Evening Wrap: ASX 200 slides on crumbling TWE and TLX, gold and silver rebounds, as lithium's new bull rampages on

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 13.7 points lower, down 0.16%.

Resources stocks rebounded strongly today, led by resurgent gold and silver stocks (the gold sector stacked on over 4%). The other stand out commodity was lithium, as benchmark lithium futures in China are trading almost 8% higher.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

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Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 13.7 points lower at 8,585.2, 0.45% from its session low and just 0.16% from its high. As if reflecting the conflicted nature of today’s intraday chart for the benchmark — in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers pipped decliners by 137 to 136!

Fund flows: Back to the script... 📋

A bit back to the script today, wasn’t it? 🤔

• Gold Sub-Index (XGD) (+4.1%)

• Resources (XJR) (+1.3%)

Daylight… (pretty much everything else down…)

• Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (-0.6%)

• Information Technology (XIJ) (-1.1%)

• Health Care (XHJ) (-1.9%)

The terrible trio of high P/E long duration were joined by an increasingly ailing Energy (XEJ) (-1.4%) sector that is slumping under the weight of a sagging crude oil price…

Financials (XFJ) (-0.4%) — where the biggest chunk of index points sits, wasn’t as bad as many, but it wasn’t great. Note the downward pointing shadow on its candle for today in the chart below (a shadow that was absolutely not reflected in the charts of the Terrible Trio — because this observation will be important when you get to ChartWatch below! 🧐

Hint: One cannot help but feel that the big banks hold the key to this Santa Rally, and indeed whether this present ASX 200 pullback is going to go “Full-GFC”. For that reference, you’ll have to watch the start of today’s ChartWatch *LIVE* Webinar!

Stock Specific: Surely there's a way? 🤷

Surely there was a way to anticipate something wasn't quite right with Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) prior to today's "surprise" profit downgrade... a way for the average investor to protect themselves from holding on all the way down? Surely!? 🤔

Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) is the most Featured (i.e. highest conviction) chart for a downtrend in the history of ChartWatch ASX Scans!!! It has been a Feature Downtrend 67 times since May 2024 from a starting price of $11.11. 📉

But let's end this part of the wrap on a high note... ladies and gentlemen, I give you the chart of benchmark GFEX lithium carbonate futures:

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

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ChartWatch

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Analysis

You must zoom in the chart above to see the little “tickle” of the 8562 point of demand in today’s candle.

If we had closed at the low of today’s session — below 8562 — one may have wagered the Santa Rally was gone for all money.

But that didn’t occur.

There was some latent demand down there, probably not coincidentally at the bottom of the long term tend ribbon, that pushed the ASX 200 price back to within 0.16% of its session high.

Volume was about average – i.e., there was a bit of demand that came in at that low to soak up the bit of supply that forced the probe below 8562.

“Modestly positive” is how I’d describe today’s candle.

That “far from glowing endorsement-but could have been worse” acknowledgement reflects where the Old Tin Pot finds itself as the final few days of 2025 approach — in limbo-land — demonstrating an equilibrium between demand and supply.

Bigger picture, the short term downtrend remains the most obvious impediment to a more risk seeking stance: we must see a close back above that dynamic zone of supply, plus the static barrier of 8702, before we can contemplate this.

8562, but more specifically now the low of today’s candle at 8547 is the key point of demand. A close below there and we could see a test of 8383 — very quickly! 🚨⚠️

View

I am holding at 1/3RP (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit (Risk Position) for my investments in Australian stocks is 33%) — pausing the transition to 1/2RP triggered on Friday until I see at least a couple more strong demand-side candles and/or a close above the new point of supply at 8702.

Key levels

8547-8562 is the new closest zone of demand. A close below this price would confirm the supply side is back in control of the ASX 200's price. In theory though, the short term and long term trend ribbons may now begin to act as a zone of dynamic demand (presently 8550-8663). The next key zone of supply is the old demand zone at 8731-8738, and it's 8809-8843 above that.

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Economy

Today

• There weren't any major economic data releases in our time zone today.

Later this week

Thursday

• No major economic data releases due Thursday

Friday

• 00:30 USA November Core CPI

Saturday

• 02:00 USA November Existing Home Sales (4.15 million forecast vs 4.10 million in October)

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Latest News

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Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +21.1% Marmota (MEU) – Greenewood Gold - Stage 2 Drilling has completed, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +18.3% Metal Powder Works (MPW) – MPW signs powder partnership with Austal and Webinar Presentation.

• +16.7% WIA Gold (WIA) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +16.2% Investigator Resources (IVR) – No news since 16-Dec Paris Silver DFS Update - Optimisation and Recovery Lift, general strength across the broader Silver sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +14.8% Chalice Mining (CHN) – No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• +12.9% Argosy Minerals (AGY) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +11.9% Peninsula Energy (PEN) – No news.

• +11.8% Liontown Resources (LTR) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +11.6% Astral Resources (AAR) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +11.6% IGO (IGO) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +10.6% Humm Group (HUM) – Humm receives s203D Notice & Non-Binding Indicative Proposal, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +10.2% Sovereign Metals (SVM) – Continued positive response to 16-Dec World Bank Group's IFC to Collaborate with Sovereign, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• +10.0% Cedar Woods Properties (CWP) – FY26 Earnings Guidance Upgrade, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +9.5% The Star Entertainment Group (SGR) – Appointment of new Chairman and Board changes.

• +9.5% Medallion Metals (MM8) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +9.2% EQ Resources (EQR) – No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +9.1% Mayfield Group Holdings (MYG) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +9.0% Unico Silver (USL) – No news, general strength across the broader Silver sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +8.6% Sun Silver (SS1) – No news, general strength across the broader Silver sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -15.4% Graincorp Class A (GNC) – Sale of GrainsConnect Canada and Trading Update, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and falling peaks and falling troughs 🔎📉

• -12.1% Droneshield (DRO) – No news, pulled back after yesterday's sharp rally due to $49.6m European military contract.

• -11.5% Austal (ASB) – Ceasing to be a substantial holder, (State Street Corp.), fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and falling peaks and falling troughs 🔎📉

• -9.3% Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) – Investor Update and 1H26 Outlook Presentation, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, the most Featured (i.e. highest conviction) chart for a downtrend in the history of ChartWatch ASX Scans!!! 🔎📉

• -8.4% Sunrise Energy Metals (SRL) – No news since 16-Dec Follow-on Placement of A$32.5 million for Syerston Project, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -6.6% Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX) – No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

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Broker Moves

Arafura Rare Earths (ARU)

• Upgraded to speculative buy from hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.35 from $0.20

Alterity Therapeutics (ATH)

• Initiated at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.02

AusGold (AUC)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.70 from $1.60

BWP Trust (BWP)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $4.00

Evolution Mining (EVN)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $12.70 from $11.00

Flight Centre Travel Group (FLT)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $18.38 from $15.65

Greatland Resources (GGP)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $11.90 from $10.25

Genesis Minerals (GMD)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $7.60 from $5.70

IGO (IGO)

• Upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $10.20 from $5.40

Liontown (LTR)

• Upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $1.85 from $1.10

Northern Star Resources (NST)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $28.10 from $24.00

Orthocell (OCC)

• Initiated at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.33

PLS Group (PLS)

• Retained at overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $4.80 from $3.60

Perenti (PRN)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.10 from $2.55

Perseus Mining (PRU)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $5.70 from $4.80

QPM Energy (QPM)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.08 from $0.09

Radiopharm Theranostics (RAD)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.06 from $0.05

Region Group (RGN)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.40

Regis Resources (RRL)

• Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $6.30 from $5.00

Sunstone Metals (STM)

• Retained at speculative buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.05 from $0.04

Telstra Group (TLS)

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.00

TPG Telecom (TPG)

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.14

Treasury Wine Estates (TWE)

• Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $5.11

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $8.70

Zip Co (ZIP)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.85

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Scans