Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to edge lower, S&P 500 slips + Defence stocks and miners to fall

ASX 200 futures are down 10pts (-0.11%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• US equities lower and closed near worst levels, with relatively weak breadth

• Geopolitics is dominating headlines (US Venezuela/Greenland, Japan-Chin and EU-Ukraine) but minimal impact on markets

• Busy day for US economic data, with firmer ISM services PMI, soft ADP private payrolls and unexpectedly weak JOLTs job openings

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 faded a positive start to close lower (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks lower and closed near worst levels, with the S&P 500 fading a ~0.30% early gain

• Geopolitics continues to dominate the headlines, with a myriad of moving pieces surrounding Venezuela, Japan-China, US-Greenland and EU-Ukraine security plans

• Relatively heavy data day, with solid ISM services, soft ADP private payrolls and unexpectedly weaker JOLTs job openings, though data did not have much impact on Fed policy expectations or bond yields

• Geopolitical risk has shifted from a short-term shock to a permanent pricing factor in commodity markets (BI)

• Gold and silver miners raised the most cash through share sales in more than a decade last year (BBG)

• Global bond sales hit record high of $230bn to kick off 2026 (BBG)

• China orders its tech companies to halt Nvidia H200 chip orders (TI)

STOCKS

• Nvidia sees stronger-than-expected demand, revenue outlook brightens amid booming AI adoption (BBG)

• Nvidia boosts H200 production as it expects US-China export deal to reopen Chinese sales soon (FT)

• Warner Bros again rejects Paramount takeover bid, management call it a leveraged buyout (AP)

• OpenAI launches ChatGPT Health, encouraging users to connect their medical records (TV)

• Polymarket will supply Dow Jones with trading data under a new partnership (BBG)

• Anthropic raising $10bn in latest funding round at $350bn valuation, up from $183bn in September (BBG)

• Samsung warns rising memory costs may increase consumer product prices (TI)

• Google regains AI lead with a powerful model and major search overhaul, surpassing OpenAI (WSJ)

• Sandisk soars 28% after Nvidia CEO highlights rising memory and storage demand at CES (BBG)

TARIFFS

• Over US$133bn in US tariffs face potential refunds if deemed unlawful by Supreme Court (RT)

GEOPOLITICS

• Venezuela to turn over 30-50m barrels of oil to US, says Trump (AX)

• Venezuela will ship sanctioned oil to US indefinitely (CNBC)

• Trump set to meet oil executives Friday to discuss Venezuela, corporations seek security guarantees and election clarity (AX)

• Chevron dispatches 11 ships to Venezuela to begin exporting oil (BBG)

• US discussing options to acquire Greenland, Trump won't rule out military force (FT)

• Europe agrees security terms for Ukraine, with UK and France commit postwar troops despite Russia objections (NYT)

• Japan condemns China's dual‑use export ban as "absolutely unacceptable," escalating rare‑earths dispute (RT)

ECONOMY

• US November JOLTS job openings comes in at 7.14m vs. 7.70m consensus, now at the lowest since Sep-24 (BBG)

• Eurozone inflation eased to 2.0% in December thanks to falling energy costs (FT)

• Japan's services PMI fell to 51.6 in December, weakest growth since May (RT)

• Australia inflation eased to 3.4% in November but still above RBA's target (RT)

ASX TODAY

• Black Cat Syndicate reports 2Q26 gold production of 25,437oz vs. guidance of 23-28.5koz, Q3 guidance of 25-28koz (BC8)

• BlueScope rejects takeover bid from SGH, Steel Dynamics; accuses bidders of undervaluing the company (RT)

• Ramelius Resources reports 2Q26 gold production of 45.6koz, on-track to meet FY26 production guidance of 185-205koz, cash and gold balance of $694m as at 31-Dec (RMS)

• Talga Group granted patent for advanced graphite anode technology lasting until at least 2040 (TLG)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Defence: Trump said he is banning dividends and stock buybacks for US defence companies until they build “new and modern production plants”. High-profile names like Lockheed Martin, RTX and Northrop Grumman fell 2-5% overnight, closing the session at intraday lows. This could put some downward pressure on local names like Austal and EOS.

• Materials pullback: Commodities traded broadly lower overnight, with copper, silver, palladium and nickel prices all down more than 2%.

• Aussie yields: Australia 10-year yield down ~8 bps, marking one of the largest declines since last April thanks to the cooler-than-expected inflation print. The CPI data was encouraging but still high and makes the February decision a close call between a hold and hike, according to most economists.

BROKER MOVES

• ASX upgraded to Neutral from Sell; target up to $54.85 from $53 (UBS)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Thu 8 Jan: Clime Capital (CAM) – $0.014, Katana Capital (KAT) – $0.005

• Fri 9 Jan: Turners Automotive Group (TRA) – $0.07

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: None

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 11:30 am: Australia Balance of Trade (NOV)