Evening Wrap: ASX 200 slides to 2026 low as gold and resources bull markets unwind, Santos and Woodside rallies continue

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 33.7 points lower, down 0.39%.

The ASX 200 fell to a four-month low as investors adopted a defensive stance ahead of the Reserve Bank’s interest rate decision and ongoing tensions in the Middle East kept energy markets on edge.

The prospect of higher fuel costs lifting global inflation and disrupting supply chains weighed on mining stocks in particular, even as defensive sectors and some financials held firm.

In stock specific news:

• Reliance Worldwide (RWC) (+6.9%) — rallied after announcing an additional $120 million on-market share buyback to return excess capital to shareholders.

• Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) (+1.4%) — edged higher after signing an agreement with the US Department of Defence to supply light and heavy rare earth oxides under a four-year program.

• Perpetual (PPT) (+1.8%) — firmed after agreeing to sell its wealth management business to Bain Capital for an upfront payment of $500 million.

• IperionX (IPX) (-22.2%) — plunged despite attempts to reassure investors over the funding mechanics of its US Department of Defence grant reimbursements.

• KMD Brands (KMD) (-10.5%) — slid after appointing Goldman Sachs to review its capital structure and funding options.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 33.7 points lower at 8,583.4, 0.4% from its session high and just 0.2% from its low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers lagged decliners by a disappointing 103 to 180.

Think about watching your favourite basketball team while the other team has the ball: (crowd chants) Defence cha cha cha, Defence cha cha cha! 📣

Investors played defence today, funnelling cash that must still be invested regardless of the state of the world into Consumer Staples (XSJ) (+0.8%) and Utilities (XUJ) (+0.8%). Coles Group (COL) (+2.2%), Amcor PLC (AMC) (+1.8%), AGL Energy (AGL) (+1.7%) were the best there.

The big banks largely held their ground — Financials (XFJ) (+0.4%) — as investors expected them to be beneficiaries from tomorrow's interest rate hike. You know the drill: jack up mortgage rates fast and further than you eventually reward you faithful depositors! Ka-ching! 💰💰💰

Energy (XEJ) (+0.5%) was also solid as investors rotated in to the sector, with Brent crude futures on COMEX holding above the US$105 a barrel mark, supporting oil producers. Santos (STO) (+2.1%) and Woodside Energy Group (WDS) (+1.9%) were among the stronger performers.

Weakness in resources stocks weighed on the broader market as the rally in gold producers continued to unwind and iron ore prices retreated after recent gains.

Resources (XJR) (-1.9%) fell with South32 (S32) (-5.7%), Mineral Resources (MIN) (-4.7%) and Fortescue (FMG) (-3.9%) lower, while Gold Sub-Index (XGD) (-3.7%) slumped as Northern Star Resources (NST) (-5.4%), Genesis Minerals (GMD) (-4.3%) and Newmont Corp. (NEM) (-4.2%) declined.

Technology stocks also struggled as the appetite for higher-risk growth names remained subdued. Information Technology (XIJ) (-1.5%) extended its recent weakness as investors continued to favour defensive sectors.

In commodities, precious metals eased again in Asian trade, with COMEX gold futures down 0.85% to around US$5,018/oz and silver falling 1.2% to about US$80.39/oz.

Iron ore prices also slipped after Chinese steel production declined in the first two months of the year, reflecting weaker demand from mills. The softer outlook weighed on iron ore producers.

Lithium prices weakened in China trade, with spodumene concentrate falling 1.6% to around US$2,210/t. The decline dragged on lithium names including IGO (IGO) (-4.3%) and PLS Group (PLS) (-2.7%).

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

Nasdaq Composite Index

Analysis

Long suffering readers of ChartWatch likely don’t require a great deal of explanation about what Friday’s candle implies about the balance between demand and supply for constituents of the Comp.

You know what that candle signifies, and you know how to put it together with the other growing supply-side showings — and conclude that as far as risk allocation goes: FRP is off the table.

Full Risk Position.

Equals fully invested.

And for the average investor, FRP is usually an all the time proposition. “In the long run, markets go up” — we’re told. 🤞

Sure, but it’s also always fair to say that:

In the long run markets go up, but they can go down quite a lot too!

FRP during the good bits is good. FRP during the bad bits is not-so-good (=😭).

Anyways, I’m not FRP. I’m still 1/2RP — and some of that 1/2RP is in shorts.

But — as counter intuitive as this might sound to the group of you who know how to read the chart above — some RP is still in longs.

It’s easy to think:

“Um, okay Carl, even blind Freddy can see what’s going on here… it’s not looking too good for the old Comp-meister… Why not pull out all the long RP and just go 100% short RP… When the market tanks, you’ll clean up!”

Well, firstly, I don’t know what the Comp-meister’s going to do next — wouldn’t have the darndest clue!

I can’t tell the future. Nobody can. Not even the President of the United States himself!!! 🙅

Now, like you, for the Comp I’m attaching a MOTN (More Often Than Not) to the 📉 than the 📈 scenario.

But there’s still a chance the long term uptrend ribbon does its job, that demand kicks in, and the bull market continues.

Is it Dumb or Dumber to think the Comp still has a good chance to rally?

However slim a chance… I’m saying there’s a chance! 😉

Next, consider that even in the worst bear markets, there’s still a group of elite stocks that are in strong short- and long-term uptrends. Many of these stocks are positioned to profit from whatever is causing the rest of the market to melt down.

So, in my opinion, there’s always room for some considered and measured long exposure. Plus, perhaps most importantly, like the experts tell us — the market has to go up again at some point — we must ensure that we have some long-side exposure when it does.

The next burning question relates to the question of why don’t we just load up on shorts? 🤷

As in: FULL METAL JACKET-RP SHORT! 🪖

This is a super relevant and reasonable question. I answer it in last week’s ChartWatch *LIVE* Webinar which can you find the link to by scrolling a little further down 👇.

Sure, stocks generally get belted in bear markets — but bear markets are by their nature extremely volatile beasts. Shorts tend to be effective in short-sharp bursts, but outside of these, volatility can kill both longs and shorts.

Hence the reason why I will move to 1/3RP when the Comp’s price closes below the long term uptrend ribbon / 21898.

That very low level of RP — containing both long and short exposure is designed to keep me safe in markets which I know, from experience, are excellent at chewing up and spitting out trend traders! 🤕

View

1/2RP still feels valid with respect to my US portfolio risk limit (RP = Risk Position — it reflects my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in US stocks — how full I can fill my US "Risk Bucket" if you prefer. 1/2RP is 50%, 2/3RP is 67% and FRP is 100% 🪣).

Key levels

21898 is the critical zone of demand — a close below it implies the long term uptrend is likely under significant pressure (over!?) = ⚠️. The short term downtrend ribbon (presently 22696-22828) is the nearest critical zone of point supply, and 22907-23170-23321 aren't far beyond that.

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Analysis

“Circumstances beyond our control.”

That’s how you’d likely explain the ASX 200’s (aka, the Old Tin Pot’s) demise from the 2 March record high to its present 4-month low.

But it is what it is. No point crying into a bucket about it! 😭

Nope, the only bucket we care about filling is our risk bucket! 🪣

And the question is: Looking at the above chart, how full should one’s risk bucket be? 🤔

Is the chart above a picture of strong excess demand? I.e. can you see:

• Rising short and long term uptrends (double green trend ribbons) = pervasive buy the dip ❌

• Rising peaks and rising troughs = FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) into new highs and buying the dip? ❌

• A predominance of demand-side candles, i.e., those with white-bodies and downward pointing shadows = overwhelming pervasive algorithmic buy orders. ❌

Answer: Hardly (and Quite likely, the opposite! ⚠️)

Oops!

Really, the only thing that stands between the OTP and likely even deeper falls is the excess demand we’re hoping to encounter between 8383 and 8457.

We’re hoping there’s excess demand down there because it was there in the past. Is it still there? We shall see!!! 🍿

View

1/2RP, logically, still feels like the right place for me to be 🪣 (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in Australian stocks is 50%).

Key levels

8383-8457 is the closest zone of demand (static). Beyond it — the bear market awaits...⚠️🚨 The ASX 200 must at least close back above the long term uptrend ribbon (presently 8673-8776 to reclaim any semblance of demand-side control.

Economy

Today

• CHN February 'Data Dump'

  • New Home Prices: -0.28% m/m vs -0.37% m/m in January

  • Fixed Asset Investment: +1.8% ytd/y vs -5.0% ytd/y forecast and -3.8% ytd/y in January

  • Industrial Production: +6.3% p.a. vs +5.3% p.a. forecast and +5.2% p.a. in January

  • Retail Sales: +2.8% p.a. vs +2.6% p.a. forecast and +0.9% p.a. in January

  • Unemployment Rate: 5.3% vs 5.1% forecast and 5.1% in January

Later this week

Tuesday

• 14:30 AUS RBA Official Cash Rate Announcement & Statement of Monetary Policy

  • +0.25% to 4.10% forecast

• 15:30 AUS RBA Governor Michelle Bullock press conference

Wednesday

• 23:30 USA February Core Producer Price Index (PPI) (+0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.8% m/m in January)

Thursday

• 05:00 USA Federal Reserve Funds Rate, Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) Economic Projections & Statement of Monetary Policy (no change at 3.75% forecast)

• 05:30 USA Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell press conference

• 11:30 AUS February Employment

  • Change: +20,300 forecast vs +17,800 in January

  • Unemployment rate: unchanged at 4.1%

• Tentative: JPN Bank of Japan (BOJ) Policy rate (no change at <0.75% forecast)

• 23:00 UK Bank of England (BOE) Official Bank Rate Announcement & Monetary Policy Summary (no change at 3.75% forecast)

Friday

• 00:15 EUR European Central Bank Main Financing Rate Announcement & Statement of Monetary Policy (no change at 2.15% forecast)

• 12:00 CHN Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) Long Prime Rate Announcement

• 1-year Loan Prime Rate: no change at 3.0% forecast

• 5-year Loan Prime Rate: no change at 3.5% forecast

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +9.6% Dateline Resources (DTR) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.8% Reliance Worldwide Corp. (RWC) – RWC announces variation to on-market share buy-back.

• +4.6% Karoon Energy (KAR) – No news, general strength across the broader Energy sector today.

• +4.3% BetaShares Crude Oil ETF (OOO) – No news (crude oil ETF), general strength across the broader Energy sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +4.3% AMP (AMP) – No news, general strength across the broader Financials sector today.

• +4.1% Challenger (CGF) – No news, general strength across the broader Financials sector today.

• +2.2% Coles Group (COL) – No news, general strength across the broader Consumer Staples sector today.

• +2.1% Santos (STO) – No news, general strength across the broader Energy sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +1.9% Woodside Energy Group (WDS) – No news, general strength across the broader Energy sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -22.2% Iperionx (IPX) – Response to ASX Price Query and Correction to Half Year Accounts.

• -13.5% Chalice Mining (CHN) – Continued negative response to 13-Mar Half Year Accounts - 31 December 2025, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and long term trend is transitioning from up to down 🔎📉

• -12.2% Silver Mines (SVL) – No news since 13-Mar Half Yearly Report and Accounts, general weakness across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• -11.3% Deep Yellow (DYL) – No news (rumours of impending capital raise likely not helping), general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today.

• -10.1% Silex Systems (SLX) – Ceasing to be a substantial holder (Bank of New York Mellon, was 5%).

• -10.1% Sun Silver (SS1) – No news, general weakness across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• -8.8% St Barbara (SBM) – No news, general weakness across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• -8.5% Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) – No news, general weakness across the broader Lithium sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

Broker Moves

Audinate Group (AD8)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.00 from $5.00

Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $65.20

ALS (ALQ)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $27.30

ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $40.30

ARB Corporation (ARB)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $25.50

Bellevue Gold (BGL)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $2.25

BHP Group (BHP)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $56.00

Boss Energy (BOE)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.00

Breville Group (BRG)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $39.85

• Upgraded to buy from accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $37.20

Chalice Mining (CHN)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $3.00

Cochlear (COH)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $194.00 from $216.00

Capstone Copper Corp. (CSC)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $15.50

Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure (DBI)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $6.00

Dicker Data (DDR)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $11.30

Deterra Royalties (DRR)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.75

Electro Optic Systems Holdings (EOS)

• Retained at speculative buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $12.95

Evolution Mining (EVN)

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $12.80

Golden Horse Minerals (GHM)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.50

Genesis Minerals (GMD)

• Initiated at buy at Bank of America; Price Target: $8.50

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $10.80

GPT Group (GPT)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.13

Hansen Technologies (HSN)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $7.20

IDP Education (IEL)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $8.05

IGO (IGO)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $8.50

Imdex (IMD)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $4.65

• Upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS; Price Target: $4.70

Immutep (IMM)

• Upgraded to outperform from hold at CLSA; Price Target: $0.20 from $0.95

Lifestyle Communities (LIC)

• Upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $5.60

• Upgraded to neutral from underweight at Jarden; Price Target: $6.25 from $5.75

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $5.80

Liontown (LTR)

• Upgraded to hold from trim at Morgans; Price Target: $1.80 from $2.00

• Upgraded to accumulate from hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.90

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $2.10

MA Financial Group (MAF)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $10.05

Meteoric Resources NL (MEI)

• Retained at speculative buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.40

Mirvac Group (MGR)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.40

Megaport (MP1)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $14.65

Newmont Corporation (NEM)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $225.00

Northern Star Resources (NST)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $35.00

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $27.50 from $33.40

• Retained at underweight at Jarden; Price Target: $16.60 from $17.00

• Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $33.00 from $35.00

• Downgraded to neutral from overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $24.00 from $39.00

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $25.00 from $32.00

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $28.00 from $31.50

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $28.00

Northern Minerals (NTU)

• Retained at speculative buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.05

NexGen Energy (Canada) (NXG)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $21.00

NEXTDC (NXT)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $22.55

Paladin Energy (PDN)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $14.45

PLS Group (PLS)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $4.95

Pro Medicus (PME)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $275.00

PMET Resources Inc (PMT)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $0.80

Perpetual (PPT)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $19.70

Perseus Mining (PRU)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.50

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $7.15

Rio Tinto (RIO)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $146.00

Ramelius Resources (RMS)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $5.20

Regis Resources (RRL)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $9.50

South32 (S32)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.75

SiteMinder (SDR)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $7.95

Sandfire Resources (SFR)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $16.20

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $18.05

Stockland (SGP)

• Downgraded to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $5.50 from $6.60

Sonic Healthcare (SHL)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $21.10 from $21.80

Syrah Resources (SYR)

• Downgraded to neutral from overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $0.30 from $0.34

Titomic (TTT)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.50

Vault Minerals (VAU)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $7.60

Viridis Mining and Minerals (VMM)

• Retained at speculative buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.70

WEB Travel Group (WEB)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $6.15

Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $9.80

Scans