Evening Wrap: ASX 200 steadies as RBA rate hike lifts banks, gold and mining stocks rebound after sharp sell off

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 30.9 points higher, up 0.36%.

The ASX 200 rose following the Reserve Bank’s closely split decision to lift interest rates, with the move largely anticipated but still supportive for financial stocks.

The hike reinforced expectations that higher fuel costs linked to Middle East tensions will continue to drive inflation, hurting consumer discretionary stocks. Gold and Resources stocks rebounded after a several days of sharp selloff.

In stock specific news:

• Pepper Money (PPM) (-14.9%) — plunged after Challenger cut its takeover offer, citing deteriorating market conditions and operating headwinds.

• Challenger (CGF) (+3.5%) — rallied after lowering its bid for Pepper Money, framing the revised offer as its final proposal.

• Electro Optic Systems (EOS) (-20.0%) — slumped after its chief executive flagged plans to sell a substantial parcel of shares following option exercises.

• Reliance Worldwide (RWC) (+6.9%) — surged after announcing an expanded on-market share buyback to return capital to shareholders.

• Vulcan Energy (VUL) (+1.3%) — edged higher after securing its first lithium production licence for its Lionheart project in Germany.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 30.9 points higher at 8,614.3, 0.44% from its session low and 0.22% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers beat decliners by an encouraging 164 to 113.

The Gold Sub-Index (XGD) (+2.7%) rebounded after several days of correction, but also likely helped by UBS's initiation of five small ASX gold producers at a "buy" rating (see Broker Moves). Pantoro Gold (PNR) (+12.0%), Genesis Minerals (GMD) (+3.7%), Evolution Mining (EVN) (+3.7%) were standouts.

A modest fall in benchmark bond yields helped Real Estate (XPJ) (+0.9%) to rally in a generally stronger Financials (XFJ) (+0.6%) bloc of the market. For the big banks, they're seen as beneficiaries of today’s increase in the RBA’s official cash rate as they can increase mortgage rates higher and faster than they pass on higher rates to depositors.

National Australia Bank (NAB) (+0.9%) was the first of the big 4 to move on today's rate hike, but Westpac Banking Corp. (WBC) (+1.4%) was also nicely stronger. Goodman Group (GMG) (+1.2%) was notable in real estate.

Resources (XJR) (+0.7%) steadied after recent heavy selling despite softer base metals prices overnight. Alcoa Corp. (AAI) (+3.4%) and BHP Group (BHP) (+1.1%) were among the key movers — with AAI benefiting from continued aluminium shortages stemming from the Middle East conflict.

Technology and consumer-facing sectors lagged as higher interest rates continued to weigh on risk appetite and discretionary spending.

Information Technology (XIJ) (-1.3%) fell with WiseTech Global (WTC) (-3.0%), leading declines, but high P/E-high growth stocks in other sectors, like Pro Medicus (PME) (-2.7%) and Car Group (CAR) (-2.7%), were also weaker.

Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (-1.1%) flinched at the prospect of lower disposable income among consumers, with Leisure (ALL) (-2.0%) and Wesfarmers (WES) (-1.6%) under pressure.

Energy (XEJ) (-0.7%) also eased after oil prices dipped overnight, dragging on Woodside Energy Group (WDS) (-0.7%). Note, however, that losses were limited here as Brent crude rebounded strongly in Asian trade, rising 4.1% to around US$104.30/bbl.

Gold and silver were little changed in Asian trade, with gold up 0.3% to around US$5,015/oz and silver also 0.3% higher at about US$80.94/oz.

Lithium prices weakened in China trade, with benchmark carbonate futures falling 2.5% to around 155,520 CNY/mt. The softer pricing weighed on lithium names including PLS Group (PLS) (-1.9%) and IGO (IGO) (-1.0%).

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

Nasdaq Composite Index

Analysis

Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) post on X this morning: "Wall Street closed sharply higher, driven by gains in AI-related stocks..."

That's the kinda stuff you're fed in every other market wrap — but not this one! 🚫

"Sharply higher"? Um, look at the chart above: Does that candle look sharply higher to you!? 🤦

This is why it's important to look past the media headlines — concocted by finance journos going through the motions — trying to spin narratives around why the market or a stock was up / down today... I call these "Plausible Narratives".

I'm a finance journo myself — so I know how seductive Plausible Narratives can be!

My job is to put words in the right order that constitute a reasonable explanation for what occurred — when in actual fact I don't have a bloody clue! 😉

But then there's charts. Our greatest defence against Plausible Narratives is price action: Demand vs Supply = Price 💪

Unlike journos grasping for Plausible Narratives to fill pixels on their organisation's webiste — we don't require reasonable explanations for what occurred.

Nope, we don't care why stuff happened, just that it happened.

We analyse the price action and volume to try to understand whether the demand- or supply-side of the market is in control of price. Either scenario carries with it a potential future price path that will occur MOTN (More Often Than Not).

This is our Analysis.

Next, we Accept the MOTN outcome associated with our Analysis. This is the hard part! Sometimes our analysis flies in the face of what we're comfortable with and it often requires tough decisions to be made.

But we never say: "Oh, but what if this / that occurs? What about the Plausible Narratives! Maybe I shouldn't... No, I can't possibly do that..." 🤯).

Nope! We Analyse, Accept, and then most importantly, we Act = Manage Risk 🧐.

Anyways, I've taken up enough of your time... better step down from my the soap box! Let me conclude today's analysis by simply asking your view on the Comp chart above: Does last night's candle constitute an emphatic demand-side showing?

More specifically, does it change the balance of MOTN for the Comp? Is it sufficient to flip the prevailing environment of S > D = P ⬇️ MOTN to something else, like S = D = P ➡️ or D > S = P ⬆️? 🤔

No, I don't think so either! So, we continue to tread carefully: Alert — but not alarmed! Ready to manage our risk even further from the current, already conservative levels.

This is why you did the hard work sticking it out and learning the ChartWatch technical model! I knew it would come in handy for you one day! ⛈️

View

1/2RP still feels valid with respect to my US portfolio risk limit (RP = Risk Position — it reflects my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in US stocks — how full I can fill my US "Risk Bucket" if you prefer. 1/2RP is 50%, 2/3RP is 67% and FRP is 100% 🪣).

Key levels

21898 is the critical zone of demand — a close below it implies the long term uptrend is likely under significant pressure (over!?) = ⚠️. The short term downtrend ribbon (presently 22696-22828) is the nearest critical zone of point supply, and 22907-23170-23321 aren't far beyond that.

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Analysis

Rate hike. My wife just called and told me it just cost us 150 bucks to fill up our car (yes, I'm still running a dirty gas guzzler! 🚙).

And yet, despite the double whammy to consumers' back pockets, Aussie stocks rose today.

I'm not for one second saying they shouldn't have. Plausible narratives + I don't care, remember? Simply that when a stock or market goes up on seemingly bad news, it's usually a sign of underlying strength.

But, even with that vote of confidence via today's small white-bodied candle — it's just a drop in the ocean of black-bodied candles that got us here in the first place!

This is how I make the present set of ASX 200 (aka, the Old Tin Pot) technicals:

• ST Trend = ⬇️ + price < short term trend ribbon + short term trend ribbon acting as zone of dynamic supply = ⚠️

• LT Trend = ➡️ + price < long term trend ribbon + long term trend ribbon acting as zone of dynamic supply = ⚠️

• Price Action = falling peaks + falling troughs = sell rallies + fail to buy the dips = ⚠️

• Candles = predominantly supply side (black-bodied and or upward pointing shadows) = pervasive algorithmic sell orders + sell the rally = ⚠️

• Volume = greater on supply-dominant candles than demand-dominant candles = distribution = ⚠️

• Volatility = downside volatility > upside volatility = ⚠️

So, I make it: ⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️

Which means the analysis continues to point to downward or sideways at best price action. Those two scenarios are what I'd peg as the MOTN outcomes for the above chart.

Now, that doesn't preclude an upward outcome — simply that in my experience of the present technical setup, this is a LOTN proposition!

View

1/2RP, logically, still feels like the right place for me to be 🪣 (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in Australian stocks is 50%).

Key levels

8383-8457 is the closest zone of demand (static). Beyond it — the bear market awaits...⚠️🚨 The ASX 200 must at least close back above the long term uptrend ribbon (presently 8673-8776 to reclaim any semblance of demand-side control.

Economy

Today

• 14:30 AUS RBA Official Cash Rate Announcement & Statement of Monetary Policy

  • Result: +0.25% to 4.10% forecast 😭

  • Vote: 5 Hike vs 4 Hold

  • RBA Governor Michelle Bullock Press Conference:

    • The economy grew faster, the labour market tightened, and inflation was stronger since the last meeting.

    • There was "slightly” more excess demand in the economy.

    • Higher petrol prices will not slow demand enough on their own… the risks to inflation have tilted to the upside. Further action via the cash rate was required.

    • We are managing inflation expectations, this can only be achieved if consumers believe we’re committed to our inflation target.

    • We considered holding until May, some preferred to hold “in a hawkish sense”, but the majority agreed that another rate increase was needed now.

    • The higher cash rate will likely put upward pressure on the exchange rate, and this may assist in bringing inflation down.

    • It's still possible if this resolves, that everything will turn out okay, but if circumstances change — if it looks like the world economy is going to slow — then that will have very different implications for inflation, and if the board needs to change tack, we will.

Later this week

Wednesday

• 23:30 USA February Core Producer Price Index (PPI) (+0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.8% m/m in January)

Thursday

• 05:00 USA Federal Reserve Funds Rate, Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) Economic Projections & Statement of Monetary Policy (no change at 3.75% forecast)

• 05:30 USA Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell press conference

• 11:30 AUS February Employment

  • Change: +20,300 forecast vs +17,800 in January

  • Unemployment rate: unchanged at 4.1%

• Tentative: JPN Bank of Japan (BOJ) Policy rate (no change at <0.75% forecast)

• 23:00 UK Bank of England (BOE) Official Bank Rate Announcement & Monetary Policy Summary (no change at 3.75% forecast)

Friday

• 00:15 EUR European Central Bank Main Financing Rate Announcement & Statement of Monetary Policy (no change at 2.15% forecast)

• 12:00 CHN Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) Long Prime Rate Announcement

• 1-year Loan Prime Rate: no change at 3.0% forecast

• 5-year Loan Prime Rate: no change at 3.5% forecast

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +12.0% Pantoro Gold (PNR) – No news since 16-Mar Presentation - Site Visit & Euroz Hartleys Conference, initiated at buy at UBS with price target $7.50, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +9.4% Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +9.1% Ora Banda Mining (OBM) – No news, initiated at buy at UBS with price target $1.60, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +9.1% Meeka Metals (MEK) – Processing Upgrade to 800ktpa Underway, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +7.6% Catalyst Metals (CYL) – No news, initiated at buy at UBS with price target $11.25, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +6.7% Boss Energy (BOE) – Change in substantial holding (possible short seller exit).

• +6.6% Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX) – No news since 16-Mar Telix Resubmits NDA to FDA for Pixclara Brain Cancer Imaging.

• +5.8% West African Resources (WAF) – WAF Delivers $567 Million NPAT for 2025 and Investor Presentation March 2026, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +5.4% Torque Metals (TOR) – Torque Investor Presentation - Euroz Hartleys Conference, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +4.9% Westgold Resources (WGX) – No news, initiated at buy at UBS with price target $10.25, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +4.4% Dateline Resources (DTR) – Music Valley Survey Complete as Exploration Advances, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -17.0% Electro Optic Systems (EOS) – Share Options Exercised and Planned Divestment of Shares and Change of Director's Interest Notice - Dr Andreas Schwer.

• -13.9% EQ Resources (EQR) – Results of Extraordinary General Meeting.

• -7.6% Temple & Webster Group (TPW) – No news, general weakness across the broader Consumer Discretionary sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -7.5% Qoria (QOR) – No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -7.2% Forrestania Resources (FRS) – Jaurdi Hills Acquisition - Retraction of Statement.

• -6.4% New Hope Corp. (NHC) – Half Year Results Presentation, general weakness across the broader Energy sector today.

• -6.1% Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6) – Co-PSMA data presented.

• -4.9% Yancoal Australia (YAL) – No news, general weakness across the broader Energy sector today.

• -4.9% Benz Mining Corp. (BNZ) – Benz Mining Investor Presentation Euroz Hartleys Conference and New Ultra High Grade Gold Discovery At Mt Egerton.

• -4.6% Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) – No news since 16-Mar Lynas and US DoW sign Letter of Intent for rare earth supply.

• -3.1% BetaShares Crude Oil ETF (OOO) – No news, general weakness across the broader Energy sector today, (crude oil ETF, crude prices down modestly overnight).

Broker Moves

Life360 Inc (360)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $30.00 from $50.00

ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ)

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $36.50

BHP Group (BHP)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $52.00

Bannerman Energy (BMN)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.55 from $5.60

Benz Mining Corp (BNZ)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $3.15 from $3.10

Boss Energy (BOE)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.30

Centaurus Metals (CTM)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.85 from $0.80

Catalyst Metals (CYL)

• Initiated at buy at UBS; Price Target: $11.25

Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $24.00

Deep Yellow (DYL)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.25

Fortescue (FMG)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $20.00

Generation Development Group (GDG)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $7.00 from $5.80

Golden Horse Minerals (GHM)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.50

Guzman Y Gomez (GYG)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $21.00

Immutep (IMM)

• Downgraded to hold from speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.07 from $0.65

James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $43.60

Lifestyle Communities (LIC)

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.20 from $5.35

Lotus Resources (LOT)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.75

Lovisa Holdings (LOV)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $29.00

MA Financial Group (MAF)

• Upgraded to buy from accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $11.69

Minerals 260 (MI6)

• Initiated at buy at UBS; Price Target: $1.20

Mineral Resources (MIN)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $68.00

Northern Star Resources (NST)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $30.00 from $35.00

Ora Banda Mining (OBM)

• Initiated at buy at UBS; Price Target: $1.60

Oneview Healthcare Plc (ONE)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.45 from $0.50

Orica (ORI)

• Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $26.60 from $26.00

• Retained at overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $26.10

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $25.40 from $25.50

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $25.00 from $25.50

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $27.00

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $27.00

Paladin Energy (PDN)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $12.80 from $9.00

• Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $13.50

Premier Investments (PMV)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $16.20

Pantoro Gold (PNR)

• Initiated at buy at UBS; Price Target: $7.50

Perpetual (PPT)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $17.30 from $19.70

• Upgraded to outperform from hold at CLSA; Price Target: $17.35 from $19.20

• Retained at neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $19.50

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $24.60 from $23.85

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $20.30

PYC Therapeutics (PYC)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.30

Qube Holdings (QUB)

• Downgraded to neutral from buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.15 from $4.90

Rio Tinto (RIO)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $160.00

Rivco Australia (RIV)

• Initiated at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.65

Reliance Worldwide Corporation (RWC)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $4.25

• Upgraded to overweight from neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $4.30 from $3.80

Rox Resources (RXL)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.15

Solstice Minerals (SLS)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.85

Servcorp (SRV)

• Initiated at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $9.70

Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $32.00

Tetratherix (TTX)

• Retained at speculative buy at Morgans; Price Target: $7.03 from $5.76

Universal Store Holdings (UNI)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $10.50

West African Resources (WAF)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $5.70

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.00

Westgold Resources (WGX)

• Initiated at buy at UBS; Price Target: $10.25

Woolworths Group (WOW)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $39.00

Scans