Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to bounce, S&P 500 and Nasdaq rise on oil pullback, RBA set to hike

ASX 200 futures are up 66 pts (+0.76%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• Local sharemarket set to bounce after a three-day losing streak, though the RBA meeting (widely expected to hike) could rattle markets

• Major US benchmarks higher but struggled to hold onto session highs, all sectors finished higher, with Tech and Discretionary leading gains

• WTI crude fell 5.1% to US$94 as Trump said the White House will soon announce which countries have agreed to participate in a coalition to protect tankers through the Strait of Hormuz

Let's dive in.

Overnight Summary

Tue 17 Mar 26, 8:21am (AEST)

Name	Value	% Chg
Major Indices
S&P 500	6,699	+1.01%
Dow Jones	46,946	+0.83%
NASDAQ Comp	22,374	+1.22%
Russell 2000	2,503	+0.94%
Country Indices
Canada	32,877	+1.03%
China	4,085	-0.26%
Germany	23,564	+0.50%
Hong Kong	25,834	+1.45%
India	75,503	+1.26%
Japan	53,751	-0.13%
United Kingdom	10,318	+0.55%

Name	Value	% Chg
Commodities (USD)
Gold	5,006.0	-0.32%
Copper	5.8	+1.44%
WTI Oil	94.22	-4.55%
Currency
AUD/USD	0.7074	+0.04%
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin (USD)	74,282	+3.56%
Ethereum (AUD)	3,324	+10.30%
Miscellaneous
US 10 Yr T-bond	4.22	-1.52%
VIX	23.51	-13.53%

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 higher but off best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks higher, finished off best levels as oil prices pulled back and investors reassessed the risk of a lasting energy shock

• Stocks rebounded amid potential relief for the Strait of Hormuz, with US due to announce that countries have confirmed a coalition to escort ships through the passage as well as select Iranian tankers still going through, though heightened concerns remain – risks to regional energy infrastructure and no real movement with de-escalation

• VIX down 13% to 23.5 as oil-driven panic eased, one of the biggest one-day decline in weeks

• WTI crude settled 5.1% lower to US$94.23 after spiking above US$102 in early trade, as select tankers found a way through the Strait of Hormuz and signals grew that rich nations may release strategic stockpiles

• Bond funds boost bets that central bank policies will diverge despite inflation fears (BBG)

• Citadel drops bearish Treasury view after market rout, says markets have likely priced in inflation risks (BBG)

• Oil's war-driven volatility attracts record retail investment in ETFs, prompting comparisons to past trading frenzies (CNBC)

• LME electronic trading halted for more than two hours due to a matching engine failure, its second outage of 2026, forcing backup pricing for copper, aluminium and zinc (BBG)

ENERGY

• IEA chief says members could release more oil stocks if required (RT)

• Daily oil exports from Middle East down by at least 60% from month earlier (RT)

• Large number of tankers are waiting to collect oil from Saudi Arabia's key port in the Red Sea (BBG)

• Moscow rushes to reap the reward of soaring oil prices and US tariff waiver, exports to India hit record high (BBG)

• Fujairah port in the UAE is struck again, oil loading suspended amid ongoing attacks (BBG)

• Iran leverages its Strait of Hormuz advantage, compelling energy buyers to negotiate safe transit (BBG)

• US Energy Secretary says "no guarantees" for falling gas prices as Strait of Hormuz remains unsafe (AX)

• IEA's emergency oil reserves of 411.9m barrels will soon flow to global markets, mainly Asia and Europe (IVST)

• China asserts it has sufficient energy resources amid restricted oil flows from Iran conflict (CNBC)

IRAN

• Trump reiterates appeal for help from other countries to secure Strait of Hormuz, threatens to expand strikes on Kharg Island (BBG)

• Most countries have stopped short of committing naval assets for Trump's purposed coalition to reopen Hormuz (BBG)

• Israel says it has plans for at least three weeks of war (RT)

• Trump considers seizing Iran's oil depot on Kharg Island, necessitating US ground forces if tankers remain blocked in the Gulf (AX)

• Iran intensifies attacks in the Persian Gulf and halting flights at Dubai airport (WP)

• Kevin Hassett cites Pentagon's estimate of the Iran war lasting 4-6 weeks (BBG)

• Trump threatens to postpone Xi summit if Beijing doesn't assist in securing Strait of Hormuz (BBG)

• Trump warns NATO could face a 'very bad future' without allies' support in Iran conflict (CNBC)

STOCKS

• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang at GTC said he expects purchase orders for Blackwell and Vera Rubin chips to reach $1 trillion through 2027, double last year's $500bn estimate, shares up 1.6% (CNBC)

• Nvidia unveiled Groq 3 LPU, its first chip from the Groq startup it mostly acquired for $20bn in December, expected to ship in Q3 2026 (CNBC)

• JPMorgan estimates 20% workforce reduction could save Meta $5bn per year (WSJ)

• Foxconn Q4 net profit fell 2.4% to NT$45.2bn, missing Bloomberg estimates of NT$59.9bn on weak margins, despite record revenue. Company expects AI server rack shipments to grow "exponentially" in 2026 (RT)

TARIFFS

• Bessent called the two-day US-China Paris trade talks "very good", with discussions covering agriculture purchases, Boeing jets, US energy exports and proposed "Board of Trade" and "Board of Investment" mechanisms ahead of Trump's planned Beijing visit on 31 March (RT)

• China's trade negotiator Li Chenggang warned that new US Section 301 investigations could damage the "hard-won and stable" US-China trade relationship (AP)

• Trump told the Financial Times he may delay his late-March China trip to pressure Beijing on the Strait of Hormuz, though Bessent said any delay would be for "logistical reasons" only (FT)

• Federal judge ordered the US government to begin paying out more than $130bn in tariff refunds to businesses that paid duties struck down by the Supreme Court. Over 2,000 companies including Costco and FedEx have filed suits (YF)

CENTRAL BANKS

• CME FedWatch now shows traders pricing in almost no cuts for 2026, with at most one reduction in December. Goldman Sachs pushed its first-cut forecast from June to September (TS)

• Central banks poised to adopt a hawkish stance, influenced by supply shock reactions ahead (FT )

• RBA expected to hike today, policymakers to weigh impact of Middle East conflict (BBG)

ECONOMY

• China's economy starts strong, with consumption and production exceeding expectations in 2026 (CNBC)

• China's home price declines moderate in February, supportive measures show signs of recovery (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• Meeka Metals installs ore sorting at Murchison, to boost mill capacity to 800ktpa (MEK)

• New Hope reports 1H25 NPAT of $54.3m, interim dividend of 10 cents per share, FY26 guidance guidance (NHC)

• West African Resources reports 2025 NPAT of $567 million, with $584 million cash and bullion vs. market cap of $3.2bn (WAF)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Market bounce: The overnight session saw all the good things, with oil prices, bond yields and the VIX all pulling back. This drove a rather broad-based bounce, with all S&P 500 sectors trading higher and most overnight ETFs up 1-2%. Despite the bounce, plenty of overhang remains around physical oil market tightness, the lack of off-ramp clarity and skepticism around Trump's international coalition. RBA also widely expected to hike at today's meeting (~70% chance), with most major bank analysts expecting back-to-back hikes in March and May.

BROKER MOVES

• Catalyst Metals initiated Buy with $11.25 target (UBS)

• Minerals 260 initiated Buy with $1.20 target (UBS)

• Ora Banda initiated Buy with $1.60 target (UBS)

• Pantoro initiated Buy with $7.50 target (UBS)

• Paladin Energy upgraded to Outperform; but target price lowered to $13.50 from $14 (MQG)

• Westgold Resources initiated Buy with $10.25 target (UBS)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Tue 17 Mar: Credit Corp Group (CCP) – $0.32, Duratec (DUR) – $0.018, Reece (REH) – $0.054, Seek (SEK) – $0.27

• Wed 18 Mar: Adrad (AHL) – $0.014, Auckland International Airport (AIA) – $0.055, Brisbane Broncos (BBL) – $0.03, Cti Logistics (CLX) – $0.06, LGI (LGI) – $0.013, Supply Network (SNL) – $0.36

• Thu 19 Mar: The a2 Milk Company (A2M) – $0.083, Briscoe Group Australasia (BGP) – $0.084, Cochlear (COH) – $2.15, Enero Group (EGG) – $0.01, K & S Corporation (KSC) – $0.05, Kelsian Group (KLS) – $0.08, Macmahon (MAH) – $0.01, PM Capital Global Opportunities Fund (PGF) – $0.07, Spark New Zealand (SPK) – $0.063, Yancoal Australia (YAL) – $0.122

• Fri 20 Mar: Latitude Group (LFS) – $0.05

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: Amcor (AMC), Helloworld (HLO), Mitchell Services (MSV), Objective Corp (OCL)

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 2:30 pm: RBA Interest Rate Decision (Ests: 25 bp hike to 4.1%)