ASX 200 Live Today - Monday, 16th March

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Monday, March 16. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

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New updates

ASX 200 eyes year-to-date lows

[2:14 pm] The ASX 200 is down 0.49% and on track to close at its lowest level since early December. A few defensive pockets held up relatively well, including Staples (+0.69%), Energy (+0.68%), Utilities (+0.47%) and Financials (+0.42%), though Materials (-2.70%) and Tech (-1.28%) were the notable laggards. The mining sector faces a tough backdrop, with deteriorating economic growth prospects compounded by cost inflation across diesel, electricity, labour, logistics and explosives. The Aussie 10-year yield continues to hover around the 5.0% mark, sitting at 4.98%, while Iran-related headlines show no signs of resolution and continue to fuel inflation concerns and the prospect of a stagflation outcome.

Through all of this, the market is still down just 1.6% year-to-date. Despite the relentlessly negative newsflow, there is a case that the market is being propped up by other themes and that investors, fearful of missing the next leg higher once the conflict clears, are reluctant to sell aggressively.

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China's economy beats forecasts heading into 2026

[2:03 pm] China's January-February data surprised to the upside across most key indicators, though the Iran conflict has since materially shifted the external backdrop.

• Industrial production rose 6.3% year-on-year, the fastest pace since September and ahead of the 5.9% forecast

• Retail sales grew 2.8%, beating the 2.5% consensus estimate and accelerating sharply from 0.9% in December

• Fixed asset investment unexpectedly expanded 1.8%, a notable turnaround after contracting for the first time on record in 2025, though property investment still fell 11.1% year-on-year (better than the 19.3% decline forecast)

• Urban unemployment ticked up to 5.3%, worse than every economist forecast in the Bloomberg survey, a soft spot amid otherwise resilient headline figures

• Beijing has adopted a cautious policy stance, choosing to observe how the geopolitical situation unfolds rather than deploying new stimulus, despite setting its lowest growth target since 1991 at 4.5%-5%

Source: Bloomberg

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Energy stocks near two-year high

[1:18 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index is up 0.8% today and 24.5% year-to-date, now trading at its highest level since May 2024. Geopolitically driven oil rallies have historically been a tough catalyst for energy stocks to price in, but the severity of the Iran/Middle East disruption appears to be giving the sector enough conviction to push higher.

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IEA emergency oil release to flow to Asia immediately

[1:15 pm] The IEA is moving quickly to deploy its record 400 million barrel stockpile release, with Asian buyers first in line as the region faces the most acute exposure to Middle East supply disruptions.

• Asian buyers will receive supplies from 16 March, while Europe and the Americas will not see barrels available until end of March, with no update provided on the pace of those releases

• Around 72% of committed volumes are crude oil, though the IEA's executive director cautioned that reopening the Strait of Hormuz remains essential for a return to stable flows

• European refined product markets are already under severe stress, with jet fuel closing above $220/bbl and diesel futures north of $150/bbl on Friday

Source: Bloomberg

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Japan turns to Australia to plug LNG gap

[1:10 pm] Japan's industry minister has made a direct appeal to Australia to boost LNG output as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and disruption to Qatari facilities expose the country's heavy energy dependence on the Middle East.

• Japan relies on the Middle East for around 95% of its crude oil and 11% of its LNG imports, with the Strait of Hormuz closure cutting off the 6% of LNG that transits the waterway

• Some 20% of global LNG supply is offline following the shutdown of Qatar Energy facilities, with Qatar's energy minister warning it could take months to return to normal deliveries

• Australia, which supplies approximately 40% of Japan's LNG imports, was described by Japan's industry minister as the "lifeline of energy security" for Japan and the broader region

• The Scarborough and Barossa fields will soon begin production, boosting output from Western Australian gas fields and adding to Australia's export capacity

Source: Reuters

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China's new home prices mark 32nd straight month of decline

[12:47 pm] Beijing's property downturn shows no signs of stabilising, with price falls broadening and deepening despite ongoing policy support efforts.

• New home prices across 70 cities fell 3.2% year-on-year in February, the steepest drop since June 2025 and the 32nd consecutive month of contraction

• Declines persisted across major cities including Shenzhen (-5.5%), Guangzhou (-5.1%), Tianjin (-4.2%), Chongqing (-3.8%) and Beijing (-2.3%), with most cities seeing declines worsen modestly from January

• Shanghai remained the sole outlier among major cities, holding steady at 4.2% growth, unchanged from the prior month

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Stocks with the largest increase/decrease in short interest

[12:45 pm] Here are the stocks experiencing the largest week-on-week increase in short interest.

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Hedge fund crude oil positioning at multi-year highs

[12:01 pm] Hedge fund long positions on Brent crude surged 65,438 lots in the week ending 10 March to 351,032, the highest since February 2020 and up 966% since December in the biggest six-year build on record. CTAs are now 100% long in both WTI and Brent futures simultaneously, the first time this has occurred in US crude since September 2021, while bullish bets on WTI have climbed to an eight-month high per CFTC data.

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China's consumer spending on track for worst start to a year outside Covid

[11:59 am] China's economic data dump will take place at 1:00 pm AEDT, spanning industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment and unemployment rate.

According to Bloomberg, domestic demand is weakening further heading into 2026, complicating Beijing's stated goal of rebalancing the economy toward consumption.

• Retail sales for the first two months of 2026 are forecast to have risen just 2.1% year-on-year, which would be the lowest reading on record outside of the Covid shock in early 2020

• Fixed asset investment is forecast to be down 4.2% year-on-year, with property investment contracting approximately 19.3%, extending the unprecedented slump seen in 2025

• Policy support is being scaled back rather than expanded, with reduced subsidies for its flagship consumer trade-in programme to 250bn yuan from 300bn yuan last year, and pension benefit increases were left unchanged, disappointing economists who had expected a meaningful hike to reduce precautionary savings

• China's annual growth target has been lowered to 4.5%-5%, the least ambitious goal since 1991, with authorities signalling greater tolerance for a slower expansion as they seek to limit debt-driven investment

Source: Bloomberg

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WTI update: Crude back below US$100

[11:57 am] WTI opened 1.6% higher this morning and rallied as much as 3.1% to a high of US$102.44 a barrel. It's currently reversed back into negative territory, down 1.6% to US$97.66.

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Viva Energy and Ampol in focus

[11:28 am] Ampol's Lytton plant in Brisbane and Viva Energy's Geelong plant in Victoria might start to look like critical infrastructure as we begin to scramble for refined fuel, including petrol, diesel and jet fuel.

The value of domestic refining capacity was on full display during Russia's invasion of Ukraine, when Lytton's refinery margins surged 215% from US$9.2 in Q1 2022 to US$29 the following quarter, with first-half EBITDA jumping 475% year-on-year to $475.6 million.

Ampol's Lytton Refinery key metrics (Source: Ampol's 2025 results presentation)

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ASX 200 highs and lows

[11:00 am] 31 S&P/ASX 200 stocks hit a fresh 52-week low last week, mostly from rate-sensitive/consumer facing sectors like Financials, Real Estate and Discretionary.

• Energy: 3 High, 0 Low

• Health Care: 1 High, 4 Low

• Staples: 1 High, 2 Low

• Financials: 0 High, 7 Low

• Real Estate: 0 High, 7 Low

• Discretionary: 0 High, 5 Low

• Industrials: 0 High, 4 Low

• Materials: 0 High, 1 Low

• Technology: 0 High, 1 Low

• Utilities: 0 High, 0 Low

• Telecommunications: 0 High, 0 Low

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Immutep bounce after Friday's ~90% crash

[10:48 am] Immutep is trading 31% higher after falling as much as 92.9% last Friday, after the company announced that its TACTI-004 Phase III study would be discontinued following a futility review. This was the company's lead product seeking to treat patients with advanced/metastatic non-small cell lung cancer.

Immutep traded below its cash position on Friday, when you consider the following balance sheet items:

• Cash and cash equivalents: $72.7m

• Bank term deposits: $26.4m

• Dr. Reddy's licensing deal upfront payment received January 2026: $29.9m

• Total liabilities: $47m (including $25.8m unearned revenue from Dr. Reddy's)

At a market cap of around $50 million on Friday, this meant it was trading at around negative $32 million in enterprise value.

Management said that ending the study will significantly lower cash burn, but without a clear development path moving forward.

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ASX 200 at fresh year-to-date lows

[10:29 am] ASX 200 down 0.48% in early trade, falling below the 9-Mar low, where the index dipped 2.85%. Breadth is soft (but could be worse), with 121 constituents trading lower. A few pockets of resilience in today's session, with classic defensives like Staples, Telcos and Utilities trading 0.3-0.4% higher. The Materials Index is trading sharply lower amid a relatively broad decline in commodity prices (ex-energy and agri) overnight. Copper prices fell 2.4% to US$5.7/lb, gold down 1.2% to US$5,018/oz, aluminium down 2.5% to US$3,426/t and nickel fell 2.7% to US$17,250/t. There's also the concern about how rising energy prices will impact costs and margins (and not just higher diesel prices, but also crack spreads, electricity prices, labour logistics, explosive costs and more).

ASX 200 sectors (Source: Market Index)

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Gold stocks smashed

[10:18 am] Gold stocks are trading sharply lower this morning, with the All Ords Gold Index down 4.2% to the lowest since 10 December, 2025. The index has fallen for eight of the last ten sessions, down 25.2%.

All Ords Gold Index daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

Gold prices continued to falter overnight, down 1.2% to US$5,018/oz and continued to slip this morning, currently down 0.6% to US$4,982.

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RBA set for back-to-back hike as Iran oil shock forces the pace on inflation

[10:15 am] The energy price shock from the Iran conflict has accelerated the RBA's tightening timeline, with markets now pricing a 70% chance of a hike this week, according to Morgan Stanley.

• The RBA is forecast to lift the cash rate to 4.1% this week, making it the first developed market central bank to hike back-to-back in this cycle

• The macro backdrop is turning contractionary as the hikes are expected to slow consumption, push unemployment higher (forecast to tick up to 4.2% in February labour force data), and this tightening bias is likely to be reinforced by the upcoming Federal Budget

• For equities, Morgan Stanley flags the key risks as capped index returns, de-rating pressure on banks, margin risk for consumer-facing companies, activity risk in housing, and AUD upside weighing on translated offshore earnings

• The ASX 200 is not cheap at 17x 12-month forward P/E, well above the long-term average of 14.8x, leaving the market exposed to a de-rating if earnings growth disappoints

• Consensus EPS growth estimates of 13.9% for FY26 and 9.4% for FY27 look increasingly at risk given the deterioration in both consumer and business sentiment observed in March and February surveys respectively

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Top ASX 200 gainers

[10:09 am] Reliance is rallying off the back of a buyback announcement, Woodside is trading at February 2024 levels, while a few odd names like REA Group and ASX buck the trend.

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Top ASX 200 losers

[10:09 am] Gold stocks have sold off across the board after gold prices slipped 1.2% overnight to a near one month low.

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Lynas signs rare earth supply deal with US Department of War

[10:05 am] Lynas has secured a binding offtake arrangement with the US government, providing revenue certainty over four years while supporting American rare earth supply chain resilience.

• The US Department of War will allocate approximately US$96m to purchase Light and Heavy Rare Earth oxide products from Lynas over a four-year period, with a floor price of US$110/kg for NdPr oxide

• The agreement replaces the original arrangement, which was modified following significant uncertainty over whether Lynas would proceed with construction of a Heavy Rare Earth processing facility in Seadrift, Texas

• Discussions are ongoing between Lynas and the DoW regarding further supply arrangements, including for Heavy Rare Earth oxides, suggesting potential for additional offtake beyond the current deal

Company page: Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

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Jupiter Mines declares interim dividend

[9:50 am] Jupiter has declared an interim dividend of 0.55 cents per share (unfranked), with a record date of 23 March 2026 and payment on 2 April 2026. The payout is underpinned by Tshipi declaring a ZAR200m interim dividend, of which Jupiter's share amounts to approximately $8.0m net of withholding tax, alongside $4.0m in marketing profits for the period.

Company page: Jupiter Mines (JMS)

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Perpetual sells Wealth Management business to Bain Capital for $500m

[9:46 am] Perpetual has entered a binding agreement to divest its Wealth Management business, freeing up capital to reduce debt and reinvest in its remaining Asset Management and Corporate Trust operations.

• Upfront cash consideration of $500m at completion, with a potential additional payment based on pre-completion performance of the advice business, plus an earn-out of up to $50m tied to post-completion performance of the Accounting and Wealth operations, tested two years after completion

• Perpetual will licence the "Perpetual Wealth" and "Perpetual Private" brands to the buyer for 15 years while retaining full ownership of the "Perpetual" brand

• Net cash proceeds will be directed toward debt reduction and organic growth investment in the Asset Management and Corporate Trust businesses

• Completion is subject to FIRB and ACCC approvals and the separation of the Wealth Management business from the broader group, with both parties targeting completion towards end of 2026

Company page: Perpetual (PPT)

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China eases BHP iron ore restrictions but dispute remains unresolved

[9:43 am] China's state-backed iron ore buyer CMRG has offered temporary relief to steel mills sitting on BHP Jimblebar stockpiles, though the broader commercial dispute between the two parties is far from over.

• CMRG is allowing some steelmakers to move stockpiled Jimblebar iron ore from ports to their factories, with a window of approximately one week to do so, though the reprieve does not extend to traders

• The move follows a 6% jump in Singapore iron ore futures last week, the most in a year, after CMRG informally asked mills to avoid buying BHP's Newman fines grade, sparking fears of a broader ban on BHP cargoes

• Prices slumped in after-hours trading Friday after the temporary easing was communicated, suggesting the initial rally was largely driven by panic buying ahead of an anticipated wider ban

• The underlying dispute stems from CMRG's September ban on Jimblebar blend fines over a disagreement on long-term supply contracts, which has since been expanded to cover all new dollar-denominated BHP products and additional grades

Source: Bloomberg | Company page: BHP Group (BHP)

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Reliance Worldwide announces additional $120m on-market buyback

[9:39 am] RWC is returning excess capital to shareholders after strong cash generation pushed its leverage ratio below the bottom of its target range.

• The $120m on-market buyback is in addition to the ~US$15.3m buyback announced in February

• The buyback is being funded through a combination of cash reserves and available borrowing facilities, with the company expecting to remain comfortably within its 1.5x to 2.5x net debt to EBITDA target range on completion

• The move reflects RWC's leverage ratio falling below the bottom end of its target range, driven by strong cash flow generation over the past two years despite subdued end markets

The stock is down 25% year-to-date trading at levels not seen since December 2022.

Company page: Reliance Worldwide (RWC)

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Perseus Mining sells Meyas Sand gold project for $260m

[9:31 am] Perseus Mining has agreed to divest its 70% interest in the Meyas Sand Gold Project to Matrix Resources (Zhejiang) in a clean cash transaction that will bolster an already strong balance sheet.

• Total consideration of $260m, comprising a $10m deposit received on signing and $250m payable on completion, targeted for 22 April

• Proceeds expected to further strengthen Perseus's balance sheet with the company flagging consideration of additional capital returns to shareholders

• The divestment will have no impact on Perseus's reported group JORC resource and reserve estimates, as Meyas Sand had been classified as a foreign estimate

Company page: Perseus Mining (PRU)

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US strikes Iran's Kharg Island

[9:23 am] US forces hit 90 military targets on Iran's key oil export hub, leaving oil facilities intact but warning they remain on the table. This took place over the weekend, with Brent opening Monday's session ~2% higher to US$101.50 a barrel.

• Kharg Island handles 90% of Iran's crude oil exports and generated ~$53bn in net oil export revenues in 2025, equivalent to roughly 11% of Iran's GDP

• Oil infrastructure was deliberately spared in the strike, though Trump explicitly flagged it could be targeted if Iran interferes with free passage through the Strait of Hormuz

• Iran has threatened to destroy all oil and gas infrastructure in the region belonging to the US and its allies if its own energy assets are hit, with a drone attack already igniting a fire at a UAE oil terminal on Saturday

• Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies and one-third of global fertiliser supply flows, has been disrupted, pushing oil prices back above $100/barrel

• The US eased sanctions on Russian oil in response to the supply shock, while Trump flagged that gas prices would fall sharply once the conflict concludes

Source: CNBC

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JPMorgan warns oil supply cuts to near 12 million bpd

[9:05 am] JPMorgan sees the physical oil market moving into severe deficit as the Strait of Hormuz blockage compounds Gulf producer shutdowns, with refined product shortages set to ripple across Asia and Europe within days.

• Supply cutbacks are on track to reach nearly 12 million bpd by end of next week, with production shut-ins already at 6.5 million bpd, roughly 1 million bpd above JPMorgan's prior estimates

• Global supply is running approximately 7 million bpd below demand, driving acute shortages in diesel, jet fuel, LPG and naphtha

• Asian supplies of refined products could run dry this week, with Europe-bound flows likely to halt next week as new shipments from the Gulf have largely ceased

• Europe is particularly exposed given its heavy reliance on Middle Eastern diesel and jet fuel following its ban on Russian imports, and roughly 2 million bpd of Middle Eastern refining capacity is effectively offline due to export constraints and infrastructure attacks

Source: Reuters

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Iran war threatens global food supply

[9:04 am] Disruptions to Middle East energy flows are squeezing agricultural fuel supplies across Asia, Europe and Australia, raising the risk of delayed planting and higher food prices.

• Australian grain farmers are already facing rationed fuel deliveries ahead of winter wheat and barley sowing in Western Australia, with the National Farmers' Federation warning some acreage could go unplanted

• In Bangladesh, government diesel rationing is limiting farmers to 2 litres per day when rice irrigation requires at least 3, putting the country's largest rice crop, the Boro harvest, at risk

• European farmers are also feeling the pinch, with German farm diesel costs up an extra €30 per 100 litres and Romanian farm diesel prices up roughly 25% since the war began

• Higher fuel costs are increasing the price of harvesting, processing and transporting produce, with analysts warning of longer-term food inflation passed through to consumers

• Rabobank's farm-input analyst in Sydney cautioned this is unlikely to be short-lived and longer-term input cost inflation is expected, with flow-on effects to consumer food prices

Source: Bloomberg

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Treasury volatility hits nine-month high

[9:00 am] Bond markets are repricing for a higher-for-longer rate environment as the Iran war drives oil prices up and inflation expectations with them.

• The ICE BofA Move Index, the bond market's "fear gauge," climbed to its highest level since June, with 30-year Treasury yields at a one-month high and traders pulling back bets on any Fed rate cuts in 2026

• One-year US inflation swaps have risen 3% and two-year yields are at their highest since August, signalling markets are pricing in meaningfully stronger price pressures ahead

• Major institutions are shifting to a stagflation framework, with BlackRock noting risks of a stagflationary shock, Loomis Sayles has flagged US deficit risks, and Morgan Stanley's chief fixed-income strategist expects elevated volatility "for a considerable period of time"

• Bloomberg's Treasury return gauge has nearly wiped out all gains for the year, with global bond markets from the US to Japan and Australia selling off in tandem as investors price in the possibility of central banks hiking rather than cutting

Source: Bloomberg

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Meta set to cut 20% of its workforce

[8:55 am] Meta is reportedly considering payoffs that could affect up to 20% of its workforce, according to Reuters. These layoffs are set to offset some of the company's massive $600 billion investment in AI infrastructure through 2028.

• Meta is reportedly planning to cut over 20% of its workforce (~15,800 roles), though the company has pushed back on the reporting as speculative

• The company's Avocado model has been delayed until May or later after underperforming rivals, with Meta reportedly in talks to license Google's Gemini, which would effectively concede defeat in building its own frontier model

• Meta is pressing ahead with AI spending, targeting capex of up to $135bn in 2026, an 88% increase year-on-year, with $600bn earmarked for data centre buildout over time

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US economy losing steam

[8:53 am] Weak consumer spending, rising inflation and a cooling labour market are converging just as the Middle East conflict adds fresh pressure on the US economy.

• Real consumer spending rose just 0.1% in January (in line with ests)

• Q4 GDP was revised sharply lower as a government shutdown, slower consumption and declining exports weighed on growth

• Core PCE inflation came in at 0.4% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year (in line with ests), the highest annual reading in nearly two years, driven by services prices and complicating the path for Fed rate cuts

• If oil settles above US$83 for much of the year, energy cost increases would fully offset the average household's gains from enlarged tax refunds, per Bloomberg Economics

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Oil surges past US$100 as US-Iran war escalates

[8:51 am] Both the US and Iran's new supreme leader took hardened positions on day 13 of the conflict, with no end in sight and energy markets absorbing the biggest oil supply shock on record.

• Brent crude rose over 9% to close above US$100/bbl for the first time since August 2022, with US crude futures at their highest in more than three years

• The IEA warned the current disruption is the largest in oil market history, with the conflict hitting 7.5% of global output as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked

• Iran's new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed and threatened to open new fronts if US and Israeli attacks continue, removing near-term hopes of de-escalation

• Attempts to dampen prices have so far failed, including the coordinated IEA release of 400 million barrels and a second US authorisation allowing Russian oil cargoes in transit to be purchased did little to calm markets

• The conflict is broadening, with strikes hitting Dubai and Kuwait, three commercial vessels struck in the Arabian Gulf in 24 hours, and the US revealing the first six days of the campaign cost over $11.3bn

Source: Bloomberg

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S&P 500 gives back early gains

[8:50 am] A rather weak finish to the week for US indices, with the S&P 500 (-0.61%) closing at session lows despite rallying as much as 0.91% in early trade. Much of this reversal was attributed to a lack of clarity around an Iran de-escalation, compounded by reports that the Pentagon is deploying an expeditionary unit to the Middle East.

S&P 500 daily chart (Source: TradingView)

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Good morning!

[8:30 am] ASX 200 futures are down 61 pts (-0.71%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

• Local sharemarket set to undercut last Monday's low and potentially hit a fresh year-to-date low

• Major US benchmarks lower amid hawkish Iran takeaways – no clear path to de-escalation, continued upward pressure on oil prices, energy supply (as well as fertilisers and helium) remain under pressure

• US bombed Iran's Kharg Island, a key energy hub, over the weekend, with oil prices likely to gap up 4-5% at the open this morning