Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to snap three-day losing streak, S&P 500 and Nasdaq climb as software stocks bounce

ASX 200 futures are up 63 pts (+0.70%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks bounced and closed at session highs

• Broad gains across the board, with strength nearly everywhere offsetting pockets of softness in Energy and Healthcare

• Software stocks bounced after Anthropic's enterprise agent event highlighted partnerships and collaboration with companies instead of being an outright replacement

Let's dive in.

Overnight Summary

Wed 25 Feb 26, 8:24am (AEST)

Name	Value	% Chg
Major Indices
S&P 500	6,890	+0.77%
Dow Jones	49,175	+0.76%
NASDAQ Comp	22,864	+1.04%
Russell 2000	2,653	+1.24%
Country Indices
Canada	33,970	+0.57%
China	4,117	+0.87%
Germany	24,986	-0.02%
Hong Kong	26,590	-1.82%
India	82,226	-1.28%
Japan	57,321	+0.87%
United Kingdom	10,681	-0.04%

Name	Value	% Chg
Commodities (USD)
Gold	5,162.11	-1.25%
Copper	5.9002	+2.07%
WTI Oil	66.25	-0.12%
Currency
AUD/USD	0.7059	+0.04%
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin (USD)	64,240	-0.58%
Ethereum (AUD)	2,623	-0.70%
Miscellaneous
US 10 Yr T-bond	4.033	+0.10%
VIX	19.38	-7.80%

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 higher, closed at best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks higher and closed at best levels

• S&P 500 recovered almost the entirety of yesterday’s 1.04% dip, now trading back above the 50-day moving average

• Relatively broad gains and participation, with S&P 500 trading in-line with its Equal-weighted counterpart

• Software stocks bounced, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF up 1.9% (but still down ~4% in the last three sessions), with some reprieve from Anthropic's enterprise agent event – big theme here was partnerships and collaboration with companies instead of replacing them

• Still a lot of moving pieces, Meta announced a massive deal with AMD, Nvidia earnings due tomorrow, uncertainty around Trump's trade policies and still elevated expectations for US-Iran conflict

• Hedge funds boost tech stock exposure, reversing recent selling trend (RT)

• Traders accumulate put options on Invesco leveraged loan ETF, betting on continuation of software selloff (BBG)

• SpaceX's anticipated mega IPO may overshadow other companies' listing plans (BBG)

• Bitcoin faces steepest monthly decline since 2022 crypto collapse amid rising geopolitical risks (BBG)

• Indian IT stocks decline further amid concerns over AI's impact on service contracts (BBG)

• Japanese yen weakens after report of PM Takaichi's concerns regarding further BOJ rate hikes (BBG)

STOCKS

• Anthropic held an enterprise AI event, releasing new plugins to help automate work in areas including HR, IB, and design (BBG)

• Meta announced it would spend over $100bn to buy AMD chips, using up to 6GW of compute over next five years, gives Meta option to buy up to ~10% of AMD (WSJ)

• Apple to increase US domestic production amid geopolitical tensions (WSJ)

• Novo Nordisk to slash GLP-1 list prices by up to 50% in US (CNBC)

• Waymo to extend robotaxi service to four more cities: Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and Orlando (AP)

• Warner Bros. says Paramount made higher bid, board to weigh offer against Netflix deal (CNBC)

• Coinbase has launched 24/5 commission-free stock and ETF trading for all US users (WSJ)

• JPMorgan sees significant rise in Q1 trading revenue (BBG)

• Moody's warns gap in US accounting rules allowing Big Tech to conceal tens of billions of AI data center liabilities (FT)

• Uber acquires parking app SpotHero to broaden its service offerings and user engagement (BBG)

TARIFFS & TRADE

• Trump's new global tariff face economist skepticism over balance of payments crisis claims (RT)

• Trump administration seeks new legal basis for tariffs after Supreme Court rejection (BBG)

• Trump expected to focus on US economy at tonight's State of the Union Address (BBG)

• Trump to announce data centre energy deals during State of the Union (POL)

• China implements export restrictions on Japanese companies amid escalating diplomatic tensions (FT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Chicago Fed's Goolsbee reaffirms policymakers should be sure inflation is heading back to target before more cuts (CNBC)

• Fed's Cook says AI will lead to large changes in economy, sees possible short-term uptick in unemployment (Reuters)

GEOPOLITICS

• Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Ravanchi says Tehran is ready to reach deal with US as soon as possible (USN)

• China to send Iran supersonic aircraft carrier-killing missiles amid tension with US (FN)

• Ukraine peace efforts falter as war enters its fifth year, with no clear resolution in sight (BBG)

ECONOMY

• Early data from China's lunar new year holiday shows modest consumer spending increase (BBG)

• South Korean business sentiment flips positive for March, driven by strong export performance and robust chip sales (YH)

• European car sales decline in January despite sustained demand for electric vehicles (BBG)

ASX TODAY

Another hectic results day, a few more big hitters compared to Tuesday, with Fortescue, Woolworths and Wisetech due to report. To manage the chaos of results, we're moving the usual coverage from here to the Live Blog.

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Lithium: Chinese lithium carbonate futures was up around 7% when our market closed yesterday, finished the Chinese session at limit up (10.5% to 164,120 yuan a tonne). Prices are turning up after a ~20% drawdown from the 26-Jan high of 189,440 yuan a tonne.

• Monadelphous: Very strong 1H26 result on Tues, with most key metrics tracing 3-15% ahead of consensus. FY26 revenue guidance of ~30% beat expectations of ~28%, margin commentary also upbeat. The stock rallied as much as 20%, only to close the session up just 5.9%. Now, analysts are all downgrading the stock (likely due to valuation) but upgrading target prices (off the strong result). MND is up 112% in the last twelve months. Will be interesting where it goes from here.

• Cedar Woods: Also another strong reporter, with 1H26 tracking well-ahead of consensus and FY26 NPAT guidance upgraded to 30-35% vs. prior guidance of at least 20%. This marks the company’s third guidance upgrade since its Aug-25 result (from 10% → 15% → “at least 20%” to now 30-35%). The stock opened 9.4% higher, only to finish 2.1% higher. CWP shares have been moving sideways since Oct-25, but up 55% in the last twelve months. 

BROKER MOVES

• ARB Corp upgraded to Buy from Accumulate; but target lowered to $31.85 from $32 (MORG)

• Coronado Global upgraded to Outperform from Underperform; target up to $0.50 from $0.40 (MQG)

• Dalrymple Bay downgraded to Neutral from Outperform; target up to $5.45 from $5.33 (MQG)

• HMC Capital upgraded to Outperform from Neutral; but target lowered to $3.96 from $4.63 (MQG)

• Monadelphous Group downgraded to Hold from Buy; target up to $33.85 from $29 (MORG)

• Monadelphous Group downgraded to Neutral from Outperform; target up to $33.95 from $31 (MQG)

• Monadelphous Group downgraded to Neutral from Overweight; target up to $32.80 from $31.70 (JARD)

• Scentre Group upgraded to Neutral from Underperform; target up to $3.73 from $3.64 (MQG)

• Viva Energy downgraded to Neutral from Overweight; target cut to $2.00 from $2.20 (JPM)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Wed 25 Feb: Australian Finance Group (AFG) – $0.047, Codan (CDA) – $0.195, FSA Group (FSA) – $0.035, Genesis Energy (GNE) – $0.062, Hearts and Minds Investments (HM1) – $0.095, Maxiparts (MXI) – $0.042, Mystate (MYS) – $0.12, Ooh!Media (OML) – $0.04, Peter Warren Automotive Holdings (PWR) – $0.03, Telstra Group (TLS) – $0.105, The Lottery Corporation (TLC) – $0.08

• Thu 26 Feb: Beach Energy (BPT) – $0.01, BSP Financial Group (BFL) – $0.37, Gryphon Capital Income Trust (GCI) – $0.011, Ignite (IGN) – $0.03, IPH (IPH) – $0.19, JB Hi-Fi (JBH) – $2.10, Medibank Private (MPL) – $0.083, Mitchell Services (MSV) – $0.04, Perpetual Credit Income Trust (PCI) – $0.006, Pro Medicus (PME) – $0.32, Shape Australia Corporation (SHA) – $0.14, Stanmore Resources (SMR) – $0.127, Universal Store Holdings (UNI) – $0.26, Whitehaven Coal (WHC) – $0.04

• Fri 27 Feb: AMP (AMP) – $0.022, Argo Global Listed Infrastructure (ALI) – $0.045, Australian United Investment Company (AUI) – $0.17, Carlton Investments (CIN) – $0.47, Diversified United Investment (DUI) – $0.07, Fiducian Group (FID) – $0.255, Lendlease Group (LLC) – $0.062, Metrics Income Opportunities Trust (MOT) – $0.009, Metrics Master Income Trust (MXT) – $0.012, Metrics Real Estate Multi-Strategy Fund (MRE) – $0.007, Orora (ORA) – $0.05, Pengana International Equities (PIA) – $0.014, Prime Financial Group (PFG) – $0.008

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: Advance ZincTek (ANO), Centuria Capital (CNI) 

• Earnings: Fortescue (FMG), Woolworths Group (WOW), Wisetech Global (WTC), Yancoal Australia (YAL), Vault Minerals (VAU), Steadfast Group (SDF), L1 Group (L1G), Flight Centre Travel Group (FLT), DroneShield (DRO), Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP), Tabcorp Holdings (TAH), Silex Systems (SLX), Generation Development Group (GDG), Centuria Capital Group (CNI), Sunrise Energy Metals (SRL), Helia Group (HLI), MAAS Group Holdings (MGH), Service Stream (SSM), IRESS (IRE), Elevra Lithium (ELV), SiteMinder (SDR), Amplitude Energy (AEL), Bapcor (BAP), Duratec (DUR), Accent Group (AX1), IVE Group (IGL), Energy One (EOL), Resimac Group (RMC)

• IPOs: Macallum New Energy (MNE)

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 11:30 am: Australia inflation (Ests: 3.8% vs. 3.7% prior)

• 1:00 pm: Trump State of Union Speech