Insider trades: The most important ASX insider buys and sells for the September quarter

Welcome to the second installment of our quarterly breakdown of ASX insider moves. If you're new to the series, you can get a recap on the research that drives the series and the previous instalment via the links below: 

• Nine stocks insiders are buying - and why it matters

• Insider trades: The most important ASX insider buys and sells for the June quarter

As always, who is buying and selling makes for fascinating reading and we’ll be sharing with you the companies that have seen multiple insiders buying and selling during the period, the top insider buys and sells by dollar amount and as a percentage of market cap, and the most profitable director transactions.

Multiple insiders making moves

For me, the number of insiders buying (or selling) their own stock is always the most telling insight from the data.

Whilst some companies have one or two directors doing a lot of buying or selling (i.e. many transactions), when three, four, or more directors in the same company are all making the same move, it's a stronger signal. Let's not forget that these people sit around the same board table and respond to the same stimulus.

There were 50 companies (up from 35 in the prior quarter) with three or more different insiders making moves during the September quarter, which are listed below. I've also highlighted a few sets of transactions that really stand out. 

First, the big counts

Aurelia Metals (ASX: AMI): I have been looking at this data for a while now, let's call it 15 years in my time as an analyst and then portfolio manager, and there have not been too many times that seven directors have bought stock in the same company within a short timeframe - as is the case with Aurelia Metals. 

It's really quite astounding. There are eight members of the board at Aurelia and seven have been buying over the past three months, with non-executive chairman Peter Botten the biggest purchaser, buying almost $103,000 of shares. Yesterday, the company provided an exploration update and the share price popped 7%. As they say in the classics, follow the money. 

Aurelia Metals 3-month chart (Source: Market Index)

Sensore Ltd (ASX: S3N): The other stock with a large count of directors buying was Sensore Limited, with six directors all buying stock on the same day (3/8/23) for a combined total of $485,000. 

This one hasn't worked out so well so far, with the stock taking a dive on September 28 when the Annual Report was delivered. S3N operates in a niche area, combining AI with geoscientific expertise to better deliver exploration discovery, and the share price will likely be driven by newsflow at this stage of the company's life. 

Sensore 3-month price chart (Source: Market Index)

The bolters

The following companies have seen big share price moves in the quarter, sometimes quickly validating the buying that has occurred through the period. 

Cochlear (ASX: COH): Four COH directors were buying stock throughout the period, unfortunately all of them after the big share price spike on August 14. One director took the opportunity to unload stock (and a sizable chunk) after the rally from around $233 to $270. 

In the rest of the examples below, many directors have bought stock after a big share price move, i.e. after strong results or a positive company announcement. It's interesting and encouraging to see directors throwing their support behind a company after good news. 

Cochlear 3-month price chart (Source: Market Index)

Bapcor (ASX: BAP) - Insider moves

Bapcor 3-month price chart (Source: market Index)

New Hope Corporation (ASX: NHC) - Insider moves

New Hope Corporation 3-month chart (Source: Market Index)

Stocks with the largest insider buys

The analysis below is provided by Kerry Sun

Bravura Solutions (ASX: BVS) shares fell as much as 92% between August 2021 and March 2023 amid a series of poor trading updates, earnings downgrades, a steep capital raise (6 March 2023: $23m at a 53% discount) and abrupt management changes. After such a rollercoaster, maybe the business is starting to stabilise. The stock rallied 44% on the day of its FY23 result on 25 August, which noted:

• Achieved guidance across all metrics

• Trading performance has "driven the requirement and urgency for change," with a new CEO, Chair and refreshed board joining in the second half of FY23

• Organisational change program set to be completed ahead of schedule by June 2024, which includes total annualised savings of $40 million

• Forecast to achieve positive cash EBITDA run rate by the end of FY24

• Finished FY23 with $75.7 million cash

Bravura - Insider moves

Bravura 3-month chart (Source: Market Index)

Stocks with the largest insider sells

Despite the large face value numbers, there's surprisingly little to see here. 

Goodman Good (ASX: GMG) insiders, including co-founder Gregory Goodman and Deputy CEO Anthony Rozic, have habitually sold shares post earnings (February and August) since 2014. The $31 million shares sold in the September quarter shouldn’t really stand out as a red flag. In fact, Goodman has been the top-performing S&P/ASX 200 Real Estate stock in the past twelve months, up 40.5%.

Similarly, Sonic Healthcare’s (ASX: SHL) CEO Colin Goldschmidt and CFO Christopher Wilks were responsible for the last quarter's $22 million worth of insider selling. The two have the tendency to offload some shares around September- they have done so every year since 2014. 

This was also the case for CSL Limited (ASX: CSL) and its Board Executive Director Andrew Cuthbertson and Chair Brian McNamee.

Conclusion

Don't sleep on insider buying and selling. Clear evidence gathered over big data sets and long periods shows that insider moves correlate with outperformance.

We hope you enjoyed this deep dive into the September quarter data. If you did, make sure to give it a like and feel free to offer suggestions about what else we could do to illuminate the data.

This article was originally published on Livewire Markets on Friday, 13 October 2023.