Markets at Midday: ASX 200 snaps an eight-day losing streak

The S&P/ASX 200 is trading 72 pts higher (+0.83%) at noon.

Ah at last – the market's stopped falling after eight straight days of declines. Today's strength was driven by a broad range of factors, including:

• S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 closed at fresh all-time highs overnight

• Strong earnings from Mag-7 names, which highlighted insatiable compute demand and massive capex commitments

• Commodity prices mostly higher overnight after 2-3 days of softness

• ANZ reported an above consensus 1H26 result, though some concerns around revenue weakness

• Coles Q3 update provided some relief to the Staples sector, after Woolworths tumbled 7.7% on Thursday after tweaking its FY26 guidance

Let’s dive in

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Midday market summary

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Today’s big story: Snapping an eight-day losing streak

Phew! The ASX 200 looks set to snap an eight-day losing streak that wiped 3.2% off the index - only the eleventh time this has happened since 1994. If history is any guide, what comes next tends to look pretty good. The below table observes how the market performed after previous losing streaks of eight days or more.

Source: Market Index

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Must read announcements 

• Alvo Minerals (ALV): Premium placement to strategic investors

• Green Technology Metals (GT1): Transformational recapitalisation to fund pathway to FID

• Peak Processing (PKP): A$2.4m raise to fund Q4 FY26 production ramp-up

• Prominence Energy (PRM): $1.56m in firm funding commitments

• RBR Group (RBR): Capital raise

• SRJ Technologies (SRJ): Placement following recent contract awards

Capital raisings

• ANZ Group (ANZ): H1 cash profit beats estimates on cost discipline, returns improvement and higher franking

• Coles Group (COL): Q3 sales beat driven by supermarkets momentum, liquor weakness and eCommerce growth

• Qantas Airways (QAN): Extends capacity cuts into Q1 FY27 amid elevated fuel costs

• ResMed (RMD): Q3 beats on revenue and earnings with margin expansion, CFO to retire

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Thinking out loud: South32 and capex blowouts

On Thursday, South32 tumbled 5.4% after the company announced a massive capex blowout for its Hermosa Taylor zinc-lead-silver project.

• Capex increased by ~53% to $3.3bn

• First production delayed by ~12 months to 2H28

• Nameplate capacity pushed back by ~12 months to FY31

South32 tried to offset this downbeat cost and operational outlook with a resource update, which extended the life of the deposit by 18% to 33 years.

Macquarie has run the ruler on the cost and schedule overruns, resulting in:

• Cut Group FY28-30 earnings estimates by 18%, 18% and 9% respectively, as Hermosa is delayed with higher costs

• Cut South32's target price by 22% to $4.50 to reflect the NPV impact of the update

• "The inflection point now shifts to FY30, when Hermosa is expected to become a net contributor to the group after ~five years of investment. This is ~24 months later than our pre-update expectations."

South32 joins a long list of companies grappling with capex blowouts, such as BHP's Jansen (from US$5bn to US$9bn) and Liontown's Kathleen Valley (more than doubled its initial $500m budget). It's a reminder of just how difficult it is to bring new supply online. For holders and stock pickers, that's a source of frustration/left-field risks, and for the broader resource complex, it's ultimately a bullish signal.

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Intraday winners and losers

Coal, rare earths and defensives catch a bid, while gold stocks give back early gains.

Data as at 11:35 pm AEST, % change measures the move from today's open price

Data as at 11:35 pm AEST, % change measures the move from today's open price

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Broker moves

Boss Energy (BOE)

• Retained at buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $2.10 from $2.30

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $2.50 from $2.45

• Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $1.50 from $1.60

• Retained at underperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $1.10 from $1.15

Champion Iron (CIA)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $5.00 from $5.55

• Retained at hold at CLSA; Price Target: $4.90 from $5.60

Liontown (LTR)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.65 from $2.42

• Retained at negative at E&P; Price Target: $1.45

• Retained at underweight at Jarden; Price Target: $0.70 from $0.65

• Downgraded to neutral from overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $2.10 from $2.05

South32 (S32)

• Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $5.25

• Retained at overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $4.80 from $5.10

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.50 from $5.80

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $4.50 from $5.20

Stockland (SGP)

• Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $5.60

• Retained at overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $5.60

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $4.95

Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX)

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $30.00

• Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $20.50

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $31.00

Woolworths Group (WOW)

• Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $34.60 from $35.30

• Retained at neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $35.00 from $36.30

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $34.50 from $37.25