Short Selling: IDP Education overtakes Syrah Resources as the #2 most shorted stock on the ASX

Welcome back to the Short Seller Series – A recap of the most heavily shorted stocks on the ASX as well as those experiencing significant changes to short interest over the past week.

Short selling data is four days behind today's date because reporting is not mandatory until three business days after the trade. The tables below compare:

• Week-on-week (WoW % Chg) changes between 25 March and 2 April

• Month-on-month (MoM % Chg) changes between 5 March and 2 April

Most Shorted

Key themes and takeaways:

• IDP Education advances to #2: In January 2024, Canada announced that it is introducing a temporary cap on the number of international student permits for 2024, set at approximately 360,000 (or down 35% on 2023 intakes). The Canadian market represents 40-50% of IDP's IELTs volumes (International English Language Testing Systems). While the company's half-year FY24 results (announced 14 February) beat analyst estimates, the market continues to focus on the raft of government regulatory changes impacting the business. The stock is down 10.8% in the past month and 15% year-to-date.

• Syrah shorts unwind: Syrah's short interest (while still high) has dropped to levels not seen since October 2023. The company successfully raised $80 million on 15 March at 55 cents per new share or a 21.4% discount to its last close. It also recently issued a graphite sales and market update, where the company said it expects March quarter natural graphite sales to be similar to the December-23 quarter.

Rising Shorts

Key themes and takeaways:

• Uptick in gold shorts: Gold prices have scored a fresh record high in 11 of the last 12 sessions. Yet, short interest is ticking higher for two gold names. Emerald Resources operates the Okvau Gold Deposit in Cambodia. It's a high margin gold project but the company's valuation is a little rich relative to peers. Westgold announced an FY24 production downgrade on Wednesday, 3 April. At the midpoint, its production was downgraded by 11.8% (vs. prior forecast) while costs were up 15.8%. The downgrade reflects an industry wide headwind for WA-based gold miners, where certain regions have been hit with over half their annual rainfall in just 2-3 weeks.

• 29Metals is at risk of a capital raising: 29Metals suspended its Capricorn copper project after an extended period of rainfall in the March quarter. "29M has a difficult pathway ahead with a leveraged balance sheet, transformation required at Golden Grove," Macquarie said in a note dated 27 March, adding that "the company's balance sheet remains a key risk and the company may need to raise additional equity or find a funding solution to improve balance sheet position."

• Lithium shorts are on the rise: Chinese lithium carbonate futures have rallied around 20% from late-February lows to 113,500 yuan a tonne. Interestingly, Goldman Sachs says that the "recent rally in lithium prices should not be interpreted as the end of the bear market, where further supply rationing is needed to reduce both the 2024e surplus and now larger surplus in 2025e."

Most Covered

Key themes and takeaways:

• Appen shorts ease: Appen has been through a lot of drama this year, including management changes, Google cancelling its $83m contract, takeover speculation and Innodata withdrawing its non-binding bid. The worst might not be over but the stock has had a relatively quiet week as well as a sizeable dip in short interest.

• Deep Yellow's short interest begins to normalise: Short sellers flocked to Deep Yellow earlier this year with the view that the company needed to raise capital to fund the development of its Tumas Project. The short thesis worked, with Deep Yellow raised $220 million in early March. However, the raise was conducted at a negligible 3.9% discount to its last close. The stock's short interest is now normalising towards that of peers such as Paladin Energy (3.40% short interest) and Boss Energy (2.77%)