a 25 bp hike on 11 June, the ECB's first hike since September 2023.

• May headline CPI accelerated to 3.2% year-on-year from 3.0%, in line with consensus, with core firming more than expected to 2.5% and services jumping to 3.5%

• Markets and Bloomberg Economics now expect a 25bp rise at the 11 June meeting, with hawks likely to use the services strength to push for a follow-up move in September

• ECB's Schnabel said it is too early to call the full cycle, Simkus said a second hike after June is "more likely than not", and Rehn framed June as "an insurance" move with expectations still anchored

• Big-four CPIs all sit above target: France 2.8%, Italy 3.3%, Spain 3.6% and Germany moderating to 2.7%, driven largely by war-induced energy costs

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US JOLTS openings smash forecasts

[8:53 am] April job openings landed well above the ~6.85 million consensus, kicking off a busy run of US labour data that culminates in Friday's May nonfarm payrolls.

• JOLTS openings of 7.6m vs ~6.85m ests, reflecting a massive jump in professional and business services (0.6m)

• Friday's May nonfarm payrolls consensus at ~+90k, unemployment steady at 4.3% and average hourly earnings +0.3% after April's +0.2%

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Trump tweaks Section 232 metals tariffs, easing some derivatives to 15%

[8:51 am] Selected steel and aluminium derivatives drop to 15% from 25%, with a new 10% pathway for foreign capital equipment using ~85% US-melted metal, effective 8 June through end-2027.

• Tariff on certain steel and aluminium derivative products including agricultural machinery and residential HVAC equipment cut to 15% from 25%

• Mobile industrial equipment such as bulldozers and forklifts subject to 15% when imported from trade deal countries entitled to such treatment

• Foreign companies qualify for a 10% tariff if their capital equipment is at least 85% US-melted-and-poured or smelted-and-cast steel or aluminium by weight

• Two new categories added at 25% duties: steel racks and aluminium lithographic plates

• Effective for goods imported after 12:01am EST on 8 June, with the regime to run through 31 December 2027 to "spur near-term investments" in the US industrial base

Source: Reuters

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US consumer shows cracks as Dollar General flags food cutbacks on petrol prices

[8:50 am] Dollar General's CEO told analysts core customers are buying less food, the strongest signal yet from retailers that rising fuel costs and SNAP benefit cuts are biting into staples spending.

• CEO Todd Vasos said pressure is "more pronounced" in rural communities where shoppers are minimising trip distance and trading down, marking a step beyond prior bargain-hunting commentary that stopped short of flagging outright volume declines

• Retailer leaned into more $1 private-label and frozen items to drive traffic, and raised its full-year outlook on the back of the deal-seeking behaviour

• McCormick CEO Brendan Foley at a Deutsche Bank conference said the "resilient consumer" narrative "feels like it's weakening a little bit" amid rising petrol prices

Source: Bloomberg

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SpaceX IPO fees squeezed to under 0.75%

[8:50 am] The $75 billion raise at a ~$1.8 trillion valuation would smash IPO records, but Musk has negotiated one of the slimmest underwriting spreads ever, with implications for OpenAI and Anthropic listings to come.

• Base fee under 0.75% on $75bn proposed raise, equating to roughly $500m for the 23-bank syndicate, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley taking the lion's share as lead banks

• Spread compares to the typical 4-7% on sub-$1bn IPOs and the more than 1% banks usually secure on mega-deals, matching the 0.75% GM paid in 2010 when Wall Street was rebuilding post-crisis sentiment

• Up to 5% of shares reserved for SpaceX employees plus friends and family of executive officers per Monday's filing

Source: Bloomberg

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McDonald's unveils "NEXT" strategy as new chains chip away at share

[8:47 am] Maccas is leaning on chicken, beverages, in-store redesigns and AI order-taking to fend off an onslaught of new competition.

• New "McDonald's > NEXT" plan rests on four pillars: restaurant redesign, better-tasting food and drinks, consumer-led innovation, and improved service, replacing the 2020 "Accelerating the Arches" framework

• CEO Chris Kempczinski warned franchisees that "in a world where every restaurant is a swipe away, there is no such thing as second place", with specialist chains redefining chicken, beef and beverages

• Menu focus on McCrispy and broader chicken expansion, with US chicken consumption ahead of beef for 16 years according to USDA data

• Testing automated order-taking system "ARCHY" at five US restaurants to free up staff for hospitality

Source: CNBC

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HPE surges 19% on AI-driven guidance blowout, biggest day since 2015 split

[8:45 am] HP crushed Q2 earnings expectations and guided to FY26 earnings well-ahead of consensus, with CEO Antonio Neri framing it as "a volume story with very disciplined pricing execution".

• Q2 revenue up 40% to $10.68bn vs $9.76bn ests (9% beat)

• Adjusted EPS of $0.79 vs $0.53 ests (49% beat)

• Server revenue up 33% to $5.5bn with triple-digit growth in AI server bookings, networking revenue up 148% to $2.7bn

• FY26 guide: Revenue growth +29-33% (vs +19% consensus) and adjusted EPS of $3.35-3.45 vs $2.42 ests (41% beat at midpoint), with FY27 framework for +8-12% revenue growth vs +5.3% consensus

• 3Q26 guide: Revenue of $11.5-$12.1bn vs $10.9bn ests (8% beat at midpoint) and adjusted EPS of $0.88-$0.93 vs $0.58 ests (56%)

• Elliott Investment Management partner Chris Hsu appointed to the board under last year's activist cooperation pact, with HPE having roughly doubled its market cap to $74.4bn in the past month

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US-Iran deal drags despite Trump optimism

[8:43 am] Trump told critics to "sit back and relax" on negotiations even as US and Iranian forces clashed again near Hormuz.

• US struck Iranian radar and command-and-control sites over the weekend in what it called a "measured" response, with the IRGC retaliating against an airbase and three ballistic missiles intercepted over Kuwait's Ali Al-Salem base

• Iran is demanding any deal cover all regional fronts including Lebanon, where Israel captured the Beaufort Castle and Hezbollah fired over 300 projectiles at Israeli forces over the weekend

• Outstanding technical issues include Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpiles and the demining required before Hormuz can reopen, with Qatar flagging a temporary transit fee to fund clearance as negotiable

Source: Bloomberg

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Iran-US deal stalls as Strait of Hormuz stays shut

[8:41 am] Tehran has gone quiet on a proposed interim agreement for several days, leaving the strait that previously carried a fifth of global oil and LNG supply still closed to most traffic.

• Iranian media report messages on the draft MOU stopped days ago, with Tehran taking a "stern" approach citing US non-compliance history, though Trump insists talks have continued daily

• Rubio told Congress Iran has agreed to negotiate previously off-limits aspects of its nuclear programme, but flagged no sanctions relief has been offered for reopening the strait, which remains the first US condition

• Iran is pushing for a limited deal covering oil revenue access, export waivers, a lifting of the US ports blockade and continued strait leverage, while deferring nuclear concessions

• IRGC said just 24 vessels transited the strait in the past 24 hours under its permission regime, and claimed responsibility for a projectile strike on an MSC vessel at Iraq's Umm Qasr port

• Israel kept up strikes across southern Lebanon despite Monday's US-mediated partial ceasefire with Hezbollah, with 1.2m Lebanese displaced

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S&P 500 matches longest win streak since 1995 as AI trade reignites

[8:39 am] The S&P 500 its ninth-straight gain and sixth straight all-time high, with Marvell and HPE leading a semiconductor-led rally that offset Alphabet weakness on its $80 billion equity raise.

• S&P 500 up 0.1%, Nasdaq 100 up 0.5%, both at record closes

• Breadth still narrow despite small caps leading, with four sectors lower on the day

• Marvell surged 33% after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang flagged it as the next likely $1tn market cap candidate, while HPE jumped 19% on an annual sales outlook ahead of consensus on AI server and networking demand

• Alphabet fell 3.9% on plans to raise $80bn in equity to fund AI capex, with Hargreaves Lansdown's Matt Britzman saying it is "a clear sign that the AI arms race is moving into a more capital-hungry phase"

• April JOLTS job openings hit a near two-year high with layoffs falling, pointing to firmer labour demand after near-zero job growth in 2025

• Trump said a US-Iran MOU to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could land within a week

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Good morning!

[8:30 am] ASX 200 futures are up 38 pts (+0.43%).

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq closed at fresh records, the S&P's first close above 7,600, though breadth was narrow and small caps led

• HPE soared 19% on a blowout AI-server quarter and raised guidance, while Marvell jumped about 32% after Nvidia's CEO called it the next trillion-dollar company.

• Oil eased from session highs as US-Iran signals stayed mixed, copper hit fresh all-time highs while Bitcoin tumbled to a two-month low of ~US$67,000