Evening Wrap: ASX 200 piles on points as hopes of Middle East ceasefire sparks gold, base metals, and lithium stocks

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 138.8 points higher, up 1.62%.

The ASX 200 surged as reports of a tentative 60-day US-Iran ceasefire extension sent oil to a five-week low, reversing Thursday's losses almost in their entirety and triggering a sharp rotation back into gold and base metals stocks. Defence stocks also got a boost from White House rhetoric around domestic drone production funding.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap. Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 138.8 points higher at 8,731.7, 1.6% from its session low and smack–bang on its session high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers beat decliners by a convincing 233 to 50. For the week, the XJO finished up 74.7 points or 0.86% higher, 2.0% from its intraweek low and smack-bang on its intraweek high.

The headlines will shout the Gold Sub-Index's (XGD) (+4.5%) sharpest gain in weeks — but really, it only recouped just over half of yesterday's drubbing. Today's move was sparked by falling crude prices, which eased inflation expectations and benchmark bond yields. The later is the important bit, because it lowers the opportunity cost of holding precious metals.

COMEX gold futures gained 0.5% to US$4,555/oz and COMEX silver futures edged up 0.3% to US$76.14/oz. St Barbara (SBM) (+10.6%), Resolute Mining (RSG) (+8.0%), West African Resources (WAF) (+7.8%), and Perseus Mining (PRU) (+6.4%) all posted strong gains, with Newmont (NEM) (+3.8%) also higher.

Materials (XMJ) (+2.9%) was the second-best sector as base metals stocks recovered from Thursday's sharp selldown. Alcoa (AAI) (+4.6%), Sims (SGM) (+3.6%), Sandfire Resources (SFR) (+3.4%), South32 (S32) (+3.0%), BHP (BHP) (+2.9%), and Fortescue (FMG) (+2.4%) all advanced. Iron ore stocks were also firmer.

Lithium stocks logged another strong round of gains as GFEX lithium carbonate futures gained 1.2% to CNY 179,740/t and Australian spodumene concentrate rose 1.8% to US$2,610/t. Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) (+9.6%), PMET Resources (PMT) (+6.6%), Elevra Lithium (ELV) (+4.4%), Mineral Resources (MIN) (+3.8%), IGO (IGO) (+3.6%), and Pilbara Minerals (PLS) (+2.5%) all surged.

Critical minerals stocks with defence applications were also sharply higher — IperionX (IPX) (+9.6%), Chalice Mining (CHN) (+7.0%), and Metals X (MLX) (+3.6%) all advanced on the back of White House rhetoric around domestic drone production funding.

Real Estate (XPJ) (+1.9%) recovered as the aforementioned sharp overnight decline in benchmark US bond yields restored relative appeal to property trust income streams. Goodman Group (GMG) (+2.9%) and Abacus Storage King (ASK) (+2.9%) led the sector.

Information Technology (XIJ) (+1.7%) also bounced, with the same lower-yield dynamic lifting high P/E, long-duration growth stocks. Siteminder (SDR) (+6.7%), Megaport (MP1) (+5.4%), Codan (CDA) (+3.9%), and Macquarie Technology (MAQ) (+3.5%) were the standouts.

Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (+1.6%) was also underpinned by those same lower borrowing cost expectations and a strong run in travel stocks as ceasefire extension hopes raised the prospect of easing travel disruption. Flight Centre (FLT) (+8.2%), Virgin Australia (VGN) (+6.2%), and Qantas (QAN) (+3.2%) all surged. Lovisa (LOV) (+2.7%) and Harvey Norman (HVN) (+2.7%) also gained.

Defence stocks surged separately on reports the Trump administration is exploring funding deals with domestic drone manufacturers to boost production and cut costs. DroneShield (DRO) (+6.3%) gained at its AGM alongside the broader sector sentiment; Electro Optic Systems (EOS) (+16.2%) and Elsight (ELS) (+20.2%) also advanced, with the latter buoyed by a follow-on US customer order.

Utilities (XUJ) (-0.3%) and Energy (XEJ) (-0.1%) were the only sectors to finish in the red, both giving back defensive and oil-sensitive positioning respectively as the risk-on tone dominated.

ICE Brent crude futures fell a further 1.3% to US$91.50/bbl — its lowest level in five weeks — with oil and gas producers broadly softer. Viva Energy (VEA) (-1.9%), Yancoal Australia (YAL) (-1.7%), and Beach Energy (BPT) (-1.4%) were all weaker. AGL Energy (AGL) (-0.8%) was the Utilities laggard.

Communication Services (XTJ) (+0.2%), Consumer Staples (XSJ) (+0.7%), and Health Care (XHJ) (+0.9%) all gained modestly — defensives attracted less interest on a risk-on day but weren't actively sold. Within Communication Services, Seek (SEK) (+5.0%) and CAR Group (CAR) (+2.2%) advanced while Telstra (TLS) (-0.4%) edged lower. CSL (CSL) (-1.0%) remained the primary healthcare drag despite the sector's positive session.

Financials (XFJ) (+1.2%) bounced back but underperformed the benchmark for a sixth consecutive session — a persistent signal of cautious fund flows into the sector despite improving domestic rate expectations. Commonwealth Bank (CBA) (+2.2%) led on end-of-month rebalancing, with ANZ (ANZ) (+0.9%), National Australia Bank (NAB) (+0.6%), and Westpac (WBC) (+0.2%) also firmer.

Today's best ASX Top 300 gainers

Today's worst ASX Top 300 losers

ChartWatch

Nasdaq Composite Index

Analysis

Stairway to heaven! 🪽

You know how the futures were down when you read this bit yesterday? How there was all that doom and gloom... I mean, our poor OTP absolutely you-know-whatted itself!

And yet, the Comp did what the Comp does best in a bull market = 🚀!

And probably, you, me, and the other thirteen long-suffering readers of ChartWatch are the only persons in the world who aren't surprised by it!

For we know:

It is in the nature of stock prices to rise in a bull market!

It's that simple.

And rise they will... until supply — motivated supply (i.e., long black candles and or long upward pointing shadows), and lots of it (substantially above average volume) — arrives to spoil the party. 😔

Until then: enjoy bull market perfection! I.e., the manifestation in price that total consensus exists = owning stocks in the Comp is better than owning cash.

Demand.

Supply.

Price.

(The rest is noise!!! 🙉)

View

FRP (RP = Risk Position — it reflects my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in US stocks. So 1/2RP is 50%, 2/3RP is 67% and FRP is 100% 🪣).

Key levels

26708 is the key point of supply. 25739 is the closest point of demand, then there's the short term uptrend ribbon (presently 24473-25052). If the price closes back below this range, the supply-side is very likely back in control of the Comp's price.

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Analysis

Old Tin Pot or Zebra? 🦓

Probably both! 🤦 And neither is a good thing when it comes to headache-free investing.

It's like those Where's Wally books... Hey kids... Can you spot the zebra!? 🤣

There's a great deal of chop, chop, chop in the above chart, and the net result is that we closed today at roughly the same price as we did on 22 June last year.

Sure, there's been some dividends along the way, but for the most part, we're a few weeks shy from logging a 'lost year' for the Australian share market.

Particular emphasis on the word 'lost' if you've been sitting in Tech, Discretionary, or Healthcare stocks. 👎

Anyways, it's Friday, and neither of us likely could be bothered writing / reading any more about the OTP's technicals! We need a move here... one way or the other... just give us a move!

Today's candle was solid — there's no denying that — and we actually closed out the weekly candle at its high. ✅

But we need more! Fingers crossed next week is the week the OTP finally catches up to the Comp 🤞

View

And while we're waiting for that move, I remain 1/3RP 🪣 on the OTP (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in Australian stocks is 33%).

Key levels

The short- and long-term downtrend ribbons (presently 8686-8750) combine to represent the key zone of supply. Beyond that, it's the not so lucky 8888 level! Demand is the 8262-8379 zone. Below that... 😱!

(Glossary of acronyms! Old Tin Pot (OTP): S&P/ASX 200 | MOTN: More Often Than Not | FOMO: Fear Of Missing Out | HOFU: Holding On For Upside | BTD: Buy The Dip | STR: Sell The Rally | RP: Risk Position)

Economy

Today

• There aren't any major economic data scheduled for release today.

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +26.1% Tourism Holdings (THL) - BGH Capital and the Trouchet brothers upped their takeover offer to NZ$3.10 per share for the campervan business, with the consortium already holding a 19.9% stake and shareholders representing a further 16% indicating support for granting due diligence.

• +20.2% Elsight (ELS) - received a follow-on order from a US-based public safety sector customer valued at approximately US$2 million, more than four times the value of the initial US$460,000 purchase order placed in January 2026; the stock also benefited from strong defence sector sentiment following White House rhetoric around domestic drone production funding.

• +18.9% 4DMedical (4DX) - secured a commercial contract for its CT:VQ platform with SimonMed Imaging, operator of more than 170 outpatient imaging centres across the US.

• +12.2% Judo Capital (JDO) - priced a $750 million capital-relief securitisation backed by SME loans, expanded from an initially planned $500 million on strong investor demand, lifting its pro forma common equity tier 1 ratio to 13.2% from 12.6%.

• +6.3% DroneShield (DRO) - held its AGM and appeared to benefit from reports the Trump administration is exploring funding deals with domestic drone manufacturers to boost production, though talks remain ongoing and no formal announcement has been made.

• +5.5% Tabcorp (TAH) - Morgans upgraded to Buy from Accumulate, noting the stock's near-40% share price decline had made it appear materially undervalued.

• +3.5% HealthCo Healthcare and Wellness REIT (HCW) - Macquarie upgraded to Outperform from Neutral and lifted its price target to $0.83 from $0.67, following the REIT's announcement of a new operator for the Mount Private Hospital in WA.

• +1.2% Insurance Australia Group (IAG) - settled a major portion of its long-running Greensill litigation with no material impact on its financial position or FY26 earnings, removing one of the largest claims tied to the Greensill Capital collapse.

• +0.9% ANZ Group (ANZ) - announced it would appeal the New Zealand High Court's summary judgment against the bank in a class action over loan disclosure failures between 2015 and 2019.

Trading lower

• -16.2% IDP Education (IEL) - Macquarie downgraded to Underperform from Neutral and slashed its price target to $2.35 from $5.45, citing weak visa application trends, foreign exchange headwinds, and a persistent long-term downtrend in the stock.

• -6.9% Champion Iron (CIA) - Jarden downgraded to Neutral from Overweight and cut its price target to $5.00 from $5.50 following a review of the company's FY26 results released yesterday.

• -5.4% Dexus (DXS) - the NSW Supreme Court dismissed its application to halt the forced sale of its 27.3% stake in Australia Pacific Airports Corporation, which owns Melbourne and Launceston airports, after major superannuation funds alleged Dexus breached a three-decade-old shareholder agreement.

• -2.1% Bubs Australia (BUB) - guided to FY26 revenue of $105–115 million and underlying EBITDA of $4–8 million, noting higher freight costs, product availability constraints, and geopolitical disruption in the Middle East weighed on earnings.

Broker Moves

Advanced Innergy Holdings (AIH)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $1.45

ASX (ASX)

• Upgraded to overweight from neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $55.30

Aurum Resource (AUE)

• Initiated at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.30

Black Pearl Group (BPG)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.33 from $1.82

Brambles (BXB)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $23.80

Champion Iron (CIA)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.85 from $5.00

• Retained at hold at CLSA; Price Target: $4.60 from $4.90

• Downgraded to neutral from overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $5.00 from $5.50

Coles Group (COL)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $23.00

CSL (CSL)

• Downgraded to hold from buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $108.00 from $195.00

Endeavour Group (EDV)

• Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $2.80 from $3.30

Gorilla Gold Mines (GG8)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.00

Gemlife Communities Group (GLF)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $5.65 from $6.15

Graincorp (GNC)

• Upgraded to neutral from underweight at Jarden; Price Target: $5.40 from $5.50

HealthCo Healthcare and Wellness REIT (HCW)

• Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.83 from $0.67

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $0.70

HMC Capital (HMC)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $3.70

Insurance Australia Group (IAG)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $8.50

IDP Education (IEL)

• Downgraded to underperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.35 from $5.45

Imugene (IMU)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.25

JB Hi-Fi (JBH)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $85.00

Judo Capital Holdings (JDO)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.20

Mineral Resources (MIN)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $80.50 from $75.00

Paladin Energy (PDN)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $12.60

SHAPE Australia Corporation (SHA)

• Upgraded to buy from accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $8.65 from $8.62

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $8.85 from $8.50

Select Harvests (SHV)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $5.30

• Retained at hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $4.20 from $4.30

• Upgraded to neutral from underweight at Jarden; Price Target: $4.10 from $3.60

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.70 from $5.05

Tabcorp Holdings (TAH)

• Upgraded to buy from accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $1.07 from $1.20

Trajan Group Holdings (TRJ)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.90 from $1.00

Virgin Australia Holdings (VGN)

• Initiated at neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $2.85

WEB Travel Group (WEB)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.05 from $4.34

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.60 from $3.75

Scans