Evening Wrap: ASX 200 rebounds as mining stocks rally, iron ore, lithium and rare earths lead the charge

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 64.0 points higher, up 0.74%.

The ASX 200 bounced as easing oil prices and strong US corporate earnings restored risk appetite, with the materials sector leading a broad recovery as investors hunted for value in beaten-down resources stocks. Ten of eleven sectors finished higher.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap. Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 64.0 points higher at 8,729.8, 0.74% from its session low and 0.39% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers beat decliners by a convincing 208 to 77. For the week, the XJO finished down 56.7 points or 0.7% lower, 1.1% from its intraweek low and 0.7% from its intraweek high.

Materials (XMJ) (+2.1%) staged a strong reversal despite base metals prices on the London Metals Exchange and in Asian futures trade remaining largely flat — a reminder that in this market, sentiment can move sectors independently of commodity leads.

Iron ore stocks were the primary engine, with prices holding near two-year highs. Rio Tinto (RIO) (+2.7%), BHP (BHP) (+2.3%), and Champion Iron (CIA) (+3.9%) all gained. Base metals names also rebounded, with Nickel Industries (NIC) (+2.9%), Sandfire Resources (SFR) (+2.9%), and Alcoa (AAI) (+2.4%) all higher.

The Gold Sub-Index (XGD) (+1.0%) advanced alongside strength in gold equities, despite COMEX gold futures falling 0.5% in Asian trade to US$4,606 per ounce. The move reflected a recovery in sentiment after recent selling rather than fresh price leads. Capricorn Metals (CMM) (+3.9%), Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN) (+2.9%), and Newmont (NEM) (+2.2%) were the standout movers.

Consumer Staples (XSJ) (+1.1%) rebounded strongly after Thursday's pounding, led by Coles (COL) (+3.7%) after its quarterly supermarket sales update — like-for-like sales of 3.6% came in ahead of the 3.5% consensus, and unlike Woolworths (WOW) (-0.7%) the day prior. Agricultural and alcohol stocks also bounced, with The A2 Milk Company (A2M) (+2.7%), GrainCorp (GNC) (+2.1%), and Endeavour Group (EDV) (+2.1%) all firmer. continued to slide.

Real Estate (XPJ) (+1.1%) gained as benchmark bond yields pared back from Thursday's spike, making the sector's income streams more attractive by comparison. Centuria Capital (CNI) (+4.7%), Goodman Group (GMG) (+1.3%), and Ingenia Communities (INA) (+1.5%) all advanced.

Health Care (XHJ) (+0.2%) managed a rare positive finish but remained a very mixed bag. Cochlear (COH) (+5.1%) and Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX) (+3.8%) both bounced after recent heavy selling. ResMed (RMD) (-3.5%) and Ramsay Health Care (RHC) (-1.8%) were notable exceptions on the downside.

Energy (XEJ) finished flat as the oil and gas cohort ebbed from recent highs even as the spot price of Brent crude held near cycle highs. Woodside Energy (WDS) (-1.3%), Karoon Energy (KAR) (-0.9%), and Beach Energy (BPT) (-0.4%) all dipped. Coal stocks continued their winning run — Whitehaven Coal (WHC) (+2.6%), New Hope Corp. (NHC) (+0.9%), and Yancoal Australia (YAL) (+0.5%) all gained — with SGX Australian Premium Coking Coal futures rising 1.0% to $235.25/t.

Financials (XFJ) (-0.3%) was the only sector to finish lower, likely weighed by a partial reversal of Thursday's mysterious late buy order alongside a poorly received first-half result from ANZ. ANZ (ANZ) (-2.8%) led the declines. Commonwealth Bank (CBA) (-0.4%), Westpac (WBC) (-0.1%), and National Australia Bank (NAB) (-0.1%) also edged lower.

Lithium stocks continued their strong run, with Liontown Resources (LTR) (+12.3%) surging to a record high. IGO (IGO) (+3.4%) and Pilbara Minerals (PLS) (+2.0%) were also firmer, catching up to recent strong commodity price leads after Chinese lithium futures markets were closed for the May Day holiday.

Rare earths and critical minerals stocks rebounded from heavy selling on Thursday, again with few fundamental drivers — swinging sentiment appeared to do the heavy lifting. Iluka Resources (ILU) (+3.5%) and Iperionx (IPX) (+9.8%) were both stronger.

Likewise, uranium stocks continued their rollercoaster week, bouncing sharply after Thursday's drubbing as Cameco and Kazatomprom both rose overnight — the latter releasing a production update that missed expectations, stoking hopes that leaner supply could bolster the uranium price. NexGen Energy (NXG) (+6.3%), Paladin Energy (PDN) (+3.9%), Bannerman Energy (BMN) (+3.7%), and Boss Energy (BOE) (+2.5%) all gained.

Today's best ASX 300 gainers

Today's worst ASX 300 losers

ChartWatch

Nasdaq Composite Index

Analysis

Alright move on. There’s nothing to see here. Please disperse. Nothing to see here, please...

It will make sense when you get to the end! Sure, the Comp's sending of fireworks, but so what!? There's nothing to see here! 🎇

It was just another day on the Comp in a bull market. Thursday’s candle demonstrates absolutely everything we’d expect from a market whose price is firmly controlled by the demand side. ✅

With little supply side intent. ✅

It started up solidly, and closed only a little up from there — but that’s not the important bit. Nope, the important bit is what happened in between. That long downward pointing shadow. It’s one of my “fingerprints of excess demand”, remember?

Nothing goes up in a straight line — there are invariably going to be pullbacks even in the strongest bull market. And that’s what the Comp did after that stronger open, some of the supply side decided the getting was good and decided to take profits.

At one point, the price even moved below the last two sessions’ low. But the below average volume for the day tells us there was never really any force behind this move.

And then demand kicked in to BTD — a classic bull market trait.

As the gains grew, and grew, so too did the desire among those with cash to enter = FOMO = another classic bull market trait.

Equally, the supply side realised there's no reason for concern, nor is there any reason to lose anymore of the risk which is so vital to retain in a rising market. They decided to HOFU = another classic bull market trait. Again, the below average volume shows us that demand was bidding up the price into very little supply side oppositon.

BTD + FOMO + HOFU = 🅿️⬆️

And the 🅿️ closed very close to the session's high indicating that those conditions prevailed into the close. Really, the only thing that prevented the demand side from continuing their quest to convert cash into stock was… ding ding ding 🛎️! The market closed!

This means there's a good chance, you might even say a MOTN chance, that the next session will at least start in an environment of excess demand.

But that’s just one candle. When we combine it with everything else: ST & LT trends = ⬆️ & ⬆️, price action = rising peaks and rising troughs 📈, plus a predominance of demand side candles (i.e., those with white bodies and or downward pointing shadows) — we can be confident that for now, D > S.

At this moment. Indeed, anything can happen tomorrow. We might see S ⬆️ so that D = S. If that occurred, we’d likely see 🅿️➡️. Heck, S could ⬆️ so much that we might even see S > D. In that case, we’d likely see 🅿️⬇️.

Whatever will be will be. We’ll do the work each day (that’s the Analyse bit!), trust the MOTN outcome (that’s the Accept bit!), and then just do what we’re programmed to do: Act accordingly by managing our risk. 💯

View

FRP (RP = Risk Position — it reflects my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in US stocks. So 1/2RP is 50%, 2/3RP is 67% and FRP is 100% 🪣). I don't know what's going to happen next, only that right now, the chart above remains a picture of excess demand.

Key levels

There are no key supply zones to contend with. The old all-time high supply zone of 23722-24020 will likely act as a short term zone of demand, however the short-term trend ribbon (presently 23503-23895) is now the key zone of demand. If the price closes back below this range, the supply-side is very likely back in control of the Comp's price.

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Analysis

It had to happen eventually, right?

Yes, 2 x 1980's video throwbacks in the same Evening Wrap!!! Hey — it's Friday! 😉

Better late than never, huh? We finally snagged ourself an up day! 🥳

Of course, US stocks needed to make another record high to provide us enough impetus to snap the prevailing 8-day losing streak. I can only imagine how miserable the folks over at the AFR were today not being able to print a headline with a '9' in it!

8 down days, 9, 26, whatever... it's irrelevant what the number is — only how much the index is down over the period. And over the last 8 trading sessions prior to this one, the damage was modest compared to the rally from 8262-9022 that preceded it — but most importantly — 6 of those 8 down days sported decent downward pointing shadows.

= It was somewhat of a fighting retreat... at no point was it a wholesale demand side wipe out / showing of supply side dominance.

Anyways, that's why I never banged on about 'the streak' here. I suspect the folks at the AFR don't read candlesticks, though! 😉 So they probably won't put in their evening wrap that today's white-bodied showing on the Old Tin Pot demonstrated a return to excess demand, but it was also short of convincing.

It didn't close on its high 👎. The below average showing on the Optimised True Range ("OTR" in the chart) and volume indicators shows it wasn't a particularly large showing of motivation (via below average OTR) and force (via below average volume) by the demand side 👎. And it did little to properly 'right the ship' in terms of moving the OTP back above key potential zones of supply like the long- and short-term trend ribbons 👎.

So. for me, there remains some degree of scepticism that today's rally marks the start of a substantial shift in market sentiment. It's a decent start, granted — but confirmation is required:

• ⏹️ At least another confirming strong demand side candle — preferably above average on the OTR to signal above average demand side motivation, and preferably above average on volume to signal above average demand side engagement plus constructive supply side removal.

• ⏹️ A return to rising peaks and rising troughs to confirm a return to FOMO + HOFU + BTD.

• ⏹️ A close back above the long- and short-term trend ribbons to signal the balance of probability has meaningfully shifted back to demand side control of the OTPs price.

Until we can check each of those three boxes, I think we can view today's performance on the OTP with only cautious optimism. The Titanic still has some work to do before she sails again! 🚢

View

I remain 1/2RP 🪣 on the OTP (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in Australian stocks is 50%).

Key levels

9022 is the key point of supply. Beyond that, it's the 9201, the all time high. The OTP is below the short-term trend ribbon (presently 8780-8782) — definitely not a good look! It also must reclaim the long term trend ribbon (presently 8686-8861) to stave off a retracement back to the 8262-8379 lows.

(Glossary of acronyms! Old Tin Pot (OTP): S&P/ASX 200 | MOTN: More Often Than Not | FOMO: Fear Of Missing Out | HOFU: Holding On For Upside | BTD: Buy The Dip | STR: Sell The Rally | RP: Risk Position)

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major economic data releases in our time zone today

Saturday

• 11:30 USA April Institute for Supply Management ("ISM") PMI

  • Manufacturing: 53.1 forecast vs 52.7 in March

  • Manufacturing prices: 80.0 forecast vs 78.3 in March

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +25.9% LTR Pharma (LTP) - interim data from its Spontan Phase 2 study reinforced the safety and consistent pharmacokinetic profile of its nasal-delivery erectile dysfunction drug across age ranges, satisfying a pre-IND FDA requirement; the company highlighted the product's 10-minute activation period and strong safety profile in those over 65

• +8.9% European Lithium (EUR) - Morgan Stanley disclosed it had become a substantial holder in the company with a 5.44% stake

• +8.0% Novonix (NVX) - completed the sale of its Battery Technology Solutions division to former CEO Chris Burns for a nominal US$1, refocusing entirely on synthetic graphite; Novonix retains a 15% equity stake in Dryve Battery Materials

• +4.7% Mineral Resources (MIN) - formalised agreements with POSCO for the acquisition of a 30% stake in MinRes' operational lithium business under a new incorporated joint venture holding its 50% interests in the Wodgina and Mt Marion mines; completion now expected in the first half of FY27

• +3.7% Coles Group (COL) - supermarket like-for-like sales rose 3.6% against a 3.5% consensus, with total supermarket revenue up 4% year-on-year; the company did not temper earnings expectations, noting a shift toward home-brand products and more at-home meals

Trading lower

• -5.6% SkyCity Entertainment (SKC) - cut FY26 underlying EBITDA guidance to $180–190 million from $190–210 million, citing worsening macroeconomic conditions and higher fuel prices

• -3.5% ResMed (RMD) - third-quarter FY26 revenue of US$1.43 billion and operating income of US$524.8 million both beat FactSet consensus, though the stock fell despite the beat

• -3.5% Inghams Group (ING) - Bell Potter downgraded to Hold and cut its price target to $2.00 from $2.75, citing rising cost pressures in plastics, distribution, and feed costs, alongside signs of softening in foodservice and out-of-home channels

• -2.8% ANZ Group (ANZ) - first-half cash profit of $3.78 billion beat the 4% growth expectation, but net interest income fell 2%, margins slipped to 1.53%, and UBS flagged that the quality of the beat raises fresh questions about the bank's growth trajectory

• -2.4% Sequoia Financial (SEQ) - terminated its agreement to sell InterPrac Financial Planning to Conquest Investment Partners for $50,000 after the buyer failed to meet conditions required for completion

• -1.3% Woodside Energy (WDS) - Reuters reported the gas giant is struggling to attract offtake customers in the US, having secured only a single long-term contract while asking for a premium over US competitors

Broker Moves

ARN Media (A1N)

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $0.20

ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $40.30

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $36.50

Aroa Biosurgery (ARX)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.12 from $0.85

Adveritas (AV1)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.18 from $0.20

Artrya (AYA)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $6.10

BETR Entertainment (BBT)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.35 from $0.41

Betmakers Technology Group (BET)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.37 from $0.38

Bega Cheese (BGA)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $7.75

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.70 from $6.00

Boss Energy (BOE)

• Retained at buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $2.10 from $2.30

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $2.50 from $2.45

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $1.60

• Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $1.50 from $1.60

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.40 from $1.50

• Retained at underperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $1.10 from $1.15

Bubs Australia (BUB)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.14 from $0.18

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.15

Camplify Holdings (CHL)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.70 from $0.78

Champion Iron (CIA)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $5.00 from $5.55

• Retained at hold at CLSA; Price Target: $4.90 from $5.60

Coles Group (COL)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $23.00

Computershare (CPU)

• Upgraded to neutral from underweight at Jarden; Price Target: $31.00

Capstone Copper Corp. (CSC)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $16.40 from $16.30

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $15.70 from $15.40

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $15.00

Cedar Woods Properties (CWP)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $9.65 from $10.20

Catalyst Metals (CYL)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $15.13 from $15.24

Electro Optic Systems Holdings (EOS)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $10.40 from $9.70

• Retained at speculative buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $12.95

Fluence Corporation (FLC)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.11

Generation Development Group (GDG)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.40 from $7.00

Helia Group (HLI)

• Upgraded to hold from underperform at Jefferies; Price Target: $4.90

HUB24 (HUB)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $120.00 from $126.00

Inghams Group (ING)

• Downgraded to hold from buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.00 from $2.75

Jupiter Mines . (JMS)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.33

Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN)

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $10.30

Liontown (LTR)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.65 from $2.42

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $1.65

• Retained at negative at E&P; Price Target: $1.45

• Retained at underweight at Jarden; Price Target: $0.70 from $0.65

• Downgraded to neutral from overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $2.10 from $2.05

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.20 from $1.80

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $2.90 from $2.20

Microba Life Sciences (MAP)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.12 from $0.13

Mineral Resources (MIN)

• Retained at accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $71.00 from $67.00

Metals X (MLX)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.60

Mesoblast (MSB)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.45

Nine Entertainment Co. Holdings (NEC)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $0.97

NIB Holdings (NHF)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.10

Noumi (NOU)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.18

Netwealth Group (NWL)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $33.00 from $35.00

News Corporation (NWS)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $56.00 from $65.00

NEXTDC (NXT)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $19.10 from $18.60

Peninsula Energy (PEN)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.35 from $1.53

Pantoro Gold (PNR)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $6.29 from $6.53

South32 (S32)

• Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $5.25

• Retained at overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $4.80 from $5.10

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.50 from $5.80

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.80 from $5.20

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $4.50 from $5.20

Stockland (SGP)

• Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $5.60

• Retained at overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $5.60

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.20

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $4.95

Saluda Medical, Inc. (SLD)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.00 from $2.70

Southern Cross Media Group (SXL)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $0.62

Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX)

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $30.00

• Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $20.50

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $31.00

Titomic (TTT)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.50

Woolworths Group (WOW)

• Downgraded to hold from buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $35.50 from $38.25

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $34.00 from $35.00

• Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $34.60 from $35.30

• Retained at neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $35.00 from $36.30

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $33.50

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $34.40

• Upgraded to accumulate from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $37.30

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $39.00

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $34.50 from $37.25

wrkr (WRK)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.14

Scans