Evening Wrap: ASX 200 bolstered by tech, health, and consumer stocks, as CXO soars 15% in lithium sector

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 25.2 points higher, up 0.29%.

A second day of gains for Information Technology, Health Care, Consumer Discretionary stocks helped the ASX 200 to a modest rise today, as Resources took a breather. Banks bounced back after their sharp losses yesterday.

Lithium stocks generally continued their strong run of form with Core Lithium (CXO) adding 15% (and receiving a speeding ticket from the ASX in the process). Elsewhere, defence issues like Austal (ASB) and Electro Optic Systems Holdings (EOS) also delivered robust performances.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

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Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 25.2 points higher at 8,720.8, roughly mid-range, 0.31% from its session low and 0.21% from its high. The total session range was a measly 45 points or just 0.5%. Whilst the headline numbers for the benchmark were a little ho-hum, the market breadth in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) showed a second day of confidence as advancers beat decliners by a convincing 190 to 86.

Fund flows: Funky town

You know the drill: “Loser” sectors (Tech, Discretionary, Health) vs “Winner” sectors (Resources) vs “Swing” sector (Banks).

It’s rare during such clear rotations to see all of them up or all of them down — it’s typically Winners gaining at the expense of Losers with the odd “pushback” day where it goes the other way.

Today was one of those pushback days:

• Information Technology (XIJ) (+1.7%) ⬆️

• Health Care (XHJ) (+1.6%) ⬆️

• Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (+1.4%) ⬆️

• Resources (XJR) (-1.0%) ⬇️

So, there’s no surprises in today’s sector rotation shenanigans — but Financials (XFJ) (+0.7%) are interesting… They swung down yesterday, putting a dampener on a 3:1 positive market breadth session, but recovered today, offsetting Resources’ pullback. With the Losers and the Swinger up — it wasn’t a terrible day for the Old Tin Pot.

The Losers fascinate me. That’s two days up — today better than yesterday. Logic suggests they can’t go down forever… Right? 🤔 But that’s where the charts become super useful. We can debate “value” — it lies in the eye of the beholder — but trends, price action, candles and volume... I argue there’s far more objectivity there. My view on the technicals for the Loser sectors: Still too early for me! 😉

I know I give the Old Tin Pot a hard time, but there’s no one keener than me (as a trend follower) to see it sort its you know what out — and rip higher! For this, the big fund managers must bless us with at least a few sessions where all sectors push in the same direction — allowing us to break out of the funk that’s plagued us since the 9116 all-time high set on 21 October (Oof! Feels like forever ago! 🤦).

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

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ChartWatch

Nasdaq Composite Index

Analysis

Wednesday’s candle is what I call a “tickle” of the supply zone.

Remember: zones of demand and supply that we peg on our charts are perceived until proven.

We think there’s going to be supply between 23666-24020 because there were clear signals previously that the supply-side overwhelmed the demand-side at points within that range.

But there’s no guarantee there will be (the future is unknown and anything can happen!).

We await evidence in the price action and volume that the supply-side remains active enough and motivated enough to impact prices sufficiently at those levels. If they do — by ways of supply-side candles (i.e., black-bodied and or upward pointing shadows) and elevated volumes — we can gauge the strength of their motivation and the potential size of their holdings.

They may not. Things change, those who supplied last time may act differently last time — or it may not matter — the demand-side may be so strong the next time that supply melts in the face of the buyers’ advance. In this case, we’ll see demand-side candles (i.e., white-bodied and or downward pointing shadows) and elevated volumes*.

Last night’s candle, with its upward pointing shadow just tipping into the supply zone is an important indicator that there does indeed reside some motivated supply in 23666-24020. The modest size of the candle, and its modest accompanying volume, however, suggests that we’re not dealing with a massive force.

It was, though, sufficient to halt what was a promising session. If the demand-side had pulled it off — with a strong and confident long, white-bodied candle closing within 23666-24020 — it would have signalled convincing motivation. If such a candle were to be accompanied by elevated volume — it would have spoken to both motivation/desire and size among the demand-side.

*Volume is going to be particularly critical here — it usually is when it comes to dislodging pesky supply. The only way to clear the latent supply lurking within 23666-24020 is to trade with them. That means demand meeting supply = volume!

Apart from an interesting teaching moment on price action and volume, Wednesday’s candle delivers us technical analysts little more to go on than we had before. It’s small, there wasn’t much volume, and it confirms what we already knew: 23666-24020 is likely to be a tough nut to crack.

The candle isn’t great for those who wish to see the Comp blast to new highs, but neither is it reason to reduce my present risk setting.

View

I'm remain comfortable at my 2/3RP portfolio risk limit. (RP = Risk Position — it reflects my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in US stocks. So 1/2RP is 50%, 2/3RP is 67% and FRP is 100%).

Key levels

The trough at 23119 is the closest point of demand — a close below it would signal the demand-side is under pressure again — but I propose that it's not until a close below the next, lower point of demand at 22692 that we can assume they've lost control of the Comp's price. On a close below 21898 the short term trend is unequivocally down and the long term uptrend is likely under significant pressure = ⚠️. 23666-24020 is the nearest critical zone of supply — the Comp must close within this zone with a strong demand-side candle to confirm the demand-side is unequivocally back in control of the Comp's price.

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Analysis

I can’t bring myself to write more than these two words about the ASX 200 — a.k.a. The Old Tin Pot: Ho + Hum 😴

(um... tell me if I missed anything! 😉)

View

The Old Tin Pot feels broken 😭. Despite this, I'll stick with 1/2RP 🪣 — because there remains many strong uptrends within the Resources sector (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in Australian stocks is 50%).

Key levels

8547-8562 is the new closest zone of demand. A close below this zone would confirm the supply side is back in control of the ASX 200's price. In theory though, the short term and long term trend ribbons now begin to act as a zone of dynamic demand (presently 8567-8688). 8806 is the next key point of supply. A close above it would confirm the demand-side is in control of the price — but it would take a miracle in the "dud" sectors to make this happen!

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Economy

Today

• There weren't any major economic data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Friday

• 12:30 CHN December CPI & Producer Price Index ("PPI")

  • CPI: +0.8% p.a. forecast vs +0.7% p.a. in November

  • PPI: -2.0% p.a. forecast vs -2.2% p.a. in November

Saturday

• 00:30 USA December Non-Farm Employment Report

  • Change: 66,000 forecast vs 64,000 in November

  • Rate: 4.5% forecast vs 4.6% in November

  • Average Hourly Earnings: +0.3% m/m vs +0.1% m/m in November

• 02:00 USA Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment (53.5 forecast vs 52.9 in December)

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Latest News

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Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +15.5% Core Lithium (CXO) – Response to ASX Price Query, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +10.3% Energy Transition Minerals (ETM) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, added to ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list yesterday 🔎📈

• +10.3% Locksley Resources (LKY) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +10.0% Austral Resources Australia (AR1) – No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• +8.1% Mesoblast (MSB) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.3% Orezone Gold Corp. (ORE) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.2% Zip Co. (ZIP) – No news 🤔.

• +7.1% Chalice Mining (CHN) – No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.5% Pmet Resources (PMT) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.8% Sunrise Energy Metals (SRL) – No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.6% Lindian Resources (LIN) – Kangankunde Construction Momentum Builds, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.5% Austal (ASB) – No news, general strength across the broader Defence sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.2% Wildcat Resources (WC8) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.0% Global X Defence Tech ETF (DTEC) – No news, general strength across the broader Defence sector today (Defence sector ETF), rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +4.8% Electro Optic Systems Holdings (EOS) – No news, general strength across the broader Defence sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +4.7% Vaneck Global Defence ETF (DFND) – No news, general strength across the broader Defence sector today (Defence sector ETF), rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -13.8% Manuka Resources (MKR) – Retraction of Updated Forecast Financial Information.

• -7.1% Syrah Resources (SYR) – Change of Director's Interest Notices x6.

• -6.2% Ansell (ANN) – Ansell announces CEO to retire, new CEO appointed.

• -5.8% Capricorn Metals (CMM) – No news since 07-Jan December 2025 Quarterly Production Update.

• -5.4% Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) – No news since, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

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Broker Moves

Life360 Inc (360)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $47.00

Aussie Broadband (ABB)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $6.07 from $6.29

Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $75.00

AMP (AMP)

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.05

Ansell (ANN)

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $35.52 from $37.20

ASX (ASX)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $52.20 from $61.90

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $58.00 from $64.00

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $58.60

• Upgraded to neutral from sell at UBS; Price Target: $54.85 from $53.00

Atturra (ATA)

• Retained at accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $0.80 from $0.95

Bellevue Gold (BGL)

• Retained at buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $2.50 from $2.40

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.80

BHP Group (BHP)

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $48.00

Beach Energy (BPT)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $1.20

Cobram Estate Olives (CBO)

• Upgraded to buy from accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.65 from $3.51

Challenger (CGF)

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $9.85

Chalice Mining (CHN)

• Retained at speculative buy at Morgans; Price Target: $4.50 from $2.90

Collins Foods (CKF)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $12.85

Cochlear (COH)

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $281.00 from $295.00

Computershare (CPU)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $36.00

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $39.30

CSL (CSL)

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $217.00 from $235.00

Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $24.00 from $21.50

Elders (ELD)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $8.45

Electro Optic Systems Holdings (EOS)

• Retained at speculative buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $12.44 from $11.18

Fortescue (FMG)

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $23.00

Greatland Resources (GGP)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $13.50 from $11.90

HUB24 (HUB)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $101.50 from $109.00

Insurance Australia Group (IAG)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $9.00

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $8.80

Insignia Financial (IFL)

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.80

Infratil (IFT)

• Initiated at accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $11.30

Judo Capital Holdings (JDO)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.15

Light & Wonder Inc. (LNW)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $170.00

Magellan Financial Group (MFG)

• Downgraded to underweight from neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $8.80 from $10.20

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.55 from $8.40

Monadelphous Group (MND)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $28.75

Medibank Private (MPL)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $5.10 from $5.05

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.90 from $4.70

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.10

Micro-X (MX1)

• Retained at speculative buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.16 from $0.17

NIB Holdings (NHF)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $8.15 from $8.90

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.10 from $5.60

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $8.25 from $8.50

Nickel Industries (NIC)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.90

Northern Star Resources (NST)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $27.50 from $28.10

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $31.00 from $32.00

Netwealth Group (NWL)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $29.80 from $30.65

Origin Energy (ORG)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $11.11

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $14.10

Predictive Discovery (PDI)

• Upgraded to buy from speculative buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $1.40 from $1.30

Pacific Lime and Cement (PLA)

• Initiated at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.50

Peoplein (PPE)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.20 from $1.19

QBE Insurance Group (QBE)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $22.90 from $23.90

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $22.00

Reece (REH)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $14.50

Ramsay Health Care (RHC)

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $33.97 from $34.75

Rio Tinto (RIO)

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $150.00 from $147.00

ResMed Inc. (RMD)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $44.56 from $48.80

Ramelius Resources (RMS)

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $3.50

Steadfast Group (SDF)

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.70 from $5.80

SGH (SGH)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $53.60

Sonic Healthcare (SHL)

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $23.97 from $24.50

Santos (STO)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $7.80 from $8.10

Suncorp Group (SUN)

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $20.00 from $20.50

Symal Group (SYL)

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.35 from $3.10

Tesoro Gold (TSO)

• Retained at speculative buy at Morgans; Price Target: $4.88 from $0.32

Treasury Wine Estates (TWE)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $4.80

VBX (VBX)

• Retained at speculative buy at Morgans; Price Target: $2.10 from $1.60

Worley (WOR)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $17.00 from $17.50

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Scans