Evening Wrap: ASX 200 ekes gain as "Horrible Bosses" hits energy – WDS losses its CEO and BOE tumbles on Honeymoon miss

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 3.0 points higher, up 0.04%.

A welcome bounce in key consumer discretionary and tech stocks today, as resources took a back seat. The Energy sector continued to tumble, as Woodside Energy lost its boss and another boss — Boss Energy (BOE) — lost a quarter of its value following the release of a review of the company's flagship Honeymoon project.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 3.0 points higher at 8,588.2, 0.41% from its session low and smack–bang on its session high. Reflecting the late comeback in the benchmark, in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers snuck ahead of decliners by 146 to 127.

Fund flows: Out of energy... 🪫

+3 points... 34 point trading range... It's starting to look a lot like... Um, not Christmas! Nope, it's looking like the big fundies have checked out for 2025 and have taken early holidays! 🏖️

A few touch points... The odd beaten down tech and consumer discretionary stock bounced – Xero (XRO) (+2.5%), Wisetech Global (WTC) and JB HI-FI (JBH) (+1.6%) the best/most notable. Small moves relative to the respective carnage in each, but a win nonetheless!

Having said that, there were still ongoing casualties from the rotation out of high P/E / long duration: Nextdc (NXT) (-4.4%) and Pro Medicus (PME) (-2.2%).

Energy (XEJ) (-1.5%) was dismal again – not only due to traditional carbon-based energy producers like Woodside Energy Group (WDS) (-2.7%) (news today) – but also due to a wipeout in uranium stocks. They were dealt a severe blow as Boss Energy (BOE) (-24.6%) lost a quarter of its value after the release of a review of the company's flagship Honeymoon project "indicated an expected material and significant deviation" from its 2021 Enhanced Feasibility Study.

Stock Specific: Horrible BOSSes...

Not a great chart here. A dollar saved is a dollar earned. One does not have to go down with the ship... 🤦

Boss Energy has appeared over 30 times in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends Scan List since August

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Analysis

That looks like a pretty solid intraday chart (i.e., in the Markets section above) – closing smack-bang on the day’s high. It’s certainly a welcome show of demand-side interaction at the lows of the session – lows that were very nearly the same as yesterday’s – making it x2 for buy the dip activity.

It was also x2 tickles of the 8562 point of demand / low of the long term trend ribbon – which together are shaping up as the key “must-hold” level for the ASX 200… a.k.a. The Old Tin Pot.

But! (I think you were expecting those three letters to appear!), the candles are so small it would be overly optimistic to read too much into them.

Are we destined to remain trapped inside the trend ribbons for the rest of the year – therefore foregoing the Santa Claus Rally? It’s looking increasingly that way. 🥱

We’ll get what we get, of course, and I don’t mind the sideways grind so much, as I believe my risk settings are appropriate. I also don’t mind it given my view the next break – up or down – is likely to be decisive. Good things come to those who wait! 🧘

There’s very little I can add to the broader technical narrative based on today’s price action. Volume, however, was interestingly above average. A bit of cash came in off the sidelines to buy the early supply that likely followed on from negative US leads.

But! Without much price action to link this back to in the form of today’s tiny candle – it probably doesn’t mean a great deal (though if I squint: above average volume + downward pointing shadow = usually decent for P⬆️! 😉).

View

I am holding at 1/3RP (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit (Risk Position) for my investments in Australian stocks is 33%) — pausing the transition to 1/2RP triggered on Friday until I see at least a couple more strong demand-side candles and/or a close above the new point of supply at 8702.

Key levels

8547-8562 is the new closest zone of demand. A close below this price would confirm the supply side is back in control of the ASX 200's price. In theory though, the short term and long term trend ribbons may now begin to act as a zone of dynamic demand (presently 8550-8663). The next key zone of supply is the old demand zone at 8731-8738, and it's 8809-8843 above that.

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major economic data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Friday

• 00:30 USA November Core CPI

Saturday

• 02:00 USA November Existing Home Sales (4.15 million forecast vs 4.10 million in October)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +15.5% Bapcor (BAP) – Chris Wilesmith appointed as CEO and Managing Director.

• +13.0% The Star Entertainment Group (SGR) – Continued positive response to 17-Dec Appointment of new Chairman and Board changes.

• +11.2% 29METALS (29M) – No news, general strength across the broader Copper sector today.

• +10.2% Sovereign Metals (SVM) – No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• +7.7% Orezone Gold Corp. (ORE) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.7% Challenger Gold (CEL) – No news.

• +6.8% Arafura Rare Earths (ARU) – No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• +6.2% Metal Powder Works (MPW) – Continued positive response to 17-Dec MPW signs powder partnership with Austal.

• +6.1% Ora Banda Mining (OBM) – Exploration Results Extend Sand King Mineralisation, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.7% Betmakers Technology Group (BET) – Stake selects BetMakers to power global racing expansion, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.1% Chalice Mining (CHN) – No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• +5.1% Austal (ASB) – Austal Defence Australia awarded LCM Design & Build Contract.

• +5.0% EDU Holdings (EDU) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -24.6% Boss Energy (BOE) – Honeymoon Update and Honeymoon Update Presentation, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today.

• -15.9% Dateline Resources (DTR) – No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and long term trend is transitioning from up to down 🔎📉

• -10.7% Radiopharm Theranostics (RAD) – RAD announces establishment of At-The-Market Equity Facility and Non-compliance with ASX Listing Rule 7.1.

• -8.8% Viridis Mining and Minerals (VMM) – No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and long term trend is transitioning from up to down 🔎📉

• -8.5% Bannerman Energy (BMN) – No news, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today.

• -7.8% Deep Yellow (DYL) – No news, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today.

• -5.9% Lotus Resources (LOT) – Consolidation/Split, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today.

• -5.5% Audinate Group (AD8) – No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, one of the most Featured (highest conviction) stocks in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -5.3% Elevate Uranium (EL8) – No news, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today.

Broker Moves

Atlas Arteria (ALX)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $5.09

American Rare Earths (ARR)

• Initiated at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.65

Boss Energy (BOE)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $2.25 from $3.50

Comet Ridge (COI)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.21

• Retained at speculative buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.25

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $0.25

Cedar Woods Properties (CWP)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $10.00 from $9.70

• Retained at buy at Euroz Hartleys; Price Target: $9.89

• Retained at buy at Moelis Australia; Price Target: $10.09 from $9.52

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $9.40 from $9.35

Delta Lithium (DLI)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.35 from $0.75

DroneShield (DRO)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.40 from $5.30

Dexus (DXS)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $7.80

EBR Systems Inc (EBR)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.43

Elsight (ELS)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.60 from $2.00

Freightways Group (FRW)

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $12.84 from $12.64

Graincorp (GNC)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $7.60 from $8.50

• Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $9.00 from $9.30

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.30 from $8.80

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $9.35 from $9.80

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $9.50 from $10.75

Humm Group (HUM)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.87 from $0.81

Insurance Australia Group (IAG)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.10

Integral Diagnostics (IDX)

• Initiated at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $2.10

Immutep (IMM)

• Initiated at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.50

Karoon Energy (KAR)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.65

Meteoric Resources NL (MEI)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.39

Rio Tinto (RIO)

• Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $143.40 from $144.00

• Retained at overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $150.00 from $138.00

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $132.00

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $140.00

Sandfire Resources (SFR)

• Retained at buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $19.50 from $17.20

• Upgraded to underweight from sell at Jarden; Price Target: $14.50 from $11.80

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $16.90

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $18.00

St George Mining (SGQ)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.20

Saluda Medical, Inc. (SLD)

• Initiated at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.80

Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $34.00

Treasury Wine Estates (TWE)

• Upgraded to neutral from sell at Citi; Price Target: $4.80 from $5.11

• Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $5.60 from $7.70

• Downgraded to hold from buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $5.20 from $8.00

• Downgraded to neutral from overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $5.00 from $6.70

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.00

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $5.10 from $6.45

• Downgraded to lighten from hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.00 from $6.50

Woodside Energy Group (WDS)

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $33.50

wrkr (WRK)

• Initiated at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.16

Zeotech (ZEO)

• Initiated at speculative buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.15

Scans