Evening Wrap: ASX 200 in sight of record as CBA jumps 7% on earnings, CSL slides another 4.6%

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 147.4 points higher, up +1.66%.

The ASX 200 pushed towards historic record highs as reporting season heavyweights drove a sharp risk-on rebound, led by the big banks. All but two major sector indices finished higher.

Financials (XFJ) (+3.4%) soared after Commonwealth B (+6.8%) lifted half-year cash profit 6% to $5.45bn and flagged a $2.35 interim dividend. The rest of the Big 4 were also firmer, National Australia Bank (NAB) (+3.4%) was the other standout.

CSL (-4.6%) weighed heavy on Healthcare (XHJ) (-2.5%) (again!) after its dismal first-half result, with net profit down -81%. Today's disappointing move is likely compounded by a messy CEO transition (announced yesterday and itself triggering a 5% fall in CSL's share price).

Stock-specific news, AGL (+11.7%) was another earnings winner, surging after its half-year result beat EBITDA expectations. James Hardie Industries (JHX) (+10.9%) also ripped higher on a strong quarterly update, while ASX (-1.7%) slid after CEO Helen Lofthouse quit abruptly.

In commodities, gold rebounded marginally by 0.4% and spot silver lifted about 1.9% in Asian trade, keeping the metals tape volatile but supportive for miners.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 147.4 points lower at 9014.8, 1.66% from its session low and 0% from its session high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers beat decliners by a healthy 196 to 82.

Fund flows: All hail the King!!! 👑

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) (+6.7%) is back… and it’s back in a BIG way. Well-received half year results helped it to its best one-day percentage gain since the bounce following Trump’s Tariff Tumult last April, but before that — since the pandemic volatility of March 2020. For the stats nerds, today’s CBA gain was the tenth best on record.

And that means some of the easiest index points the ASX 200, aka the Old Tin Pot, will ever enjoy. 😋

The rest of the big banks weren’t too shabby, either:

1. National Australia Bank (NAB) (+3.4%)

2. Macquarie Group (MQG) (+2.7%)

3. Westpac Banking Corp. (WBC) (+2.5%)

4. ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ) (+1.3%)

And that means even more of the easiest index points the OTP will ever enjoy…

These moves helped the Financials (XFJ) (+3.5%) to the top of the sector performance table today, it’s best gain since April last year also (and then since March 2020). “Swing” sector? Not any more… it looks like the big fund managers have decided… 💪

S&P-ASX 200 Financials Sector Index chart

What’s better than a massive swing back into ASX bank stocks? One that’s accompanied by ongoing flows into ASX Resources (XJR) (+1.7%) stocks. It just doesn’t get better — or more explosive in terms of index points — than this.

S&P-ASX 200 Resources Index chart

It means that even if sectors like Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (+1.0%), Information Technology (XIJ) (+0.7%), Communication Services (XTJ) (+0.1%), Health Care (XHJ) (-2.5%) are varying shades of lousy… We’re still going up.

And… There will be a point… Where even that lousy stuff will get dragged along for the ride — kicking and screaming! 😱

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

Nasdaq Composite Index

Analysis

A very subtle response to the short term trend ribbon during Tuesday’s candle — continuing on from the tickling of that same ribbon at the top of Monday’s candle.

Nothing untoward… very par for the course. ⛳

The candle: small black body, very modest retracement of the Friday-Monday combined range, roughly average volume… Not much to see there.

At worst, it suggests there’s some supply lurking about, but nothing that’s inconsistent with a “bit of profit taking” after two solid days of gains.

So, nothing has really changed with respect to the credibility of the bounce off the dynamic demand we’d typically associate with the long term ribbon.

But, similarly, neither has anything really changed with respect to the prevailing short term downtrend, falling peaks and falling troughs, and at best, mixed candles. ⚖️

How does the song go…? Clowns to the left, jokers to the right… and here I am… 🎵🎶

View

Still on the fence here… Shifting uncomfortably between the pickets! I am at 1/2RP portfolio risk limit 🪣 (RP = Risk Position — it reflects my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in US stocks. So 1/2RP is 50%, 2/3RP is 67% and FRP is 100%).

Key levels

22461 is the critical point of demand. If the Comp closes below that price, we can assume the supply side is very much in control. On a close below 21898 the long term uptrend is likely under significant pressure = ⚠️. 23722-24020 is the nearest critical static zone of supply, but the short term downtrend ribbon (presently 23305-23325) may also impede upside price action.

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Analysis

What a candle! 🤩

As technical analysts, we don’t care why a candle might look as good / bad as it does… vis-à-vis CBA + Big Banks heroics… simply care that it’s happening.

We believe that there is attached to every candle, a tiny narrative about what’s happening in the demand and supply environment — that when we combine each narrative, they grow into a biography of demand and supply for the security we’re analysing.

In short: As facepalm a moment today’s OTP move is… largely 4 stocks… I must still go with it. 🤦

It’s worth noting that I’ve been running the other three big banks, ANZ, NAB and WBC as +R uptrends in ChartWatch ASX Scans for a week now. So, it’s not like today’s move came as a total surprise.

I knew that if I was underweight risk / overweight cash — that it was smart to try and allocate some portfolio risk to the exact “Swing” sector that could blow my 50% cash weighting versus the benchmark index out of the water.

Nope, I didn’t have CBA, I couldn't, look at it’s chart — it just didn’t meet my criteria for +R prior to today.

Anyways, long story short… I am going to call a spade a spade, or in this case, today’s candle a big bloody emphatic demand-side showing of control.

To be fair, it’s not out of kilter with the control that the OTP was showing heading into 8979 — that pushed me from 1/2RP to 2/3RP in the first place (i.e., before the “whatever the hell that move was” back to the long term trend ribbon = 🤦🤦)!

The supply at 8944-79 has been consumed. There is a credible two-candle (now) push off the long term uptrend ribbon. The only fly in the ointment is today’s volume was hardly inspiring / indicative of removing a substantial amount of dangerous supply from the system.

That’s important — we want that supply out of the way… We want them back in cash… Where, when you think about it — they default back to latent demand! D > S = P ⬆️

View

Back to 2/3RP 🪣 for me (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in Australian stocks is 67%).

Yeah, I’m a bit sceptical about it... So, perhaps baby steps to get there. But!!! Do you realise just how close we are to making a new all time high (have you checked the charts of dozens of our so-called “blue-chips” from Healthcare, Consumer Discretionary, Telcos, and Technology lately…? 🤔)

Oh, Old Tin Pot… Just what are you up to!?

Key levels

8675-8683 is the closest point of demand, but far more important, is the dynamic demand we'd typically associate with the long term trend ribbon (presently 8620-8725). A close below 8620 would neutralise the present short and long term uptrends. 9110-9116 is the next key zone of supply.

***NEW VIDEO DROPPED — AND IT'S A BIGGY! 📺***

Economy

Today

• 12:30 AUS RBA Deputy Gov Hauser Speaks

  • Warned that inflation is still too high

  • RBA is prepared for further rate hikes as demand is pushing up against constrained capacity

Later this week

Thursday

• 00:30 USA January Non-Farm Payrolls

  • Employment Change: 70k m/m forecast vs 50k m/m in December

  • Average Hourly Earnings: +0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.3% m/m in December

  • Unemployment Rate: +4.4% forecast vs +4.4% in December

Friday

• 00:30 USA Weekly Unemployment Rate (222k forecast vs 231k in December)

• 02:30 AUS CB Leading Index m/m (+0.2% in December)

Saturday

• 00:30 USA January Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) (+0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.2% m/m in December)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +19.0% EQ Resources (EQR) – Non-compliance with ASX Listing Rule 7.1, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +14.8% Aussie Broadband (ABB) – ABB acquires AGL Telco assets & enters strategic partnership.

• +12.0% West Wits Mining (WWI) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +11.8% AGL Energy (AGL) – FY26 Half-Year Results Presentation.

• +10.9% James Hardie Industries (JHX) – Q3 FY26 Results Pack.

• +10.5% St Barbara (SBM) – Building Nova Scotia Exploration Target Pipeline and Progress on Completion of Simberi Transactions, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +8.8% Viridis Mining and Minerals (VMM) – Continued positive response to 10-Feb Appointment of Chief Financial Officer, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +8.7% Evolution Mining (EVN) – FY26 Half Year Results Presentation, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +8.7% Forrestania Resources (FRS) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +8.5% 4DMEDICAL (4DX) – No news.

• +8.1% Develop Global (DVP) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today.

• +7.2% Galan Lithium (GLN) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today.

• +6.8% Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) – 2026 Half Year Results Presentation, general strength across the broader Financials sector today.

• +6.3% Bellevue Gold (BGL) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +5.9% Predictive Discovery (PDI) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +5.7% Lake Resources (LKE) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today.

• +5.3% Boab Metals (BML) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +5.0% Emerald Resources (EMR) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

Trading lower

• -5.4% Bravura Solutions (BVS) – 1H26 Results Presentation.

• -5.2% Amplitude Energy (AEL) – Continued negative response to 10-Feb Elanora-1 exploration well update.

• -4.8% Meteoric Resources (MEI) – Pilot Plant Delivering Outstanding Recoveries and MREC.

• -4.7% Resmed Inc (RMD) – 144 Report of proposed sale of securities, general weakness across the broader HealthCare sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.6% CSL (CSL) – CSL Half Year Results Investor Presentation, general weakness across the broader HealthCare sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.0% G8 Education (GEM) – Continued negative response to 10-Feb Market Update, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

Broker Moves

Aussie Broadband (ABB)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $6.15

Amplitude Energy (AEL)

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $3.35 from $3.68

• Retained at buy at Euroz Hartleys; Price Target: $4.43

• Downgraded to overweight from buy at Jarden; Price Target: $2.67 from $3.40

Auckland International Airport (AIA)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $7.31 from $7.13

ALS (ALQ)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $27.30 from $23.80

Atlas Arteria (ALX)

• Downgraded to neutral from buy at Citi; Price Target: $4.80 from $5.70

Amotiv (AOV)

• Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $11.40 from $11.64

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $11.90 from $11.66

• Downgraded to accumulate from buy at Morgans; Price Target: $9.15 from $11.25

• Downgraded to sector perform from outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $11.50

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $11.40 from $11.00

AUB Group (AUB)

• Upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS; Price Target: $35.00

BHP Group (BHP)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $47.00

Beach Energy (BPT)

• Downgraded to trim from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $1.09 from $1.22

CAR Group (CAR)

• Upgraded to buy from accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $35.20 from $35.50

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $35.00 from $41.00

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)

• Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $137.00

Computershare (CPU)

• Upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $36.50 from $35.50

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $36.00

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $35.30 from $36.20

Coronado Global Resources Inc (CRN)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $0.53

CSL (CSL)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $188.00

Deterra Royalties (DRR)

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $3.95

Dexus Convenience Retail REIT (DXC)

• Upgraded to accumulate from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $3.00 from $3.10

Electro Optic Systems Holdings (EOS)

• Retained at speculative buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $12.72

Fortescue (FMG)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $20.00

Infratil (IFT)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $12.34

Iluka Resources (ILU)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $5.25

James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $37.20

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $17.70

Mineral Resources (MIN)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $68.00

Macquarie Group (MQG)

• Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $255.00 from $244.00

• Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $221.37 from $208.73

• Upgraded to buy from overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $240.00 from $220.00

• Retained at overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $236.00

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $255.00

News Corporation (NWS)

• Upgraded to buy from overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $46.80 from $48.60

Orora (ORA)

• Initiated at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $2.10

Orica (ORI)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $25.95

Region Group (RGN)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.75 from $2.70

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.28 from $2.26

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.45

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.35

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $2.20 from $2.15

Rio Tinto (RIO)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $162.00 from $140.00

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $160.00 from $140.00

South32 (S32)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $5.30

Sims (SGM)

• Retained at sell at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $17.00 from $15.90

Sonic Healthcare (SHL)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $21.80 from $29.40

Stepchange Holdings (STH)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.23 from $0.26

Transurban Group (TCL)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $16.10

Treasury Wine Estates (TWE)

• Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $4.85 from $4.80

• Downgraded to neutral from overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $5.40 from $5.60

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $5.10

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $4.75

Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $8.90

Woolworths Group (WOW)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $30.75

Wisetech Global (WTC)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $87.50 from $100.00

Xero (XRO)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $144.80

Scans