Market Wraps

Evening Wrap: ASX 200 bounces as copper and uranium stocks soar, plus lithium's big day out

Mon 29 Apr 24, 5:45pm (AEST)

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The S&P/ASX 200 closed 61.5 points higher, up 0.81%.

Copper and uranium stocks were boosted today on a combination of well received quarterly updates and modest price gains in their respective underlying commodities (copper to closing at 1 year highs on Friday on the London Metals Exchange).

But, it's lithium stocks which are to be watched closely going forward as a key lithium contract in China surged over 5% ahead of the upcoming May Day holiday later this week. We check the chart, and it shows this was an important move – big, and on large volume.

Outside of the usual gyrations in commodity stocks, Real Estate, Technology and Communications stocks topped the sector performance list, while Energy lagged behind.

Let's dive in!


Today in Review

Mon 29 Apr 24, 4:24pm (AEST)

Name Value % Chg
Major Indices
ASX 200 7,637.4 +0.81%
All Ords 7,906.6 +0.88%
Small Ords 3,032.2 +2.27%
All Tech 3,017.8 +1.60%
Emerging Companies 2,211.2 +1.17%
Currency
AUD/USD 0.6567 +0.51%
US Futures
S&P 500 5,144.0 +0.24%
Dow Jones 38,538.0 +0.25%
Nasdaq 17,909.5 +0.36%
Name Value % Chg
Sector
Real Estate 3,512.4 +1.69%
Information Technology 2,189.9 +1.68%
Communication Services 1,501.0 +1.33%
Industrials 6,933.2 +1.23%
Health Care 42,176.9 +1.19%
Consumer Discretionary 3,405.2 +1.12%
Financials 7,165.0 +0.62%
Materials 17,977.4 +0.51%
Utilities 8,689.6 +0.50%
Consumer Staples 11,921.6 +0.44%
Energy 10,257.5 +0.01%

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Markets

S&P ASX 200 (XJO) Intraday Chart 29 Apr 2024
ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 61.5 points higher at 7,637.4, 0.81% from its session low and just 0.12% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers beat decliners by an impressive 254 to 35.

The Real Estate (XRE) (+1.7%) sector was the best performing sector today, likely in response to a very modest pullback in market rates reflected in the bond market since Friday. I put to you this sector is the most sensitive to market interest rates, lesser being better of course.

Company

Last Price

Change $

Change %

1mo %

1yr %

Pexa Group (PXA)

$12.15

+$0.73

+6.4%

-9.6%

-9.3%

Centuria Capital Group (CNI)

$1.755

+$0.065

+3.8%

-2.0%

+1.7%

Lifestyle Communities (LIC)

$12.04

+$0.42

+3.6%

-20.7%

-27.1%

HMC Capital (HMC)

$6.36

+$0.22

+3.6%

-10.2%

+61.4%

Arena REIT/Units (ARF)

$3.65

+$0.12

+3.4%

-6.9%

-1.6%

Homeco Daily Needs REIT (HDN)

$1.240

+$0.04

+3.3%

-2.7%

+3.3%

Ingenia Communities Group (INA)

$4.67

+$0.13

+2.9%

-8.1%

+13.9%

Charter Hall Group (CHC)

$11.86

+$0.33

+2.9%

-12.7%

+6.1%

Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT (CQE)

$2.53

+$0.07

+2.8%

-8.0%

-15.4%

Charter Hall Long Wale REIT (CLW)

$3.44

+$0.09

+2.7%

-9.2%

-20.7%

Property stocks bounced back strongly today

Also doing well today were the Information Technology (XIJ) (+1.7%) sector and the Communication Services (XTJ) (+1.3%) sector. There's plenty of overlap between these two sectors, and like real estate, tech stocks are highly sensitive to moves in interest rates (lesser is better here also!).

Company

Last Price

Change $

Change %

1mo %

1yr %

Weebit Nano (WBT)

$3.16

+$0.22

+7.5%

-8.7%

-40.8%

TPG Telecom (TPG)

$4.36

+$0.22

+5.3%

-2.0%

-17.3%

Technology One (TNE)

$16.26

+$0.58

+3.7%

-3.9%

+7.5%

Nine Entertainment Co. Holdings (NEC)

$1.530

+$0.045

+3.0%

-8.7%

-25.4%

EVT (EVT)

$12.08

+$0.33

+2.8%

-0.6%

-1.8%

Life360 (360)

$14.05

+$0.38

+2.8%

+7.3%

+192.1%

Siteminder (SDR)

$5.71

+$0.14

+2.5%

+2.5%

+71.0%

Nextdc (NXT)

$16.69

+$0.39

+2.4%

-4.0%

+45.7%

Car Group (CAR)

$33.94

+$0.79

+2.4%

-5.7%

+45.5%

REA Group (REA)

$179.97

+$4.06

+2.3%

-3.2%

+28.4%

Tech stocks also did well as market rates edged lower...but how long can it last?

All eleven major ASX sectors were in the black today, but at the bottom of the sector performance table were notable laggards Resources (XJR) (+0.38%) and Energy (XEJ) (+0.01%). Still, check the Interesting Moves section below for some big gains in copper, lithium, and uranium stocks.

After writing the last paragraph, I'm inclined to delve back into my Evening Wraps over the last few weeks and investigate how many times I either wrote "All eleven major ASX sectors were down" or "all were up". I won't in favour it being a totally pointless exercise, but let's just say I bet the answer is "a lot"!

Basically, the Aussie market has either been unanimous up or unanimous down quite a bit lately, and I think we'd all welcome a period of calm.

Company

Last Price

Change $

Change %

1mo %

1yr %

29METALS (29M)

$0.530

+$0.06

+12.8%

+32.5%

-54.7%

Lotus Resources (LOT)

$0.435

+$0.04

+10.1%

+8.8%

+135.1%

Boss Energy (BOE)

$4.78

+$0.4

+9.1%

0%

+106.0%

Liontown Resources (LTR)

$1.210

+$0.09

+8.0%

+6.1%

-55.7%

Deep Yellow (DYL)

$1.430

+$0.105

+7.9%

+6.7%

+180.4%

Bannerman Energy (BMN)

$3.77

+$0.26

+7.4%

+5.3%

+194.5%

Aeris Resources (AIS)

$0.295

+$0.02

+7.3%

+103.4%

-46.7%

Latin Resources (LRS)

$0.225

+$0.015

+7.1%

+25.0%

+104.5%

Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL)

$3.41

+$0.21

+6.6%

+14.8%

-41.1%

Develop Global (DVP)

$2.49

+$0.14

+6.0%

+5.1%

-20.2%

Big gains in copper, lithium, and uranium stocks

ChartWatch

Lithium Carbonate Futures GFEX

lithium carbonate futures july-24 GFEX 29 April 2024
An important candle in the context of the broader lithium carbonate rally

If you had asked me before today’s session what I thought the probability was of today’s candle/volume combination appearing – I would have said bupkis!

Today’s candle’s range is the largest in over two weeks, and its volume the largest in nearly a month. It indicates elevated motivation from the demand-side in a prevailing environment where I was increasingly believing there was none.

If I’m surprised, I bet market participants are also trying to get their heads around what today’s move means for prices going forward.

I suggest the supply-side might back away in the hope the newly found demand might get them a better deal down the track. The demand-side might feel some urgency to fulfil their requirements.

Basically, it should put a proverbial cat among the pigeons – let’s see how high they fly.

In this regard, we’re approaching several key historical points of supply beginning with 117,350 and extending all the way up to the major point of supply at 125,000.

White candles and or downward pointing shadows in this range would further signal the demand-side’s new-found resolve, and therefore increase the likelihood of a major breakout.

Simply, a close above 125,000 commences a new bull market in lithium carbonate – and I honestly didn’t think I’d have reason to type that last sentence any time soon. But there you go – I just did!

If you asked me before today’s session what I thought the probability was of the lithium carbonate price closing below the key historical point of demand at 105,800 – I would have said it feels like an inevitability. Below that point we’re very much in resumption of the bear market phase, and who’s to say it won’t still feature in the not-too-distant future?

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

S&P ASX 200 XJO 29 April 2024
Stuck in the middle, but today's candle is a welcome addition to the bull's case

Just a quick update here. Since the last note, the XJO price has indeed manifested supply at the zone between the short term downtrend ribbon and 7741 – exactly as predicted.

The long term uptrend ribbon continues to offer dynamic support, and as long as the XJO closes above this key zone, the long term trend remains up.

We are vibrating between two well defined support and resistance zones. A close above 7741 signals a resumption of the bull market, and therefore a likely test of the 7911 all time high, whereas a close below 7489-7492 would be problematic for Aussie investors to say the least!


Economy

Today

  • There weren't any major economic data released in our time zone today

Later this week

Tuesday

  • 11:30 AUS Retail Sales March (+0.2% forecast vs +0.3% February)

  • 11:30 CHN Manufacturing PMI April (50.3 forecast vs 50.8 March)

  • 11:30 CHN Non-Manufacturing PMI April (52.2 forecast vs 53.0 March)

  • 22:30 USA Employment Cost Index March quarter (+1.0% forecast vs +0.9% December)

Wednesday

  • 00:00 USA CB Consumer Confidence March (104 forecast vs 104.7 February)

Thursday

  • 00:00 USA JOLTS Job Openings March (8.68 million forecast vs 8.76 million February)

  • 04:00 USA Federal Reserve official cash rate, statement, and press conference (no change at 5.25-5.50%)

Friday

  • 22:30 USA Non-Farm Employment Change April (+243,000 forecast vs +303,000 March); Unemployment rate April (3.8% forecast, no change); Average Hourly Earnings April (+0.3% forecast, no change)

Saturday

  • 00:00 USA ISM Services PMI April (52.0 forecast vs 51.4 March)


Latest News


Interesting Movers

Trading higher

  • +16.7% Mesoblast (MSB) - No news, possible continued positive response to 26 March FDA Notifies Clinical Data Sufficient for Refiling aGVHD BLA, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend, long term trend is transitioning from down to up, bounced off short term uptrend ribbon πŸ”ŽπŸ“ˆ

  • +14.7% Pacific Smiles Group (PSQ) - PSQ enters into a Scheme Implementation Deed with NDC

  • +12.8% 29METALS (29M) - No news, copper rose to 1 year highs on LME on Friday, is now challenging long term downtrend ribbon πŸ”ŽπŸ“ˆ

  • +10.1% Lotus Resources (LOT) - No news, uranium price up slightly on Friday, bouncing off short term uptrend ribbon, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend πŸ”ŽπŸ“ˆ

  • +10.0% Strike Energy (STX) - No news πŸ€”

  • +9.4% Firefly Metals (FFM) - Drilling hits high-grade copper zones well outside resource, copper rose to 1 year highs on LME on Friday, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends πŸ”ŽπŸ“ˆ

  • +9.4% Ora Banda Mining (OBM) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends πŸ”ŽπŸ“ˆ

  • +9.1% Boss Energy (BOE) - Quarterly Activities Report - March 2024, bounced off long term uptrend ribbon πŸ”ŽπŸ“ˆ

  • +8.0% Liontown Resources (LTR) - March 2024 Quarterly Activities and Cashflow Report, lithium carbonate price up over 5% today in China

  • +7.9% Deep Yellow (DYL) - No news, uranium price up slightly on Friday, bouncing off short term uptrend ribbon, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend πŸ”ŽπŸ“ˆ

  • +7.4% Bannerman Energy (BMN) - No news, uranium price up slightly on Friday, bouncing off short term uptrend ribbon, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend πŸ”ŽπŸ“ˆ

  • +7.4% Alligator Energy (AGE) - Quarterly Activities Report and 5B Cashflow - March 2024, uranium price up slightly on Friday

  • +7.4% Chalice Mining (CHN) - Lithium carbonate price up over 5% today in China helping boost some beaten down lithium and battery metals stocks

  • +7.1% Latin Resources (LRS) - Lithium carbonate price up over 5% today in China helping boost some beaten down lithium and battery metals stocks

  • +6.9% Zip Co (ZIP) - No news, today's rise sets rising troughs, closed back above short term uptrend ribbon, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend πŸ”ŽπŸ“ˆ

  • +6.6% Novonix (NVX) - Lithium carbonate price up over 5% today in China helping boost some beaten down lithium and battery metals stocks

  • +6.6% Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) - Lithium carbonate price up over 5% today in China helping boost some beaten down lithium and battery metals stocks

Trading lower


Broker Notes

Alkane Resources (ALK)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.25 from $1.00

Beach Energy (BPT)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.80

Car Group (CAR)

  • Upgraded to overweight from neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $39.00 from $36.00

Develop Global (DVP)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.30

Immutep (IMM)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.80 from $0.65

  • Initiated at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.00

Latin Resources (LRS)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.40 from $0.43

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $7.55 from $7.20

Mineral Resources (MIN)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $85.00 from $75.00

Nuix (NXL)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.50

Pointsbet Holdings (PBH)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.02 from $1.08

Perpetual (PPT)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $27.60 from $27.15

Resmed Inc (RMD)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $36.00 from $34.00

  • Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $32.85 from $31.33

  • Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $34.50 from $31.00

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $33.70 from $31.80

  • Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: US$200.00 from US$87.00

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: US$195.00 from US$180.00

Regis Resources (RRL)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.80 from $2.60

Reliance Worldwide Corporation (RWC)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.45


Scans

Top Gainers

Code Company Last % Chg
MSI Multistack Intern... $0.014 +250.00%
CBY Canterbury Resour... $0.046 +43.75%
MXO Motio Ltd $0.02 +33.33%
PVT Pivotal Metals Ltd $0.02 +33.33%
ERW Errawarra Resourc... $0.048 +29.73%
View all top gainers

Top Fallers

Code Company Last % Chg
KNB Koonenberry Gold Ltd $0.014 -30.00%
ZNO ZOONO Group Ltd $0.041 -25.46%
RIM Rimfire Pacific M... $0.024 -25.00%
FZR Fitzroy River Cor... $0.115 -23.33%
EE1 EARTHS Energy Ltd $0.013 -18.75%
View all top fallers

52 Week Highs

Code Company Last % Chg
MSI Multistack Intern... $0.014 +250.00%
CBY Canterbury Resour... $0.046 +43.75%
RCR Rincon Resources Ltd $0.086 +24.64%
CYM Cyprium Metals Ltd $0.037 +15.63%
PSQ Pacific Smiles Gr... $1.87 +14.72%
View all 52 week highs

52 Week Lows

Code Company Last % Chg
VTI Visioneering Tech... $0.11 -18.52%
OZZ OZZ Resources Ltd $0.035 -16.67%
EME Energy Metals Ltd $0.084 -14.29%
VN8 VONEX Ltd $0.012 -14.29%
KLI Killi Resources Ltd $0.03 -9.09%
View all 52 week lows

Near Highs

Code Company Last % Chg
CDA Codan Ltd $10.97 +1.67%
WA1 WA1 Resources Ltd $17.61 -2.22%
IXJ Ishares Global He... $135.10 -0.15%
DBI Dalrymple Bay Inf... $2.76 +0.36%
MXT Metrics Master In... $2.07 +0.98%
View all near highs

Relative Strength Index (RSI) Oversold

Code Company Last % Chg
NSR National Storage ... $2.17 +1.88%
WAM WAM Capital Ltd $1.493 +0.17%
WAX Wam Research Ltd $1.08 +0.94%
SGR The Star Entertai... $0.418 +7.05%
5GOV Vaneck 5-10 Year ... $50.24 +0.32%
View all RSI oversold

Written By

Carl Capolingua

Content Editor

Carl has over 30-years investing experience, helping investors navigate several bull and bear markets over this time. He is a well respected markets commentator who specialises in how the global macro impacts Australian and US equities. Carl has a passion for technical analysis and has taught his unique brand of price-action trend following to thousands of Aussie investors.

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