Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to fall, S&P 500 lower + M&A and earnings from ResMed, BHP and Newmont

Major US benchmarks slipped overnight as GDP data showed a slowdown in economic growth and an uptick in inflation, bond yields continue to push towards uncomfortable levels, retail investor sentiment flips bearish for the first time since November, Meta shares tumble more than 10% on a mixed first quarter result, BHP lobs a $56bn bid for Anglo American, ResMed tops earnings expectations and Newmont rallies 12% overnight on better-than-expected earnings.

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 recovers some of its early morning losses (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• S&P 500 lower overnight but finished well above session lows of -1.60%

• Bond yields up for a second straight session on hotter-than-expected US core PCE data (3.7% vs. 3.4% consensus)

• US 10-year yield nears highest level since last November and 2-year yield hit 5.0%

• Markets push back first rate cut to November after today's growth and inflation data (FT)

• Retail traders turn bearish for first time since November as AAII bull-bear spread flips negative (Bloomberg)

• Rubrik jumps 21% in latest strong IPO (Reuters)

• Investors withdrew record US$8.8bn from sustainable funds in Q1 (Reuters)

INTERNATIONAL STOCKS

• Meta's Q1 earnings miss triggers worries about AI spending at US tech megacaps (Bloomberg)

• Meta's Zuckerberg asks investors for patience on AI push that triggered concerns about spending (Bloomberg)

• Deutsche Bank Q1 profit highest in 11 years amid investment banking recovery (FT)

• Ford beats Q1 sales estimates on high commercial truck demand (Bloomberg)

CENTRAL BANKS

• BOJ feels heat from yen weakness, complicating further easy monetary policy (FT)

• ECB's Schnabel warns last mile on deflation may be bumpy (Reuters)

• Australian rates set to remain higher for longer as inflation remains sticky (The Aus)

GEOPOLITICS

• Blinken asks China to provide level playing field for American businesses (Reuters)

• Israel poised to evacuate civilians in Gaza ahead of planned Rafah offensive (Reuters)

• Hamas official suggests group willing to put down its weapons in exchange for a two-state solution using 1967 borders (AP)

ECONOMY

• US Q1 GDP grows at the slowest pace in nearly two years as surging imports and inventories weigh (Reuters)

• German GfK consumer confidence hit a two-year high (Reuters)

• South Korea Q1 GDP growth beats estimates (Reuters)

Hello, Kerry here. I’ve been working on a new email format for the Morning Wrap. Simply put – it’s what you’re reading now but directly in your inbox plus a few subtle tweaks. This format is designed to make the wrap a more email friendly experience. Personally, I find it hard to make changes to a daily routine – even if it’s for the better. That’s why we’re keen to gather a few testers (the more the merrier) to receive this new format and let us know how it feels. If you're an avid reader of the Morning Wrap and keen to lend a hand, please sign up below. You will receive this new format instead of the old for approximately two weeks.

Click here to signup

ASX TODAY

• ASX 200 set to open lower as inflation surprises (Aus data from Wed and US core PCE overnight) continue to push bond yields higher and drag global equities lower

• Markets remain in a cautious state following disappointing megacap tech earnings and stagflation worries sparked by the weaker-than-expected US GDP print

• Gold and copper miners set to rally as prices for the commodities continued to push higher alongside upbeat earnings and M&A activity ((more on that below)

• BHP confirms all-share proposal to Anglo American, valuing the multinational at approximately $56 billion (BHP) 

• Newmont soared 12.5% overnight after first quarter earnings exceeded analyst expectations – EPS beat consensus by 52% and FY guidance was reaffirmed (NEM)

• Qube could look to New Zealand for next acquisition (The Aus)

• ResMed set to rally (NYSE ADRs up 9.0% in after hours) after March quarter earnings beat analyst expectations – EPS beat consensus by 10.3% (RMD)

BROKER MOVES

A few broker notes have popped up since Wednesday market close.

• Beach Energy upgraded to Overweight from Neutral; target up to $1.85 from $1.80 (JPMorgan)

• Champion Iron upgraded to Buy from Overweight; target up to $7.95 from $7.76 (Jarden)

• Fortescue upgraded to Underperform from Sell; target up to $24.25 from $20 (CSLA)

• Lynas downgraded to Underperform from Buy; target cut to $6.85 from $7.20 (Jarden)

• Nick Scali upgraded to Buy from Overweight; target up to $15.40 from $13.87 (Jarden)

• Regis Resources downgraded to Sell from Neutral; target cut to $1.80 from $2.15 (UBS)

• Silver Lake upgraded to Buy from Hold with $1.70 target (Argonaut Securities)

• Southern Cross Electrical initiated Buy with $1.50 target (Shaw and Partners)

Companies trading ex-dividend: 

• Fri 26 April: None

• Mon 29 April: Acrow (ACF) – $0.029, 360 Capital Mortgage REIT (TCF) – $0.035

• Tue 30 April: None

• Wed 1 May: DRA Global (DRA) – $0.11

• Thu 2 May: WAM Strategic Value (WAR) – $0.022, Waterco (WAT) – $0.07, Acorn Capital (ACQ) – $0.028, Bank of Queensland (BOQ) – $0.17

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Boral (BLD) – $0.26, Horizon Oil (HZN) – $0.015, Cedar Woods Properties (CWP) – $0.08, Australian Clinical Labs (ACL) – $0.03

• Listing: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 11:30 am: Australia Producer Price Index (March Quarter)

• 1:00 pm: Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision

• 10:30 pm: US Core PCE Price Index (Mar)